2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedilla

[l.Harm]

You don't know for sure... you can do handsling and then push him if you're quick

 

[malakassis]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

the whole context of this years vuelta would logically suggest dumoulin for the win. he looks stronges/freshest.

so head: dumoulin
heart: aru (or purito or quintana ) i simply like climbers

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

On, the first couple of climbs Astana have to get rid off Dumoulin's teammates.

Then Astana have to let Dumoulin do all the chasing andt tire him out if someone lower down in the GC attack on the penultimate climb.

That's pretty much the only way the beat him. If Astana are going to chase down Quintana, Valverde, Chaves or even Majka and Rodriguez, they are truly stupid.

In case of attacks Tinkoff will chase the Movistar duo, Katusha will chase Majka and Astana will take the rest. Stupidity is widespread in the peloton.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

On, the first couple of climbs Astana have to get rid off Dumoulin's teammates.

Then Astana have to let Dumoulin do all the chasing andt tire him out if someone lower down in the GC attack on the penultimate climb.

That's pretty much the only way the beat him. If Astana are going to chase down Quintana, Valverde, Chaves or even Majka and Rodriguez, they are truly stupid.

In case of attacks Tinkoff will chase the Movistar duo, Katusha will chase Majka and Astana will take the rest. Stupidity is widespread in the peloton.

Yeah, It's annoying that they only want to defend their position in the GC. But I'm pretty sure the Movistar duo is ready to go all-in. At least Valverde who seems fresh and aggressive.

 

[malakassis]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

will the dutch manage to get all red?
dumoulin maglia roja and van poppel laterne rouge?

 

[Andro]

Astana/Aru pretty much have to attack on the penultimate climb when the last climb is so easy. Should be a good race.

Gogo Tom!

 

[manafana]

Yeah there was a push instead, not great really and the fact its not even got him a fine strange. Astana not willing enough to let 2nd go to try come 1st in my view so wion't let guys off.

 

[Miburo]

Dumoulin got this race.

I feel sorry for him though cause now every dutch will think he can win the tour and if he won't perform next year the dutch press will destroy him.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Dumoulin got this race.

I feel sorry for him though cause now every dutch will think he can win the tour and if he won't perform next year the dutch press will destroy him.

That guy can climb, he will win the Tour!!

The sad stories from Kruijswijk, Gesink and Mollema + a lot more that I have forgotten. Wonder why they always are so promising, yet always end up semi disappointing

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The thing with the tactic of forcing Dumoulin to chase is, Aru and Astana must be willing to lose the Vuelta for that tactic to work. And I think Dumoulin is better at bluffing than Astana/Aru.

If Majka/Quintana/Valverde or anyone else in the top 9 goes early. He'll just stay in the wheels of Aru and Astana and look to them to close the gap. If they don't. neither Dumoulin or Aru will win. So it's a high stakes poker game, and I think Astana doesn't have the nerves to wait. They will chase sooner than Dumoulin will.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I have really high expectations for this stage. 9 teams are still without a stage win and for many this is their last chance. Furthermore, all riders know that the Vuelta is almost over and for many this is one of their last chances of the season to shine, so I expect a furious battle to get into today's break and I expect a strong group to get clear. At the same time, Astana desperately has to keep it all together and make sure that the bonus seconds are up for grabs for Aru today, and they have to isolate Dumoulin - preferably early in the stage.

It should be fun!

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

The thing with the tactic of forcing Dumoulin to chase is, Aru and Astana must be willing to lose the Vuelta for that tactic to work. And I think Dumoulin is better at bluffing than Astana/Aru.

If Majka/Quintana/Valverde or anyone else in the top 9 goes early. He'll just stay in the wheels of Aru and Astana and look to them to close the gap. If they don't. neither Dumoulin or Aru will win. So it's a high stakes poker game, and I think Astana doesn't have the nerves to wait. They will chase sooner than Dumoulin will.

That's true. Dumoulin has seemed cooler and more patient than Aru for the entire Vuelta. Maybe that is what it takes.

Tom knows as long as he stays in Aru's wheel, he will win this Vuelta. No way the other contenders will allow each other to get a huge gap. They will be be neutralizing attacks and racing for secondary positions.

 

[KyoGrey]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

Delgado and Recio in their ride towards Perico's coup d'Etat against Millar in the same Sierra roads that will be riden today (1985):

At the time, Millar didn't even know he was losing the Vuelta. Apparently, fellow Spaniards from other teams contributed to the complot by even congratulating Millar for his overall win while the differences increased, so that he didn't discover the masquerade until it was too late.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

The thing with the tactic of forcing Dumoulin to chase is, Aru and Astana must be willing to lose the Vuelta for that tactic to work. And I think Dumoulin is better at bluffing than Astana/Aru.

If Majka/Quintana/Valverde or anyone else in the top 9 goes early. He'll just stay in the wheels of Aru and Astana and look to them to close the gap. If they don't. neither Dumoulin or Aru will win. So it's a high stakes poker game, and I think Astana doesn't have the nerves to wait. They will chase sooner than Dumoulin will.

100% agree. Astana would never risk their 2nd place.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Also a key factor, Aru only has 5 helpers left with Vanotti gone. So it will be very hard for Astana to keep the break within reach.

 

[l.Harm]

Cowards.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Cowards.

The problem is that you can't tell from a still photograph if it is pushing, a hand-sling or whatever else. I don't think a time penalty can be issued here unless there is pretty much 100% evidence of an infraction.

Astana could just say that LLS was giving Aru a tap because he was getting too close, or wasn't holding his line, or just as a message that he is finished and can't help any more... or one of several other legitimate reasons.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Cowards.

6 seconds makes for a more suspenseful race than 16 seconds

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

On, the first couple of climbs Astana have to get rid off Dumoulin's teammates.

Then Astana have to let Dumoulin do all the chasing andt tire him out if someone lower down in the GC attack on the penultimate climb.

That's pretty much the only way the beat him. If Astana are going to chase down Quintana, Valverde, Chaves or even Majka and Rodriguez, they are truly stupid.

In case of attacks Tinkoff will chase the Movistar duo, Katusha will chase Majka and Astana will take the rest. Stupidity is widespread in the peloton.

If the riders of Tinkoff can chase the 2nd and 3rd of le Tour, one of them the best climber of the world is something that at least would be very sorpressive.

I hope no, for the credibility of this sport.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Also a key factor, Aru only has 5 helpers left with Vanotti gone. So it will be very hard for Astana to keep the break within reach.

Yes, but they are Luis Leon, who won a Paris Nice to Contador, Cataldo, italian ITT champion and Cuitu Negru winner, leader of quick step in il Giro,.. Diego Rosa, one of the most promising italian riders and Mikel Landa, one of the best climbers of the world. Of course you need one to go the car, so thay dont have a team to work all the day, but they have a very strong team for the key moments.

The problem is of Mikel has all the motivation you need to put everything you have to help Aru to win la Vuelta. I have no doubt he will do a good job, but I have my doubts if in another situation he could give more.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

On, the first couple of climbs Astana have to get rid off Dumoulin's teammates.

Then Astana have to let Dumoulin do all the chasing andt tire him out if someone lower down in the GC attack on the penultimate climb.

That's pretty much the only way the beat him. If Astana are going to chase down Quintana, Valverde, Chaves or even Majka and Rodriguez, they are truly stupid.

In case of attacks Tinkoff will chase the Movistar duo, Katusha will chase Majka and Astana will take the rest. Stupidity is widespread in the peloton.

If the riders of Tinkoff can chase the 2nd and 3rd of le Tour, one of them the best climber of the world is something that at least would be very sorpressive.

I hope no, for the credibility of this sport.

Domestiques reel in much better climbers all the time nowadays; it's unfortunately one of the ways the sport has changed for the worse.

They are all so close in terms of ability, that a decent domestique doing 110% of his FTP for 10 minutes can usually easily reel in a top GC guy who is pacing himself for a stage win and going at 100% of his FTP.

Movistar might have to sacrifice one of their two stars on an early climb to burn out Tinkoff's/Katushas domestiques, if they are serious about trying to get one of them on the podium.

 

[KyoGrey]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

Live feed starts in TVE. Numerous crowds in San Lorenzo del Escorial.

 

[The Hitch]

If they are in SLdE why didn't they use the climb from 2011?

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: 2015 Vuelta stage 20: San Lorenzo de El Escorial>Cercedi

Live feed starts in TVE. Numerous crowds in San Lorenzo del Escorial.

Let's hope they start to race from the beginning. A day without a break would be fine with me.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

If they are in SLdE why didn't they use the climb from 2011?

In the neutralised start?