2016 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage analysis

[pink_jersey]

Re: Re:

As always, awesome preview Eshnar! Great work!
Based on parcours, Valverde should grab 2 stages easy. 6 and 10 are tailor made for him, I think. If he's strong he also has a chance in the Andalo and Andolo, Sestola and Cividale del Friulli stages.
Landa should win some stages as well. The last 2 mountain stages are perfect for him. The MTT as well. Also, in the Corvara stage he should be the favourite.
Nibali should be the most consistent in this parcours. But to win a stage he needs to drop Valverde on mountanis because I don't think he can drop him on descents.
From the GC guys, Uran should kill that ITT if he has 2014 shape.

The Cividale stage should be good for Nibali. If it rains the time gaps on the descents could be enormous.

I think he will get beaten by Valverde in a sprint...I execpt a select group(Nibs, Valverde, Landa and maybe one or two other riders) sprinting for the win in that stage.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

As always, awesome preview Eshnar! Great work!
Based on parcours, Valverde should grab 2 stages easy. 6 and 10 are tailor made for him, I think. If he's strong he also has a chance in the Andalo and Andolo, Sestola and Cividale del Friulli stages.
Landa should win some stages as well. The last 2 mountain stages are perfect for him. The MTT as well. Also, in the Corvara stage he should be the favourite.
Nibali should be the most consistent in this parcours. But to win a stage he needs to drop Valverde on mountanis because I don't think he can drop him on descents.
From the GC guys, Uran should kill that ITT if he has 2014 shape.

The Cividale stage should be good for Nibali. If it rains the time gaps on the descents could be enormous.

I think he will get beaten by Valverde in a sprint...I execpt a select group(Nibs, Valverde, Landa and maybe one or two other riders) sprinting for the win in that stage.

He will simply drop Valverde on the climb and Landa on the descent

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

As always, awesome preview Eshnar! Great work!
Based on parcours, Valverde should grab 2 stages easy. 6 and 10 are tailor made for him, I think. If he's strong he also has a chance in the Andalo and Andolo, Sestola and Cividale del Friulli stages.
Landa should win some stages as well. The last 2 mountain stages are perfect for him. The MTT as well. Also, in the Corvara stage he should be the favourite.
Nibali should be the most consistent in this parcours. But to win a stage he needs to drop Valverde on mountanis because I don't think he can drop him on descents.
From the GC guys, Uran should kill that ITT if he has 2014 shape.

https://youtu.be/LJLcsUfNTH0?t=3490

C'mon, he didn't even tried to follow Nibs there.

Surely, you'll say the same in the Giro

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

As always, awesome preview Eshnar! Great work!
Based on parcours, Valverde should grab 2 stages easy. 6 and 10 are tailor made for him, I think. If he's strong he also has a chance in the Andalo and Andolo, Sestola and Cividale del Friulli stages.
Landa should win some stages as well. The last 2 mountain stages are perfect for him. The MTT as well. Also, in the Corvara stage he should be the favourite.
Nibali should be the most consistent in this parcours. But to win a stage he needs to drop Valverde on mountanis because I don't think he can drop him on descents.
From the GC guys, Uran should kill that ITT if he has 2014 shape.

https://youtu.be/LJLcsUfNTH0?t=3490

C'mon, he didn't even tried to follow Nibs there.

Then Valverde made a tactical error in a monument. To be honest, I'm not sure which is worse. I'd say the second. He is not as good as Nibali on descents.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

You're the man, Eshnar! Always the best thread of the year. Thanks!

 

[Tour_de_Calvados]

Thanks Eshnar - outstanding preview!

I'm a long time lurker but am always impressed by your Giro previews. Really excited for the race now, like you say some of these stages could be epic but depends on how they are raced - here's hoping more like Gardecchia 2011 than the year after!

 

[doperhopper]

Great preview!

Let's see whether hyper motivated Landa hopped on marginal gains can totally destroy the field, especially if Brailsford comes up with decent selection of auxiliary SKYborgs and does not keep everything safe and dry for July... or just wins normally.

 

[Broken_Leg]

Thank you for this fantastic preview Eshnar !

As for the race, I'm quite concerned with the high passes - notably the 2700+ meter high Agnello & Bonette.
I don't know how much snow there is up there, but the temperature at the Bonette are currently still below freezing during the whole day ... and it's snowing this night.

https://www.meteoblue.com/fr/meteo/prevision/semaine/cime-de-la-bonette_france_3031810

Well, there are still more than four weeks, and I guess everything will be done to have it raceable, but the weather is currently unseasonably cold.
OTOH, the 2100 meter high col de Vars is already open.

And the *risk* of cancellation of the last two stages may not after all be a bad thing : it should be an incentive for climbers to attack earlier and not risk losing the race because of a cancelled stage ...

 

[Googolplex]

Accuweather's long term forecast predicts quite cold for entire May. But it's usually wrong, so let's hope it's warm enough.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Great writeup Eshnar

 

[Poursuivant]

Great work Eshnar: it must've taken you ages, thank you.

 

[barmaher]

Yes, I really enjoyed this, too.

Thanks very much Eshnar. Although some of the individual stages look nice, I am a little bit worried that the hilly ITT and the MTT will mean that climbers don't go full pelt on the early mountain stages. It is not like they will lose a huge pile in the time trials.

Still, though. I am looking forward to the race.

 

[Arch_Koven]

Red and blue jersey Giro d'Italia 2016

I'd like to know if the winner of the prologue in Apeldoorn automatically is ranked first for the points and mountains classification? Does anybody know the answer? Thanks in advance.

 

[Breh]

KOM jersey will be awarded the next day. Prologue winner receives pink and red jerseys.

 

[OlavEH]

Great thread and excellent analysis Eshnar!

In the first two weeks, I especially look forward to the Arezzo and Cividale del Friulli stages.

The Corvara stage could be epic if some of the top GC riders actually dare to attack already on Passo Giau. Otherwise I fear that this could be an disappointing stage. Valparola is not tough enough to gain much time.

I don't have much expectations for the Risoul stage, but I hope that the standing in the GC before last mountain stage to St.Anna Vinadio forces some the riders to make early attacks in an attempt to gain enough time. If Landa is 2 minutes behind Nibali before this stage, we could certainly await some action!

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Great thread and excellent analysis Eshnar!

In the first two weeks, I especially look forward to the Arezzo and Gemona del Friulli stages.

...Which route have you been looking at?

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Great thread and excellent analysis Eshnar!

In the first two weeks, I especially look forward to the Arezzo and Gemona del Friulli stages.

The Corvara stage could be epic if some of the top GC riders actually dare to attack already on Passo Giau. Otherwise I fear that this could be an disappointing stage. Valparola is not tough enough to gain much time.

I don't have much expectations for the Risoul stage, but I hope that the standing in the GC before last mountain stage to St.Anna Vinadio forces some the riders to make early attacks in an attempt to gain enough time. If Landa is 2 minutes behind Nibali before this stage, we could certainly await some action!

In arecent interview Valverde said that the Corvara stage will probably be the most important one and Landa said that the Dolomites will be crucial, that gives me some hope.

 

[HelloDolly]

This is a really good analysis an write up the stages...Very handy to come to before each stage

Surprised though the parcours are not as mountainous as I expected...certainly not as mountainous as the Vuelta last year

Makes me think this race will be won by Nibali , with Uran 2nd and 3rd no sure ????

 

[OlavEH]

Re: Re:

Great thread and excellent analysis Eshnar!

In the first two weeks, I especially look forward to the Arezzo and Gemona del Friulli stages.

...Which route have you been looking at?

Cividale del Friuli of course!

 

[Escarabajo]

This is great Eshnar. Thanks.

 

[yespatterns]

Awesome job Eshnar!

 

[Tank Engine]

Great work Eschnar

It's looks like a great, if risky, course. I'm definitely a proponent of the "don't overdo the MTFs and course design that give platforms for attacks 3-40kms out and there seem to be a few here.

I hope they've got a decent plan B though, because there's a huge amount of high altitude stuff for May.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

This is a really good analysis an write up the stages...Very handy to come to before each stage

Surprised though the parcours are not as mountainous as I expected...certainly not as mountainous as the Vuelta last year

Makes me think this race will be won by Nibali , with Uran 2nd and 3rd no sure ????

Well I think there are plenty of mountains, but not as much MTF, which could be really good thing and force some action from a far.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

It's this kind of post and the R. Design thread that made me sign up for this in the first place. Top notch stuff!

I am kind of worried about the final mountain stages. They've had so. many. problems in the last few years (original Val Martello stage, Galibier). When it's not the snow it's because Zomegnan wanted to race goat tracks down the Crostis.

Hoping to see Bonette again even if it's not the full shebang up to the Cime (gotta keep that Cima Coppi at least on Agnello!). I figure they'd re-route through Sestriere or shorten the stage if Agnel isn't doable (though I'd assume Izoard would also be impossible so a pretty weak stage would ensue). I struggle to see how they'd be able to race anything at all into S. Anna di Vinadio if it's snowed it.

As long as Corvara is in I don't mind. I think that that high-altitude leg-breaker of a stage is a beauty!

If everything goes according to plan it's hard to look past Landa on this one though. I don't think Uran's got enough in his tank for this and this route doesn't suit Bala at all with multi-mountain stages at altitude and a shortage of really punchy finishes.

 

[Broken_Leg]

I figure they'd re-route through Sestriere or shorten the stage if Agnel isn't doable (though I'd assume Izoard would also be impossible so a pretty weak stage would ensue)

They can also go through Cuneo -> Colle de la Maddalena/col de Larche > col de Vars -> Risoul.
Both Maddalena and Vars are already open, thus no problem (if no cataclysmic weather), and it avoids the risk that Izoard may remain closed, and if it's open, I guess it's better for racing as the top of Vars is far closer from the bottom of Risoul than the top of Izoard

this would give a profile like this, which seems to be a pretty decent mountain stage