2015 Tour de France Stage 6: Abbeville-Le Havre 191.5km

[Netserk]

Sunny weather with a mild NNW wind.

Same amount of points as a normal sprint stage. 3km-rule is in place, so don't worry too much about crashes in the final.

edit: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/618882576984322048

#TDF2015, Stage 6. Cote d'Ingouville (1.05 km, 7.14 %, 75 m [6 m → 81 m])

 

[LaFlorecita]

Sagan

 

[Matteo.]

Sagan with one leg

 

[BigMac]

da Costa.

Race will be shattered by kilometer 162.

Hopefully nobody falls into the sea.

 

[Brullnux]

Sagan to come from 50m behind the leader with 300m to go then winning by 5 seconds , even while wheelie-ing the last 50

Edit:
I forgot that he will be riding backwards

 

[jsem94]

Let's hope that wind isn't mild. Otherwise, normal bunch sprint.

 

[Miburo]

How will the wind be?

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Sagan will eventually get his win

 

[BigMac]

Re:

Let's hope that wind isn't mild. Otherwise, normal bunch sprint.

There cannot be a normal bunch sprint with that finale. Stage also has a mellow ardennese look. That climb will feel like a half Cauberg me thinks.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

How will the wind be?

Read the OP.

 

[Arredondo]

Sagan, Greg or a surprising Cimolai.

Valverde not good enough atm to challenge, and to much a AGR for Purito.

 

[jsem94]

Re: Re:

Let's hope that wind isn't mild. Otherwise, normal bunch sprint.

There cannot be a normal bunch sprint with that finale. Stage also has a mellow ardennese look. That climb will feel like a half Cauberg me thinks.

Yeah, my bad. I didn't really watch the last 3km profile. Probably Sagan then, not steep enough for someone like Purito. Probably no gaps among favorites then.

 

[Punkan]

1. Sagan
2. EBH
3. Valverde

 

[Gigs_98]

Somehow sagan will manage to not win the stage

 

[BeagRigh]

Biggest barrier to Sagan winning this is if Tinkoff don't want to spend the effort chasing. Sagan is such a favourite I can't imagine they'll get much help, especially with Matthew and Orica in the condition they are.

 

[DFA123]

A puncheur or climber should win this. The climb comes after a sharp corner so everyone will have to accelerate up to top speed. Starting from 30km/h, 900m at 7% is a two minute hard effort.

I think even Sagan could struggle to hold on if Valverde, Rodriguez, Martin etc.. really go for it.

 

[sir fly]

A day for English Channel...

 

[Z3lvet]

Re:

A puncheur or climber should win this. The climb comes after a sharp corner so everyone will have to accelerate up to top speed. Starting from 30km/h, 900m at 7% is a two minute hard effort.

I think even Sagan could struggle to hold on if Valverde, Rodriguez, Martin etc.. really go for it.

But he still needs the points, so he´ll definitely go for it. The difference in points isn´t as huge as on a flat stage anyway.

 

[Arredondo]

I forgot Gallopin. He could be close, especially after his Mur de Huy showing.

 

[sir fly]

Degenkolb.
Would it be too much?

 

[SeriousSam]

Would have said Bling is the top favourite without his crash.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Would have said Bling is the top favourite without his crash.

He would have been favourite for sure. Even Gerrans would have had a good chance. I wouldn't be surprised if they go with Albasini now though, Matthews doesn't look anywhere near in shape to seriously challenge.

 

[Baldinger]

Froome and Thomas will be in the top 10. Sagan to win if Conti doesn't need any help.

 

[Merckx index]

All those maps and graphs in the OP, hardly looks like a typical stage intro thread.

The conventional wisdom says the GC contenders will finish together again, but I wonder. After watching Froome put double-digit seconds into all his rivals in less than 400 m on the Huy, I wonder if he will try to gap them here. Sure, it's a much gentler slope, but then, Froome is at his best on less steep gradients. He doesn't need an additional 3-4 seconds, and if he were smart he would probably save his energy, but he can't seem to restrain himself whenever the road goes up. Also, if he can gap the others, it will further send the message to be afraid, very afraid, when the real climbs begin. Contador in particular would not want to be embarrassed again.

At the very least, I expect some testing. Seven percent is not an insignificant grade.

Also, isn't the climb after a 4 km, not 400 m, flat stretch? Or does the 400 m refer to the amount remaining after a final turn before the climb?

 

[Netserk]

Re:

All those maps and graphs in the OP, hardly looks like a typical stage intro thread.

The conventional wisdom says the GC contenders will finish together again, but I wonder. After watching Froome put double-digit seconds into all his rivals in less than 400 m on the Huy, I wonder if he will try to gap them here. Sure, it's a much gentler slope, but then, Froome is at his best on less steep gradients. He doesn't need an additional 3-4 seconds, and if he were smart he would probably save his energy, but he can't seem to restrain himself whenever the road goes up. Also, if he can gap the others, it will further send the message to be afraid, very afraid, when the real climbs begin. Contador in particular would not want to be embarrassed again.

At the very least, I expect some testing. Seven percent is not an insignificant grade.

Also, isn't the climb after a 4 km, not 400 m, flat stretch?

The climb ends with 650m to go with the finishing straight being 400m long and 6.5m wide.