Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 7: Diamante – Potenza 196 km (Friday, May 13th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2022 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread:

Stage 7: Diamante – Potenza 196 km
Friday, May 13th, 11:40 CET

Technical Overview:
The Giro keeps heading north with a massive medium mountain stage that might do damage even to GC favourites. Starting from the town of Diamante, on the west coast, the riders will ride with the sea at their left for 35 km of rolling terrain, before turning inland and spending the rest of the stage in the hills. The first categorized climb begins immediately, and it is the very gentle Passo Colla (GPM3, 9.3 km at 4.5%). A very fast descent will immediately lead to the next climb, a classic one that has not been raced in a long time: Monte Sirino (GPM1, 24.4 km at 3.8%), a very long climb that officially starts in Lauria but de facto starts 8 km earlier. It is extremely irregular, with many big ramps followed by long false flat sections. The top is at 106 km to go, and its descent is only 10 km long, with a much more regular gradient. What follows is a 21 km long false flat section, both descending and ascending, and then the road will rise again towards the intermediate sprint of Viggiano (4.3 km at 6.8%). This could have been its own GPM, or perhaps it could have been part of the next one, since after a 2 km descent the peloton will hit the hardest climb of the day. Montagna Grande di Viggiano (GPM2, 6.6 km at 9.1%) is a very tough climb, always very steep and with many two-digits ramps. It tops at 60 km to go, and its descent is longer but quite a lot simpler. At 44 km to go there will be a 12 km rolling section, and after that the riders will find the last categorized climb of the day, La Sellata (GPM3, 7.8 km at 5.9%). It is a lot easier than the climb that preceded it, but it is still quite challenging, as its average gradient is lowered by a tiny descent near the top. It ends at 24 km to go, 15 of which are descending, all on wide roads but with some tricky sections. The descent leads directly to the finishing town of Potenza, but the fun is not over yet: there is still the intermediate sprint of Potenza Centro, around 1.5 km at 6% topping at 7 km to go, then a quick descent and the final stretch on an ascending false flat that becomes a very steep ramp in the last 300m. A very weird sprint to cap off a magnificent stage.

Final km:

The Climbs:

Passo Colla
: GPM3, 9.3 km at 4.5%
Basically a long false flat with a single steep ramp thrown in there. Weirdly, we have an official profile.

Monte Sirino: GPM1, 24.4 km at 3.8%
Missing in the Giro since 1999, from this side is long and very irregular. It has a couple of seriously steep sections, but nothing crazy. GPM1 is a stretch.

Montagna Grande di Viggiano: GPM2, 6.6 km at 9.1%
This one is a GPM2 while Sirino is GPM1. Sometimes I do wonder which sort of drinks they serve at RCS headquarters when they come up with GPMs…

La Sellata: GPM3, 7.8 km at 5.9%
Just a very regular climb, as you can see. Always at 6% besides the last km.

What to expect:
Tough to call. Everything here is possible, massive breakaway, no contest, GC battle… from Viggiano every spot is a good spot to attack. It all comes down to who is willing to do so.

Depends on the break composition. I expect a fuga bidone, and the GC teams should place a rider or two up the road.

Yes, Trek will police the stage start, but if 8 riders get away early, others should bridge up to them after a bit.
Reactions: Sandisfan
Biggish break of non/marginally dangerous GC riders, Trek control early, Ineos control the rest of stage, breakaway wins, GC contenders come in together a few minutes after, save for one or two gaining a few opportunistic seconds on the steep final ramp.
I think Kämna will attack tomorrow and try to get the pink jersey...
Kämna himself said he won't try. Of course he could lie but he would kill any break he's in because he would be the poison pill for letting the break go. I think the more realistic scenario is Lopez being not able to follow a move and Kämna does.

I think for the break I have my eyes on Schmid, Covi, maybe Vansevenant trying again. If a possible GC rider slips away I would be guessing Martin, Foss, Dombrowski or something like that.

In the end the race gets interesting if a team really turns on the heat on on the two step climb in the middle. Could be hart for someone to come back if a bad day strikes.
I’m choosing to be more optimistic about this stage, which helps motivate me to get out of bed earlier to watch. I guess I’m thinking that 4,500 m of elevation is nothing to sneeze at especially with most of that climbing in the 2nd half of the stage. I’m well aware that this early in a GT the favorites tend to want to keep their powder dry and ride conservatively, particularly when the race has a really decisive 3rd week as this one does. But among the GC favs are some (Carapaz and Landa perhaps) who don’t always ride like automatons and could be spurred into more action.
And if the GC guys do end riding in uninspiring fashion, it doesn’t cost me anything to have been optimistic ;)
Kämna himself said he won't try. Of course he could lie but he would kill any break he's in because he would be the poison pill for letting the break go. I think the more realistic scenario is Lopez being not able to follow a move and Kämna does.
Anyway, he must be trying something tomorrow, otherwise he wouldn't have wasted so much energy to get a bonus second
Call me a pessimist but I expect a pretty big nothingburger in the GC.

This IMO is a stage that could be the best or worst mountain stage in a GT depending on it's place in the 3 weeks, and this has a really bad place.

I guess it's a good thing there's still a lot of good climbers close on GC to try to go into the break.
Imagine tomorrow Nibali, who has nothing to lose...get a big break.....two go for him with the teams,, or to go the leaders themselves from the begining..boyh cases will have important consecuences...Very difficult stage to control..and I doub tIneos is cgoing to take the control from the begining, with Trek leader.
Mar 4, 2022
I think we might see a few riders who are 8 - 12 mins down trying to get up the road. Pedrero, Hamilton, Narvaez, Caicedo from the GC teams seem reasonable bets. Not sure any of the big favourites would be too bothered ahead of the weekend.
Reactions: Sandisfan