2015 Tour de France: Stage 1, Utrecht-Utrecht

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Have to say I find the concensus that non of the GC favourites will get a top 10 to be very odd. Have to go a long way to find a Tour TT where the big boys were not a factor. 2010 Tour when the wind switched is the first I can find

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Re:

Quintana will start at 15:00:00, and Pinot at 15:47:00.

Thanks for the info

 

[Domulec]

Re: Re:

Temperatures up to 41 degrees have been predicted for this Saturday. Which country is the Tour starting again?

Anyway,was planning on going, but sure as hell not gonna go there now, standing in a huge crowd for hours while it's gonna be 50+ degrees in the sun

I'm still wondering if I should go. It is pretty close to where I live and it seems like an opportunity that won't return anytime soon, but with the heat and the crowds it's gonna be pretty unpleasant to be there.

Go early and find a spot in the shadow. That is what I will be doing at least.

Went on a ride today and encountered Orica, FDJ and BMC, all training on their time-trial bikes.. It's a start

 

[Miburo]

Re:

Have to say I find the concensus that non of the GC favourites will get a top 10 to be very odd. Have to go a long way to find a Tour TT where the big boys were not a factor. 2010 Tour when the wind switched is the first I can find

Cause 3 dutch will be in the top 10 for sure.

 

[Velolover2]

Do the team decide in which order they want their riders to start in? And why are Froome and Contador almost last on the list? Why not a Bora-Argon rider or something? It's certainly not a random draw. By normal logic, Valverde should start as the 4th to last since he was 4th last year.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Spartacus to take his 6th TdF prologue win.
Dumoulin 2nd
Malori 3rd
Will be extremely close, but it will mainly stay between these 3

 

[franic]

Re:

Do the team decide in which order they want their riders to start in? And why are Froome and Contador almost last on the list? Why not a Bora-Argon rider or something? It's certainly not a random draw. By normal logic, Valverde should start as the 4th to last since he was 4th last year.

The answer to your first question is yes, because I remember Lance decided together with Bruyneel (and Ferrari behind the scenes) when he wanted to start in Monaco ITT at 2009 Tour.

 

[Brullnux]

If it's really hot then I see Domoulin doing very well. He does well in hot weather, see the TDU earlier this year. Malori is strong when hot too, as is Martin, although this is probably slightly too short for Martin. Cancellara is also good. I think it's between Martin and Domoulin fog he win, and Malori and Cancellara for third.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Do the team decide in which order they want their riders to start in? And why are Froome and Contador almost last on the list? Why not a Bora-Argon rider or something? It's certainly not a random draw. By normal logic, Valverde should start as the 4th to last since he was 4th last year.

It's the order of the startlist - 21x, 20x, 19x, 18x till 4x, 3x, 2x, 1x. So the teams get 9 time slots, and they can decide who starts when. So in other words every Sky rider will start right after a Saxo rider and right before a FDJ. Don't ask me why Sky and Tinkoff are the 4th and 5th teams on the startlist though, makes no sense to me.

 

[franic]

Re:

Spartacus to take his 6th TdF prologue win.
Dumoulin 2nd
Malori 3rd
Will be extremely close, but it will mainly stay between these 3

I think Rohan Dennis will do something good. He seems to have spent a lot of time training for this day.

From CyclingNews:

I think it was a 5am wake-up, which was a bit rough the day after the Tour of Belgium, but it meant that I got to see it with next to no traffic, and since then, I've had a video of it and I've looked over it," Dennis told reporters in Utrecht on Friday. "I checked it out again yesterday just to refresh the memory, because the video and real life can look a little different.
[…]
This whole season I've prepared for this time trial, and every time trial I've gone into this year, whether I'm tired or fresh, I've gone at 100 percent, just to learn more about my body," he said. "Things have come along really well. At the Dauphiné in the team time trial I felt super strong and since then all I've been doing is preparing for stage 1 and the team time trial on stage 9."

 

[blackmamba]

Since Martin has prepared for this I expect him to win relative comfortable considering its only 13km.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Since Martin has prepared for this I expect him to win relative comfortable considering its only 13km.

the lenght is his disadvatnage not an advantage

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Quintana didn't want to be caught by Contador?

might be , more likely is evening thunderstroms tho. (you never know)

 

[blackmamba]

Re: Re:

Since Martin has prepared for this I expect him to win relative comfortable considering its only 13km.

the lenght is his disadvatnage not an advantage

Not arguing with that the distance is his disadvantage ofcouse but all I mean is since he know the distance is so short and have prepared for it like he said for a long time I expect him to win regardless and relative comfortably aswell.

 

[concorde]

Re:

Spartacus to take his 6th TdF prologue win.
Dumoulin 2nd
Malori 3rd
Will be extremely close, but it will mainly stay between these 3

Lol, Tony Martin will win this easy..

This is the first stage, everyone has fresh legs.. Thats why no GC contender will be in top 10 also. With fresh legs this is between Spartacus and Panzerwagen for sure.

 

[cineteq]

GC prediction

Froome
Nibali
Contador
Quintana

 

[concorde]

Re: Re:

Since Martin has prepared for this I expect him to win relative comfortable considering its only 13km.

the lenght is his disadvatnage not an advantage

Not arguing with that the distance is his disadvantage ofcouse but all I mean is since he know the distance is so short and have prepared for it like he said for a long time I expect him to win regardless and relative comfortably aswell.

Someone has planned for this time trial all season -> http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/dennis-all-season-ive-prepared-for-this-tour-de-france-time-trial

Maybe the dark horse in this race..

 

[concorde]

Also interesting is how far the sprinters will be behind the yellow jersey after stage 1. Now that time bonuses is back, a sprinter may get the yellow jersey first week.

I predict this order of sprinters in time trial:
1.Sagan
2.Boasson
3.Bennati (leadout, but still)
4.Kristoff
5.Matthews
6.Degenkolb
7.Cavendish
8.Greipel
9.Demare
10.Bouhanni
10.Coquard
..

 

[concorde]

betsson.com odds
Tour de France 2015 - 1st. stage: Winner odds:

Tony Martin 1.65
Tom Dumoulin 4.00
Fabian Cancellara 8.00
Adriano Malori 18.50
Rohan Dennis 25.00
Matthias Brandle 28.00
Michal Kwiatkowski 28.00
Alex Dowsett 29.00
Peter Sagan 45.00
Geraint Thomas 45.00
Wilco Kelderman 45.00
Chris Froome 45.00
Lars Boom 65.00
Jonathan Castroviejo 65.00
Stephen Cummings 65.00

I placed $100 on Dennis Rohan, dont think he will win though.. Im pretty sure he will lead at first check point though

 

[SeriousSam]

Froome starting 1 minute behind Contador in a prologue like time trial? Might just be a Lance Jan moment.

 

[concorde]

Re:

Froome starting 1 minute behind Contador in a prologue like time trial? Might just be a Lance Jan moment.

13.7 km.. That aint a prologue.. Its an 18 minute power test where watts are not divided on weight, but on technic and aerodynamics..

Also ive never ever seen a 110+ rpm rider win anything less than 20km ITT

 

[ILovecycling]

betsson.com odds
Tour de France 2015 - 1st. stage: Winner odds:

Tony Martin 1.65
Tom Dumoulin 4.00
Fabian Cancellara 8.00
Adriano Malori 18.50
Rohan Dennis 25.00
Matthias Brandle 28.00
Michal Kwiatkowski 28.00
Alex Dowsett 29.00
Peter Sagan 45.00
Geraint Thomas 45.00
Wilco Kelderman 45.00
Chris Froome 45.00
Lars Boom 65.00
Jonathan Castroviejo 65.00
Stephen Cummings 65.00

I placed $100 on Dennis Rohan, dont think he will win though.. Im pretty sure he will lead at first check point though

stupid odds on Tony

 

[blackmamba]

betsson.com odds
Tour de France 2015 - 1st. stage: Winner odds:

Tony Martin 1.65
Tom Dumoulin 4.00
Fabian Cancellara 8.00
Adriano Malori 18.50
Rohan Dennis 25.00
Matthias Brandle 28.00
Michal Kwiatkowski 28.00
Alex Dowsett 29.00
Peter Sagan 45.00
Geraint Thomas 45.00
Wilco Kelderman 45.00
Chris Froome 45.00
Lars Boom 65.00
Jonathan Castroviejo 65.00
Stephen Cummings 65.00

I placed $100 on Dennis Rohan, dont think he will win though.. Im pretty sure he will lead at first check point though

Find yourself a new bookie to place bets (those odds arent the best on the market) just sayin. Gonne be interesting to see I myself dont believe in Dennis for the win but that doesnt mean it cant happen I just dont see it happen.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Froome starting 1 minute behind Contador in a prologue like time trial? Might just be a Lance Jan moment.

13.7 km.. That aint a prologue.. Its an 18 minute power test where watts are not divided on weight, but on technic and aerodynamics..

Also ive never ever seen a 110+ rpm rider win anything less than 20km ITT

forget about that

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What differences do you expect between the Big 4? I think Quintana could lose about 30-40 seconds to Froome. Contador and Nibali should be much closer (maybe 10-15 seconds behind Alien).