Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 4: Venosa – Lago Laceno 175 km (Tuesday, May 9th)

[Red Rick]

He was the fastest of the GC riders in that flat, reduced sprint

He has got the better of Rog on the flat though. Not sure why Rog would be the favorite over Remco in a small group sprint.

2 years ago, of course Rog would win

I don't contest that he could beat Roglic. I think he's a favorite in a flat sprint as well.

But I also think in a flat sprint Pogacar is the gold standard for sprinters among GC riders.

 

[Potomac]

Every team with a 2nd option within striking distance needs to attack every time the road goes uphill. They need to make this giro absolute torture for Remco, both physically and psychologically.

Too many teams are happy to defend a 4th-12th place finish...thus they will work to pull things back.

 

[staubsauger]

Nah, this will start eventually. But only from San Bernardino onwards!

 

[Lequack]

Lafavere looks better when he's not always angry

 

[hayneplane]

A little odd to have a leadout then decide it's not worth it against the guy you're already down on. I'll grant you it's possible. The other explanations include that he tried, saw he wan't going to be able to pass, and bailed, or less likely, that was a full effort and just got beat.

Your first explanation is essentially what I described and also think is the most likely answer to what happened

 

[peterfin]

Remco should attack on that final climb if he has the legs, regardless if it is for the win or not. At the minimum he should set a really hard pace. It gives him an opportunity to assess the competition. It's good to know early who is really good and needs special attention.

 

[will-10]

I remember Pozzovivo's win here... rose tinted specs for life in 2012 (although not especially that Giro )

Hard to see past Roglic here

 

[red_flanders]

Remco should attack on that final climb if he has the legs, regardless if it is for the win or not. At the minimum he should set a really hard pace. It gives him an opportunity to assess the competition. It's good to know early who is really good and needs special attention.

You nailed it, he mentioned this specifically in an interview, that tomorrow and that climb will be a good time to see who in the GC is going to lose seconds. He doesn't seem to initially allow that it might be him, but I think given what we've seen that this is understandable...

 

[peterfin]

You nailed it, he mentioned this specifically in an interview, that tomorrow and that climb will be a good time to see who in the GC is going to lose seconds. He doesn't seem to initially allow that it might be him, but I think given what we've seen that this is understandable...

Ha, I haven't seen this interview. Great, he knows what to do! I would opt for the "La Redoutte" plan. Van Wilder sets a hard pace and he attacks towards the end. That looks relatively low risk. The differences between the GC favorites will be seconds but he learns a lot. If some are clearly better than him, pacing the steep climbs might be the best strategy going forward instead of attacking or he risks a massive counter. However, I have a feeling he is good 😉

 

[red_flanders]

Ha, I haven't seen this interview. Great, he knows what to do! I would opt for the "La Redoutte" plan. Van Wilder sets a hard pace and he attacks towards the end. That looks relatively low risk. The differences between the GC favorites will be seconds but he learns a lot. If some are clearly better than him, pacing the steep climbs might be the best strategy going forward instead of attacking or he risks a massive counter. However, I have a feeling he is good 😉

If I'm QS, I wouldn't want to burn a domestique like that on this climb, it won't be decisive enough to warrant it. La Redoute was a pretty intense effort for Van Wilder. Much bigger fish to fry later, keep him as fresh as is reasonable.

I'd think QS will set a hard pace as a team and watch for anyone attacking. Whomever falls away, falls away. If someone does attack, Remco covers it and sits on. I think the steep part of the final climb is too short for much else to happen.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

He's probably the fastest on the flat of any GC riders. Tomorrow is a flat sprint, not an uphill sprint

What are you smoking ? Did you start celebrate remco Giro win 3 weeks early.?

 

[CyclistAbi]

I would like to say breakaway but who are we kidding. Likely a first taste of some proper GC action. Teams might send some riders in a breakaway that should make SOQ work.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Difficult to know who gets freedom from working for their captain , but

Batistella, Konrad, Jungels, lastra, Molard, taramae, petilli, rota, riccitello, Ener Rubio, Verona, Barguil, Lecknesund, vanhouck, mollema, tetsaftio, formolo could all be up there.

In my opinion there is not chance that remco and his loyal teammates chase a break for the stage win. Up to jumbo and inoes to decide

 

[Ilmaestro99]

LR saying 3km rule applies tomorrow?

wat

Maybe remco will get a 'puncture' again after rolgic attack him just after the top

 

[CyclistAbi]

So theoretically if two or three riders go over the top together. And one starts distancing another. The rider behind has some options!

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

It was hard for me to tell if he didn't put a ton of effort into it or whether he just gave up seeing he wasn't going to get it, but there was a Jumbo leadout and he did jump on Evenepoel's wheel...presumably to contest the sprint. He certainly tried, at least until he realized he wasn't going to win it. How have you determined he didn't try to win? I honestly didn't look that closely at it.

I also agree little could possibly be learned by seeing that, other than a bit more evidence that Remco's sprint is not the joke it was in his first couple years.

It was definitely odd. I didn’t see it love but watched the video of the intermediate on Twitter. Roglic was lead out but then didn’t actually sprint as far as I could tell. He seemed content just to ride on Remco’s wheel. It honestly looked like he screwed up the timing or forgot to sprint. A bit odd. Most logical explanation is he is riding into form and trying for a Froome/Yates situation with Remco in the role of Yates. Remco, however, is a much better rider than Yates, so we will see.

 

[Tonton]

It's still very early, that pan-flat 35 km ITT has yet to be raced, so it's not the time to panic and throw the kitchen sink at the opposition. Yes Ineos and UAE are two-headed monsters...well, for now. We'll see on Sunday..

If I'm Remco, I want to affect Roglic's morale ahead of the ITT, get a few seconds on him tomorrow, and let Primoz feel the squeeze...it won't be "death by a thousand cuts": half a dozen will do.

Ineos and UAE will watch for now.

Break? I think that Soudal will let it go and see if JV freaks out when the break gets a 3-4 minute gap...5 minutes, they'll intervene....somewhat.

Pinot doesn't think that they'll let him go. I hope that he tries; there are KOM points to be taken before Sunday's losers decide to change objectives and get in the way.

 

[Tonton]

It was definitely odd. I didn’t see it love but watched the video of the intermediate on Twitter. Roglic was lead out but then didn’t actually sprint as far as I could tell. He seemed content just to ride on Remco’s wheel. It honestly looked like he screwed up the timing or forgot to sprint. A bit odd. Most logical explanation is he is riding into form and trying for a Froome/Yates situation with Remco in the role of Yates. Remco, however, is a much better rider than Yates, so we will see.

It was a debacle of a lead out, telegraphed, and to add insult to injury, it was Remco who took the wheel. Putrid...

Counting on opponents to fold, as you hint, is a dangerous game: no one is playing it. Froome didn't know that Simon would fall apart. It wasn't part of his plan.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

It was a debacle of a lead out, telegraphed, and to add insult to injury, it was Remco who took the wheel. Putrid...

Counting on opponents to fold, as you hint, is a dangerous game: no one is playing it. Froome didn't know that Simon would fall apart. It wasn't part of his plan.

Absolutely. That does not sound like a good plan.

I am struck however by the way narratives have faltered at the end of several recent Giros, likely because it is often just so hard.

2015 Contador nearly lost it giving up a lot of time on the Queen stage
2016 Nibali came back from nearly 5 minutes down
2018 Yates was unbeatable until he wasnt
2019 Carapaz staged a coup and Roglic lost steam

 

[houtdffan]

If Rog is playing the game of riding into form for the 3rd week, he'll find himself 5 minutes down at the end of Sunday.

Remco could take 30-45 seconds tomorrow and again Friday. A minute or more each Saturday or Sunday if Rog is truly undercooked at the moment

 

[Tonton]

Absolutely. That does not sound like a good plan.

I am struck however by the way narratives have faltered at the end of several recent Giros, likely because it is often just so hard.

2015 Contador nearly lost it giving up a lot of time on the Queen stage
2016 Nibali came back from nearly 5 minutes down
2018 Yates was unbeatable until he wasnt
2019 Carapaz staged a coup and Roglic lost steam

Well, imagine if Remco loses...this forum will erupt with excuses.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

If Rog is playing the game of riding into form for the 3rd week, he'll find himself 5 minutes down at the end of Sunday.

Remco could take 30-45 seconds tomorrow and again Friday. A minute or more each Saturday or Sunday if Rog is truly undercooked at the moment

If that does happen I think it might mean that age and crashes have taken its toll. But I do not think that will happen. Hoping for a strong Rog performance as a fan of Rog and of cycling in general.

 

[JosefK]

If enthusiasm for the GC battle was put on life support after Stage 1, then Stage 4 will likely pull the plug.

 

[Nick2413]

If enthusiasm for the GC battle was put on life support after Stage 1, then Stage 4 will likely pull the plug.

If that happens this race will still have the chance to become one of the most memorable ever. A massive comeback in week 3 after being down 5 minutes would make a blowout in week 1 worth it.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Well, imagine if Remco loses...this forum will erupt with excuses.

if he doest and win it, it'll erupt just the same..
that's his "magic"...