2016 TdF, Stage 2: Saint-Lô → Cherbourg-en-Cotentin (183km)

[Red Rick]

Very hard to say Sagan is not the favourite for tomorrow. He's done great on much harder finishes.

 

[Punkan]

Re: Re:

D. Martin FTW... coming from Ala's wheel... after all they'll try to control for Kittel in the next 2 anyway...

Front the front page. D. Martin:

It’s going to be chaos. It’s not hard enough for me but I want to go into it thinking about a stage result because I don’t want to lose time. It’s a tricky final and it’s more about positioning than the legs. It’s like Fleche but nowhere near as hard. We’ll go into the final climb really fast and there will be splits. If it’s aggressive then it’s going to be interesting. We have Julian and he’s faster than me in the uphill sprint.

Downplays his chances. But I think he will be up there. In a finish like this he will probably try to take some seconds on his GC rivals. Looked great in Dauphine btw.

He's downplaying his chances because, like he said, it's too easy for him. It's one for the sprinters, and some GC guys may hang on to the front and gain a handful of seconds if a split occurs.

Well, I didn't say he was going to win. Also think some of the puncheurs will try something on the steep part to put pressure on sprinters like Sagan, EBH, Matthews and Coquard. Still think Sagan is the clear favorite.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

SuperSagan for the win.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

D. Martin FTW... coming from Ala's wheel... after all they'll try to control for Kittel in the next 2 anyway...

Front the front page. D. Martin:

It’s going to be chaos. It’s not hard enough for me but I want to go into it thinking about a stage result because I don’t want to lose time. It’s a tricky final and it’s more about positioning than the legs. It’s like Fleche but nowhere near as hard. We’ll go into the final climb really fast and there will be splits. If it’s aggressive then it’s going to be interesting. We have Julian and he’s faster than me in the uphill sprint.

Downplays his chances. But I think he will be up there. In a finish like this he will probably try to take some seconds on his GC rivals. Looked great in Dauphine btw.

He's downplaying his chances because, like he said, it's too easy for him. It's one for the sprinters, and some GC guys may hang on to the front and gain a handful of seconds if a split occurs.

Well, I didn't say he was going to win. Also think some of the puncheurs will try something on the steep part to put pressure on sprinters like Sagan, EBH, Matthews and Coquard. Still think Sagan is the clear favorite.

Yep, those four must all be among the favourites. It will be interesting to see how Alaphilippe plays it out, and Valverde as well if he decides to go for it. I guess they'd leave it for the last uphill drag and hope to just edge the sprinters out by going early from there.

I think Richeze could be another dark horse for the win, he was climbing really well in Suisse and is a bit lighter than most of the other sprinters, so will have a bit of an advantage uphill.

 

[Punkan]

Competition was much weaker, but EBH won on a similiar finish in Tour of Oman this year (stage 2 in Quriyat), beating GVA. That finish was actually a bit harder than the one today (2.8k at 7%). Confident EBH will be up there today, but if he is, Sagan will also be, and EBH won't beat Sagan.

 

[lenric]

Froome to win seconds on both Quintana and Contador (obviously). Nibali will lose seconds too, maybe Aru, but less than the last ones.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Don't be surprised if Contador doesn't lose any time at all today.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Competition was much weaker, but EBH won on a similiar finish in Tour of Oman this year (stage 2 in Quriyat), beating GVA. That finish was actually a bit harder than the one today (2.8k at 7%). Confident EBH will be up there today, but if he is, Sagan will also be, and EBH won't beat Sagan.

The thing about Sagan, while rightly considered favourite, is that he rarely wins this type of finish in big races. When was the last time he acutally won an uphill sprint like this against a high quality field? 2012? I wouldn't be too surprised if someone like EBH timed his sprint better and took the win. Sagan seems to get a bit edgy and lets the pressure of expectation get to him a bit much when he's outright favourite - often launching too early.

 

[blaxland]

Sagan or Allaphillipe but if Matthews is still there maybe him?also think valverde might want this stage as he is riding for Quintana this TDF.

 

[lenric]

Re:

Don't be surprised if Contador doesn't lose any time at all today.

I doubt. Yesterday's fall might take a tool on him.

 

[Punkan]

Re: Re:

Competition was much weaker, but EBH won on a similiar finish in Tour of Oman this year (stage 2 in Quriyat), beating GVA. That finish was actually a bit harder than the one today (2.8k at 7%). Confident EBH will be up there today, but if he is, Sagan will also be, and EBH won't beat Sagan.

The thing about Sagan, while rightly considered favourite, is that he rarely wins this type of finish in big races. When was the last time he acutally won an uphill sprint like this against a high quality field? 2012? I wouldn't be too surprised if someone like EBH timed his sprint better and took the win. Sagan seems to get a bit edgy and lets the pressure of expectation get to him a bit much when he's outright favourite - often launching too early.

You have a point. But in my view Sagan has reach another level since the Worlds last year and seems stronger and more confident than ever. In Le Havre last year Stybar surprised him and everyone waited for Sagan to go after Stybar. Stybar won and Sagan came 2nd. Think he will be more attentive today, hell, he might even do a hard attack himself on the steep section so he can be in control when the uphill sprint begins. Anyhow, it will be interesting to see what actually happens. We have speculated enough now.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

Don't be surprised if Contador doesn't lose any time at all today.

I doubt. Yesterday's fall might take a tool on him.

It's just a nasty scrape and the man's a multiple-time Grand Tour winner. He might lose time, sure, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it.

 

[SeriousSam]

Any tricky obstacles today where riders prone to crashing will have to be extra cautious?

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

Don't be surprised if Contador doesn't lose any time at all today.

I doubt. Yesterday's fall might take a tool on him.

It's just a nasty scrape and the man's a multiple-time Grand Tour winner. He might lose time, sure, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it.

Depends on the night of course but I agree. If one man can handle pain and misfortune in this peloton, it is him

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Any tricky obstacles today where riders prone to crashing will have to be extra cautious?

Get out

 

[Sartorius]

I don't think Valverde will go for a stage win today. He would probably end up in yellow and Moviestar would have to work in next few stages. He will stay will Quintana and guide him to the finish line same like on 3rd stage last year (Huy).
My guess is Alaphilippe.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Don't be surprised if Contador doesn't lose any time at all today.

I doubt. Yesterday's fall might take a tool on him.

It's just a nasty scrape and the man's a multiple-time Grand Tour winner. He might lose time, sure, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it.

Depends on the night of course but I agree. If one man can handle pain and misfortune in this peloton, it is him

He can even win the Vuelta with a broken leg, so no problem

 

[liamito]

Re: Re:

Is Enger also a sprinter who could feature in this kind of arrivals?

Yes, at least according to himself. He felt great yesterday, was behind a crash in the sprint, and immediately looked forward to today's stage. Should probably be considered ahead of someone like Kristoff, but of course, say, top5 is a very tall order.

Thanks, I don't know his qualities very well yet.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

I don't think Valverde will go for a stage win today. He would probably end up in yellow and Moviestar would have to work in next few stages. He will stay will Quintana and guide him to the finish line same like on 3rd stage last year (Huy).
My guess is Alaphilippe.

Last year he was not good enough to win on Huy. He progressed during the Tour. But Purito and Froome were better that day.

 

[King Boonen]

Barguil is worth a sneaky bet here. Young Frenchman in Yellow, really hope so!

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

He can even win the vuelta while not being the strongest!

Too soon Arredondo?

 

[PolkaKylling]

Rooting for EBH!
Wondering if Samuel Dumoulin will go for at as well. Seems to be in good shape, and usually does well on finales like this one.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

EBH?

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Weather doesn't look great at the start.

 

[GP Blanco]

Re:

Rooting for EBH!
Wondering if Samuel Dumoulin will go for at as well. Seems to be in good shape, and usually does well on finales like this one.

Probably he will work for Bardet and Vuillermoz.