2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183km)

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

Much easier? Nah. You first have 1k at 5.8%, then 500m at 10,5%, then 400m at 5%. Most sprinters will be gone after this, and if some of them do get up there in front, they will have nothing left in the uphill finish. But you seem to believe otherwise. Guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

I think the difference between having 500m at 10% and 1km at 10% is pretty huge. It's the difference between a hard anaerobic effort and more of a vo2 max effort. This is kind of like the Cauberg - with a downhill section in the middle. And sprinters like Sagan, Matthews, Coquard, EBH, Alaphilippe have all contested AGR in recent years - after 250km and 4000m+ of hard climbing. When fresh they'll absolutely fly up it. The steep part is too far from the finish to give climbers a decent shot at it imo.

I must respond again to your post. Alaphilippe is not a sprinter, and not in the league of those mentioned beside him. I wont deny that he can beat them tomorrow, but they simply aren't the same type of riders. You watched that Dauphine stage where Alaphilippe finished ahead of some notable sprinters, but I assure you, he's not fast like them

If he attacks from the bottom of the climb then he has chance in my opinion. When somebody is going all out from the start of the climb there is no way that sprinters can cope with the pace.

 

[DFA123]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

I think this final climb is a bit underrated. It's slightly longer than 3 kilometers at about 5%. The cauberg is slightly longer than one kilometer at about 5%, so there is a big difference between those two. Moreover the finish here is uphill which IMO gives riders like Valverde another advantage since he can use his climbing abilities until the end while in AGR the final is completely flat. Coquard and Sagan have a chance but I think riders like Valverde and Alaphilippe are the favorites.

It's pretty flat before the final 10k tomorrow, unlike Amstel, which also has to be considered

Sadly the penultimate climb in the stage tomorrow is actually even harder than the penultimate climb in AGR, but that only shows how ridiculous the final of Amstel has become. Generally you are of course right, but nevertheless the stage tomorrow could still be pretty difficult because of wind, bad weather,... and again, it's not like the final climb is as hard as the cauberg, it's as hard as three caubergs directly after each other.

It's really not. Average gradient isn't important here. The important part is whether the sprinters can hang on during that steepest section. The Cauberg has over 400m at 10%, which is similar to the steepest part on the climb tomorrow. The last 500m are too gentle for a climber - they'll be going 30km/h+ up there so there will be too much benefit drafting for them to get away.

If you mean sprinters like Sagan, EBH, Matthews and Coquard, yes, they will probably be up there. Don't think anyone questions that possibility. But Greipel and Kristoff? I highly doubt that.

Agreed, I doubt those two will be up there as well. But I wouldn't write off at least one out and out sprinter lasting the distance - I think Bouhanni, for example, would have had a chance if he was riding. It depends as well if there is a lull at the top of that steeper section because no-one wants to stick their nose into the wind and there are not enough domestiques around. Certainly a possibility of that happening.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Much easier? Nah. You first have 1k at 5.8%, then 500m at 10,5%, then 400m at 5%. Most sprinters will be gone after this, and if some of them do get up there in front, they will have nothing left in the uphill finish. But you seem to believe otherwise. Guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

I think the difference between having 500m at 10% and 1km at 10% is pretty huge. It's the difference between a hard anaerobic effort and more of a vo2 max effort. This is kind of like the Cauberg - with a downhill section in the middle. And sprinters like Sagan, Matthews, Coquard, EBH, Alaphilippe have all contested AGR in recent years - after 250km and 4000m+ of hard climbing. When fresh they'll absolutely fly up it. The steep part is too far from the finish to give climbers a decent shot at it imo.

I must respond again to your post. Alaphilippe is not a sprinter, and not in the league of those mentioned beside him. I wont deny that he can beat them tomorrow, but they simply aren't the same type of riders. You watched that Dauphine stage where Alaphilippe finished ahead of some notable sprinters, but I assure you, he's not fast like them

If he attacks from the bottom of the climb then he has chance in my opinion. When somebody is going all out from the start of the climb there is no way that sprinters can cope with the pace.

Problem is that it is suicide to attack from the start of the climb, because it's too gentle. The peloton would be flying into it and averaging well over 35km/h for that first kilometre. Etixx could drive a really hard pace and get Alaphilippe at the front for the start of the steepest bit, but there is no way anyone can attack solo from the start of the climb against such a fresh bunch - they would be wasting far too much energy.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

Much easier? Nah. You first have 1k at 5.8%, then 500m at 10,5%, then 400m at 5%. Most sprinters will be gone after this, and if some of them do get up there in front, they will have nothing left in the uphill finish. But you seem to believe otherwise. Guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

I think the difference between having 500m at 10% and 1km at 10% is pretty huge. It's the difference between a hard anaerobic effort and more of a vo2 max effort. This is kind of like the Cauberg - with a downhill section in the middle. And sprinters like Sagan, Matthews, Coquard, EBH, Alaphilippe have all contested AGR in recent years - after 250km and 4000m+ of hard climbing. When fresh they'll absolutely fly up it. The steep part is too far from the finish to give climbers a decent shot at it imo.

I must respond again to your post. Alaphilippe is not a sprinter, and not in the league of those mentioned beside him. I wont deny that he can beat them tomorrow, but they simply aren't the same type of riders. You watched that Dauphine stage where Alaphilippe finished ahead of some notable sprinters, but I assure you, he's not fast like them

If he attacks from the bottom of the climb then he has chance in my opinion. When somebody is going all out from the start of the climb there is no way that sprinters can cope with the pace.

Problem is that it is suicide to attack from the start of the climb, because it's too gentle. The peloton would be flying into it and averaging well over 35km/h for that first kilometre. Etixx could drive a really hard pace and get Alaphilippe at the front for the start of the steepest bit, but there is no way anyone can attack solo from the start of the climb against such a fresh bunch - they would be wasting far too much energy.

Stages 3 and 4 are completely flat so I belive that some more explosive climbers might invest more energy than they usually would. If Alaphilippe is one of them we will see tomorrow. But what I'm sure of is that it isn't one for the sprinters. In my opinion only Sagan can do it if anyone.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Much easier? Nah. You first have 1k at 5.8%, then 500m at 10,5%, then 400m at 5%. Most sprinters will be gone after this, and if some of them do get up there in front, they will have nothing left in the uphill finish. But you seem to believe otherwise. Guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

I think the difference between having 500m at 10% and 1km at 10% is pretty huge. It's the difference between a hard anaerobic effort and more of a vo2 max effort. This is kind of like the Cauberg - with a downhill section in the middle. And sprinters like Sagan, Matthews, Coquard, EBH, Alaphilippe have all contested AGR in recent years - after 250km and 4000m+ of hard climbing. When fresh they'll absolutely fly up it. The steep part is too far from the finish to give climbers a decent shot at it imo.

I must respond again to your post. Alaphilippe is not a sprinter, and not in the league of those mentioned beside him. I wont deny that he can beat them tomorrow, but they simply aren't the same type of riders. You watched that Dauphine stage where Alaphilippe finished ahead of some notable sprinters, but I assure you, he's not fast like them

If he attacks from the bottom of the climb then he has chance in my opinion. When somebody is going all out from the start of the climb there is no way that sprinters can cope with the pace.

Of course Alaphilippe can win; he's among the favourites. But he's not going to win by attacking from the start of the climb. His best chance is for Etixx to split the race up as much as possible on the steepest bit, and for him to win from a reduced bunch on the uphill sprint to the line. Whether he can outkick Sagan, Matthews, EBH etc in that scenario is going to be tough.

 

[Punkan]

Here is the profile on Strava. Actually looks tougher than on the official profile. It has a part that is around 1k at about 8.5 %.

https://www.strava.com/segments/10724405

 

[LaFlorecita]

Even if sprinters could potentially survive, I expect Froome to try and take some seconds, which should blow them away.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Even if sprinters could potentially survive, I expect Froome to try and take some seconds, which should blow them away.

Exactly, there will be a high density of GC guys on the final ramp and their collective power will shed any sprinters left. Valverde has a good chance to win the stage.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Matthews and EBH both will be carrying injuries after bad crash today. Looks like it could be between Sagan, GVA and Alaphilippe. The whole stage doesn't look hard enough to me for Valverde to compete with the sprinters, but you never know with him.

Interesting to see what Etixx do. A really hard pace on the final climb suits Alaphilippe most out of the contenders. But it will also put the most time into Kittel - who is in a great position to get yellow later in the week if he can limit losses tomorrow.

Remind me when did Alaphilippe beat Valverde in uphill sprint? Or in any kind of sprint? So, if the stage is for Alaphilippe, then it is certainly for Valverde too. Although his form might be an issue...

Well, I'm not basing it on historical results. Have you seen Alaphilippe's sprinting this year? He's like Valverde was 12 years ago - basically mixing it with the best in the world even on flattish stages. For me Valverde would be massive favourite if this final climb came in a stage with 2000m+ climbing. Or even perhaps if it was in the second or third week of the Tour.

A 1.5km climb at the end of a flat stage when the whole peloton are fresh and absolutely flying is going to be too fast for Valverde though I think. Hopefully he'll give it a shot, but I wouldn't even be surprised if he just stayed in the peloton and cruised home.

Valverde is a better rider on almost any parameter - faster sprinter, smarter rider, better climber, better TT-ist etc. If he's in shape he will try his luck in the final, and I'm almost sure he will beat Alaphilippe, who has still much to learn.

Not that it matters much, since tomorrow is for Sagan. His epic win in TdS, where he launched and dropped all the GC guys on that last climb on stage 2, was very convincing.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Even if sprinters could potentially survive, I expect Froome to try and take some seconds, which should blow them away.

Exactly, there will be a high density of GC guys on the final ramp and their collective power will shed any sprinters left. Valverde has a good chance to win the stage.

I could not disagree with this more. Most GC riders will be desperately struggling to hold the wheels of the puncheurs and sprinters to minimize their time loss - not the other way round.

One other doubt I have about Valverde is whether or not he will want to stretch the race and make it really hard, which he will probably have to do to win; it could put Quintana in difficulty as he's not so explosive as the other GC riders.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

Valverde is a better rider on almost any parameter - faster sprinter, smarter rider, better climber, better TT-ist etc. If he's in shape he will try his luck in the final, and I'm almost sure he will beat Alaphilippe, who has still much to learn.

There has to be a question mark over Valverde for tomorrow IMO. He was far from impressive last year on the Huy stage (which was maybe sligthly different to tomorrow, but still should have suited him as well as any other rider in the peloton) and this year Alejandro's form is even more questionable after finishing the Giro.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Even if sprinters could potentially survive, I expect Froome to try and take some seconds, which should blow them away.

Exactly, there will be a high density of GC guys on the final ramp and their collective power will shed any sprinters left. Valverde has a good chance to win the stage.

I could not disagree with this more. Most GC riders will be desperately struggling to hold the wheels of the puncheurs and sprinters to minimize their time loss - not the other way round.

One other doubt I have about Valverde is whether or not he will want to stretch the race and make it really hard, which he will probably have to do to win; it could put Quintana in difficulty as he's not so explosive as the other GC riders.

I guess we'll see tomorrow. It's abit 50-50 in opinions right now.

I think climbers could shine if they want too, but I don't think they will because of the flat after the steep part.

 

[Anderis]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

GC guys can try to check if Contador is 100% fit after his crash.

 

[Inquitus]

Its 3 short enough ramps of varying difficulty, the speed the peleton will hit them at and the drafting would annul them to some degree you'd think. Looking at the run in on streetview it looks more like one for the sprinters who can go up hill a bit rather than the puncheurs. Having just looked at it I am going to go for Kristoff.

Kristoff e/w 80/1

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Even if sprinters could potentially survive, I expect Froome to try and take some seconds, which should blow them away.

Exactly, there will be a high density of GC guys on the final ramp and their collective power will shed any sprinters left. Valverde has a good chance to win the stage.

I could not disagree with this more. Most GC riders will be desperately struggling to hold the wheels of the puncheurs and sprinters to minimize their time loss - not the other way round.

One other doubt I have about Valverde is whether or not he will want to stretch the race and make it really hard, which he will probably have to do to win; it could put Quintana in difficulty as he's not so explosive as the other GC riders.

I guess we'll see tomorrow. It's abit 50-50 in opinions right now.

I think climbers could shine if they want too, but I don't think they will because of the flat after the steep part.

Last I saw you can get odds of 80/1 on Froome to win the stage. Could be a good each way bet for those who have more faith in the climbers than I do

Whatever happens, it's a great stage design to have so early in the race. Winner could potentially be a puncheur or a sprinter (or even a climber according to some )

 

[sir fly]

Does anyone believe in echelons tomorrow?

 

[Lexman]

GVA FTW

hope Sagan doesn't take yellow since that means Tinkoff will have already to work....

 

[pjthom22]

Gallopin, Dan Martin are couple more that could be there.

 

[London Hibs]

JRod is priced at 66/1 tomorrow with SkyBet who are paying out on the 1st 4 each way. Why is he such a big price?

He's won me bundles over the years and I may invest a little bit at that price.

 

[Beech Mtn]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

I think Fabian could have something to say about tomorrows stage!

Nah, let's hope there's no need to neutralize

 

[Bakkie]

Vakoc?

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

I think Fabian could have something to say about tomorrows stage!

It reminds of the finish at Seraing (?) a few years ago, where Sagan outsprinted Fabian a few seconds before a group of 20-30. Generally speaking, that stage was a bit harder and I don't think Fabian has the same maximum power any more. Sagan to repeat here. I think Bling and bAlaphilippe-gilbert will be his biggest rivals.

 

[Arredondo]

You never know with Valverde. Last year he was mediocre on the stage to Rodez, with a final which suited him down to the ground.

Sagan in good form will win this stage. Van Avermaet maybe the biggest challenger. But if Dan Martin is well placed, he can win too.

But i hope Purito will do a surprise attack and steal the stage + yellow jersey

 

[Punkan]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

I think Fabian could have something to say about tomorrows stage!

Think Canc will try something tomorrow. Maybe we will see an attack like the one he did on stage 1 in TdF 2012, the final up to Seraing (Not that different from tomorrows final.).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzw-96RkfL8

Oops, noticed Tank Engine mentioned Canc on the Seraing final 2012.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

I think Fabian could have something to say about tomorrows stage!

It reminds of the finish at Seraing (?) a few years ago, where Sagan outsprinted Fabian a few seconds before a group of 20-30. Generally speaking, that stage was a bit harder and I don't think Fabian has the same maximum power any more. Sagan to repeat here. I think Bling and bAlaphilippe-gilbert will be his biggest rivals.

Well, this spring he showed in glimpses that he can still put down the hammer, although not quite in the mighty "now I'm just gonna ride the rest of my wheel"-fashion. I would love to see Fabian try something, but I'm not sure he will do it tomorrow already. I haven't studied the rest of the stages enough to evaluate his chances, but I expect him to go in a breakaway on a stage like in 2014 (on the stage where TMartin went solo and won).

I agree about Sagan. He is stronger than everyone else on a finish like tomorrow.