2016 TdF, Stage 15: Bourg-en-Bresse → Culoz (160km)

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

what's quintana's plan to clawing 3 minutes back? he'll be losing tt to froome that's almost guaranteed.

His plan is the same as it has been all along. Minimize losses while Froome and his train are on top form, and hope that he cracks sometime in the third week.

The same as last year - and basically the only credible plan in his position.

If he keeps losing three minutes to Froome in the first two weeks, it's hardly a plan. He is just playing catch up all the time.

Next year Movistar just has to bring strong flat team with good time trialists who shield him all the time on the flats. I don't think he has much to do with all climber team.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

what's quintana's plan to clawing 3 minutes back? he'll be losing tt to froome that's almost guaranteed.

His plan is the same as it has been all along. Minimize losses while Froome and his train are on top form, and hope that he cracks sometime in the third week.

The same as last year - and basically the only credible plan in his position.

If he keeps losing three minutes to Froome in the first two weeks, it's hardly a plan. He is just playing catch up all the time.

Well what plan can stop you losing three minutes in the first two weeks against a guy who is: stronger on the climbs, stronger in time trials, stronger on the flat and stronger on descents?

All he can do is limit his losses against Froome in this form.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Re: Re:

Because nobody knows. Riders these days are to happy to settle for a podium rather than risking everything for the outside chance of a win. If the GC was close I might understand it but it isnt, Quintana is 3 minutes down and needs to act and act soon if he wants to win.

But they do know - they all have power meters. They know exactly what power they can sustain for what length of time. They know that if Poels is riding at nearly 6w/kg and is closing down attacks from Aru, Bardet and Valverde, with Froome also looking comfortable, then, at best it's a waste energy to attack, at worst it's going to cost you time.

It's obviously boring to watch, but the odds were so stacked against Quintana in a situation like that it would have been a major tactical error to go on a hard attack. He's doing the only realistic thing he can to try to win - minimize his losses when Sky and Froome are so imperiously strong and hope that they fade later in the race.

Regarding the podium, it's actually the opposite for Quintana. If he was content to ride for second, he probably would have attacked - because Yates was struggling and Mollema's level is kind of unknown. But he's not interested in them (at least for now) - he's only interested in getting the better of Froome.

Agree with this reasoning. It lacks spectacle, but using Valverde in feints to gauge Sky's power is probably their best bet. And keeping Valverde high in the GC is essential in that strategy, so burning him up on an attack on this stage is pointless.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Most irritating part of Sky's performance today for me was how they interferred with the fight for lower places on the podium and top five. By bringing back Aru and then Bardet, they did all the work Trek, Orica and BMC should have done, just because they could. And that is also the main reason structural changes (salary caps, smaller teams etc) are needed here and now. Such excessive amount of strenght in one team not only kills entertainment, but more importantly, has undue influence over the parts of the race of which that team has no direct interest in.

No team should be able to control an entire stage, regardless of its nature, let alone an entire GT.

 

[Galic Ho]

Re:

Another small victory from today's stage - TJVG lost more time.

Seconded.

Maybe BMC will be forced to attack with Tejay to enable Richie some options.

Somebody somewhere please, please attack!

It's like watching the movie Serenity and seeing Malcolm Reynolds FireFly space ship the Serenity leading a horde of Reaper ships at you and everyone just sits there stunned and thinks about what to do! In this example the Serenity is Sky and they're drilling it big time...

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

what's quintana's plan to clawing 3 minutes back? he'll be losing tt to froome that's almost guaranteed.

His plan is the same as it has been all along. Minimize losses while Froome and his train are on top form, and hope that he cracks sometime in the third week.

The same as last year - and basically the only credible plan in his position.

If he keeps losing three minutes to Froome in the first two weeks, it's hardly a plan. He is just playing catch up all the time.

Well what plan can stop you losing three minutes in the first two weeks against a guy who is: stronger on the climbs, stronger in time trials, stronger on the flat and stronger on descents?

All he can do is limit his losses against Froome in this form.

Well if he is limiting his losses why is he saying he is saving himself for the third week ? Without the crash on Ventoux he would have lost more time than he did. Losing one minute in crosswinds and on a descent is bad enough but then he gets dropped on the Ventoux where he is not supposed to get dropped. He does not have the form he had last year.

 

[Tonton]

What a win for Pantano! Brave guy. He suffered, he hung in there. Well deserved for him.

Hats off to Julian for his panache, and on the GC side to Aru and Bardet: at least they tried something.

 

[Irondan]

Re: Re:

Another small victory from today's stage - TJVG lost more time.

Seconded.

Maybe BMC will be forced to attack with Tejay to enable Richie some options.

Somebody somewhere please, please attack!

It's like watching the movie Serenity and seeing Malcolm Reynolds FireFly space ship the Serenity leading a horde of Reaper ships at you and everyone just sits there stunned and thinks about what to do! In this example the Serenity is Sky and they're drilling it big time...

Teej attacking? lol, when's the last time anyone has seen an attack by Teej in any race on the calendar?

I don't think that's really an option...

 

[Galic Ho]

Re: Re:

They did try. They sent Valverde on an attack. Presumably they told him, rather than just going all in and burning himself out, to ride just above his threshold, at the kind of pace that Quintana could sustain for the remainder of the climb. Once they saw Poels easily reel it in and Froome looking comfortable, they realised that it was hopeless Quintana trying to attack and that he'd likely end up losing time.

Intent and aggression is irrelevant if one rider and his team are putting out significantly more watts than everyone else.

Froome has first.

Everyone else is racing for second up until Froome cracks. That has not happened. Every rider other than Bardet, Valverde and Astana (who actually tried something) with multiple riders including Aru, was just riding for no time loss.

Sure there is a mountain time trial on Thursday (not sure which day it is) but that was kind of dull. It's like everyone was content with doing nothing.

If Quintana doesn't have it, let Valverde have a crack at the podium.

Mollema and Porte looked fairly good. Actually I was suprised Bardet went given he looked a bit glum. At least he tried. Quintana should try. Even if he loses time, he tried.

Oh how this race needed Alberto Contador. He'd try.

 

[saganftw]

Re: Re:

Another small victory from today's stage - TJVG lost more time.

Seconded.

Maybe BMC will be forced to attack with Tejay to enable Richie some options.

Somebody somewhere please, please attack!

It's like watching the movie Serenity and seeing Malcolm Reynolds FireFly space ship the Serenity leading a horde of Reaper ships at you and everyone just sits there stunned and thinks about what to do! In this example the Serenity is Sky and they're drilling it big time...

Teej attacking? lol, when's the last time anyone has seen an attack by Teej in any race on the calendar?

I don't think that's really an option...

this years tour de suisse

 

[This Charming Man]

Everyone who are still whining over Quintana not attacking should be embarrassed to call themselves a cycling fan. He obviously lacks the form and is up against a team riding a level above everyone else. What Sky is doing is insulting to every self-respecting cycling fan.

Quintana was supposed to be the main rival to Froome after Contador crashed out, and is now being scapegoated for not running repeatedly face first against a brick wall. Well, he did so. Twice. And paid for it. Appearantly, it wasn't enough. Idiotic doesn't even begin to describe such an attitude.

Quintana is racing for second, and is not doing a respectable job of that. Nibali criticized Quintana before...I thought arrogantly, but now I respect the opinn of Nibali, Quintana, should race, only as a domestique.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Most irritating part of Sky's performance today for me was how they interferred with the fight for lower places on the podium and top five. By bringing back Aru and then Bardet, they did all the work Trek, Orica and BMC should have done, just because they could. And that is also the main reason structural changes (salary caps, smaller teams etc) are needed here and now. Such excessive amount of strenght in one team not only kills entertainment, but more importantly, has undue influence over the parts of the race of which that team has no direct interest in.

No team should be able to control an entire stage, regardless of its nature, let alone an entire GT.

Agreed, it's such joyless racing. Then every now and again Froome will pull out a circus trick which looks great in a Vine or a GIF- allowing the July fans to eulogise about him. And ASO will be happy because they get the dramatic bits put into a five minutes highlights package which are shown on newspaper sites and global news all around the world.

But the real cycling fans who watch hours of each stage, looking forward to all the details of the race, all the mini-battles, are just left absolutely cold by the lack of competition and suffocating control over the race.

 

[saganftw]

Everyone who are still whining over Quintana not attacking should be embarrassed to call themselves a cycling fan. He obviously lacks the form and is up against a team riding a level above everyone else. What Sky is doing is insulting to every self-respecting cycling fan.

Quintana was supposed to be the main rival to Froome after Contador crashed out, and is now being scapegoated for not running repeatedly face first against a brick wall. Well, he did so. Twice. And paid for it. Appearantly, it wasn't enough. Idiotic doesn't even begin to describe such an attitude.

Quintana is racing for second, and is not doing a respectable job of that. Nibali criticized Quintana before...I thought arrogantly, but now I respect the opinn of Nibali, Quintana, should race, only as a domestique.

sigh

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

what's quintana's plan to clawing 3 minutes back? he'll be losing tt to froome that's almost guaranteed.

His plan is the same as it has been all along. Minimize losses while Froome and his train are on top form, and hope that he cracks sometime in the third week.

The same as last year - and basically the only credible plan in his position.

If he keeps losing three minutes to Froome in the first two weeks, it's hardly a plan. He is just playing catch up all the time.

Well what plan can stop you losing three minutes in the first two weeks against a guy who is: stronger on the climbs, stronger in time trials, stronger on the flat and stronger on descents?

All he can do is limit his losses against Froome in this form.

Well if he is limiting his losses why is he saying he is saving himself for the third week ? Without the crash on Ventoux he would have lost more time than he did. Losing one minute in crosswinds and on a descent is bad enough but then he gets dropped on the Ventoux where he is not supposed to get dropped. He does not have the form he had last year.

I don't disagree, but that's not a plan, that's lack of form. What plan could he have done to have lost less time so far? What other plan could he have executed, apart from waiting and hoping Froome fades in the final week?

 

[DFA123]

Everyone who are still whining over Quintana not attacking should be embarrassed to call themselves a cycling fan. He obviously lacks the form and is up against a team riding a level above everyone else. What Sky is doing is insulting to every self-respecting cycling fan.

Quintana was supposed to be the main rival to Froome after Contador crashed out, and is now being scapegoated for not running repeatedly face first against a brick wall. Well, he did so. Twice. And paid for it. Appearantly, it wasn't enough. Idiotic doesn't even begin to describe such an attitude.

Quintana is racing for second, and is not doing a respectable job of that. Nibali criticized Quintana before...I thought arrogantly, but now I respect the opinn of Nibali, Quintana, should race, only as a domestique.

He's clearly not racing for second. Every attack and tactic that Movistar have tried in the race so far has been to try and assess Froome and his form. Not once have they tried to put Yates or Mollema in difficulty - which would have been a far easier task.

If Froome shows no sign of weakening in the third week, then I guess we'll see Quintana shift his focus and try to fight for second. If and when that happens, I imagine he'll drop Yates and Mollema without much difficulty.

 

[spalco]

Quintana is racing for second, and is not doing a respectable job of that. Nibali criticized Quintana before...I thought arrogantly, but now I respect the opinn of Nibali, Quintana, should race, only as a domestique.

I disagree. What does another 2nd place mean for Quintana? Nothing. He's doing what he can, but he just doesn't have it.

It looks increasingly like Quintana just isn't who people hoped he was.

 

[Irondan]

Re: Re:

Another small victory from today's stage - TJVG lost more time.

Seconded.

Maybe BMC will be forced to attack with Tejay to enable Richie some options.

Somebody somewhere please, please attack!

It's like watching the movie Serenity and seeing Malcolm Reynolds FireFly space ship the Serenity leading a horde of Reaper ships at you and everyone just sits there stunned and thinks about what to do! In this example the Serenity is Sky and they're drilling it big time...

Teej attacking? lol, when's the last time anyone has seen an attack by Teej in any race on the calendar?

I don't think that's really an option...

this years tour de suisse

Funny, I watched this year's race and don't remember that at all. Doesn't matter if my hyperbole is incorrect, Teej just isn't strong enough to make an attack that sky can't reel in easily.

 

[aarononymous]

Apparently Team Sky already in contact with Pantano to sign him for next year

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

I miss the Giro.
What a contrast from racing to win to racing not to lose.
7-8 man teams would at least spread the talent around to other teams. Yet I could envision the richest teams still having the best talent just unable to take them all to the Tour.
But it's a start. Reminds me of Postal days.

In the Giro we had a GC leader who had no team.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

what's quintana's plan to clawing 3 minutes back? he'll be losing tt to froome that's almost guaranteed.

His plan is the same as it has been all along. Minimize losses while Froome and his train are on top form, and hope that he cracks sometime in the third week.

The same as last year - and basically the only credible plan in his position.

If he keeps losing three minutes to Froome in the first two weeks, it's hardly a plan. He is just playing catch up all the time.

I think Froome is gonna try to kill it on Emosson just to discourage any attempts of big attacks on Saint Jervais and Avoriaz.

 

[Põhja Konn]

I hope Aru grows stronger day by day and then uses his team to create some chaos next week. Astana doms should be relatively fresher than Sky's as today was the first time in the race the truly showed themselves.

For Quintana, Finhaut-Emosson is decisive. If he has recovered enough by then to drop Froome and get a decent gap, the game is on. If not, its time to reset the goals for Movistar.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Porte looked pretty tired on the last climb as well. Even Froome did not look that great but it's hard to tell by looks. Quintana never looks tired but obviously he is.

True, looks are often indicative of not much. And yeah, looking closely at it maybe Ritchie was cooked. Rewinding, I thought the feint by Froome might have been telling. It seemed to me only Quintana, Bardet and Mollema were alert to it, and Mollema immediately relaxed as soon as he made out it wasn't for real. Bardet, as we found out, had more heart than legs today. But Quintana kept himself primed for a few extra beats before relaxing. I think he had a little left, just not more than Froome. If Quintana wanted to settle for another second he could've put in a half-hearted attack and then worked with Froome to gap the rest. Maybe that would entertain some folks here? It would effectively end the MJ contest but at least you would get to see GC attacks that stuck?

And by the way, congrats to Pantano. That's the way you win. He wasn't the strongest rider today, but he exploited his advantages (downhills, sprint), didn't wheelsuck, got a great win. Chapeau.

 

[oronet commander]

Quintana and Movistar are waiting for Froome to fade... in 3-4 years. Then they'll get the Tour.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Quintana is racing for second, and is not doing a respectable job of that. Nibali criticized Quintana before...I thought arrogantly, but now I respect the opinn of Nibali, Quintana, should race, only as a domestique.

I disagree. What does another 2nd place mean for Quintana? Nothing. He's doing what he can, but he just doesn't have it.

It looks increasingly like Quintana just isn't who people hoped he was.

Big conclusions from a single underpar race which hasn't even finished yet.

 

[Fergoose]

Today was another great advert for why the sport needs a salary cap. It's pretty ruinous for action for Sky and, to a lesser extent Astana, to be stacked with super domestiques who could easily compete for a GC top 15 if they were a protected rider. You can't blame Sky for closing down Bardet, because they had more than enough talent and energy to do it.

I'd argue Poels, Henao, Landa, Rosa and possibily Fuglsang are all better at this stage it their career than the protected riders on Cannondale, Lampre and possibly Giant (if we say Barguil), FDJ (as Pinot's stock fades), Lotto Jumbo, Katusha and other Lotto (if they even have one). Imagine some of that superdomestique contesting the GC instead and top teams less able to control the race due to a team salary cap.