2015 Tour de France Stage 6: Abbeville-Le Havre 191.5km

[sir fly]

It's not exactly a climb, it's a high speed rise finishing on a false flat.

 

[Baldinger]

It seems like the wind will come from north and give the riders a cross tail wind, as I see it.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

It's not exactly a climb, it's a high speed rise finishing on a false flat.

I don't agree with that. If it came at the end of a fast straight, with the peloton starting it at 60km/h it would be.

But it doesn't; according to the map it looks like most of the climb comes after a tight corner, so everyone will have to accelerate up it from a relatively low starting speed. That massively favours the puncheur/climber types over the sprinters.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

It's not exactly a climb, it's a high speed rise finishing on a false flat.

I don't agree with that. If it came at the end of a fast straight, with the peloton starting it at 60km/h it would be.

But it doesn't; according to the map it looks like most of the climb comes after a tight corner, so everyone will have to accelerate up it from a relatively low starting speed. That massively favours the puncheur/climber types over the sprinters.

3-4% won't be enough to shake off the heavyweights.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

It's not exactly a climb, it's a high speed rise finishing on a false flat.

Those gradients hardly look like a false flat. And 850m is well enough a long wall to make the approaching speeds decrease drastically, giving room for attacks. The stage is not easy either, and remember how fast riders come into Valkenburg only to bonk on the first slopes of the Cauberg, which is no more than one and a half this climb is. We'll see.

3-4% won't be enough to shake off the heavyweights.

It averages 7% and reaches 12%, though.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

It's not exactly a climb, it's a high speed rise finishing on a false flat.

Those gradients hardly look like a false flat. And 850m is well enough a long wall to make the approaching speeds decrease drastically, giving room for attacks. The stage is not easy either, and remember how fast riders come into Valkenburg only to bonk on the first slopes of the Cauberg, which is no more than one and a half this climb is. We'll see.

3-4% won't be enough to shake off the heavyweights.

It averages 7% and reaches 12%, though.

Yes...
Interesting, really.
Positioning will be vital through the zig-zag. The GC crowd at the front won't be helpful.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

It's not exactly a climb, it's a high speed rise finishing on a false flat.

Those gradients hardly look like a false flat. And 850m is well enough a long wall to make the approaching speeds decrease drastically, giving room for attacks. The stage is not easy either, and remember how fast riders come into Valkenburg only to bonk on the first slopes of the Cauberg, which is no more than one and a half this climb is. We'll see.

3-4% won't be enough to shake off the heavyweights.

It averages 7% and reaches 12%, though.

If we're lucky we might get to see the next chapter in Valverde v Rodriguez. They will probably get over the climb first with a few seconds lead and then stubbornly sit up and refuse to work with each other on the false flat to the finish, allowing someone else to take the win.

 

[Jspear]

When I first saw this stage I had Matthews for the win. I'll go with Sagan for the win.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

It's not exactly a climb, it's a high speed rise finishing on a false flat.

Those gradients hardly look like a false flat. And 850m is well enough a long wall to make the approaching speeds decrease drastically, giving room for attacks. The stage is not easy either, and remember how fast riders come into Valkenburg only to bonk on the first slopes of the Cauberg, which is no more than one and a half this climb is. We'll see.

3-4% won't be enough to shake off the heavyweights.

It averages 7% and reaches 12%, though.

Yes...
Interesting, really.
Positioning will be vital through the zig-zag. The GC crowd at the front won't be helpful.

That's a good point and could support the idea of Froome going for it and trying to gain a few seconds on his rivals - especially with the time bonuses.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

Also, if he can gap the others, it will further send the message to be afraid, very afraid, when the real climbs begin. Contador in particular would not want to be embarrassed again.

I fear the moment Froome attacks at the first MTF will evoke this response

 

[Miburo]

Froome won't attack here, not hard enough. I think, with froome you never know.

I even doubt froome will go full genius tuesday, i think he'll do that on the plateau honestly. I don't see who can beat Sagan here, he's prob the best rider atm in the peloton together with Martin. But I guess somehow he'll end up second again

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Froome will take it.
But I hope Coquard finds his way to the line first.

 

[Happy dude]

Deg. Although I've been wrong every single stage so far

 

[Lance Armstrong]

I go with Matthews at 40:1.

Otherwise Sagan vs Degenkolb. And Avermaet in Top 5 for sure.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

Froome will take it.
But I hope Coquard finds his way to the line first.

We're in syntony! Allez Bryan!

 

[sir fly]

Liege - Seraing 2012 comes to mind.

 

[Arredondo]

Such a shame Canc isn't here anymore. He would have surprised a lot of guys here.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re:

Degenkolb.
Would it be too much?

No.

 

[SeriousSam]

Hasn't Sagan got the better of Degenkolb in every terrain so far?

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Degenkolb.
Would it be too much?

No.

It shouldn't, but Degenkolb doesn't look that good to me. Today he wasn't great and yesterday although he won the sprint for second and was strong on the cobbles, in the slightly uphill intermediate sprint he looked terrible, really slow compared to the other ones. Degenkolb of March/April then he would be favourite, but July? Not too sure.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re:

Hasn't Sagan got the better of Degenkolb in every terrain so far?

Like yesterday for example?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

Degenkolb.
Would it be too much?

No.

It shouldn't, but Degenkolb doesn't look that good to me. Today he wasn't great and yesterday although he won the sprint for second and was strong on the cobbles, in the slightly uphill intermediate sprint he looked terrible, really slow compared to the other ones. Degenkolb of March/April then he would be favourite, but July? Not too sure.

I would not read too much into one stage... I say 50/50

 

[DFA123]

Can't see Degenkolb doing anything. Even if he manages to make it over the steeper km somewhere near the front, there is no chance of recovery before the sprint. He'll have used too much to get over the climb to win the sprint for the line.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Hasn't Sagan got the better of Degenkolb in every terrain so far?

Like yesterday for example?

Sagan worked a lot for contador yesterday, you can't compare there performances

 

[MatParker117]

Two for Purito?