2017 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis

[deValtos]

Re:

How often though this decade do GC riders push it early on even when it makes so much tactical sense to do so? I have no faith in any of the teams management that they even know what the phrase "loss aversion bias" means.

Yup pretty much. Unless a rider is on super form like Contador in 2011 Etna or Froome in a first mountain stage of a TDF its always conservative. Quintana would at this moment seem to be the strongest but ofc he won't go since he's aiming for the double and well he probably wouldn't have attacked anyways even without the TDF. :lol:

Could go to someone like Zakarin who nips off in the last km somehow unmarked.

Though its for sure hard enough that one of the big favorites will get dropped, I have a slight concern that it could turn out to be Nibali ...

 

[Breh]

He kinda has to attack considering the 67km of itt

 

[deValtos]

Re:

He kinda has to attack considering the 67km of itt

All I'm saying is prepare yourself for 10 pages of people typing "Quintanas gotta attack! Why's he not attacking?" on the Etna stage.

To be fair I actually don't think he needs to go right on stage 4, I think he can be a bit conservative. (Not TDF Quintana conservative mind you though.)

 

[hfer07]

Superb job Eshnar!!! thanks a lot!!!

I'm so looking forward to Il Giro!!

 

[Pantani_lives]

Thanks for the extensive preview, Eshnar. It's the ideal overview of the stages!

It's a rather classical GT with the first and second week in the wrong order. The first week will make clear who the candidates for the final victory are. The time trials will be very important for Nibali if he wants to take time on Quintana. The final mountain stages aren't as tough as five or ten years ago, but they have potential for long range attacks. Adam Yates is a contender too if he has the shape of last year's Tour.I wonder what Kruijswijk will do. He might expell the demons from last year, but he might also be the new Igor Anton: someone who almost wins a GT, crashes, and never reaches that level again.

 

[Climbing]

Re:

OMG I finally finished this thing.

It's past midnight and I didn't proof read it (because you know, sometimes tl:dr applies to the writer too...), so please tell me about mistakes/typo. I'll probably fix it tomorrow.

You're the man. :exclaim:

 

[Eshnar]

Correction about stage 9, The Blockhaus has already been climbed from Roccamorice, although in both cases far from the finish, in 1970 and 1973.

 

[spiritualride]

Re: Re:

He kinda has to attack considering the 67km of itt

All I'm saying is prepare yourself for 10 pages of people typing "Quintanas gotta attack! Why's he not attacking?" on the Etna stage.

To be fair I actually don't think he needs to go right on stage 4, I think he can be a bit conservative. (Not TDF Quintana conservative mind you though.)

Why would it be a wiser decision to not attack on Etna? Not even try a little dig or two? I'm not sure what you mean by "needs to".

 

[Forever The Best]

Oropa, Valdengo and Piancavallo stages are pathetic.
The Ortisei and Asiago stages could have been much much better as well. And isn't there enough room for a finish at the top of Blockhaus?

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

And isn't there enough room for a finish at the top of Blockhaus?

They planned the whole climb for 2009, but had to cut the stage, because they realized, that there isn't enough space and the roads are very narrow. I also heard, that it doesn't make sense to resurface anything there (which would be only for cycling) due to the many earthquakes in the region.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Oropa, Valdengo and Piancavallo stages are pathetic.
The Ortisei and Asiago stages could have been much much better as well. And isn't there enough room for a finish at the top of Blockhaus?

Piancavallo isn't that bad, its a very good MTF in itself, it reminds me a bit of the Grossglockner stage that Rujano won.

 

[hazaran]

I wonder if people will be filling their bidons and bikes with lead for stage 21, that must be net downhill

 

[spiritualride]

For quick reference, this page shows the profile of every stage and loads quickly. Doesn't have the climb details though: http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=171047&c=4&code=event-event-all-stage-profiles

I wonder if people will be filling their bidons and bikes with lead for stage 21, that must be net downhill

A downhill gradient of 0.22% is hardly downhill ..

 

[portugal11]

Thanks eshnar. The only negative point is that your analysis showed how bad this route is for a 100th edition... i'm so sad...

 

[Vesica]

Excellent work Eshnar! Very nice to read

 

[shalgo]

To this day, RCS celebrates this stage constantly by trolling hard with their GPS gaps.

Nice touch.

 

[shalgo]

I wonder if the organizers will honour the 1984 Giro by having a helicopter fly close to the ground behind Nibali and in front of Pinot during the final TT?

 

[deValtos]

Re:

I wonder if the organizers will honour the 1984 Giro by having a helicopter fly close to the ground behind Nibali and in front of Pinot during the final TT?

My favourite was when Marco Pinotti won the TT because he was drafting 1 meter behind a motorbike for 20km. It was so absurd I still remember it after 5 years.

 

[diegocamilo410]

This is the analysis of Quintana: http://www.marca.com/ciclismo/giro-italia/2017/04/27/59020637268e3e25078b4606.html

 

[AlexNYC]

Re:

This is the analysis of Quintana: http://www.marca.com/ciclismo/giro-italia/2017/04/27/59020637268e3e25078b4606.html

Interesting. I do wish Nairo would stop broadcasting his strategy to everyone before the race has even started. Anyone who has been paying attention will know now to attack him on Mt Etna.

 

[Valv.Piti]

It can hardly be a surprise to anyone I think. Laying your tactic out there, tell how and what you will do it and execute it, I like it.. If anything, I think it shows confidence in own abilities.

 

[May0maniac]

The best way tp dfescribe Piancavallo would probably be "the Italian version of Pierre-Saint-Martin".
Stage 15 is the big letdown, if they made a proper Lombardia stage it would make the whole race better.
A bit too many mountains in the 3rd week and I still wish that they would have used an other sie of the Monte Grappa, this side from Possango would have been great and you wouldn't have to change a lot when it comes to the rest of the stage, but they wanted to use the "original" side of the Monte Grappa, the first one that was ever raced in the Giro (same with then Mortirolo), so it makes sense.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Awesome as always Eshnar !

 

[Flamin]

Slowly waking up from and digesting the classics-are-over-hangover, this sure helps. Great read.

Though it doesn't change that the route is pretty poor, unfortunately. Might as well skip the whole 2nd week.

 

[spiritualride]

Re:

Oropa, Valdengo and Piancavallo stages are pathetic.
The Ortisei and Asiago stages could have been much much better as well. And isn't there enough room for a finish at the top of Blockhaus?

What's wrong with the Valdengo stage 15? If there were no MTFs then this one could have potentially had good GC action. Also stages 18 and 20 (Ortisei and Asiago) I wonder what they should have done differently.

Maybe on stage 18, not have that last lap of Ortisei and instead finish at 103km would be better I think. I like the 15 extra km on stage 20 after the Foza climb. The typical MTF watt/kg slugfest that decides grand tours is really bland... wish there were more GC relevant stages that weren't MTFs like stage 20.