2016 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage analysis

[Escarabajo]

Stage 14 and 20 will be difficult to screw up. Even if ridden conservative. Knock on wood.

 

[Gigs_98]

I figure they'd re-route through Sestriere or shorten the stage if Agnel isn't doable (though I'd assume Izoard would also be impossible so a pretty weak stage would ensue)

They can also go through Cuneo -> Colle de la Maddalena/col de Larche > col de Vars -> Risoul.
Both Maddalena and Vars are already open, thus no problem (if no cataclysmic weather), and it avoids the risk that Izoard may remain closed, and if it's open, I guess it's better for racing as the top of Vars is far closer from the bottom of Risoul than the top of Izoard

this would give a profile like this, which seems to be a pretty decent mountain stage

I think they will rather go over sestriere if the agnello isnt rideable. And then on stage 20 I would expect them to go over vars and madelena if they cant ride the bonette, and then they will do a pretty hard mtf to St. Anna instead of only the short ramp which is planned now.

 

[Broken_Leg]

I think they will rather go over sestriere if the agnello isnt rideable. And then on stage 20 I would expect them to go over vars and madelena if they cant ride the bonette, and then they will do a pretty hard mtf to St. Anna instead of only the short ramp which is planned now.

Yes, it makes sense.
I did not take into account the fact that, if Agnello is closed, then Bonette is most probably also closed.
In such a case, if Izoard is open, it's a quite acceptable 2-days mountain stages.
If it's closed, the Risoul stage is just a (short) ___/

 

[Brullnux]

They better throw in Finestre for good measure

 

[Brullnux]

Done a quick check: Lombarde, Agnello and Bomette all closed. Izoard also. All dolomite passes open except Stelvio, Romba and Gavia ofc but no-one cares as they aren't in the Giro. I'll be honest I didn't see Giau on the list, but it wasn't on the announcement as closed.

Last year Agnello opened on 7th June roughly. It was a reasonably warm year, but there was some snow cover at 2000 that year. However, Stelvio in 2014 would in no way have been cleared had it not been for the Giro, so I have hope for a similar operation.

 

[Eshnar]

All those passes will be opened a week before the race. They are clearing them.
We just have to worry about bad weather in those days. Whatever comes before it won't be a problem.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Done a quick check: Lombarde, Agnello and Bomette all closed. Izoard also. All dolomite passes open except Stelvio, Romba and Gavia ofc but no-one cares as they aren't in the Giro. I'll be honest I didn't see Giau on the list, but it wasn't on the announcement as closed.

Last year Agnello opened on 7th June roughly. It was a reasonably warm year, but there was some snow cover at 2000 that year. However, Stelvio in 2014 would in no way have been cleared had it not been for the Giro, so I have hope for a similar operation.

They are cleaning Rombo right now, I saw some pictures on Fb.
s far as know Bonette will be opened, otherwise they wouldn't have made a deal to go over it.
Edit: Eshnar beat me to it.
The Giau is usually only closed durning strong snowstorms, it's not a pass that is closed durning winter.

 

[Tonton]

That's a fantastic OP...even Netserk is speechless .

I gave a good rating (8 I think) to the course, I think it is set up to produce a deserving winner. High mountains this time a year always is a bet...not sure about it. Mountain goats don't have enough, ITT specialists don't have that much, all-rounders must love it. Nibali and Valverde to face off. Specialized mavericks to muddy the waters. No team looks dominant, really.

It's going to be a fun Giro.

 

[gunara]

What an amazing work, Eshnar.
There is a feel of a gigantic one-week stage race to this, not in a bad way (bad way is when some calls a TdF route as a 'good Dauphine'), there are enough stages that promise smaller gaps that may worth grabbing, with only just enough killer mountain stages that may nullify them. I think I like this route.

 

[hfer07]

Eshnar:

You've done again !!!


Wonderful race description, just in time for me to get ready for it

 

[Guillaume33]

Great work, Eshnar
I think stage 13 (Cividale del Friuli) is really one of the hardests, with narrow roads and steep climbs
If there is a lot of fight, it could be epic
Unfortunately, there is the Dolomites stage the next day, so if the GC riders stay calm, it should be disappointing

 

[May0maniac]

Great work, Eshnar
I think stage 13 (Cividale del Friuli) is really one of the hardests, with narrow roads and steep climbs
If there is a lot of fight, it could be epic
Unfortunately, there is the Dolomites stage the next day, so if the GC riders stay calm, it should be disappointing

According to Bettini the descents are pretty technical and could create significant gaps.

 

[PlanZ]

Fantastic breakdown. Much appreciated.

 

[ice&fire]

I was looking for info on the road opening of Agnello and Bonette and found this:

http://theradavist.com/2016/05/clearing-the-col-de-la-bonette/

http://www.cafeducycliste.com/lagazette/deneigement-de-la-bonette

 

[jens_attacks]

Eshnar keeping the forum alive!

 

[bassano]

nice post eshnar, thanks a lot, hoping for great fun and epic mountain battles as last year

 

[Ataraxus]

Magnificent work Eshnar.
The altitude gains of the stages 14 and 20 are a bit higher than stated (5000m+ and 4300m+ respectively) but that doesn't make a difference about the awesomeness of this thread.
I wanted to ask about the slope and the width of the roads of the Valle descent. From the maps I cannot make any judgement about the selectivity of this descent.

 

[nogav1ca]

Great work, Eshnar
I think stage 13 (Cividale del Friuli) is really one of the hardests, with narrow roads and steep climbs
If there is a lot of fight, it could be epic
Unfortunately, there is the Dolomites stage the next day, so if the GC riders stay calm, it should be disappointing

According to Bettini the descents are pretty technical and could create significant gaps.

The descent from Matajur isn't complicated. Lots of new asphalt and wide roads, so shouldn't really be a problem. Also those max 15 % in the last meters of the ascent, if they go where I think they will go, it's much more than 15 %, somewhere around 24 %, but it's a short section.

Descent from Passo San Martino will be dangerous. Asphalt wise shouldn't be really a problem, but there are some really dangerous turn and also the road is narrow.

Can't tell you much about Crai, since I got lost .

 

[Red Rick]

Looking at this now, I can't remember why I gave this Giro a 6 parcours wise

 

[nogav1ca]

And now something about Porzus and Valle.

So, firstly about Porzus. Pretty regular climb until Porzus (town). Some flatter and steeper sections, but nothing major, except maybe a steeper section after about 3 km. Real fun begins after the town of Porzus. There are a bit more than 2 km left, but climb becomes very irregular. It's especially difficult between the town and the little flat section you can see on the profile. Some steep ramps with a bit flatter parts in between. After that flat section it becomes a bit easier.

If teams will be interested in keeping a high pace on the first three climbs, there is a good chance that the race will blow apart after the town of Porzus, especially with the descent coming next.

The road on the descent is narrow especially in the first part (somewhere until Cannebola), then it gets a bit wider, but not by much. The descent is really twisty, there are also some dangerous sections. Road surface shouldn't be a problem. I'm pretty sure we will see some gaps opening.

Valle isn't a difficult climb, although after all the climbs before it, it might be a bit harder. But if the riders will wait for it, I don't expect too big gaps. The climb is quite regular, gets a bit steeper at the end, but nothing major.

To me, the descent from Valle seemed more dangerous than from the Porzus. Again, the road is narrow, twisty and asphalt is mostly fine.

 

[thiscocks]

Now Greipel set to leave the Giro. Will there be anyone left by the end?

 

[Red Rick]

The last week looks really great right now.

How technical is the descent of the Agnel? I even dug up the preview of the 2011 Galibier stage, but I couldn't find it

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

The last week looks really great right now.

How technical is the descent of the Agnel? I even dug up the preview of the 2011 Galibier stage, but I couldn't find it

it is quite technical higher up, but then becomes fast and relatively easy.
One can definitely attack there, but not sure how much time would be possible to gain.

 

[Ferminal]

It may have been different if Nibali didn't kick things off (we will never know but imagine if it was the case, and Chaves/Kruijswijk initiate), but it's funny what happens when you put a bit of altitude in a race...

1) Takes longer to travel same distance at sea level (or more effort for same speed)
2) Reduces the advantage of drafting
3) Another point of difference between riders (some appear to be better on altitude days just like others may like gradual climbs etc)

I dunno if the hypoxia compounds over the day if you are consistently at altitude but something like that seems to be going on also (carnage at the end of the stage).

Use it.

Not directed at RCS as if anything they get in trouble trying to include it, doesn't always have to be 2700m monsters though. It may not be possible to string these sorts of "never below 1500m" days together outside the Dolomites but you can still do multiple passes, or even one (finishing) climb is better than nothing.

Realistic climbs in the Alps for the Tour?

Galibier (ya)
Izoard (not huge on it, 2011 was best you can do?)
Agnello (2011)
Bonette (2008)
Lombarde (?)
Cenis (? - not really high but it's long and has that flat at top, chainable with others)
GSB (as 2009 showed I don't really think this is useful, unless you want to finish outside France)
Iseran (2007 was half a climb, I don't know how long since the full thing was used North or South)
Val Thorens (20 years or something)

Probably missed a few too, am I right in saying Allos was the highest the Tour had been, sans the non-Galibier, since 2011?

The Vuelta hasn't been close to its 2009 Sierra Nevada height since?

/rant

 

[Netserk]

Cenis-Iseran-Tignes would have (most) of the last 80km above 1500m. You could also do the 2007 Briancon stage in reverse, or keep it as it was but with Granon in the end.