2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183km)

[Keram]

IMO this one is one of the rare stages where Valverde and Sagan has equal chance of winning. Remind me last year Vuelta´s stage where Valverde beat Sagan. Maybe it was little bit harder stage but in the finale there was 9 climbers and Sagan in top 10 and tommorow could be the same.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2015_Stage4

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149985&c=6&stat_id=217

Sagan told after that stage that if he would know before the stage how hard that finale is he did not even try it. :lol: I hope 50 points and yellow is enough motivation to give it a shot.

 

[liamito]

Is Enger also a sprinter who could feature in this kind of arrivals? Tour of Norway results look promising, although hardly comparable ofcourse.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

Oops, noticed Tank Engine mentioned Canc on the Seraing final 2012.

We were probably posting at the same time

Well, this spring he showed in glimpses that he can still put down the hammer, although not quite in the mighty "now I'm just gonna ride the rest of my wheel"-fashion. I would love to see Fabian try something, but I'm not sure he will do it tomorrow already. I haven't studied the rest of the stages enough to evaluate his chances, but I expect him to go in a breakaway on a stage like in 2014 (on the stage where TMartin went solo and won).
.

I agree that his best chances will come on stages suited to supremely high-powered diesels. I'm sure that he has his eye on the Swiss stage (looks ideal for a breakaway and the finish is just hard enough). I hope he gives a grand farewell to the tour.

 

[echelon]

Valverde generally goes very well after racing a grand tour then resting up, always strong in La Vuelta and he did good rides in the Nationals. He's also not racing for GC this year so he can go all in on select stages . He was the best of the rest last year on Mur de Bretagne beating Sagan and Van Avermaet to 3rd and then he beat Sagan in the Vuelta so I expect him to show well. How hard the stage is raced and if he has to guide Quintana in the finish could be a factor.

I'm hoping it's an exciting final to the stage.

 

[saganftw]

i go with cheeky jesus herrada win,the favourites will be watching each other,he will be let go and before one of the big guys attacks he will have enough of an advantage to just hold on

sagan in yellow

 

[Escarabajo]

Fabian has no chance tomorrow.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

No way Cancellara takes this one.

 

[sir fly]

It's a tricky finish. Already the first part on wide road is difficult getting steeper towards the roundabout, but some heavier riders could survive it on high entering speed. Then they turn on smaller streets where the ascent becomes puncheur affair, requiring good kick in corners. Then, after the flat section, finishing ramp pretty much like the bottom part of ascent (actually, it is the same wide road - Voie de la Liberte).
Sagan will have a hard time keeping up with Ardennes type of riders..

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

Brilliant Job Praying Mantis. Thanks

+1!!

just as he did in the Giro... and eshnar..

 

[The Barb]

Re:

It's a tricky finish. Already the first part on wide road is difficult getting steeper towards the roundabout, but some heavier riders could survive it on high entering speed. Then they turn on smaller streets where the ascent becomes puncheur affair, requiring good kick in corners. Then, after the flat section, finishing ramp pretty much like the bottom part of ascent (actually, it is the same wide road - Voie de la Liberte).
Sagan will have a hard time keeping up with Ardennes type of riders..

Interesting. I would have thought the profile and your description paint a picture that suits Sagan ideally ... a short steep part to get rid of the few sprinters who are straight out faster than him, then a less steep ramp to the finish where those who are better climbers than him will have little hope of dropping him. Couple those matters with some technical aspects to the finish (obviously Sagan is technically superb and great at positioning himself) and I would've thought he could scarcely ask for a more suitable finish.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

Brilliant Job Praying Mantis. Thanks

+1!!

just as he did in the Giro... and eshnar..

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

It's a tricky finish. Already the first part on wide road is difficult getting steeper towards the roundabout, but some heavier riders could survive it on high entering speed. Then they turn on smaller streets where the ascent becomes puncheur affair, requiring good kick in corners. Then, after the flat section, finishing ramp pretty much like the bottom part of ascent (actually, it is the same wide road - Voie de la Liberte).
Sagan will have a hard time keeping up with Ardennes type of riders..

Interesting. I would have thought the profile and your description paint a picture that suits Sagan ideally ... a short steep part to get rid of the few sprinters who are straight out faster than him, then a less steep ramp to the finish where those who are better climbers than him will have little hope of dropping him. Couple those matters with some technical aspects to the finish (obviously Sagan is technically superb and great at positioning himself) and I would've thought he could scarcely ask for a more suitable finish.

You've misunderstood. The part after roundabout doesn't suit him at all.
The part before roundabout is where he'll get rid of sprinters. The part from roundabout (through corners) to the flat is where puncheurs will try to get rid of him.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re:

Here is the profile on Strava. Actually looks tougher than on the official profile. It has a part that is around 1k at about 8.5 %.

https://www.strava.com/segments/10724405

interesting to see W. Anacona clocking 3rd best time just yesterday!!....

 

[Fight.The.Power]

I reckon if Cav was honest he would admit that's the best win ever

 

[aarononymous]

Pantano to have a go?

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

It's a tricky finish. Already the first part on wide road is difficult getting steeper towards the roundabout, but some heavier riders could survive it on high entering speed. Then they turn on smaller streets where the ascent becomes puncheur affair, requiring good kick in corners. Then, after the flat section, finishing ramp pretty much like the bottom part of ascent (actually, it is the same wide road - Voie de la Liberte).
Sagan will have a hard time keeping up with Ardennes type of riders..

Interesting. I would have thought the profile and your description paint a picture that suits Sagan ideally ... a short steep part to get rid of the few sprinters who are straight out faster than him, then a less steep ramp to the finish where those who are better climbers than him will have little hope of dropping him. Couple those matters with some technical aspects to the finish (obviously Sagan is technically superb and great at positioning himself) and I would've thought he could scarcely ask for a more suitable finish.

You've misunderstood. The part after roundabout doesn't suit him at all.
The part before roundabout is where he'll get rid of sprinters. The part from roundabout (through corners) to the flat is where puncheurs will try to get rid of him.

I'm not sure I misunderstand so much as disagree. I think the chances of Sagan not being about to keep up with the Ardennes type riders after the roundabout are slim to none. That's not to say he will definitely win, of course, as he can be beaten on uphill sprint finishes like this (van Avermart being an obvious possibility) but I don't see him not being able to keep up.

 

[hfer07]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

that last bump could be interesting IF one of the big names try to rattle the peloton a bit. In a different scenario, I'd say Henao should be allowed to go FTW. Can Tom Dumoulin do a Vuelta flashback and win this stage? - Can Purito try something? Will Pantano be up there?

BTW - for some reason I see Froome attacking - don't know why but he'll try to gain every second from Contador & Nairo in the 1st week at all costs- Plus he'll test how Contador recovered from the crash.

 

[NKwm8j2N]

Re:

Is Enger also a sprinter who could feature in this kind of arrivals?

Yes, at least according to himself. He felt great yesterday, was behind a crash in the sprint, and immediately looked forward to today's stage. Should probably be considered ahead of someone like Kristoff, but of course, say, top5 is a very tall order.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

D. Martin FTW... coming from Ala's wheel... after all they'll try to control for Kittel in the next 2 anyway...

 

[Robert5091]

Can see Sky and Moviestar going crazy into the final climb - praying for a crash free day!

 

[Campervan man]

Nobody mentioned Nibali to attack off the main group and stay a few seconds ahead? I see Dan Martin as a guy to watch. I'm not sure if Froome and Sky can inflict time gaps to Contador here, there best chance is probably with cross winds. Let's hope it's an exciting stage with possible cross winds and a crash free final.

 

[Praying Mantis]

Re: 2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183

Brilliant Job Praying Mantis. Thanks

+1!!

just as he did in the Giro... and eshnar..

Thank you, but the Giro was all Eshnar's hard work that others quoted, no credit to me. I've only done the Dauphiné previously.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

It's a tricky finish. Already the first part on wide road is difficult getting steeper towards the roundabout, but some heavier riders could survive it on high entering speed. Then they turn on smaller streets where the ascent becomes puncheur affair, requiring good kick in corners. Then, after the flat section, finishing ramp pretty much like the bottom part of ascent (actually, it is the same wide road - Voie de la Liberte).
Sagan will have a hard time keeping up with Ardennes type of riders..

Interesting. I would have thought the profile and your description paint a picture that suits Sagan ideally ... a short steep part to get rid of the few sprinters who are straight out faster than him, then a less steep ramp to the finish where those who are better climbers than him will have little hope of dropping him. Couple those matters with some technical aspects to the finish (obviously Sagan is technically superb and great at positioning himself) and I would've thought he could scarcely ask for a more suitable finish.

You've misunderstood. The part after roundabout doesn't suit him at all.
The part before roundabout is where he'll get rid of sprinters. The part from roundabout (through corners) to the flat is where puncheurs will try to get rid of him.

I'm not sure I misunderstand so much as disagree. I think the chances of Sagan not being about to keep up with the Ardennes type riders after the roundabout are slim to none. That's not to say he will definitely win, of course, as he can be beaten on uphill sprint finishes like this (van Avermart being an obvious possibility) but I don't see him not being able to keep up.

Very much this. No way Sagan gets dropped here. He wouldn't get dropped here if it was at the end of a classic, let alone at the end of a flat stage.

 

[Punkan]

Re:

D. Martin FTW... coming from Ala's wheel... after all they'll try to control for Kittel in the next 2 anyway...

Front the front page. D. Martin:

It’s going to be chaos. It’s not hard enough for me but I want to go into it thinking about a stage result because I don’t want to lose time. It’s a tricky final and it’s more about positioning than the legs. It’s like Fleche but nowhere near as hard. We’ll go into the final climb really fast and there will be splits. If it’s aggressive then it’s going to be interesting. We have Julian and he’s faster than me in the uphill sprint.

Downplays his chances. But I think he will be up there. In a finish like this he will probably try to take some seconds on his GC rivals. Looked great in Dauphine btw.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

D. Martin FTW... coming from Ala's wheel... after all they'll try to control for Kittel in the next 2 anyway...

Front the front page. D. Martin:

It’s going to be chaos. It’s not hard enough for me but I want to go into it thinking about a stage result because I don’t want to lose time. It’s a tricky final and it’s more about positioning than the legs. It’s like Fleche but nowhere near as hard. We’ll go into the final climb really fast and there will be splits. If it’s aggressive then it’s going to be interesting. We have Julian and he’s faster than me in the uphill sprint.

Downplays his chances. But I think he will be up there. In a finish like this he will probably try to take some seconds on his GC rivals. Looked great in Dauphine btw.

He's downplaying his chances because, like he said, it's too easy for him. It's one for the sprinters, and some GC guys may hang on to the front and gain a handful of seconds if a split occurs.