2016 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage analysis

[May0maniac]

It's always awesome to read your Giro preview.
I'll probably be there on the road on the queenstage, somewhere after the Cinque Torri ski station on the Passo Falzarego/Valparola, if the stage is raced properly it should be an awesome point to watch it.

 

[Eshnar]

Thanks guys
Of course, if you spot any mistakes (that will happen very easily I think) please tell me

 

[Laplaz]

Really nice report, it took me more then half an hour to read it

 

[Gigs_98]

Eshnar, I don't want to spoil your joy about the giro starting soon, but on the maps you posted the first half of almost every stage is missing. I don't know if thats purpose because at the end its this part which really matters or if its a problem because you took the pictures from the giro website where the "preview" for the maps also doesnt show the whole one.

 

[Eshnar]

Eshnar, I don't want to spoil your joy about the giro starting soon, but on the maps you posted the first half of almost every stage is missing. I don't know if thats purpose because at the end its this part which really matters or if its a problem because you took the pictures from the giro website where the "preview" for the maps also doesnt show the whole one.

I realized it just two minutes ago
It's because Gazzetta's originals are too big. I have to resize them...

 

[Valv.Piti]

If 'the riders make the race' ever was true, this is the route. Could turn out to be a spectacular Giro or being a snoozefest until the 2 last stages. Its really up to the riders to make this one, the ingredients are in place, but do they dare?

I don't know what to hope for. On one sider, Im super excited, 2 of my favourite riders are the favourites, the route looks good, but risky in multiple way. On the other, I just fear a very, very defensive race due to the placements of the TT's. As far as isolated stages go, stage 13 and 14 are TERRIFIC, but in the grand scheme of things, it could really end up biting them in the arse.

 

[Eshnar]

Alright, I just resized all the planimetry. Should be all good now.

 

[togo95]

Great preview Eshnar (as always), loved reading it, although I already got quite familiar with the stages beforehand. I really hope the weather will allow to ride all of them, but it's quite hard to imagine. On the other hand, it might be a bit risky for the best climber in the race to be relying on the French stages to take back time, due to their altitude. Therefore we might see Landa especially show his cards in stages like 13 and 14 already.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Great preview Eshnar (as always), loved reading it, although I already got quite familiar with the stages beforehand. I really hope the weather will allow to ride all of them, but it's quite hard to imagine. On the other hand, it might be a bit risky for the best climber in the race to be relying on the French stages to take back time, due to their altitude. Therefore we might see Landa especially show his cards in stages like 13 and 14 already.

As long as stages 13 and 14 gets raced very aggressively, with the ITT's, I think we will witness a very good Giro indeed! But stages 8, 10, 16 and 18 also offers a lot for those who dare (including 13 and 14 especially). The last 2 stages will be good and exciting regardless unless it turns 2012.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Great preview Eshnar. But we are used to that

I think it's a great route, pretty balanced and some pretty exciting unknown stages. I hope the weather will not be that bad, so the pure climbers will get their chance to shine and take time on the rouleurs in the final week. It's vital for guys like Landa, Pozzo and Majka.

I'm mostly looking forward to stage 8 (Arezzo), 13, 14, 16, 18 and 20. Especially the stage to Brixen-Andalo with the tough climb of Fai Della Paganella could be epic if they attack from the bottom! And if this Giro will be hard-ridden, under tough weather conditions, those final two stage will be a real battlefield. Lesser climbers or guys who have a bad day, could easily lose minutes on Bonette or Lombarda!

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Great preview Eshnar (as always), loved reading it, although I already got quite familiar with the stages beforehand. I really hope the weather will allow to ride all of them, but it's quite hard to imagine. On the other hand, it might be a bit risky for the best climber in the race to be relying on the French stages to take back time, due to their altitude. Therefore we might see Landa especially show his cards in stages like 13 and 14 already.

As long as stages 13 and 14 gets raced very aggressively, with the ITT's, I think we will witness a very good Giro indeed! But stages 8, 10, 16 and 18 also offers a lot for those who dare (including 13 and 14 especially). The last 2 stages will be good and exciting regardless unless it turns 2012.

But the action had to come from Hesjedal (one-hit-wonder), Basso (old and passed his expiration date already back then), Scarponi (same), De Gendt (never a true GC contender), Pozzo (good climber, but no A-material) and Uran (who rode his first good GC back then).

The only top-guy was Purito. But he was already in shape in Tirreno (where he won a stage). He was at the end of his first peak of shape, and had to tackle that Giro with caution and coming fatigue. He should have won that Giro anyway, but that's another discussion

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Great preview Eshnar (as always), loved reading it, although I already got quite familiar with the stages beforehand. I really hope the weather will allow to ride all of them, but it's quite hard to imagine. On the other hand, it might be a bit risky for the best climber in the race to be relying on the French stages to take back time, due to their altitude. Therefore we might see Landa especially show his cards in stages like 13 and 14 already.

As long as stages 13 and 14 gets raced very aggressively, with the ITT's, I think we will witness a very good Giro indeed! But stages 8, 10, 16 and 18 also offers a lot for those who dare (including 13 and 14 especially). The last 2 stages will be good and exciting regardless unless it turns 2012.

But the action had to come from Hesjedal (one-hit-wonder), Basso (old and passed his expiration date already back then), Scarponi (same), De Gendt (never a true GC contender), Pozzo (good climber, but no A-material) and Uran (who rode his first good GC back then).

The only top-guy was Purito. But he was already in shape in Tirreno (where he won a stage). He was at the end of his first peak of shape, and had to tackle that Giro with caution and coming fatigue. He should have won that Giro anyway, but that's another discussion

We agree on everything, especially the fact that Purito should've won, but that wasn't really the point... the point just was that unless it gets that bad, the 2 mountain stages will be a guarantee, contrary to all of the rest of the route basically which is super risky, but I like it!

 

[fauniera]

Re:

Awesome work as usual.

Of course, if you spot any mistakes (that will happen very easily I think) please tell me

The Chianti time trial has the wrong map.

 

[Red Rick]

Love the write ups Eshnar

Risky route. 1 good MTF means very little garuanteed action. A lot of stages that could provide a *** load of action though. There are 4 problems though

The TT. Should've been 50+km and pan flat. Force the purest climbers to take any chance to attack.
Altitude. Relatively high risk of cancellation for all the biggest mountain stages.
TT placement, as been mentioned before.
Climb placement. Some of the best climbs are followed up by substantial parts of false flat. Makes stages very controllable for a dominant team if the finishing climbs don't provide enough opportunity to create gaps.

Oh, and the laps in Nijmegen. Stage would be way nicer if the lap had included the climb. Have puncheurs and sprinters contest the stage win, whilst GC riders have to be alert already. That climb is better than 95% of AGR climbs

 

[Sciocco]

MY FAVORITE THREAD OF THE YEAR!!!!!!!

I will save this for tomorrow, thank you Eshnar.

 

[Jancouver]

Excellent preview! Now I'm even more excited! Thanks Eshnar!

 

[gregrowlerson]

Wonderful preview of a great race Eshnar! Overall I like the route (though the first week looks a little dull and the long ITT could be longer), and it seems that there are a lot of new or rarely used climbs which is good, particularly considering the milestone edition next year. Yet at the same time we still have a mythical Dolomites stage (14). As an Australian I am also very happy about the biggest mountain stages being 13, 14, 19 and 20 (Friday and Saturday nights here)!

 

[Scarponi]

I did not realize how epic some of those high altitude climbs really are. If they had a far superior rider they had to beat like Contador last year in this route where Astana had to go ballistic every day I can see this being epic.

 

[Squire]

Thanks for the great work! This has got me even more hyped for the Giro. If all the stages go ahead as planned, there's no way this race can not be incredible. Love the absence of a ton of mountain top finishes. Will allow for a lot less formulaic racing. Really, really hoping for no cancellations.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: Re:

The Chianti time trial has the wrong map.

***... thanks!

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Great work, Eshnar.

 

[Pricey_sky]

I was just wondering over the weekend if you would be doing your usual excellent preview, was not disappointed, excellent work!

 

[Rollthedice]

Great stuff here Eshnar, like always. All we need now is a good race.

 

[kareeem]

Stage 13 is pretty cool but I have a feeling it could be so much better designed. That flat segment makes the first two climbs useless in terms of GC action. If it could just include a climb on the other side of the border (it basically touches Slovenian border at Monte Maggiore and Crai) and then finish with another climb on the Italian side instead of going all the way to Attimis...

 

[dacooley]

Eshnar do you share an idea of this year's Giro being probably the weakest climbing-wise since 2004?