Sometimes I think humanity will grow and learn from its mistakes then I see people on CN still falling for @Ilmaestro99 Masnada propaganda
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better than expected indeed
First week has at least 2 time trails, 1 semi-mountain finish after quite a hilly stage, 1 real mountain finish (ok, only the last few kilometers count), 1 very good hilly stage. Only small dissapointment there is that there is not a hilly circuit in Napoli that they at least could do once at the end of the stage.
Second week has some great stages, but also some weeker parts. Less interessting part of the race I think is the combination of a rest day and than 3 not really interesting stages (Viareggio especially is quite disappointing, Tortona complete flat and the climb in the Rivoli is to far from the finish for the difficulty of this climb to see GC action). I'm afraid GC wise nothing will happening for a few stages. The Crans-Montana stage is definitely better than expected, but still, although the HC combo in the middle of the stage, there is a lot of flat before the finale climb. Team tactically there is something possible if you can bridge to team mates who can do the work in the valley. But it's very early in the Giro to see such a racing. Bergamo in mine opinion is slighly disappointing. The stage definitely is hard. But the Valpiana is a bit issolated. Is that hard enough for a >30 kilometer attack? I doubt. Nevertheless, it has potential the be a fun stage, also with the famous cobbled climb in Bergamo.
The third week is super hard. The Bondone stage is harder than expected. But again, but most likely it still is all about the Bondone. The Zoldo stage is better than expected and the final of that stage is actually quite nice with 2 steep climbs and a last bump to the finish, after already a hard start of the stage. The queen stage is super hard of course and offers probably the best possibility for a long range attack. Mixed feelings about the MTT. Hopefully it's not blocking the race.
Conclusion: better than expected, better than last years. But still very backloaded and a relatively weak second week.
First week has at least 2 time trails, 1 semi-mountain finish after quite a hilly stage, 1 real mountain finish (ok, only the last few kilometers count), 1 very good hilly stage. Only small dissapointment there is that there is not a hilly circuit in Napoli that they at least could do once at the end of the stage.
Second week has some great stages, but also some weeker parts. Less interessting part of the race I think is the combination of a rest day and than 3 not really interesting stages (Viareggio especially is quite disappointing, Tortona complete flat and the climb in the Rivoli is to far from the finish for the difficulty of this climb to see GC action). I'm afraid GC wise nothing will happening for a few stages. The Crans-Montana stage is definitely better than expected, but still, although the HC combo in the middle of the stage, there is a lot of flat before the finale climb. Team tactically there is something possible if you can bridge to team mates who can do the work in the valley. But it's very early in the Giro to see such a racing. Bergamo in mine opinion is slighly disappointing. The stage definitely is hard. But the Valpiana is a bit issolated. Is that hard enough for a >30 kilometer attack? I doubt. Nevertheless, it has potential the be a fun stage, also with the famous cobbled climb in Bergamo.
The third week is super hard. The Bondone stage is harder than expected. But again, but most likely it still is all about the Bondone. The Zoldo stage is better than expected and the final of that stage is actually quite nice with 2 steep climbs and a last bump to the finish, after already a hard start of the stage. The queen stage is super hard of course and offers probably the best possibility for a long range attack. Mixed feelings about the MTT. Hopefully it's not blocking the race.
Conclusion: better than expected, better than last years. But still very backloaded and a relatively weak second week.
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S.Yates is riding the TDF even if there are 150kms of ITTing - He wants to ride a different program in 2023.
Who is Almida?
With Remco and Roglic would be a very nice field. You never know with Thomas, or which Thomas is going to show up. Besides his age and his belly are growing every winter.
Probably but not guaranteed. Hindley was impressive against Carapaz in the Giro, after matching Carapaz on every mountain we discovered he had been saving his matches for the Fedaia. With 2022 Giro climbing form I don't see Remco guaranteed to drop Hindley.
Of course yes, nothing guaranteed, just my opinion. Just don’t see them on the same talent level.
I agree with you on their talent - that is obvious. It's just that Remco's superiority is obviously in time trials and his overall strength - a little like Indurain, except Big Mig rarely rode off the front. Jai Hindley is a pure climber, so based upon what we know I'd doubt that Remco could drop him on most climbs.
I think hindley's shape of his life was in the giro 2020, not in giro 2022. His performance on stelvio and piancavallo was at the least at the same level of fedaia, if not better. Remco of this vuelta couldn't drop hindley in his best shape, but he would beat hindley because he is so much better in the ITTs.
He won't need to. With the flat TT's there will be a big gap to Hindley already. That is the problem.
I see it more that Remco is a great time trialist and also a great climber, who has certainly ridden many a rider off his wheel from the front. I don't see him like Big Mig much at all. Mig to me was much more dominant in TT's and less in the climbs than Remco. Which is why I don't think Hindley will match him on the climbs, except where Remco would be defending from a TT lead.
Mig was also muy tranquilo, and didn't bother contesting mountain stages much. Not a personality like Remco's either, and as such his personality as a rider was very different.
I agree the route is a lot better than feared but I don't quite comply with the sudden appearance of what seems to be...hype? Ok, I admit, it's actually a decent route.
So firstly, let's get the good things out of the way (and I must admit there are quite a few).
The four main mountain stages, with which I mean Crans Montana, Monte Bondone, Val di Zoldo and Tre Cime all look really good and are honestly genuine surprises. Like Croix de Coeur? That run up to Zoldo Alto? Where on earth was that coming from? Genuinely can't remember when I was last this pleasently surprised by the inclusion of climbs in a grand tour. Monte Bondone and Tre Cime are more straight forwardly designed but both are seriously hard stages. This emphasis on few but really hard and well designed mountain stages is what I'm usually hoping for in the Giro so no complaints there.
I also like the overall amount of ITT mileage and I don't even have complaints about a TT like the Monte Lussari one (although I don't like its placement). I feel like the forum more or less agrees that the Plan de Corones TT's used to be pretty epic and think a Monte Lussari TT is just as crazy and exciting. I do love the possibility of an insanely hard TT that can lead to huge and unexpected time gaps. Even the most recent precedent for a late mountain TT, the one in the 2020 Tour, made for an instant classic, so again I'm fine with that.
Some more positives are that even though there are lots of rather flat stages at least many of them have a lot of climbing early on that will hopefully mean exciting breaks. There are only like 3 stages that look like uncontested bunch sprints while all other stages either have a tough start or some hills throughout to hopefully give attackers or the teams of more mountain fit sprinters the chance to drop their rivals. Then there are some more nice stages I wanted to give a shout out, in particular stage 4 and stage 8.
So enough with all this positivity, I'm starting to get bored.
My main problem with the route is the placement of the stages. First of all, the route is once again super backloaded, with 4 of the 6 most important stages all in the last week and the gc battle probably only really kicking off with the stage 9 TT in the first place.
Then I don't really like the order of the mountain stages. Despite the first two climbs of the stage, which are super tough, the Crans Montana stage will likely still be all about the final climb as it's the first proper mountain test. That's just a real shame. Meanwhile Monte Bondone and Tre Cime are such hard climbs that I just don't see anyone going earlier and although the Val di Zoldo stage looks great for attackers, it comes right before the two most important stages of the race which will certainly scare the riders.
The medium mountain stages are also a little meh, with the only really exciting looking one again coming right before a TT. That kind of stuff happens every single Giro and it just annoys the hell out of me. At least stage 15 comes before a rest day but even then I fear nobody will attack from so far out. Also, while there are only 3 100% clear cut sprint stages, which ich great, I see up to 9 stages that might very well end in (reduced) bunch sprints, which is anything but great. Then there are some other complaints like Gran Sasso still being a horrible mtf but nothing too big.
So yeah, I love some of the stage designs, I once again hate the order of the stages and there is some decent stuff in between. It's a real boom or bust design. If the first week is raced hard and time gaps are big early, I can see the Crans Montana stage exploding on the Croix de Coer and the racing never calming down after that. If the first week is raced conservatively and the time gaps stay small in the TT everyone will keep waiting for the final climbs and hope to have a great day on stage 20.
In any case, at least it's infinitely many times better than this years route. It's something like a 6 or a 7 out of 10.
So firstly, let's get the good things out of the way (and I must admit there are quite a few).
The four main mountain stages, with which I mean Crans Montana, Monte Bondone, Val di Zoldo and Tre Cime all look really good and are honestly genuine surprises. Like Croix de Coeur? That run up to Zoldo Alto? Where on earth was that coming from? Genuinely can't remember when I was last this pleasently surprised by the inclusion of climbs in a grand tour. Monte Bondone and Tre Cime are more straight forwardly designed but both are seriously hard stages. This emphasis on few but really hard and well designed mountain stages is what I'm usually hoping for in the Giro so no complaints there.
I also like the overall amount of ITT mileage and I don't even have complaints about a TT like the Monte Lussari one (although I don't like its placement). I feel like the forum more or less agrees that the Plan de Corones TT's used to be pretty epic and think a Monte Lussari TT is just as crazy and exciting. I do love the possibility of an insanely hard TT that can lead to huge and unexpected time gaps. Even the most recent precedent for a late mountain TT, the one in the 2020 Tour, made for an instant classic, so again I'm fine with that.
Some more positives are that even though there are lots of rather flat stages at least many of them have a lot of climbing early on that will hopefully mean exciting breaks. There are only like 3 stages that look like uncontested bunch sprints while all other stages either have a tough start or some hills throughout to hopefully give attackers or the teams of more mountain fit sprinters the chance to drop their rivals. Then there are some more nice stages I wanted to give a shout out, in particular stage 4 and stage 8.
So enough with all this positivity, I'm starting to get bored.
My main problem with the route is the placement of the stages. First of all, the route is once again super backloaded, with 4 of the 6 most important stages all in the last week and the gc battle probably only really kicking off with the stage 9 TT in the first place.
Then I don't really like the order of the mountain stages. Despite the first two climbs of the stage, which are super tough, the Crans Montana stage will likely still be all about the final climb as it's the first proper mountain test. That's just a real shame. Meanwhile Monte Bondone and Tre Cime are such hard climbs that I just don't see anyone going earlier and although the Val di Zoldo stage looks great for attackers, it comes right before the two most important stages of the race which will certainly scare the riders.
The medium mountain stages are also a little meh, with the only really exciting looking one again coming right before a TT. That kind of stuff happens every single Giro and it just annoys the hell out of me. At least stage 15 comes before a rest day but even then I fear nobody will attack from so far out. Also, while there are only 3 100% clear cut sprint stages, which ich great, I see up to 9 stages that might very well end in (reduced) bunch sprints, which is anything but great. Then there are some other complaints like Gran Sasso still being a horrible mtf but nothing too big.
So yeah, I love some of the stage designs, I once again hate the order of the stages and there is some decent stuff in between. It's a real boom or bust design. If the first week is raced hard and time gaps are big early, I can see the Crans Montana stage exploding on the Croix de Coer and the racing never calming down after that. If the first week is raced conservatively and the time gaps stay small in the TT everyone will keep waiting for the final climbs and hope to have a great day on stage 20.
In any case, at least it's infinitely many times better than this years route. It's something like a 6 or a 7 out of 10.
Again, I think you are likely right about Hindley I am simply challenging the confidence of your prediction. Nobody doubts that Remco would crush Hindley in TTs but I didn't see Remco crush Enric Mas in the mountains of the Vuelta. I certainly didn't expect Hindley to defeat Carapaz in the Giro as he did. That was elite level climbing at the end of a grand tour. Hopefully we get to see Hindley at that level up against Remco.
I also agree Mig is different to Remco, although Mig demonstrated what he could really do on climbs on Hautacam in 1994 and a few other occasions. Indurain's TT was so superior he simply didn't have to gain time in the mountains.
I refuse to believe it until I don't see him dropping 4 minutes on gran Sasso d'italia
are we sure the Crans Montana stage won't have long range attacks?
The second climb is 15.4km at 8.8% That is a very tough HC climb. Likely harder than the Grand St Bernard
The second climb is 15.4km at 8.8% That is a very tough HC climb. Likely harder than the Grand St Bernard
That stage is crazy hard, attacks before the final climb might happen. It's also the 2nd climb of the day at decent altitude.
Well I didn't say "crushing", I just think he'll drop him when he needs to. I see him as a level below Remco or Roglic or even Mas from the Vuelta in terms of climbing ability. I think he'll be in the group of contenders but will lose time at the end.
But realistically, looking at the parcours, and assuming both are there, Remco will be defending vs riders like Hindley when the real climbing starts. So I'll be specific. I think Remco gets time from Hindley on Stages 4 and 7. I think by the time the poo hits the fan on Stage 13, tactics will come into play and Remco won't be able to chase everyone. Could see Hindley gaining some minor time on the stages from 13-19. And yes, I'm fairly confident of that assuming both come into the Giro with great prep.
BTW, some of the climb profiles are really good and accurate.
The Tre Cime profile shows that nasty 13% ramp right before you reach Misurina, just before the false flat uphill drag starts. I kinda hate that one, after a few hours of riding and a few climbs that last steep ramp after riding Tre Croci (mainly Tre Croci from Aurozo until the crossroads to Misurina) often hurts and kills your legs.
The Tre Cime profile shows that nasty 13% ramp right before you reach Misurina, just before the false flat uphill drag starts. I kinda hate that one, after a few hours of riding and a few climbs that last steep ramp after riding Tre Croci (mainly Tre Croci from Aurozo until the crossroads to Misurina) often hurts and kills your legs.
"Hurts and kills your legs " is how experience that small little bump from Torbole to Nago before Santa Barbara so there's that. Although I guess they do use the much easier main road there
So much of this route depends on who shows up with what teams. I think Croix de Coeur is definitely hard enough to go for broke. It's no jokes harder than any GT climb this year.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/puertoapuerto_/status/1582098777531613184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582098777531613184%7Ctwgr%5E999c50694a1ff3a6aedb1cde473f8e985eff0306%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fcporto.ws%2Fforum%2Fthreads%2Fprovas-internacionais-de-ciclismo.17913%2Fpage-335
Hindley would drop this player who is on the right in the photo.
Hindley would drop this player who is on the right in the photo.
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