- Jul 16, 2011
- 1,561
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Re:
It's always difficult to know who really is in form before the first real MTF. One could see that he was champing at the bit before the stage to PSB in the tour. He's definitely not in bad form, but I can't see him going into full *** mode. Given the parcours of the Vuelta, I would say his plan is to peak for the ITT (time will tell whether he does). Quintana's form seems to be about the same. He'll look to make the big differences on stages 11 and 16. I think Valverde is strong (he always is).
Of the GC "dark horses" Pozzovivo seems to be riding himself into form (his 7th in the sprint yesterday was a surprise, OK it was uphill, but being reasonably close when Degenkolb is in the mix is impressive). Majka also seems to be becoming more sprightly after a slow start on the opening HTF. TJ will probably lose a bit of time at the end. We'll see if the Astana boys have been keeping their powder dry or just hanging on. If it gets tactical, JRod will have an excellent chance (I think he'll be in the mix, but lose a bit of time). Danny boy has shone before in similar stages, but since he's been stage hunting, I don't think he'll have the energy for the win. Chaves has been the revelation so far and I think he'll hold on to the jersey tomorrow.
I think the crucial part for the GC will be the last 3-4k. I think that up to then it will be a war of attrition with attacks from the second tier guys. Since Orica won't be able to form a train on the final climb, I think it will be Sky, but that will be more to control the race than tear it apart. Dawg will be in finding his rhythm mode. Look for Pozzovivo and/or Majka to make the first serious pushes. Such an attack might hold, but the big guns won't be far off. It's going to be tactical. The top 10-15 should be fairly close (around 1min between them).
1. Pozzovivo
2. Majka
3. Bala
4. Dawg
5. Nairo
Pricey_sky said:
It's always difficult to know who really is in form before the first real MTF. One could see that he was champing at the bit before the stage to PSB in the tour. He's definitely not in bad form, but I can't see him going into full *** mode. Given the parcours of the Vuelta, I would say his plan is to peak for the ITT (time will tell whether he does). Quintana's form seems to be about the same. He'll look to make the big differences on stages 11 and 16. I think Valverde is strong (he always is).
Of the GC "dark horses" Pozzovivo seems to be riding himself into form (his 7th in the sprint yesterday was a surprise, OK it was uphill, but being reasonably close when Degenkolb is in the mix is impressive). Majka also seems to be becoming more sprightly after a slow start on the opening HTF. TJ will probably lose a bit of time at the end. We'll see if the Astana boys have been keeping their powder dry or just hanging on. If it gets tactical, JRod will have an excellent chance (I think he'll be in the mix, but lose a bit of time). Danny boy has shone before in similar stages, but since he's been stage hunting, I don't think he'll have the energy for the win. Chaves has been the revelation so far and I think he'll hold on to the jersey tomorrow.
I think the crucial part for the GC will be the last 3-4k. I think that up to then it will be a war of attrition with attacks from the second tier guys. Since Orica won't be able to form a train on the final climb, I think it will be Sky, but that will be more to control the race than tear it apart. Dawg will be in finding his rhythm mode. Look for Pozzovivo and/or Majka to make the first serious pushes. Such an attack might hold, but the big guns won't be far off. It's going to be tactical. The top 10-15 should be fairly close (around 1min between them).
1. Pozzovivo
2. Majka
3. Bala
4. Dawg
5. Nairo
. Zomegnan would have found a way 
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