2018 Innsbruck World Championship Men's Road Race - 259km

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

Vincenzo Nibali will win this bike race

Amen

That's not how you say it... try again.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Roglic is an interesting case. He's considered amongst the favorites by many without having any result whatsoever in one day races (his best result outside his national championship is a 21st in San Sebastian). How do we know he has the stamina for such a long race?

I think Alaphilippe is the clear favorite here, but it will be a difficult race to control. Kreuziger is my dark horse. Adam Yates and Uran two strong contenders.

Yeah, I agree about the Roglic part. He's not used to riding for the win in rested 250km races, so winning stages in stage races basically says nothing about his relative stamina level when his opponents are rested. His shape also seemed a little bit off in Tour of Britain although that could be a deliberate part of his form curve. As always, one really doesn't know what to expect of Roglic, so the result can range from anonymous DNF to top 5

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

Roglic is an interesting case. He's considered amongst the favorites by many without having any result whatsoever in one day races (his best result outside his national championship is a 21st in San Sebastian). How do we know he has the stamina for such a long race?

I think Alaphilippe is the clear favorite here, but it will be a difficult race to control. Kreuziger is my dark horse. Adam Yates and Uran two strong contenders.

I voted Roglic in an online poll yesterday. Of all those that can powerclimb the snot out of the opposition, he also packs a mean punch uphill, and he's maybe the best descender of those that are likely to be still in contention after the final climb. I also feel like he has enough volume to be able to do some damage before the final climb, to have just enough left in the tank to finish it off on the final climb.

But yes, we don't know how he'll fair in a one day 260k race. I still think that if the previous climbs are ridden hard, that Roglic 's chances will rise, while Alaphilippe's chances will diminish.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Valverde to beat Pinot, Kreuziger, and Uran in a group of 4 sprint with the 4 finishing in that order.

I will also take a Pinot or Kreuziger solo win.

Now that would be an interesting final group, but also a possible small group for the win. I would not be shocked if it's a group of 3-5 riders.

 

[The Barb]

Re: 2018 Innsbruck World Championship Men's Road Race - 259k

Such a fascinating race. If there's a decent sized lead group at the base of the last climb the obviously Valverde and Alaphilippe will be terribly hard to beat but everyone knows that so I could totally see an attack on the penultimate climb staying away.

The question is who, and that's very difficult to answer ...

My absurdly specific prediction is:

One of the Yates brothers goes on the penultimate climb (I'll say Adam) and takes Poels, Majka and Lopez with him. The group behind all look to Valverde and Alaphilippe to close it down, but they look at each other, allowing the leaders enough of a gap that they stay away on the final climb. None of the lead group can get away from each other on the final climb and they regroup on the descent, with Poels winning the sprint.

 

[Koronin]

Re: 2018 Innsbruck World Championship Men's Road Race - 259k

Such a fascinating race. If there's a decent sized lead group at the base of the last climb the obviously Valverde and Alaphilippe will be terribly hard to beat but everyone knows that so I could totally see an attack on the penultimate climb staying away.

The question is who, and that's very difficult to answer ...

My absurdly specific prediction is:

One of the Yates brothers goes on the penultimate climb (I'll say Adam) and takes Poels, Majka and Lopez with him. The group behind all look to Valverde and Alaphilippe to close it down, but they look at each other, allowing the leaders enough of a gap that they stay away on the final climb. None of the lead group can get away from each other on the final climb and they regroup on the descent, with Poels winning the sprint.

Alaphilippe should still have at least Bardet and Valverde should still have at least Mas. Mas has also flat out stated that his job is to ensure Valverde is with the lead group at the base of that final climb.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

What's the deal with Croatian representative?
Are Kiserlovski and Durasek injured or something?

The number of riders for each team depends upon the country's previous results.

 

[movingtarget]

I have had the feeling all along that Nibali has been playing down his chances. Soon know whether I am wrong. France has an interesting team with many options. Even though the course might suit them I'm not too confident about a Colombian getting a medal. Valverde winning would top off his career but I think he has the job ahead of him. Switzerland rode the perfect team race in the men's U23's and I think this race might require the same as I don't see anyone destroying the field as in other races this week.

 

[The Hegelian]

I think the winner will come from the Veulta.

S. Yates, Kwiatkowski & Mas to fill the podium spots.

Pinot, Valverde, Haig & Quintana to top 10.

Kind of interested in the Colombians - when the parcours were announced, they looked liked the invincibles. But 2017 was better for a lot of them than 2018. Maybe Chaves was their best bet.....

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I think the winner will come from the Veulta.

S. Yates, Kwiatkowski & Mas to fill the podium spots.

Pinot, Valverde, Haig & Quintana to top 10.

Kind of interested in the Colombians - when the parcours were announced, they looked liked the invincibles. But 2017 was better for a lot of them than 2018. Maybe Chaves was their best bet.....

You do know that Mas is riding for Valverde and has stated so several times including today?

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

I think the winner will come from the Veulta.

S. Yates, Kwiatkowski & Mas to fill the podium spots.

Pinot, Valverde, Haig & Quintana to top 10.

Kind of interested in the Colombians - when the parcours were announced, they looked liked the invincibles. But 2017 was better for a lot of them than 2018. Maybe Chaves was their best bet.....

You do know that Mas is riding for Valverde and has stated so several times including today?

No I didn't know that. I stand by it though - it may mean going with an earlier move + I'm sure he'll have great legs.

If I was DS for Spain, I'd be protecting them both.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Roglic is an interesting case. He's considered amongst the favorites by many without having any result whatsoever in one day races (his best result outside his national championship is a 21st in San Sebastian). How do we know he has the stamina for such a long race?

I think Alaphilippe is the clear favorite here, but it will be a difficult race to control. Kreuziger is my dark horse. Adam Yates and Uran two strong contenders.

You make a strong point, but are we sure you need a good one day pedigree to win a mountainous worlds? Let’s look at past tough olympics/worlds in recent years:
Duitama: Olano won a national RR, not much else in one day races
Beijing: Strong performances in many classics
Mendrisio: Evans never had much of a one day pedigree aside from his world title
Florence: Costa strong results in other classics
Rio: We all know GVA’s one day talents
So 3/5 had a good classics resume. Including Rio in that list is somewhat generous imo, I don’t think it was as hard as the others. I think history suggests a rider without a strong one day palmares can win this race

Evans had good results before his win.

Evans career in classics or semi classics suggests he would have been more successful if he had ridden them more often :

Liege : 4th and 7th
Fleche : 1st, 2nd and 5th
Strade Bianchi : 7th
Lombardy : 6th

Also the epic Giro stage he won in 2010 : Montalcino stage outsprinting Cunego and Vino. Even Sean Kelly was surprised at how he won that, in difficult conditions. So Evans always had some one day ability.

 

[Ivan_Basso_77]

I don't care how it happens, but I want an Italian to win. Forza Vincenzo!

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think the winner will come from the Veulta.

S. Yates, Kwiatkowski & Mas to fill the podium spots.

Pinot, Valverde, Haig & Quintana to top 10.

Kind of interested in the Colombians - when the parcours were announced, they looked liked the invincibles. But 2017 was better for a lot of them than 2018. Maybe Chaves was their best bet.....

You do know that Mas is riding for Valverde and has stated so several times including today?

If Valverde realizes relatively early on that he doesn't have the legs though, then he'll surely let Mas ride for himself. Maybe even work for him, like he did with Purito in the Olympics.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: 2018 Innsbruck World Championship Men's Road Race - 259k

All that matters is that they wont wait for thhe final climb. If today is a proper race then I dont mind who wins it.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Re: 2018 Innsbruck World Championship Men's Road Race - 259k

I think Valverde and Alaphilippe will only come into contention if it comes to that final climb. But, I don't think it will come down to that. I think this race is gonna blow up along way from the finish and a few high class riders getting away earlier on and staying away with the favourites unable to drag them back.


I really hope its an open race and not a borefest waiting for the last climb for an uphill sprint. Poels or Pinot FTW and i'll be rooting for Chaichi from Iran to russle up a nice cuppa and top ten.

 

[DFA123]

Re: 2018 Innsbruck World Championship Men's Road Race - 259k

I think Valverde and Alaphilippe will only come into contention if it comes to that final climb. But, I don't think it will come down to that. I think this race is gonna blow up along way from the finish and a few high class riders getting away earlier on and staying away with the favourites unable to drag them back.


I really hope its an open race and not a borefest waiting for the last climb for an uphill sprint. Poels or Pinot FTW and i'll be rooting for Chaichi from Iran to russle up a nice cuppa and top ten.

I think Majka could be a good bet in that kind of scenario. Would surely depend on France getting someone in the break though. If they and Spain are both back in the peloton there would be a lot of firepower to chase down any attacks.

 

[markene2]

Going to tip a outsider today. Fuglsang, Zakarin or Spilak

 

[Pantani_lives]

To me there are three top favorites: Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski and Yates. Then there are twenty others who can also win if everything goes perfect: Roglic, Bardet... I have my doubts about Valverde, because this won't be decided by an uphill sprint.

 

[klintE]

I would like to see some not obvious winner like balaphilippe in this bike race.
I would prefer top 5 like:
Mollema, Mohoric, de Plus, Majka, Henao

 

[Andy262]

Really hoping Valgren might shine today.

Little fun bets on him Bardet, Martin, Oomen and Poels.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

To me there are three top favorites: Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski and Yates. Then there are twenty others who can also win if everything goes perfect: Roglic, Bardet... I have my doubts about Valverde, because this won't be decided by an uphill sprint.

Doesn't that technically make it four?

 

[hmpower]

Go George Bennett!

 

[RedheadDane]

One question; what's up with Swedish cycling these days? Only one rider!?
No offence to Eritrea, but could any of you imagine Eritrea having more riders than Sweden just ten years ago?
Actually, I quite like the raise in cycling in "smaller" cycling nations, but the Swedes need to up their game.

 

[Rollthedice]

Six riders up the road with more attacks, small gaps over 15Km from the start.