2019 Tour de Suisse

[Velolover2]

Tomorrow, we will see the first battle of the white (or even yellow) Tour jersey between Bernal and Mas.

This is a classic Contador climb. Who will be the next El Pistolero? I can't tell who is the most Contador-esque of those two.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

I see that Nufenenpass is still closed as well so options seem to be really limited

Nufenenpass will be opened tomorrow. Man, that was a long winter this year. It's almost July.

Somehow I missed that

Party like it's 2005 then

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/jun05/suisse05/?id=stages/suisse059

It's even harder now.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Hopefully Don Lefevre and Holm for once skip the sprint train, as they do not have much to say in that side of the office this year.

All for Mas and Alaphilippe, built for ttt and balanced gc support. Route is build for Bardet and Pinot, if DQS slash them in ttt like they any day can, they could end up high. Alaphilippe and Mas are better tt'ers than Pinot and Bardet.

So you're saying Alaphilippe is going to challenge Bardet and Pinot? :surprised:

Sprint train is certain thing, Lefevre wants wins, and he's most likely to get them with Viviani. So, Morkov, Richeze and Viviani are in.

 

[Velolover2]

Alaphilippe is the most free rider in the peloton who isn't a GC guy or bunch sprinter. He is not even that useful as dom in the high mountains.

He is there for stage hunting and difficult finishes.

 

[Robert5091]

QS lead out men doing their job pretty much spot on for Viviani - Sagan second best again. Nice work out for Mohoric!

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Could people please stop saying that rider x or y is safe regarding Deceuninck's Tour squad? You can't possibly know that. I think the only two who are truly safe are Enric Mas and Julian Alaphilippe. Probably also Viviani now that he won a couple of stages in Switzerland.

And even they could fall tomorrow and break their legs. I mean… we all thought Froome was pretty safe.

 

[Robert5091]

Official announcement about stage 9 changes -
https://www.facebook.com/tourdesuisse/videos/2162756877104956/
and
https://www.tourdesuisse.ch/en/news/news-detail/news/new-course-for-the-queen-stage-1/

By changing the course, the Tour de Suisse offers the riders and the spectators an unexpected highlight: the Nufenen pass, at 2,478 meters above sea level, is the highest mountain pass with a paved road on Swiss soil. The road was opened on 5 September 1969 after five years of construction. The first rider to cross the summit will celebrate the 50th anniversary with due respect.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Could people please stop saying that rider x or y is safe regarding Deceuninck's Tour squad? You can't possibly know that. I think the only two who are truly safe are Enric Mas and Julian Alaphilippe. Probably also Viviani now that he won a couple of stages in Switzerland.

And even they could fall tomorrow and break their legs. I mean… we all thought Froome was pretty safe.

Well, not really my point, but true nonetheless.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Could people please stop saying that rider x or y is safe regarding Deceuninck's Tour squad? You can't possibly know that. I think the only two who are truly safe are Enric Mas and Julian Alaphilippe. Probably also Viviani now that he won a couple of stages in Switzerland.

And even they could fall tomorrow and break their legs. I mean… we all thought Froome was pretty safe.

Well, not really my point, but true nonetheless.

My point was that nobody is safe. Of course, some are more safe than others and some are definitely not going.

Anyway, quite a shame that Viviani was wearing the point jersey today, otherwise we'd have had the full flag-train.
But this imagine what the team meeting must have been like:
"Okay, Enric, Dries, normal-jersey-guys, you just; stay safe, don't lose time, do your thing. Special jerseys take the sprint."

 

[Escarabajo]

I see that Nufenenpass is still closed as well so options seem to be really limited

Nufenenpass will be opened tomorrow. Man, that was a long winter this year. It's almost July.

Somehow I missed that

Party like it's 2005 then

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/jun05/suisse05/?id=stages/suisse059

It's even harder now.

That's harder than the original. Somehow La Flamme Rouge has a different profile for the Gothardpass. Softer than what is whowing here. But this one looks better than the original. I mean better for us, worse for the cyclists.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Could people please stop saying that rider x or y is safe regarding Deceuninck's Tour squad? You can't possibly know that. I think the only two who are truly safe are Enric Mas and Julian Alaphilippe. Probably also Viviani now that he won a couple of stages in Switzerland.

And even they could fall tomorrow and break their legs. I mean… we all thought Froome was pretty safe.

Well, not really my point, but true nonetheless.

My point was that nobody is safe. Of course, some are more safe than others and some are definitely not going.

Logically, if is true that 'nobody is safe' then it is also true that 'everyone is potentially going' and that therefore 'nobody is definitely not going'

 

[roundabout]

I see that Nufenenpass is still closed as well so options seem to be really limited

Nufenenpass will be opened tomorrow. Man, that was a long winter this year. It's almost July.

Somehow I missed that

Party like it's 2005 then

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/jun05/suisse05/?id=stages/suisse059

It's even harder now.

That's harder than the original. Somehow La Flamme Rouge has a different profile for the Gothardpass. Softer than what is whowing here. But this one looks better than the original. I mean better for us, worse for the cyclists.

How can it be harder than the original, when the original stage was longer and had more climbing?

Original 3900 meters and 140km

New 3000 meters and 100km

 

[Escarabajo]

I didn't see the length. Just the gradients. I guess they had a trade off. The gradients were softer but longer yes.
I guess the alternate is OK. It wasn't like they did in the Giro IMHO.

 

[Poursuivant]

Bernal or break?

 

[roundabout]

It's a much different situation to the Giro with an alternative easily available

https://www.fam-oud.nl/~oof/Cyclo2005/Zentralschweiz_map.jpg

Red - original circuit

Green - new one

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Bernal or break?

The Flumserberg stage or the final one?

The break has no chance tomorrow but the high mountain stage could become very chaotic.

The Flumserberg stage is tailor-made for the Ineos roleurs. There are real no climbs before the MTF.

Rowe, Doull and Swift will eat the break on the flats. Then it's up to Castroviejo and Elissonde on the climb, but it should be more than enough.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

Bernal or break?

The Flumserberg stage or the final one?

The break has no chance tomorrow but the high mountain stage could become very chaotic.

The Flumserberg stage is tailor-made for the Ineos roleurs. There are real no climbs before the MTF.

Rowe, Doull and Swift will eat the break on the flats. Then it's up to Castroviejo and Elissonde on the climb, but it should be more than enough.

I wouldn't say no chance for the break. If Ineos want to bring it back then, yes, they have a good team to do so. I think the better approach would be for them to let a harmless break go and save their energies for the more demanding stage tomorrow.

Bernal is obviously the one to beat but offers no value at odds on. I see the fact that Rui Costa dropped another couple of minutes yesterday as a pretty good sign he has designs on getting in the break today. If he has held his Romandie form then he will be hard to peg back with any sort of lead at the bottom of the final climb.

EDIT:
I read now that Costa has been suffering from a virus, so maybe that lost time wasn't strategic.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

Yesterday Quick Step train literally gapped everyone else but Sagan that IMHO didn't look good after the turn, despite the finish was uphill and on the cobbles he didn't even try to come out of Vviviani wheel.

Anyway i find funny how the swiss interviewer asks question in italian to everyone except Viviani :lol:

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Yesterday Quick Step train literally gapped everyone else but Sagan that IMHO didn't look good after the turn, despite the finish was uphill and on the cobbles he didn't even try to come out of Vviviani wheel.

Anyway i find funny how the swiss interviewer asks question in italian to everyone except Viviani :lol:

:lol: :lol: So ask questions in Italian to everyone except that Italian. :lol:

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

It's a much different situation to the Giro with an alternative easily available

https://www.fam-oud.nl/~oof/Cyclo2005/Zentralschweiz_map.jpg

Red - original circuit

Green - new one

Nufenen is a beast, I know first hand. Of course, it has no real consequence here because it comes right after the start. However, Furka from the east is much more interesting than Grimsel. So overall, an improvement. Wind in the afternoon is often blowing strongly from the east in the Goms valley, so should be tailwind towards the finish.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Could people please stop saying that rider x or y is safe regarding Deceuninck's Tour squad? You can't possibly know that. I think the only two who are truly safe are Enric Mas and Julian Alaphilippe. Probably also Viviani now that he won a couple of stages in Switzerland.

And even they could fall tomorrow and break their legs. I mean… we all thought Froome was pretty safe.

Well, not really my point, but true nonetheless.

My point was that nobody is safe. Of course, some are more safe than others and some are definitely not going.

Logically, if is true that 'nobody is safe' then it is also true that 'everyone is potentially going' and that therefore 'nobody is definitely not going'

I suppose essentially some guys have to earn their way in, while others have to "earn" - for lack of better words - their way out.

Bernal or break?

Bernal from break.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Really haven't been that convinced by Sagan. These stages have been tailor made for him, but it just seems that Viviani is stronger, even on on uphill finishes. Thought he look better than Sagan as well on the stage that Sagan won. He isn't at 100% just yet, thats for sure.

 

[railxmig]

Re:

Ok, i was already excited to see some proper laps of this Andermatt system of cols. If Nufenen+Gottard+Furka is real then i'm more than excited as i felt Grimsel north was a bit too long and draggy for my taste. I'm more of a gradient guy myself.

How can it be harder than the original, when the original stage was longer and had more climbing?

Original 3900 meters and 140km

New 3000 meters and 100km

I would argue it's about the quality of the climbs (combination of length and gradient) rather than just accumulated cimbing meters. Like eg. Cervinia climb has more distance and climbing but it's mostly 7% with a lot of false-flats. In the same valley you can find Colle San Carlo (the one where Carapaz won the KOM, stage and later Giro) which has less distance and climbing yet it's entirely at 9-10%. You can assume San Carlo will have a larger impact on the race than Cervinia.

In the Suisse case i think it's not as extreme. New climbs don't have the distance but overally higher gradient. Also placing the hardest climb at the beginning (Nufenen is a very good climb) should bring a lot of damage to the doms and there's not much flat in between to catch up while the last design had long, not too steep and not that difficult descends from Furka and Susten to catch up. The only place of respite are roughly 8km between Gottard and Furka. Also you cannot forget that half of Gottardpass is cobbled. I'm not sure how (relatively) big of an impact it may have. I guess it will still end up in Sky/Ineos Thomas the Tank Engine training.

Below are the profiles of Nufenen, Gottard and Furka for reference:

Interestingly, Bernal seems to be the only GC guy to be finishing relatively high in flat stages besides the Murten one. I know that the guy seems to have a near-Valverdesque sprinting capability but this may be some early form showing. We'll see today i guess.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Really haven't been that convinced by Sagan. These stages have been tailor made for him, but it just seems that Viviani is stronger, even on on uphill finishes. Thought he look better than Sagan as well on the stage that Sagan won. He isn't at 100% just yet, thats for sure.

I disagree entirely.

These finishes haven't suited Sagan all that well. Everybody seems to think that as long as the last 200 metres is sligthly hilly, he has a great advantage.

That is not true. He is one of the heavier riders who sprint and when the climbing part only has sprinting distance, the riders who sprint better than him on the flat have more of an advantage than him if they are lighter (which I assume Viviani is) because they still just have to produce their maximal output like they usually do in a flat sprint. This is also why nobody is ever going to bet Caleb Ewan on the Hatta Dam.

Sagan needs a hill of more than a couple hundred metres (preferably about a kilometre of around 7%) to use to his advantage that he is much more durable than the other sprinters who can't sustain the output they need to keep themselves in contention before the sprint.

Also, yesterday he had less than a hundred metres after the last curve to pass Viviani who could sustain his maximum sprint output on the final straight because he was in the wheels of his train on the flat run-in. Ce n'est pas possible.

And how Viviani looked better than Sagan on stage 3 I don't know...

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

Could people please stop saying that rider x or y is safe regarding Deceuninck's Tour squad? You can't possibly know that. I think the only two who are truly safe are Enric Mas and Julian Alaphilippe. Probably also Viviani now that he won a couple of stages in Switzerland.

And even they could fall tomorrow and break their legs. I mean… we all thought Froome was pretty safe.

Well, not really my point, but true nonetheless.

My point was that nobody is safe. Of course, some are more safe than others and some are definitely not going.

Logically, if is true that 'nobody is safe' then it is also true that 'everyone is potentially going' and that therefore 'nobody is definitely not going'

I think the DQ leadership is keenly aware, that they can take a stage win, and the yellow jersey, on either of the first 2 stages, in their home country, and then hold onto it for a good while.

Stage 1: Put Viviani in yellow with the perfect lead out.
Stage 2: Smash the TTT and take yellow (or keep it on Viviani)
Then easily hold on to it until stage 6, where Mas or Alaphilippe can hit the early break to try and keep it until the individual TT.

If DQ get the first 2 stages right, especially stage 2, they can conceivably hold on to the yellow jersey for 12 stages.

Key will be to beat Ineos, Sunweb, etc. on the TTT, and I think that will dictate a large part of the team selection.