Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 18: Borgo Valsugana - Treviso 152 km (Thursday, May 26th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2022 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread:

Stage 18: Borgo Valsugana - Treviso 152 km
Thursday, May 26th, 13:40 CET



Technical Overview:
The typical third week transitional stage, from the mountains back to the flatlands. The route will be mostly flat or even slightly descending, with just two minor categorized climbs on the way, that should both be absolutely inconsequential. The first one is at km 24, Le Scale Di Primolano (GPM4, 2.3 km at 5.7%), while the second is the Muro Di Ca' Del Poggio (GPM4, 1.1 km at 12.3%), that has been used multiple times in recent editions and never produced anything of note. It tops at 50 km from the finish, most being flat and on straight roads. After reaching Treviso, the peloton will cross the finishing line a first time before going on an 11 km loop around the town and reaching the actual finish.

Final km:


The Climbs:

Le Scale Di Primolano
: GPM4, 2.3 km at 5.7%
Easy and short. No profile obviously.

Muro Di Ca' Del Poggio: GPM4, 1.1 km at 12.3%
Some say the restaurant at the top is Vegni’s favourite…


What to expect:
As usual, depends on how many sprinters are left to contest the stage. If no one is willing to chase, the breakaway will take this one.


It's a breakaway day, especially if multiple teams with two or more riders go for the break - Who will chase ? Demare's FDJ are happy with their work, doubt UAE will waste riders for Gaviria when Almeida is fighting for GC, which s likewise for Bauhaus and Bahrain - I doubt QS can do it on their own.
Waiting for The Barb's 'Josef Cerny' tip :)

You’re very kind to have such a long memory, Greg!

For what it’s worth I think this is sure to be a sprint. I don’t think Cav would still be in the race if QS weren’t going to work for him on this stage. G-FDJ can therefore take a slightly more passive role in the chase, which should leave Demare with plenty of fresher riders for his lead out.
On the one hand I want Cav to win, especially since I hoped he could win 5 stages. On my other, injured hand, another win for Demare would be monumental, tie him up with Ewan, and finish his best GT to date. Obviously I would be happier for a Cav win but Demare would be a sweet filler.
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Some of the teams with a sprinter that haven't won a stage yet plus Demare's and the QS team will chase. Can see a small break being left to dangle for most of the stage and getting chased down late.. A large break would make it more interesting.
Feel like this is never for the break cause there's too much sprinty boy fire power left. Muro del Poggio might split the peloton in a way that enables good racing though. Maybe Alpecin or DSM will drill the climb for their sprinters or MvdP
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There are a lot of teams who don't want a sprint because its their last chance to do something. FDJ, Quick-Step and perhaps DSM will go all in for the sprint. UAE can't really afford to go all in for Gaviria, but they probably will. Bahrain will do nothing for Bauhaus.
Lotto, EF, Jumbo, Israel (Nizzolo out), BikeExchange, Drone Hopper, Alpecin and perhaps more teams will want to got in the break.

I think it will be a hard fight between the break vs roadblock FC at the beginning. It looks like a mainroad at the beginning, hard to block. It could be a stage like stage 19 in the Tour de France last year.