2017 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis

[Netserk]

I find the idea of timed segments, or that is to say prizes based on them, absolutely alien to road racing as it is and should be. I'd have preferred either a sprint at the bottom of the descents, similar to the GPM, or a significant descent as part of an ITT. As such, I am glad that it's gone, but I wouldn't mind if a MTT went up AND down a mountain.

 

[rhubroma]

Re: Re:

So yeah, I didn't like the format of the competition so I don't mind that it got scrapped, but I find all this uproar quite hysterical, or at best, a very clear example of tunnel-vision.

To the bold, not at all. Hysterical? You do realize Wouter Weyland died in crash on a descent in the race just 6 years ago. You will also recall the Spanish rider whose career was ended when he went over a cliff in another recent Giro and barely escaped alive. Tunnel-vision? That's an ironic reverse myopia. We all know they will be flying down and taking risks, but that's not the point and of course why I said "one crosses their fingers" not hand out prizes. The point is that Vegni has demonstrated a complete insensitivity to the memory of those unfortunate riders by thinking it a good idea to market the descenders' exploits.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: Re:

So yeah, I didn't like the format of the competition so I don't mind that it got scrapped, but I find all this uproar quite hysterical, or at best, a very clear example of tunnel-vision.

To the bold, not at all. Hysterical? You do realize Wouter Weyland died in crash on a descent in the race just 6 years ago. You will also recall the Spanish rider whose career was ended when he went over a cliff in another recent Giro and barely escaped alive. Tunnel-vision? That's an ironic reverse myopia. We all know they will be flying down and taking risks, but that's not the point and of course why I said "one crosses their fingers" not hand out prizes. The point is that Vegni has demonstrated a complete insensitivity to the memory of those unfortunate riders by thinking it a good idea to market the descenders' exploits.

Well I totally agree it was a bad idea, marketing-wise. I simply do not believe it would expose the riders to any risk bigger than what they already face, which is what some riders claim.

 

[fauniera]

Re: Re:

You know there's already a pretty big prize for descending in the Giro, is called Maglia Rosa and brings also quite a lot more money than the prize they cancelled. Just as an example, the queen stage will end with a difficult and long descent, presumably full of spectators from the previous climb. The winner will win a stage (again, much bigger incentive) and every second will count, going directly to the GC. There are plenty of riders in history who won or lost the overall of the Giro on descents. Furthermore, unlike the prize that got nuked, here every rider will need to participate, or at least every rider interested in the GC (which means money and WT points, don't forget), and also the terrible descenders will be forced to take significant risks if they want to compete.
So yeah, I didn't like the format of the competition so I don't mind that it got scrapped, but I find all this uproar quite hysterical, or at best, a very clear example of tunnel-vision.

Agree one hundred percent.

By the way, great thread again Eshnar.

 

[rhubroma]

Re: Re:

So yeah, I didn't like the format of the competition so I don't mind that it got scrapped, but I find all this uproar quite hysterical, or at best, a very clear example of tunnel-vision.

To the bold, not at all. Hysterical? You do realize Wouter Weyland died in crash on a descent in the race just 6 years ago. You will also recall the Spanish rider whose career was ended when he went over a cliff in another recent Giro and barely escaped alive. Tunnel-vision? That's an ironic reverse myopia. We all know they will be flying down and taking risks, but that's not the point and of course why I said "one crosses their fingers" not hand out prizes. The point is that Vegni has demonstrated a complete insensitivity to the memory of those unfortunate riders by thinking it a good idea to market the descenders' exploits.

Well I totally agree it was a bad idea, marketing-wise. I simply do not believe it would expose the riders to any risk bigger than what they already face, which is what some riders claim.

Whether or not it would have exposed the riders to more danger is irrelevant. It's the symbolism behind the initiative within the context of recent tragedies.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

Oropa, Valdengo and Piancavallo stages are pathetic.
The Ortisei and Asiago stages could have been much much better as well. And isn't there enough room for a finish at the top of Blockhaus?

What's wrong with the Valdengo stage 15? If there were no MTFs then this one could have potentially had good GC action. Also stages 18 and 20 (Ortisei and Asiago) I wonder what they should have done differently.

Maybe on stage 18, not have that last lap of Ortisei and instead finish at 103km would be better I think. I like the 15 extra km on stage 20 after the Foza climb. The typical MTF watt/kg slugfest that decides grand tours is really bland... wish there were more GC relevant stages that weren't MTFs like stage 20.

Oropa stage is just a ----/ which is pathetic since we already have Blockhaus like that.
The stage from Valdengo to Bergamo is way too easy since they don't climb Valcava and Sant'Antonio Abbandonato and it will probably be a breakaway stage.
Ortisei is almost a MTF with not that big of a climbs before. The stage that Netserk suggested would be perfect.
Also the final to Asiago is great as I am also a fan of 15-20 km of flat(maybe even 30) or descending after the last climb in the last relevant GC stage. However the stage is pretty easy since they climb the easiest side of Grappa and Grappa from that side is the only climb before Foza. So we probably won't see any action on Grappa unless Nibali or Landa go ballistic.They could have climbed Grappa twice from the harder sides (one via Bocca di Forca and one via Semonzetto) before Foza and maybe even adding one more hard climb before Grappa via Bocca di Forca and Grappa via Semonzetto. Then after 3 hard climbs the Foza would only increase the gaps even more.
And Piancavallo is very disappointing as stage 19. We already have Blockhaus and Oropa as -----/. Why the RCS is putting a stage similar to them? (there are some cat 2 climbs but they are far away from the line)

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Oropa, Valdengo and Piancavallo stages are pathetic.
The Ortisei and Asiago stages could have been much much better as well. And isn't there enough room for a finish at the top of Blockhaus?

What's wrong with the Valdengo stage 15? If there were no MTFs then this one could have potentially had good GC action. Also stages 18 and 20 (Ortisei and Asiago) I wonder what they should have done differently.

Maybe on stage 18, not have that last lap of Ortisei and instead finish at 103km would be better I think. I like the 15 extra km on stage 20 after the Foza climb. The typical MTF watt/kg slugfest that decides grand tours is really bland... wish there were more GC relevant stages that weren't MTFs like stage 20.

Oropa stage is just a ----/ which is pathetic since we already have Blockhaus like that.
The stage from Valdengo to Bergamo is way too easy since they don't climb Valcava and Sant'Antonio Abbandonato and it will probably be a breakaway stage.
Ortisei is almost a MTF with not that big of a climbs before. The stage that Netserk suggested would be perfect.
Also the final to Asiago is great as I am also a fan of 15-20 km of flat(maybe even 30) or descending after the last climb in the last relevant GC stage. However the stage is pretty easy since they climb the easiest side of Grappa and Grappa from that side is the only climb before Foza. So we probably won't see any action on Grappa unless Nibali or Landa go ballistic.They could have climbed Grappa twice from the harder sides (one via Bocca di Forca and one via Semonzetto) before Foza and maybe even adding one more hard climb before Grappa via Bocca di Forca and Grappa via Semonzetto. Then after 3 hard climbs the Foza would only increase the gaps even more.
And Piancavallo is very disappointing as stage 19. We already have Blockhaus and Oropa as -----/. Why the RCS is putting a stage similar to them? (there are some cat 2 climbs but they are far away from the line)

Revisiting the route (and under closer inspection due to Eshnar's remarkable analysis) I don't mind stages 19 and 20 so much. Sure, stage 19 will only come down to the final climb, but this is a decent climb; one that encourages attacking from its early slopes (it's flatter gradients at the top mean that we won't have a 1km sprint between a handful of contenders). Stage 20 is not too tough, which is good, otherwise you run the risk of riders waiting for it (like the 2012 Giro).

But it is still hard enough to be potentially game changing.

Stage 18 is the one that I'm questioning more now. High altitude climbs yes, but I hadn't realised that all of these Dolomite climbs are under 7% average gradients. This is disappointing. Could the Giro's 'tribute' to their major mountain range be condemned to being a breakaway stage?

 

[classicomano]

Amazing, thank you so much for taking the time to do this.

 

[Netserk]

I think stage 19 is fine as well, given the context, but because there's already two __/ stages, it could perhaps also work if they finished in Maniago (but if 18 is downhill finish as well, that makes Oropa the last MTF), which would reduce backloading a bit as well. I don't think changing the side from which they'll climb Grappa to Semonzetto will make riders wait for the stage, given it still would be just a two-climbs stage.

With those changes (plus stage 18), the stage 10 ITT should be extended a bit as well, perhaps by going through Cannara in the beginning (adding 6km of flat) or up to Cerreto (adding 13km of flat).

No revolution, and still with space for improvement for the hilly stages, but it should be enough to make the route fantastic, instead of merely good.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re:

I think stage 19 is fine as well, given the context, but because there's already two __/ stages, it could perhaps also work if they finished in Maniago (but if 18 is downhill finish as well, that makes Oropa the last MTF), which would reduce backloading a bit as well. I don't think changing the side from which they'll climb Grappa to Semonzetto will make riders wait for the stage, given it still would be just a two-climbs stage.

With those changes (plus stage 18), the stage 10 ITT should be extended a bit as well, perhaps by going through Cannara in the beginning (adding 6km of flat) or up to Cerreto (adding 13km of flat).

No revolution, and still with space for improvement for the hilly stages, but it should be enough to make the route fantastic, instead of merely good.

If we make the changes I wrote here the TTs should be longer too.
Also as I wrote they should climb Grappa via Bocca di Forca before Grappa via Semnozetto which would make it a stage with 3 climbs. They can also climb Malga Budui before Grappa via Bocca di Forca so it would have 4 Giro style cat 1 climbs.

Malga Budui profile (the one from Follina) :
https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/Budui

 

[May0maniac]

Maybe we'll get those sides o Monte Grappa next year as a final, big WWI tribute.

 

[Robert5091]

Stage 3 could be fun - short, flat and before the rest day - someone could TT this from 50 km out!

 

[Singer01]

Prediction time, which individual stage thread will have the highest number of pages? I'm going out on a limb and going with Stage 4, expecting a number of big favourites not to be ready and to crack hard and early.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Prediction time, which individual stage thread will have the highest number of pages? I'm going out on a limb and going with Stage 4, expecting a number of big favourites not to be ready and to crack hard and early.

16. I expect Gardeccia-esque standards and Nibali going ballistic on Stelvio. I think Blockhaus (9), Ortisei (18) and Asiago (20) will be higher than Etna (its a good shout tho, you might very well be right, but I have a hard time seeing it topping double Stelvio)

Hoping for a much better stage tomorrow, I must admit today was boring. Had expected at least a bit higher pace on the climb.

 

[Valv.Piti]

http://www.velon.cc/en/news/2017/04/giro-d-italia-5-key-stages
Velon masterminds, clueless as always. Oropa, the place to win the Giro.. eh, 10 seconds.

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Prediction time, which individual stage thread will have the highest number of pages? I'm going out on a limb and going with Stage 4, expecting a number of big favourites not to be ready and to crack hard and early.

anything other than stage 16 would be a surprise.

 

[RedheadDane]

Probably a stage we never expected.

 

[yaco]

A strange stage stage with Bora's second lead out rider clipping off with less than 2km - Lotto Soudal and Etix had no lead out riders in the final, while Orica had 2 riders but could do nothing - Stage 2 seems a mini LBL day - It could be a classics or even a Gc rider win the stage.

 

[Robert5091]

Stage 3 a.k.a. race to the ferry - is here! Have a feeling someone will come a cropper today.

 

[alspacka]

Amazing work Eshnar, appreciate it.

 

[TommyGun]

Thanks a lot Eshnar, brilliant as always!

OK, a serious question now: if I take a day off at work next week, which day/stage would you recommend ?
- the ITT on stage 10 ?
- or the medium mountain stage 11 ?

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Thanks a lot Eshnar, brilliant as always!

OK, a serious question now: if I take a day off at work next week, which day/stage would you recommend ?
- the ITT on stage 10 ?
- or the medium mountain stage 11 ?

Well the ITT would be guaranteed to be meaningful, so unless you don't enjoy watching time trials, the choice should be clear

 

[TommyGun]

Re: Re:

Thanks a lot Eshnar, brilliant as always!

OK, a serious question now: if I take a day off at work next week, which day/stage would you recommend ?
- the ITT on stage 10 ?
- or the medium mountain stage 11 ?

Well the ITT would be guaranteed to be meaningful, so unless you don't enjoy watching time trials, the choice should be clear

Thanks, but ITTs are sometimes a bit dull to watch (watching the live time splits on a web page is basically the same, imo). I was thinking of the "Fuente De"-esque potential of stage 11, but it might be too early in the race.
I will wait until the Blockhaus to decide

 

[Robert5091]

Seems stage 9, the Blockhaus stage, on Sunday is when things while happen.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Looking forward to stage 6 and 8 - tricky, hilly finishes are part of the Giro and is always great to watch. Possibility for a few seconds gained and lost for the GC-men as well. Unfortunately we have a very mediocre field contesting these stages, I miss Bettini and Riccó and with no Gilbert, I think Haas is the best puncheur around.