2017 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis

[the asian]

Fantastic work Eshnar !

The key will be whether MT Etna & Mortirolo/Stelvio could be raced.

 

[Simurgh]

Re: Re:

Definitely an enjoyable read, well done!

But could someone tell me, what the "TV" and "R" points on the stage profiles mean? I've had my assumptions, but I need to know

Traguardo Volante = TV (intermediate sprint)
R is the feed zone, I think perhaps it stands for riposo or something.

Thanks eshnar

Rifornimento.

Thanks, I am not sure why I'd always assumed it was riposo. Just made sense in a way I guess.

Thanks again for the analysis

Thanks for making it clear! Everything makes sense now

 

[Summoned]

Tremendous appreciation and profuse thank you for your work, Eshnar.

 

[Ramira]

Great work, thanks so much.

Now I really can't wait for the racing to start.

 

[Fernandez]

WOW, this race has some serious mountains. Difficult to see Quintana defeated here.

 

[Valv.Piti]

6 days guys and we are not treated to some useless foreign start for once!

 

[Gigs_98]

Thanks Eshnar. Great job, as always. Every year this thread marks the start for my big Giro hype. I'm really looking forward to the race, let's hope it will be as good as in the last two years.

 

[portugal11]

Finally the biggest and my favourite race will start!! So happy to see a world class gt rider like quintana ride il giro. I'm sick of seeing nibali take some fraudulent wins like tour 2014, giro 2016 and vuelta 2010. Unfortunately contador will ride le tour because (bar froome) he is the only one who could beat quintana in a gt

 

[Rollthedice]

A rest day after three stages then boom, Etna.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

A rest day after three stages then boom, Etna.

Yeah, I think etna will destroy many gc ambitions

 

[Valv.Piti]

How hard is Etna from this side? I cant really figure out how hard its gonna be, its looks a tad easier than Monte Quintanillo.

 

[rhubroma]

Can't understand the gripe with the course. They've tried to honor the champions of yore and pass through every region.

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Can't understand the gripe with the course. They've tried to honor the champions of yore and pass through every region.

no they didn't. That's the problem. They did honor 3 champions (Coppi, Bartali and Pantani), the others have been completely neglected and I had to spend quite a lot of time to come up with any connection to celebrate other champions in other stages. As a very clear example. stage 15 passes through the hometown of Gimondi. This is clearly NOT an intended tribute, as they don't even indicate the town in the profile, nor anywhere else.
As for the regions, no, they left out Campania, Lazio, Marche, Liguria and Valle d'Aosta (5 out of 20), while they spend 2 stages hanging around two valleys in Trentino and other two stages to go from Forli' to Tortona. Covering all Italy was clearly not the plan.

 

[rhubroma]

Re: Re:

Can't understand the gripe with the course. They've tried to honor the champions of yore and pass through every region.

no they didn't. That's the problem. They did honor 3 champions (Coppi, Bartali and Pantani), the others have been completely neglected and I had to spend quite a lot of time to come up with any connection to celebrate other champions in other stages. As a very clear example. stage 15 passes through the hometown of Gimondi. This is clearly NOT an intended tribute, as they don't even indicate the town in the profile, nor anywhere else.
As for the regions, no, they left out Campania, Lazio, Marche, Liguria and Valle d'Aosta (5 out of 20), while they spend 2 stages hanging around two valleys in Trentino and other two stages to go from Forli' to Tortona. Covering all Italy was clearly not the plan.

Well, then, it's who paid the most to have the Giro come though.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: Re:

Well, then, it's who paid the most to have the Giro come though.

yep. As always. Only this time the result is inferior to the last two years.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

A rest day after three stages then boom, Etna.

Etna and boom shouldn't be in the same sentence.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

How hard is Etna from this side? I cant really figure out how hard its gonna be, its looks a tad easier than Monte Quintanillo.

It's a very irregular, tough climb. Some very steep sections and then flat parts, but the steep sections can make damage. Coming so early in the Giro there will be gaps.
I drove through this side last September and I hope they resurfaced the first part because the road was bad.


As always, thanks Eshnar for the amazing work.

 

[Red Rick]

Etna will be raced hard, unless nobody wants it raced hard. I could imagine Quintana maybe waiting for Blockhaus if he's not 100% yet.

 

[SafeBet]

Nibali/Sky should absolutely be 100% come Etna. They need to attack Quintana early in the race if they want to have a chance.
Quintana ha a history of starting GTs not in top shape, and this should the case even in this Giro knowing he's going for the double.

 

[Gigs_98]

Etna would be a HC climb, so yeah thats one hell of a mtf for stage 4. I think there will be pretty big time gaps. If someone feels good he just has to attack there, because you can almost be 100% sure that at least one favorite won't be in his top shape yet. Last year Nibali lost about 20 seconds on freakin Tom Dumoulin on the first mtf and attacks only started very close to the finish. Chaves might have won the Giro if he and his team had made the race hard on the last climb. And that climb was way easier than Etna.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Nibali/Sky should absolutely be 100% come Etna. They need to attack Quintana early in the race if they want to have a chance.
Quintana ha a history of starting GTs not in top shape, and this should the case even in this Giro knowing he's going for the double.

I think Landa will do his best to cut short as soon as possible Thomas' aspirations for Giro, Nibali will defend like Bonucci against Messi and Quintana will play it safe.

 

[Arredondo]

Such a great preview Eshnar! So much cycling knowledge in your analysis

At least you can say it's an interesting Giro: in a way that the route is a little but underwhelming comparing Zomegnan-years, but also last year. Bormio and Ortisei stages could create carnage, but the fact the toughest climb is at the end maybe invites defensive racing instead of attacking from afar.

I guess Etna-stage will tell a lot. If Nibali/Kruijswijk/Landa or some other GC rider is able to put Quintana into difficulty there, we will have a race. But if no one is able to drop the Colombian in the first week, i think we will get a boring last week.

 

[Red Rick]

Etna would be a HC climb, so yeah thats one hell of a mtf for stage 4. I think there will be pretty big time gaps. If someone feels good he just has to attack there, because you can almost be 100% sure that at least one favorite won't be in his top shape yet. Last year Nibali lost about 20 seconds on freakin Tom Dumoulin on the first mtf and attacks only started very close to the finish. Chaves might have won the Giro if he and his team had made the race hard on the last climb. And that climb was way easier than Etna.

Tbf, Nibali had just attacked himself and blown up a bit. The Dumoulin move was sort of a suprise attack, and quite a few people lost some time to him that day. Dumoulin can really be a beast on the shallower climbs on a good day.

 

[Gigs_98]

Etna would be a HC climb, so yeah thats one hell of a mtf for stage 4. I think there will be pretty big time gaps. If someone feels good he just has to attack there, because you can almost be 100% sure that at least one favorite won't be in his top shape yet. Last year Nibali lost about 20 seconds on freakin Tom Dumoulin on the first mtf and attacks only started very close to the finish. Chaves might have won the Giro if he and his team had made the race hard on the last climb. And that climb was way easier than Etna.

Tbf, Nibali had just attacked himself and blown up a bit. The Dumoulin move was sort of a suprise attack, and quite a few people lost some time to him that day. Dumoulin can really be a beast on the shallower climbs on a good day.

I honestly think Nibali's attack was just a very bad excuse for his time loss. He was in the wind alone for what? 10 seconds? Thats no excuse to get dropped by almost every gc rider of the race on the last less than a km long bump at the end. Without his attack his time loss maybe could have been smaller but that doesn't change the fact that he was very vulnerable that day and might have lost much more time if he had been set under pressure.

 

[spiritualride]

How often though this decade do GC riders push it early on even when it makes so much tactical sense to do so? I have no faith in any of the teams management that they even know what the phrase "loss aversion bias" means.

edit: I have to say thank you to the OP for their awesome work !