2015 Tour de France Stage 6: Abbeville-Le Havre 191.5km

Aug 16, 2013
7,619
0
0
Sagan, Greg or a surprising Cimolai.

Valverde not good enough atm to challenge, and to much a AGR for Purito.
 
Re: Re:

BigMac said:
jsem94 said:
Let's hope that wind isn't mild. Otherwise, normal bunch sprint.
There cannot be a normal bunch sprint with that finale. Stage also has a mellow ardennese look. That climb will feel like a half Cauberg me thinks.
Yeah, my bad. I didn't really watch the last 3km profile. Probably Sagan then, not steep enough for someone like Purito. Probably no gaps among favorites then.
 
Biggest barrier to Sagan winning this is if Tinkoff don't want to spend the effort chasing. Sagan is such a favourite I can't imagine they'll get much help, especially with Matthew and Orica in the condition they are.
 
A puncheur or climber should win this. The climb comes after a sharp corner so everyone will have to accelerate up to top speed. Starting from 30km/h, 900m at 7% is a two minute hard effort.

I think even Sagan could struggle to hold on if Valverde, Rodriguez, Martin etc.. really go for it.
 
May 17, 2015
44
0
0
Re:

DFA123 said:
A puncheur or climber should win this. The climb comes after a sharp corner so everyone will have to accelerate up to top speed. Starting from 30km/h, 900m at 7% is a two minute hard effort.

I think even Sagan could struggle to hold on if Valverde, Rodriguez, Martin etc.. really go for it.
But he still needs the points, so he´ll definitely go for it. The difference in points isn´t as huge as on a flat stage anyway.
 
Re:

SeriousSam said:
Would have said Bling is the top favourite without his crash.
He would have been favourite for sure. Even Gerrans would have had a good chance. I wouldn't be surprised if they go with Albasini now though, Matthews doesn't look anywhere near in shape to seriously challenge.
 
All those maps and graphs in the OP, hardly looks like a typical stage intro thread. :)

The conventional wisdom says the GC contenders will finish together again, but I wonder. After watching Froome put double-digit seconds into all his rivals in less than 400 m on the Huy, I wonder if he will try to gap them here. Sure, it's a much gentler slope, but then, Froome is at his best on less steep gradients. He doesn't need an additional 3-4 seconds, and if he were smart he would probably save his energy, but he can't seem to restrain himself whenever the road goes up. Also, if he can gap the others, it will further send the message to be afraid, very afraid, when the real climbs begin. Contador in particular would not want to be embarrassed again.

At the very least, I expect some testing. Seven percent is not an insignificant grade.

Also, isn't the climb after a 4 km, not 400 m, flat stretch? Or does the 400 m refer to the amount remaining after a final turn before the climb?
 
Re:

Merckx index said:
All those maps and graphs in the OP, hardly looks like a typical stage intro thread. :)

The conventional wisdom says the GC contenders will finish together again, but I wonder. After watching Froome put double-digit seconds into all his rivals in less than 400 m on the Huy, I wonder if he will try to gap them here. Sure, it's a much gentler slope, but then, Froome is at his best on less steep gradients. He doesn't need an additional 3-4 seconds, and if he were smart he would probably save his energy, but he can't seem to restrain himself whenever the road goes up. Also, if he can gap the others, it will further send the message to be afraid, very afraid, when the real climbs begin. Contador in particular would not want to be embarrassed again.

At the very least, I expect some testing. Seven percent is not an insignificant grade.

Also, isn't the climb after a 4 km, not 400 m, flat stretch?
The climb ends with 650m to go with the finishing straight being 400m long and 6.5m wide.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS