2015 Vuelta stage 16: Luarca > Ermita de Alba 185km

[Pricey_sky]

Really happy with the stage winner, and that Purito wears red too. However overall that stage was a let down.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Which means Dumoulin would normally win more time. The question is how fresh he is after riding for GC 2,5 weeks

OTOH, Dumoulin said he is best at hilly time trials, not flat ones.

True, but the same goes for all his competitors. And their results on flat time trials are exponentially worse than Dumoulin.
Dumoulin is probably still with the best 2/3 of the world on a long flat time trial. While Aru and Rodriguez go from decent to horrible on flat

 

[Tonton]

Re:

You can't compare this TT to the one in Suisse.

The Suisse TT was very hilly, this one isn't.

TdS: not very hilly and not so different. The scale used on the TdS profile is quite deceiving: basically two climbs with 100m elevation each. But the point that Johnymax was making is what I responded to: the situation/plot is quite similar though. Letting Dumoulin within reach would be a huge mistake for Aru and Purito.

 

[johnymax]

Re: Re:

The situation before the TT is similar to the GC before the TT in Tour de Suisse. 4 riders with a realistic chance to take the win. The worst time trialist is in the lead with the best TT rider being in 4th (in Suisse there was Pozzovivo in 4th place but he really didn't have a chance). Luckily for Tom this time there's no time trialist as strong as Spilak or Thomas, but only three Pinots (with especially Majka being a somewhat improved version of Pinot). On the other hand the race doesn't end with the ITT but there are still three stages after that. So even if he takes the lead it still won't be easy to keep the jersey because of his weak team.

"Somewhat" agree, except the Majka>Pinot opinion. Having said that, what happened at the TdS may happen again: climbers defend against other climbers by not attacking early (i.e. in Solden, Pinot/Pozzo waiting to attack and not destroying Spilak/Dumoulin/Gerrans), then the ITT specialists limit their losses and stay in the picture. Dumoulin is still very much alive. He shouldn't be.

My Majka>Pinot is based only on long TT abilities right now. In the above mentioned TT, Majka in worse shape was in front of Pinot.

You meant Thomas. I agree with you with the exception that Spilak is not a TT specialist but more of a climber and also he was the first to attack to take time on Dumoulin and Thomas.

 

[Climbing]

I'm happy to see Frank back there!

It's clear that everyone is totally exhausted, completely dead tired.
Let's see the situation after the TT, it has the potential to be a very close call for Madrid.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I wonder how Rodriguez and Aru think about the 1st week. Especially when in the first few stages Dumoulin could attack freely and nobody saw him as a danger

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Which means Dumoulin would normally win more time. The question is how fresh he is after riding for GC 2,5 weeks

OTOH, Dumoulin said he is best at hilly time trials, not flat ones.

True, but the same goes for all his competitors. And their results on flat time trials are exponentially worse than Dumoulin.
Dumoulin is probably still with the best 2/3 of the world on a long flat time trial. While Aru and Rodriguez go from decent to horrible on flat

Yep. The hillier the less difference between the specialists and the climbers. Dumoulin is simply better in a hilly TT because of his versatility.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_Ciclista_al_Pais_Vasco_2015_Stage_6_Aia

Let's take this TT for example. Rodriguez beating Tony Martin with almost 40 seconds and challenging Dumoulin for the win tells you nothing about his skills against the clock.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I wonder how Rodriguez and Aru think about the 1st week. Especially when in the first few stages Dumoulin could attack freely and nobody saw him as a danger

Come on, what could they do? they are probably more surprised than we are!

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

I wonder how Rodriguez and Aru think about the 1st week. Especially when in the first few stages Dumoulin could attack freely and nobody saw him as a danger

Come on, what could they do? they are probably more surprised than we are!

I think all of the top guys worried more about CF than any other rider. The main focus was on him.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Today Aru and Rodriguez may've lost Vuelta and my favourite (Majka of course) may've lost place on the podium. Dumoulin was very good and limited his chances - two minutes on pure climbers on 40-km route is realistic and he can gain even more. Obviously time trial in the third week of GT is different but Dumoulin is really strong. On bike he's two times bigger than Rodriquez and still managed to hang on with him until the last km on this brutal stage - his wattage must be very high compared to the rest. And today's rest day after mountains is also good information for him. Let's hope GC fight will be very exciting until saturday.

 

[Gigs_98]

@Premier Andrew
don't you have the false avatar

 

[Gigs_98]

I am pretty excited because of the ITT. Will be interesting to see if dumoulin can really get as much time as most of you say. I expect it to be pretty close between Tom and Aru after Wednesday, although I give Dumoulin an advantage.

 

[BigMac]

Can't wait til the TT thread is open so I can spam Oliveira hype non-stop.

 

[SafeBet]

There's at least one reason to cheer up: tomorrow is going to be the most entertaining day of this Vuelta.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Which means Dumoulin would normally win more time. The question is how fresh he is after riding for GC 2,5 weeks

OTOH, Dumoulin said he is best at hilly time trials, not flat ones.

True, but the same goes for all his competitors. And their results on flat time trials are exponentially worse than Dumoulin.
Dumoulin is probably still with the best 2/3 of the world on a long flat time trial. While Aru and Rodriguez go from decent to horrible on flat

Aru's 2 best TT results are in flatter time trials, this years Poland ITT and the 2013 Giro ITT as a domestique for Nibali (ok, it was a pretty technical ITT) Aru gained 56 seconds on Henao in the Poland TT, so he should be able to gain some time on Purito.

 

[yaco]

Reckon Dumoulin will get up to 2 minutes on Rodriguez - Can say that Dumoulin goes a bit better on a hilly TT course - Time can still be lost on stage 18,19 and especially 20 - They are not easy stages.

 

[May0maniac]

Great ride by Fränk, the gc-conterders gave me horrible 2012 Giro flashbacks.

 

[ice&fire]

If there's people who thinks that something may happen in stages 18, 19 and 20 after all we've seen so far there's no doubt about it: this forum is full of optimists

 

[More Strides than Rides]

The TT will be what it is, but the whole last week is set up to be really, really, interesting. With no MTF, two descent finishes, a Purito finish, everybody has a chance.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

The TT will be what it is, but the whole last week is set up to be really, really, interesting. With no MTF, two descent finishes, a Purito finish, everybody has a chance.

+1. It goes to say that course designs, sometimes not by...design , can be better than they look on paper. Suspense and drama: at this point, so far into the race, we can't tell who will prevail.This Vuelta could very well become a classic, a bloodbath, sweat, tears, a win by a handful of seconds. To be continued...

 

[Billie]

Re:

The TT will be what it is, but the whole last week is set up to be really, really, interesting. With no MTF, two descent finishes, a Purito finish, everybody has a chance.

Avila is not a purito finish.

 

[search]

Re: Re:

Which means Dumoulin would normally win more time. The question is how fresh he is after riding for GC 2,5 weeks

OTOH, Dumoulin said he is best at hilly time trials, not flat ones.

True, but the same goes for all his competitors. And their results on flat time trials are exponentially worse than Dumoulin.
Dumoulin is probably still with the best 2/3 of the world on a long flat time trial. While Aru and Rodriguez go from decent to horrible on flat

Aru's 2 best TT results are in flatter time trials, this years Poland ITT and the 2013 Giro ITT as a domestique for Nibali (ok, it was a pretty technical ITT) Aru gained 56 seconds on Henao in the Poland TT, so he should be able to gain some time on Purito.

the 2013 Giro time trial also wasn't flat at all, overall there was even more climbing than in the one 2014 (~800m compared to ~650)

2013: http://tracks4bikers.com/beta_tracks/show/135526
2014: http://tracks4bikers.com/beta_tracks/show/206354

 

[hrotha]

Re: Re:

While I know why you "warned" the content of this post, it is the best point made so far about how the race is unfolding. The fans who are complaining want superhuman efforts day in and day out, all year long, but that isn't possible without...let's just say that you can't have it both ways.

That's simply bollocks. And it's unfair that you can come here to say something so wrong, safe in the knowledge that any rebuttal would be too Clinicky to remain here for long.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Disgraceful stage, especially purito. Hope dumoulin wins it now

You are a disgrace, to call someone a disgrace who was about to be dropped on Cobertoria. He did the only right thing today.

You haven't watched the stage surely. Or you don't know anything about cycling and think this sport is some playstation where every rider can pull a solo of 50 km on every mountain stage he wants

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

While I know why you "warned" the content of this post, it is the best point made so far about how the race is unfolding. The fans who are complaining want superhuman efforts day in and day out, all year long, but that isn't possible without...let's just say that you can't have it both ways.

That's simply bollocks. And it's unfair that you can come here to say something so wrong, safe in the knowledge that any rebuttal would be too Clinicky to remain here for long.

I disagree. Nothing wrong with his post at all.