- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,969
- 44,346
- 28,180
Oh i thought this thread was:'Would evenepoel have won if he would have been there?' I had that impression after reading all the comments here.
- Aug 22, 2016
- 1,181
- 99
- 10,580
Simply no.clinic talk
My very very obvious guess from yesterday.
Boring orderliness.
We knew it before.
I feel a bit sorry for Campanaerts. Seems a really good guy and very dedicated to the time trial discipline but has the misfortune of sharing nationality with Evenepoel and Van Aert so looks he will only get selected when the others elect not to compete or are injured.
He is very good but his domestic rivals are generational talents.
He is very good but his domestic rivals are generational talents.
- Jun 19, 2009
- 4,071
- 1,400
- 18,680
I thought his was one of the most disappointing performances of the day. Surely his whole year was based around today so a no-excuses 8th place was meh, especially after a promising effort in Tir-Ad
- Jun 6, 2017
- 6,170
- 3,703
- 23,180
So Valverde is pretty safe until the very end, but if starts to rain in the finishing laps he will quit due to his fear of wet descents, I guess
- Oct 14, 2017
- 12,196
- 3,232
- 23,180
So Valverde is pretty safe until the very end, but if starts to rain in the finishing laps he will quit due to his fear of wet descents, I guess
He should be alright at that point.
- May 17, 2013
- 7,559
- 2,414
- 20,680
The ITT was all fine and dandy, but without Pog it lacked a little pizzaz...just sayin'.
Men's RR is my big thing, no disrespect for the women, champions ready to mix it up. But in light of what we saw a the TdF and TA, it's hard to gauge where the TA top-riders stand vs. the Tour guys. That's intriguing and there's a new vs. old component to it. WVA is a serious customer, Pog will be a marked man, in the middle Alaf' is not '19 Alaf', and you have the Sagan/GVA usual suspects one-day racers who can win it. Valverde has shown signs of aging, if the other guys don't take him as seriously as they should and he goes do or die, who knows? Nibali hasn't shown a thing so far but in Italy, he will want to shine, he can win one-day races.
This course isn't hard enough to have one rider dominate, tactics will matter, the winner will have to be good enough on short climbs, good sprinter, or a fox in the final. Experience will play a role, but again a youngster can throw this out and derail others' plans. Intriguing.
With less than 3K to go, one will attack, who will respond, we'll see. My pick: Vincenzo.
Men's RR is my big thing, no disrespect for the women, champions ready to mix it up. But in light of what we saw a the TdF and TA, it's hard to gauge where the TA top-riders stand vs. the Tour guys. That's intriguing and there's a new vs. old component to it. WVA is a serious customer, Pog will be a marked man, in the middle Alaf' is not '19 Alaf', and you have the Sagan/GVA usual suspects one-day racers who can win it. Valverde has shown signs of aging, if the other guys don't take him as seriously as they should and he goes do or die, who knows? Nibali hasn't shown a thing so far but in Italy, he will want to shine, he can win one-day races.
This course isn't hard enough to have one rider dominate, tactics will matter, the winner will have to be good enough on short climbs, good sprinter, or a fox in the final. Experience will play a role, but again a youngster can throw this out and derail others' plans. Intriguing.
With less than 3K to go, one will attack, who will respond, we'll see. My pick: Vincenzo.
- May 17, 2013
- 7,559
- 2,414
- 20,680
Pirazziattacks
BANNED
- May 14, 2017
- 1,281
- 1,049
- 13,680
Not looking at power numbers during the race is the new marginal gain. If you free your mind, you can do anything you want.
- Aug 6, 2010
- 6,884
- 6,216
- 23,180
gruppettogazette.com - Informationen zum Thema gruppettogazette.
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- Jul 6, 2014
- 1,645
- 318
- 11,180
Has anyone ever had a run of results anything like WVA this year? Two big classics wins, followed by two tour stage sprint wins alongside some incredible super dom climbing and 2nd in hilly tt and then 2nd in WC tt?
In the age of specialisation, there has been nothing remotely like it. Even outside of this age, it is historically amazing.
In the age of specialisation, there has been nothing remotely like it. Even outside of this age, it is historically amazing.
- Feb 24, 2014
- 15,228
- 3,122
- 28,180
Have you seen the course?
Dutch girls should be held for a lap.
... seems to be the only way to level up the field a bit with Vleuty allowed to start.
To me, it looks like the decisive move can happen at any point of the course, which makes it tactical on top of physically selective.
Expecting exciting races.
- Feb 14, 2012
- 222
- 21
- 9,080
I believe its because he is riding the Giro this year and after the Tour wanted to rest.
- Feb 20, 2010
- 33,066
- 15,280
- 28,180
Gonna be interesting to see how Annemiek is, to be honest. We know there's likely nothing wrong with her legs given how she was in the Giro, but it looks like there's a fair amount of technical descending in the course too, which she could understandably be a bit more circumspect in seeing as she's racing with a broken wrist, and also will she want to get away from too much pack racing as a result? Dutch team is so stupendously strong here that it feels like their stranglehold will be hard to beat, as ever. All eight could reasonably win in reality, depending on tactics, though I think parcours-wise they're into four tiers:
Italy will probably want a hard race, because Elisa Longo Borghini has no sprint and is comfortably their best option; Cavalli is going well as we saw in the Giro, but the durable sprint types like Balsamo and Bastianelli aren't here, and given her Giro form Elisa is the obvious plan A. She probably needs to finish solo so she should certainly be active.
Germany's team looks to be all set up for power rouleuses, as much of the team is people like Brennauer, Koch and Kröger who are power engines. As a result I think Liane Lippert is their best option here; I think she's a year or two away from contesting the win here but she was climbing well in the Giro and individually these climbs are within her remit - she also has a reasonably good sprint for if this is a small group coming to the line, however I fear that if a team like the Netherlands pushes the pace early she will find herself relatively isolated on the climbs.
No Amanda Spratt is a big loss to Australia who I guess will probably settle for Kennedy as plan B? Brodie Chapman, Shara Marche-Gillow and Tiffany Cromwell are all good riders on a punchy parcours, and would have been a strong support squad for Spratt, but they'll have to get creative with the tactics I would have thought if they're to win a medal here. The USA likewise are missing Chloe Dygert for obvious reasons - she has a hole in her knee the size of her knee - and she was a huge wildcard last year because of the lack of racing against the World Tour péloton she does. We have a team made up of mainly known quantities here, and it seems the Trek duo of Wiles and Winder would be the logical leaders here unless Coryn Rivera is on an absolutely incredible day; she has of course won de Ronde and the Trofeo Binda when on great days previously, but her ability to sprint after the catch is now a known quantity more so than it was back then and these climbs are likely trickier.
Next up Denmark; they may have a similar problem to Germany in that much of the team is built around strong rouleuse engines like Pernille Mathiesen, however with the recent Giro Queen of the Mountains in Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig, they have one of the bonanza leaders here and somebody approaching the race with great form on the kind of climbs that will be involved in the race. And of course, she'd be an immensely popular winner and the post-race interview would be a sight to behold. I think a bit like Lippert she will be isolated sooner than a lot of others which will hurt her chances, and she also doesn't have the sprint weapon that Lippert does, but she is also a more durable and proven climber, and combativity is the only way with Cille, so I expect her to be one of those like Longo Borghini that's making the race.
Great Britain are an interesting one because it is the tale of two Lizzies. Lizzy Banks has two career wins, both in difficult stages at the Giro, and Lizzie Deignan is a bit more of an unknown for form, having not raced the Giro as a leader, though she did string the group out at the start of the 12% climb in stage 8. However, Deignan did win La Course, although the climbs were not so tough nor as numerous as these ones, against the kind of group she may well find herself coming to the line with today (although the fact that the Dutchwomen were on different teams then and she and Longo Borghini were on the same team changed the dynamics of course) - and the Ardennes are well within her remit. Plus both Lizzies went off in an attack to settle the race in Plouay. The Barnes sisters are, like Denmark and Germany, possibly not suited to as many consecutive steep climbs as there are in this route, although Anna Henderson's phenomenal descending in La Course could be a helpful weapon to keep some helpers on hand. Ultimately Great Britain have been a tactically inflexible all-for-Lizzie team for a decade and in races where they had more alternative options than they have now, so I would expect that to be the main plan for today.
Poland will be as Poland do - Małgorzata Jasińska will attack a bunch at times when the bunch is quiet, and Kasia Niewiadoma will attack a bunch at times when it isn't. The presence of Gosia will be helpful for Niewiadoma, who is the obvious leader of the team, in that Jasińska is a proven climber with experience that means she is likely to be there later in the race or on the climbs than many of the helpers for other riders in a similar boat to her like Cille and Lippert; Kasia is the obvious leader here, loving this kind of steep short punchy climb and again having very little by way of a sprint weapon (she has been working on it so I'd put her above the very worst, but it's still a low percentage play for her and she prefers to attack), although it did seem like her form was beginning to wane toward the end of the Giro.
Spain are going from strength to strength in women's cycling and rapidly improving, which is nice to see after almost a decade of near total irrelevance after Maribel Moreno's positive test in 2008. I don't see them winning here, but Mavi García is an interesting wildcard to play, and in Ane Santesteban they have a very strong climbing helper. The injuries to Lourdes Oyarbide and Eider Merino naturally weaken the team, and it's too early really for Sandra Alonso, who got a very impressive placement in a sprint of the elites in the Giro, but for whom this level of field will be a bit much at this point of her career I would anticipate.
Belgium are a bit of an odd one; the fact Lotte Kopecky doesn't start probably dooms their chances of doing anything here, as she was on excellent form in the Giro. Obviously Julie van de Velde can climb pretty well but she was on bad form in the Giro and struggling, and their best option for this kind of course in the last couple of years would have been Sofie de Vuyst who is currently serving penance on the naughty step. France are a strange collection of odds-and-sods as their lineup; 40-year-old national calendar journeywoman Sandra Levenez has definitely earned her chance to race this, Audrey Cordon-Ragot will be road captain par excellence, and most of their hopes will come from the youngest riders on the team, Juliette Labous and Évita Muzic, who went well and won a stage at the end of the Giro to finish at the bottom end of the top 10, but at the same time that was from a break that was being allowed to go, and I feel we're a couple of years away from either of them hitting peak level.
The last teams with what I'd call genuine chances to podium are New Zealand - whose young riders have really caught the eye recently - and South Africa. The latter is unlikely admittedly; they only have one support rider for Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio and this has always hamstrung her in major championship races as she's frequently isolated early and forced to do a lot of work for herself. She is, however, a very strong climber and crucially a known commodity. The New Zealanders are much less well-known in terms of what their capabilities are and what their level can max out at. Mikayla Harvey looked like she was set to hold on to her top 5 position in the Giro Rosa, but on the steepest and hardest climb of the race she was instead taking time away from the likes of Uttrup and Niewiadoma and threatening that over more climbs she could even podium; Niamh Fisher-Black was less successful from a GC point of view but has proven very durable and was in the same escape as Muzic and Labous, only losing out from a bit of tactical naïveté (though talking about experience settling it in a group where the oldest rider is 21 is a bit bizarre).
Elsewhere, Canada are the most likely to prove my last paragraph wrong - they have six riders including Alison Jackson, Karol-Ann Canuel, Leah Kirchmann and Sara Poidevin, all proven commodities who arrive with decent form. I feel that the climbs here may be too much in this field for the riders who have a sprint weapon, and those riders in the list without a sprint weapon are not as strong as certain other teams' options without a sprint weapon. However, some good tactics and following the right wheels and they could profit from others' mistakes for certain. Norway also have six riders and Katrine Aalerud really comes into her own when the road gets really steep, but I don't think these climbs are long enough for her to use that strength as against some of the elite puncheuses. There are isolated strong climbers dotted through the rest of the startlist - Hanna Nilsson, Alena Amialiusik, Anna Kiesenhofer, Elise Chabbey, Nikola Nosková, Paula Patiño - and a couple of real wildcard riders, most notably Maria Novolodskaya who piqued a lot of peoples' interests with her constant combativity in the Giro Rosa, but I think realistically strength in depth means the medals are coming from the bigger teams here.
- leaders (van Vleuten, van der Breggen, maybe Vos depending on racing)
- secondary options (Vos if raced conservatively, Vollering)
- break monitors/outside options (Mackaij, van den Broek/Blaak)
- likely domestiques based on parcours (Pieters, van Dijk)
Italy will probably want a hard race, because Elisa Longo Borghini has no sprint and is comfortably their best option; Cavalli is going well as we saw in the Giro, but the durable sprint types like Balsamo and Bastianelli aren't here, and given her Giro form Elisa is the obvious plan A. She probably needs to finish solo so she should certainly be active.
Germany's team looks to be all set up for power rouleuses, as much of the team is people like Brennauer, Koch and Kröger who are power engines. As a result I think Liane Lippert is their best option here; I think she's a year or two away from contesting the win here but she was climbing well in the Giro and individually these climbs are within her remit - she also has a reasonably good sprint for if this is a small group coming to the line, however I fear that if a team like the Netherlands pushes the pace early she will find herself relatively isolated on the climbs.
No Amanda Spratt is a big loss to Australia who I guess will probably settle for Kennedy as plan B? Brodie Chapman, Shara Marche-Gillow and Tiffany Cromwell are all good riders on a punchy parcours, and would have been a strong support squad for Spratt, but they'll have to get creative with the tactics I would have thought if they're to win a medal here. The USA likewise are missing Chloe Dygert for obvious reasons - she has a hole in her knee the size of her knee - and she was a huge wildcard last year because of the lack of racing against the World Tour péloton she does. We have a team made up of mainly known quantities here, and it seems the Trek duo of Wiles and Winder would be the logical leaders here unless Coryn Rivera is on an absolutely incredible day; she has of course won de Ronde and the Trofeo Binda when on great days previously, but her ability to sprint after the catch is now a known quantity more so than it was back then and these climbs are likely trickier.
Next up Denmark; they may have a similar problem to Germany in that much of the team is built around strong rouleuse engines like Pernille Mathiesen, however with the recent Giro Queen of the Mountains in Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig, they have one of the bonanza leaders here and somebody approaching the race with great form on the kind of climbs that will be involved in the race. And of course, she'd be an immensely popular winner and the post-race interview would be a sight to behold. I think a bit like Lippert she will be isolated sooner than a lot of others which will hurt her chances, and she also doesn't have the sprint weapon that Lippert does, but she is also a more durable and proven climber, and combativity is the only way with Cille, so I expect her to be one of those like Longo Borghini that's making the race.
Great Britain are an interesting one because it is the tale of two Lizzies. Lizzy Banks has two career wins, both in difficult stages at the Giro, and Lizzie Deignan is a bit more of an unknown for form, having not raced the Giro as a leader, though she did string the group out at the start of the 12% climb in stage 8. However, Deignan did win La Course, although the climbs were not so tough nor as numerous as these ones, against the kind of group she may well find herself coming to the line with today (although the fact that the Dutchwomen were on different teams then and she and Longo Borghini were on the same team changed the dynamics of course) - and the Ardennes are well within her remit. Plus both Lizzies went off in an attack to settle the race in Plouay. The Barnes sisters are, like Denmark and Germany, possibly not suited to as many consecutive steep climbs as there are in this route, although Anna Henderson's phenomenal descending in La Course could be a helpful weapon to keep some helpers on hand. Ultimately Great Britain have been a tactically inflexible all-for-Lizzie team for a decade and in races where they had more alternative options than they have now, so I would expect that to be the main plan for today.
Poland will be as Poland do - Małgorzata Jasińska will attack a bunch at times when the bunch is quiet, and Kasia Niewiadoma will attack a bunch at times when it isn't. The presence of Gosia will be helpful for Niewiadoma, who is the obvious leader of the team, in that Jasińska is a proven climber with experience that means she is likely to be there later in the race or on the climbs than many of the helpers for other riders in a similar boat to her like Cille and Lippert; Kasia is the obvious leader here, loving this kind of steep short punchy climb and again having very little by way of a sprint weapon (she has been working on it so I'd put her above the very worst, but it's still a low percentage play for her and she prefers to attack), although it did seem like her form was beginning to wane toward the end of the Giro.
Spain are going from strength to strength in women's cycling and rapidly improving, which is nice to see after almost a decade of near total irrelevance after Maribel Moreno's positive test in 2008. I don't see them winning here, but Mavi García is an interesting wildcard to play, and in Ane Santesteban they have a very strong climbing helper. The injuries to Lourdes Oyarbide and Eider Merino naturally weaken the team, and it's too early really for Sandra Alonso, who got a very impressive placement in a sprint of the elites in the Giro, but for whom this level of field will be a bit much at this point of her career I would anticipate.
Belgium are a bit of an odd one; the fact Lotte Kopecky doesn't start probably dooms their chances of doing anything here, as she was on excellent form in the Giro. Obviously Julie van de Velde can climb pretty well but she was on bad form in the Giro and struggling, and their best option for this kind of course in the last couple of years would have been Sofie de Vuyst who is currently serving penance on the naughty step. France are a strange collection of odds-and-sods as their lineup; 40-year-old national calendar journeywoman Sandra Levenez has definitely earned her chance to race this, Audrey Cordon-Ragot will be road captain par excellence, and most of their hopes will come from the youngest riders on the team, Juliette Labous and Évita Muzic, who went well and won a stage at the end of the Giro to finish at the bottom end of the top 10, but at the same time that was from a break that was being allowed to go, and I feel we're a couple of years away from either of them hitting peak level.
The last teams with what I'd call genuine chances to podium are New Zealand - whose young riders have really caught the eye recently - and South Africa. The latter is unlikely admittedly; they only have one support rider for Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio and this has always hamstrung her in major championship races as she's frequently isolated early and forced to do a lot of work for herself. She is, however, a very strong climber and crucially a known commodity. The New Zealanders are much less well-known in terms of what their capabilities are and what their level can max out at. Mikayla Harvey looked like she was set to hold on to her top 5 position in the Giro Rosa, but on the steepest and hardest climb of the race she was instead taking time away from the likes of Uttrup and Niewiadoma and threatening that over more climbs she could even podium; Niamh Fisher-Black was less successful from a GC point of view but has proven very durable and was in the same escape as Muzic and Labous, only losing out from a bit of tactical naïveté (though talking about experience settling it in a group where the oldest rider is 21 is a bit bizarre).
Elsewhere, Canada are the most likely to prove my last paragraph wrong - they have six riders including Alison Jackson, Karol-Ann Canuel, Leah Kirchmann and Sara Poidevin, all proven commodities who arrive with decent form. I feel that the climbs here may be too much in this field for the riders who have a sprint weapon, and those riders in the list without a sprint weapon are not as strong as certain other teams' options without a sprint weapon. However, some good tactics and following the right wheels and they could profit from others' mistakes for certain. Norway also have six riders and Katrine Aalerud really comes into her own when the road gets really steep, but I don't think these climbs are long enough for her to use that strength as against some of the elite puncheuses. There are isolated strong climbers dotted through the rest of the startlist - Hanna Nilsson, Alena Amialiusik, Anna Kiesenhofer, Elise Chabbey, Nikola Nosková, Paula Patiño - and a couple of real wildcard riders, most notably Maria Novolodskaya who piqued a lot of peoples' interests with her constant combativity in the Giro Rosa, but I think realistically strength in depth means the medals are coming from the bigger teams here.
- Mar 13, 2009
- 29,413
- 3,482
- 28,180
- Sep 11, 2016
- 2,624
- 2,739
- 17,180
You forgot to mention that if Remco was riding this race, he would have won by a considerable margin.
- Sep 11, 2016
- 2,624
- 2,739
- 17,180
- Sep 11, 2016
- 2,624
- 2,739
- 17,180
- May 14, 2009
- 3,279
- 1,139
- 16,680
- May 3, 2010
- 4,489
- 4,581
- 21,180
The Dutch women will probably dominate again, although I don't know how AVV is after her injury. The absence of Bastianelli, Dygert and Spratt might make it even more one-sided.
****Van der Breggen, Van Vleuten
***Vos, Longo Borghini, Uttrup
**Neumanova, Deignan-Armidstead, Banks
*Van den Broek-Blaak, Vollering, García, Moolman
****Van der Breggen, Van Vleuten
***Vos, Longo Borghini, Uttrup
**Neumanova, Deignan-Armidstead, Banks
*Van den Broek-Blaak, Vollering, García, Moolman
- Jul 10, 2014
- 15,005
- 26,013
- 28,180
Before the race
And some Dutch fans
View: https://twitter.com/festinaboy/status/1309781321863041024?s=20
And some Dutch fans
View: https://twitter.com/festinaboy/status/1309781321863041024?s=20
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