2018 Paris - Roubaix

[tomorrow]

Re:

Hard to look past a former 6th place finisher like Sagan.

Well, in this case, the actual results are a little bit misleading. Of course he's not top favourite, but he was 6th in 2013, 2014 and 2015 he was broken from trying to be better climber, 2016 he was caught behind a crash, then jumped over cancellara and chased alone, yet when he gave up, he was only one minute down. Finally last year, he had punctures twice while in attack, the second time he closed like 20s gap to boonen group all by himself. That was quite an effort. Unfortunately, that cooked him. When he got that second flat, he was in front of gva, already bridged to moscon.

 

[tobydawq]

He didn't ride in 2013, was sixth in 2014 and couldn't ride in the big ring in the finale in 2015.

He has had so much bad luck in this race, so we really can't assess whether or not he is a top favourite.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

1. Kristoff
2. Sep VM
3. Rowe

Starting to dislike QS during the classics, bit like SKY in the GT's. Sagan, well........... he just needs all the other teams to annul all the attacks then drag him to the line so he can win the sprint. Or jump on the wheel of the first QS rider to attack and hope they stay away.

I understand that feeling, there is a difference though.
Qs is an aggresive team and sky isn't.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Final 25k of 2002

Wonder if young Mads Pedersen can deliver a show like young Tommeke did.

 

[SKSemtex]

Sagan is much better in asphalt then in cobbles. He is no Boonen. He uses raw power to ride them and he spends to much energy on them and that resulting in flats or missing energy in finale.

Belgium cobbles are quite ok but PR cobbles is another cup at coffee.

He has to be one level stronger then his rivals to win, or have tons of luck or mega conservative race.

He is not strong enough to win the race alone but still strong enough to decide who will lose and I have a feeling that this year he will bury the chances of Gilbert.

My heart: Sagan, SVM
My head: Stybar, Terpstra,

 

[Kwibus]

Sagan is much better in asphalt then in cobbles. He is no Boonen. He uses raw power to ride them and he spends to much energy on them and that resulting in flats or missing energy in finale.

Belgium cobbles are quite ok but PR cobbles is another cup at coffee.

He has to be one level stronger then his rivals to win, or have tons of luck or mega conservative race.

He is not strong enough to win the race alone but still strong enough to decide who will lose and I have a feeling that this year he will bury the chances of Gilbert.

My heart: Sagan, SVM
My head: Stybar, Terpstra,

I think Sagan last year was really good, but had terrible luck on crucial moments.

 

[therhodeo]

Re:

He didn't ride in 2013, was sixth in 2014 and couldn't ride in the big ring in the finale in 2015.

He has had so much bad luck in this race, so we really can't assess whether or not he is a top favourite.

16' and 17'??

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

He didn't ride in 2013, was sixth in 2014 and couldn't ride in the big ring in the finale in 2015.

He has had so much bad luck in this race, so we really can't assess whether or not he is a top favourite.

16' and 17'??

He wasn't exactly lucky in those two years either. If anything in 2017 he looked like one of the two or three strongest riders

 

[therhodeo]

How many years before its not that he's unlucky and he's just not a rider for Roubaix?

 

[Laplaz]

Weather prediction shows 35-40% rain possibility, not too bad, altough it's only Google Weather

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

He didn't ride in 2013, was sixth in 2014 and couldn't ride in the big ring in the finale in 2015.

He has had so much bad luck in this race, so we really can't assess whether or not he is a top favourite.

16' and 17'??

He wasn't exactly lucky in those two years either. If anything in 2017 he looked like one of the two or three strongest riders

He looked pretty much the strongest in the race.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

He didn't ride in 2013, was sixth in 2014 and couldn't ride in the big ring in the finale in 2015.

He has had so much bad luck in this race, so we really can't assess whether or not he is a top favourite.

16' and 17'??

It was a comment to tomorrow's posts - he said what happened in 2016 and 2017. Caught out, insane acrobatics and two punctures while on the attack.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

How many years before its not that he's unlucky and he's just not a rider for Roubaix?

That's easy to say for you if you just look at results.

A thorough analysis will tell you otherwise, though.

But I don't think he has it this year, unfortunately.

 

[Jancouver]

Sagan needs to win solo. He will not win a velodrome sprint from a small group as he got no experience riding track. Or does he?

It is possible that all the favorites will be looking at each other and the break of the day will take it. If that is the scenario, Turbo-Durbo and Nils Politt are my picks.

... heck, Durbridge can probably out-fox Sagan and the rest of the (small) group when it comes to track ...

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Sagan needs to win solo. He will not win a velodrome sprint from a small group as he got no experience riding track. Or does he?

It is possible that all the favorites will be looking at each other and the break of the day will take it. If that is the scenario, Turbo-Durbo and Nils Politt are my picks.

... heck, Durbridge can probably out-fox Sagan and the rest of the (small) group when it comes to track ...

Do not spoil my party. In my dreams I see Sagan winning on the velodrome, after standing on his bike without any move for 30 s in the top track untill GVA lose his nerves and start sprinting.

Unfortunately both of them are not strong enough to come alone to velodrome alone like Cance and Sep few years ago.
For me that was even better edition of PR than 2016. Deciding PR just by tracking skill is so beautiful.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Sagan needs to win solo. He will not win a velodrome sprint from a small group as he got no experience riding track. Or does he?

It is possible that all the favorites will be looking at each other and the break of the day will take it. If that is the scenario, Turbo-Durbo and Nils Politt are my picks.

... heck, Durbridge can probably out-fox Sagan and the rest of the (small) group when it comes to track ...

A winner from the break? Heck if that's the case and Movistar can managed to get one of their riders in the break even they could win the thing. I would NOT expect that at all.

I certainly wouldn't mind a small group and real track tactics to win.

 

[GraftPunk]

Sadly I think it's going to be a solo win, though some proper velodrome dirty tricks would be amazing!

 

[tomorrow]

Re:

Sadly I think it's going to be a solo win, though some proper velodrome dirty tricks would be amazing!

only one of the quicksteppers can win solo because of the lack of cooperation.

 

[shalgo]

Re: Re:

Sadly I think it's going to be a solo win, though some proper velodrome dirty tricks would be amazing!

only one of the quicksteppers can win solo because of the lack of cooperation.

I think Terpstra will win that way once again. A small group together near the end, Gilbert attacks, gets caught, and then nobody responds when Terpstra attacks.

 

[Velolover2]

The scenario will be the same as in E3 and Ronde. They will never learn.

Sagan and GVA will be looking too much at Gilbert. A perfect opportunity for Terpstra to go clear along a couple of lesser, semi-unknown names. These riders will eventually get dropped by Terpstra on the cobbles.

At least Vanmacke and Naesen better react to Terpstra. He is more dangerous than Gilbert.

BMC should also use their numbers better. It's the second strongest team. Küng and Roelandts are always there. And instead of using Oss as a workhorse, Sagan could use him as a anchor. He is strong enough to sit on Terpstra's wheel.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

The scenario will be the same as in E3 and Ronde. They will never learn.

Sagan and GVA will be looking too much at Gilbert. A perfect opportunity for Terpstra to go clear along a couple of lesser, semi-unknown names. These riders will eventually get dropped by Terpstra on the cobbles.

At least Vanmacke and Naesen better react to Terpstra. He is more dangerous than Gilbert.

BMC should also use their numbers better. It's the second strongest team. Küng and Roelandts are always there. And instead of using Oss as a workhorse, Sagan could use him as a anchor. He is strong enough to sit on Terpstra's wheel.

This pretty much

 

[therhodeo]

I think Gilbert wins this time because everyone thinks he's not on great form and they all know what Terpstra is capable of right now. Judging from his pulls and covers in G-W though underestimating his form would be a mistake.

 

[Netserk]

QS won't win. IF they do, it'll be Stybar. I think Greg will repeat.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

We might need to change the poll to "Which Quick Step rider will win?"

 

[therhodeo]

Re:

QS won't win. IF they do, it'll be Stybar. I think Greg will repeat.

Stybar is definitely due for one at Roubaix. Always the bridesmaid...