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Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 4: Venosa – Lago Laceno 175 km (Tuesday, May 9th)

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Remco seems to be much further ahead in form right now, then some of the others. I think he will attack to gain some time here or he may wait for stage 7.

He should be trying to maximize his advantage this week to build up a comfortable lead going into the 2nd week, where he will probably be able to defend himself or gain more I think.

3rd week anything could happen. We have seen riders crack unexpectedly before.
Or he is just much better than the opposition. He said he’s in better form than last years Vuelta so he developed some more the past 7 months.

If he want to compete in the tour he needed to be better anyway
 
If Quick Step wants to lean away the jersey.

Fortunato, Riccitello or maybe even Pozzovivo given he's 40 years old already. Leknessund might be too close to be allowed, but still possible.

Paul Lapeira probably goes for the mountain points again. Which should succeed. But the final climb should be too hard for him, unless he rather saved energy today.

The likes of Dombrowski are going to be present in the big breakaway certainly. But dunno if he should be taxed higher for a stage win, than those 3 names I mentioned above.

Might be just a really, really weak breakaway group instead though. Then, Dombrowski indeed stands a chance.
Or to Uran as well. He is old too!
 
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Has stated he's focusing on the bigger mountain stages a little further down the line.
I know, but if you looked at him today he even tried to briefly sprint with Pinot & Buitrago for the mountain points.

Even next week might be too late, given San Bernardino is the Cima Coppi and some high profile names are already starting to change plans.

That leaves tomorrow, Friday or Zoldo Alto for Fortunato. Maybe he should rather seek his chance tomorrow already than to gamble. Shape is there. Chance too. Try to take it and see whether that puts you in pink or blue.

But you might be correct. Too many riders still holding back. Weak breakaway. Lapeira, Dombrowski & Caicedo fighting for the win.
 
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Wait a second, doesn't the 3k rule depend on how the stage is classified, not that there is any flat before the finish?
no, it only depends on the finish of the stage, and whether there's a climb or not.

Edit: official wording:

"In the case of a duly noted incident in the last three kilometres of a road race stage, the rider or riders affected shall be credited with the time of the rider or riders in whose company they were riding at the moment of the incident. [...]

This article shall not apply where the finish is at the top of a hill-climb"


This still leaves room for interpretation, but most races seem to read "hill-climb" as "classified climb".
 
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Fwiw I think some people are being way too deterministic about Evenepoel's and Roglic' climbing shapes based on a TT and an intermediate sprint Roglic didn't even try to win. After all the premature conclusions made after Roglic won an uphill sprint at last year's Vuelta two days prior to being smoked by Evenepoel (and Vine) on Pico Jano, you'd think we'd collectively be a little wiser...
It was hard for me to tell if he didn't put a ton of effort into it or whether he just gave up seeing he wasn't going to get it, but there was a Jumbo leadout and he did jump on Evenepoel's wheel...presumably to contest the sprint. He certainly tried, at least until he realized he wasn't going to win it. How have you determined he didn't try to win? I honestly didn't look that closely at it.

I also agree little could possibly be learned by seeing that, other than a bit more evidence that Remco's sprint is not the joke it was in his first couple years.
 
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It was hard for me to tell if he didn't put a ton of effort into it or whether he just gave up seeing he wasn't going to get it, but there was a Jumbo leadout and he did jump on Evenepoel's wheel...presumably to contest the sprint. He certainly tried, at least until he realized he wasn't going to win it. How have you determined he didn't try to win? I honestly didn't look that closely at it.

I also agree little could possibly be learned by seeing that, other than a bit more evidence that Remco's sprint is not the joke it was in his first couple years.
I think he tried but not near full gas, had he felt he could pass Remco with ease he would have gone for it but, seeing that nobody else was contesting it, he settled for a simple 2 seconds gain for minimal effort
 
Well Roglic tried in the intermediate (or at least had intentions), he also was present with the sprinters today but in the end didn't try. I guess in both situations he determined he wasn't going to take it (or not enough that it was worth the effort). But it does show he wants to hunt for small gains here and there. Seeing stage 4 and the final.. its not an uphill sprint, but he should be the fastest (on paper) between the potential best climbers. (Remco, Hart, Almeida, Vine, ...) So i believe JV will still try to go ftw here.
 
I think he tried but not near full gas, had he felt he could pass Remco with ease he would have gone for it but, seeing that nobody else was contesting it, he settled for a simple 2 seconds gain for minimal effort
A little odd to have a leadout then decide it's not worth it against the guy you're already down on. I'll grant you it's possible. The other explanations include that he tried, saw he wan't going to be able to pass, and bailed, or less likely, that was a full effort and just got beat.
 
Fwiw I think some people are being way too deterministic about Evenepoel's and Roglic' climbing shapes based on a TT and an intermediate sprint Roglic didn't even try to win. After all the premature conclusions made after Roglic won an uphill sprint at last year's Vuelta two days prior to being smoked by Evenepoel (and Vine) on Pico Jano, you'd think we'd collectively be a little wiser...

Catalunya was a good guide no? Both riders were climbing okay then, only six weeks ago - we can assume they are both at higher level now.

But for this stage, Colle Molella and the final 3km of false flat seems custom made for a rider of Remco's strengths - if he wants to take advantage so early in this Giro. The best option for Remco's rivals might be to attack earlier and build up a decent gap. If not, Roglic might win a reduced group sprint.
 
LR is a wanker
That might be true, but other sources confirm that the 3-km-rule applies tomorrow:

Three Kilometre Rule
Anyone with a mechanical or crash within the final three kilometres can get the same finishing time as the group the were with at the time of the incident on Stages 2,3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12,14,15,17 and 21.

 
Based on 2 intermediates against Roglic?

He has done like one legit reduced group sprint on a flat stretch and he got 5th in a group with 2 sprinters in it.

He was the fastest of the GC riders in that flat, reduced sprint

He has got the better of Rog on the flat though. Not sure why Rog would be the favorite over Remco in a small group sprint.

2 years ago, of course Rog would win