2019 Giro d'Italia, Stage-by-Stage Analysis

[Red Rick]

Active recovery after Romandie.

Don't think there's a chance in hell Roglic rides Romandie if teh Giro isn't a glorified one week race.

Oops, I guess I went there.

if he needs recovery after a 5 day race he dominated without opposition, he's not gonna last two days in the Giro...

Depends. Think fatigue isn't just one dimensional.

That being said, I don't really know what the last 2 weeks before a GT look like for a GT rider, so who knows. Maybe he didn't get specific enough training impulses?

 

[sir fly]

Active recovery after Romandie.

Don't think there's a chance in hell Roglic rides Romandie if teh Giro isn't a glorified one week race.

Oops, I guess I went there.

if he needs recovery after a 5 day race he dominated without opposition, he's not gonna last two days in the Giro...

Depends. Think fatigue isn't just one dimensional.

That being said, I don't really know what the last 2 weeks before a GT look like for a GT rider, so who knows. Maybe he didn't get specific enough training impulses?

If I'm right, Roglič came to the Romandie straight off the altitude, so the race was a kind of transition from training to racing.
Everybody's physiology requires some period of adaptation after the altitude training (there's even an article here mentioning it). A week before the Giro, and a week more before the Giro gets really serious, and that might just be Roglič's periodization combined with appropriate efforts during the time.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Interesting that Trek are bringing Moschetti, they probably want him to gain some experience durning the first 11 stages.
Calling the Giro a gloryfied one week stage race is a bit overdramatic, stage 9 to 21 is fine, so it's at least 2 weeks.
The first 3 days are also fine. That said, the route clearly has flaws, a MTF or a proper Tirreno-Adriatico stage in the middle of the first week would really make a difference.
Last year we had too many uphill finishes in the first week, this time it's the polar opposit.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Pernsteiner was solid in Catalunya and Trentino, good enough to be the 3rd best climbing domestique.

I disagree, but I guess it depends on expectations. The field was weak and I expected him to be with his captain in the last couple of stages, when he was dropped pretty early.

Overall I think Nibali's supporting cast lacks depth. There are two top end climbing domestiques but the rest of the roster is very meh. I understand the best riders will go to the Tour, but one between Tratnik, Dennis, Cortina, Teuns and Mohoric had to be here. No wonder Nibali is looking for another team.

I have to agree with you, one of those guys would have really improved the team.
A healthy Padun would be another rider that you'd want to have on the Giro team.
I still think that Pernsteiner would be better than Garosio, at least if he's healthy.

I think Pernsteiner is the better rider, and clearly the better climber.
But I understand why Garosio is there. And I don't think it would make much difference anyway.

 

[Valv.Piti]

For an "Italian" team, UAE is bringing quite a bad team apart from Gaviria. Well, maybe him and Ulissi can win a couple of stages early on and then its all good, but they will be invisible come the mountains.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

For an "Italian" team, UAE is bringing quite a bad team apart from Gaviria. Well, maybe him and Ulissi can win a couple of stages early on and then its all good, but they will be invisible come the mountains.

Maybe Ulissi, Polanc and Conti can vie for breakaway victories in the mountains.

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

For an "Italian" team, UAE is bringing quite a bad team apart from Gaviria. Well, maybe him and Ulissi can win a couple of stages early on and then its all good, but they will be invisible come the mountains.

If Ulissi has 2016 shape only three stages are too hard for him in this route. But also the 2014 version could be enough to be in the mix in stages like Pinerolo, Como, San Martino, Anterselva.

Anyway I wonder if Gaviria will ride all the Giro, I remember this winter during a training camp they said the idea was two weeks and then go home but in the recent posted news he talked about the point jersey.

 

[Poursuivant]

Brilliant

 

[Rollthedice]

Gavia in danger, snow and all? Martinelli (Astana DS of Pantani and Nibali fame) said that if Gavia will not be used it will be 2 X Mortirolo. Is this the backup plan or it's Martinelli's imagination?

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re:

Gavia in danger, snow and all? Martinelli (Astana DS of Pantani and Nibali fame) said that if Gavia will not be used it will be 2 X Mortirolo. Is this the backup plan or it's Martinelli's imagination?

Vegni probably told the teams that he has a legit backup plan, so I guess it's true. Why would Martinelli mention a double Mortirolo otherwise?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Gavia in danger, snow and all? Martinelli (Astana DS of Pantani and Nibali fame) said that if Gavia will not be used it will be 2 X Mortirolo. Is this the backup plan or it's Martinelli's imagination?

2x Mortirolo is impossible cause it would be like 270km, so imagine it's either Aprica/Trivigno/Mortirolo like in 2010 or they go Mortirolo from Edolo, have some local loop to not back down on itself and then climb the side they just descended.

Neither option is great. If double Mortirolo from Mazzo was possible I'd be breaking in somewhere to steal snow cannons now.

 

[Laplaz]

What about this one?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

What about this one?

Not too bad.

Yeah I was thinking double Mortirolo ment Aprica/Mortirolo/Aprica/Mortirolo/Ponte di Legno, so that makes a mess of things.

Doubt they'd do this specific one but there's no doubt there's many options with the parallel passes of the Mortirolo.

 

[Eshnar]

yeah, it's entirely possible that they do Mortirolo from Edolo + some other stuff + Mortirolo from Mazzo.

It's nice to know that there is already a plan B, but I'm still pretty confident the Gavia will be in. Forecasts are quite bad for this week, but then the weather should become good, and if so there is plenty of time to clear the road.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

What about this one?

Not too bad.

Yeah I was thinking double Mortirolo ment Aprica/Mortirolo/Aprica/Mortirolo/Ponte di Legno, so that makes a mess of things.

Doubt they'd do this specific one but there's no doubt there's many options with the parallel passes of the Mortirolo.

Well theres no doubt that actual stage is better than Gavia-Mortirolo to me. Absolutely none. The climbs get cramped much closer to each other so while neither Mortirolo from Edolo or Trivigno is harder than Gavia, the two of them are definitely harder. Just feels like a better design overall to get rid of all the false flat and valley stuff when using Gavia before Mortirolo

 

[Red Rick]

Gavia/Mortirolo is just way more organic in my opinion. Usuing 2 massive climbs rather than backing down on itself even more, etc.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Gavia has all the myth and legends going for it, and altitude obviously, and yes, it is a monstrous climb from Ponte di Legno (really its from Edolo, its similar to Agnello in this sense), but I cant see how its more 'organic'. Anyways, the result will be more or less the same in the foot of Mortirolo I feel, so as long as you keep the nature of the length and the overall brutality of the queen stage, I have no complaints.

 

[Laplaz]

My version with 2x Mortirolo + Trivigno has about 5400m of climbing while the original one with Gavia + Mortirolo has about 5800m (altough more of those are false flat). Really hart to tell which one is harder, although I would prefer the original one.

 

[durtyfat7]

I just saw on the startlist that Landa will be wearing the bib #1. But considering Froome won last year, it shouldn't be a rider from Ineos who wear it in this race?

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

I just saw on the startlist that Landa will be wearing the bib #1. But considering Froome won last year, it shouldn't be a rider from Ineos who wear it in this race?

I think the plan was to give #1 to Valverde as World Champion. For some reason, they didn't want/couldn't change it once Valverde dropped.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re: Re:

Gavia in danger, snow and all? Martinelli (Astana DS of Pantani and Nibali fame) said that if Gavia will not be used it will be 2 X Mortirolo. Is this the backup plan or it's Martinelli's imagination?

2x Mortirolo is impossible cause it would be like 270km, so imagine it's either Aprica/Trivigno/Mortirolo like in 2010 or they go Mortirolo from Edolo, have some local loop to not back down on itself and then climb the side they just descended.

Neither option is great. If double Mortirolo from Mazzo was possible I'd be breaking in somewhere to steal snow cannons now.

Wouldn't it be just 11km longer than the original stage:
https://www.openrunner.com/r/9926640

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Gavia in danger, snow and all? Martinelli (Astana DS of Pantani and Nibali fame) said that if Gavia will not be used it will be 2 X Mortirolo. Is this the backup plan or it's Martinelli's imagination?

2x Mortirolo is impossible cause it would be like 270km, so imagine it's either Aprica/Trivigno/Mortirolo like in 2010 or they go Mortirolo from Edolo, have some local loop to not back down on itself and then climb the side they just descended.

Neither option is great. If double Mortirolo from Mazzo was possible I'd be breaking in somewhere to steal snow cannons now.

Wouldn't it be just 11km longer than the original stage:
https://www.openrunner.com/r/9926640

Now I'm confused.

That would be great.

 

[Valv.Piti]

That would be insane... in a good way ofc

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Gavia in danger, snow and all? Martinelli (Astana DS of Pantani and Nibali fame) said that if Gavia will not be used it will be 2 X Mortirolo. Is this the backup plan or it's Martinelli's imagination?

2x Mortirolo is impossible cause it would be like 270km, so imagine it's either Aprica/Trivigno/Mortirolo like in 2010 or they go Mortirolo from Edolo, have some local loop to not back down on itself and then climb the side they just descended.

Neither option is great. If double Mortirolo from Mazzo was possible I'd be breaking in somewhere to steal snow cannons now.

Wouldn't it be just 11km longer than the original stage:
https://www.openrunner.com/r/9926640

Is the profile in there? because I couldn't open it.
Maybe you can post it. Thanks.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re: Re:

Gavia in danger, snow and all? Martinelli (Astana DS of Pantani and Nibali fame) said that if Gavia will not be used it will be 2 X Mortirolo. Is this the backup plan or it's Martinelli's imagination?

2x Mortirolo is impossible cause it would be like 270km, so imagine it's either Aprica/Trivigno/Mortirolo like in 2010 or they go Mortirolo from Edolo, have some local loop to not back down on itself and then climb the side they just descended.

Neither option is great. If double Mortirolo from Mazzo was possible I'd be breaking in somewhere to steal snow cannons now.

Wouldn't it be just 11km longer than the original stage:
https://www.openrunner.com/r/9926640

Is the profile in there? because I couldn't open it.
Maybe you can post it. Thanks.

I'll post the full profile later.