Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 4: Venosa – Lago Laceno 175 km (Tuesday, May 9th)

[movingtarget]

Depends on what sort of break forms and how Quickstep and Jumbo want to play it. 50/50 sort of stage re the break succeeding. Don't see the best climbers wasting too much energy on this stage.

 

[hfer07]

Remco just can't help himself so he'd be going for the stage win to do some showing off, forcing Roglic to counter.....

 

[Nick2413]

Remco just can't help himself so he'd be going for the stage win to do some showing off, forcing Roglic to counter.....

Unless Roglic is off form this would be a dangerous climb for Remco to lead him out, a bit too short and sweet still.

 

[Rob5091]

QS to let break go, Jumbo & Ineos will try to keep it close. If it's a decent quality break they should win the stage.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well, imagine if Remco loses...this forum will erupt with excuses.

You mean, unlike the pre-emptive excuses we've been hearing for the past weeks, as well as during the Vuelta?
Or does it only work when it's about Evenepoel?

 

[pelotonIQ]

Stage 4 will filter the GC standings and give us a clearer view of who the other strong GC contenders are (apart from Remco, Primo and Tao).

The last part of the final climb could be difficult depending how the fast the peloton rides the previous two climbs, also, it could offer a low-risk opportunity to attack and see if you can win back some time.

Remco looks very strong, what tactics do you think teams could deploy to counter Remco?

 

[Pantani_lives]

Remco looks very strong, what tactics do you think teams could deploy to counter Remco?

Keep two guys high in the GC: Thomas and Hart; Almeida and Vine. If their co-leader attacks in the mountains it will put Soudal-QSt under pressure. Act like Vino & Kashechkin in the Vuelta 2006.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This is Remco's first true test. Can he climb with the best guys? There is a downhill/false flat section at the end so it will be asterisked if he manages it anyway.

 

[Jan the Man]

This is Remco's first true test. Can he climb with the best guys? There is a downhill/false flat section at the end so it will be asterisked if he manages it anyway.

I would argue Today’s stage is not a true ‘climbing test’ - we know Remco excels on tough terrain. If there is a big GC fight i expect him to be strongest, realtively comfortably.

If for whatever the breakaway does not succeed and there is no significant gc movement and a smallish gc group contests the stage say 8-10 riders i would but my money on Roglic who i would still put my money on 8/10 in a sprint.

As for breakaway contenders Healy, Barguil, Zana and Ulissi would be amongst my most obvious picks.

 

[RedheadDane]

ortunato, Riccitello or maybe even Pozzovivo given he's 40 years old already.

Or to Uran as well. He is old too!

Have they (QS) specifically said they want to give the jersey to an old guy?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Or to Uran as well. He is old too!

Maybe they’ll through Uran a bone due to past services.

 

[search]

QS to let break go, Jumbo & Ineos will try to keep it close. If it's a decent quality break they should win the stage.

I actually wouldn't be too surprised to see Sivakov in the move. He tends to go on the attack even when he normally is too much of a danger in GC.

 

[Lequack]

Jumbo don't have an option to do a 1-2 like they did in the Tour. But other teams should try, unless they are now just racing for 2nd place or lower.

 

[Riek s]

I don't get people saying that Roglic is riding into form. That is not how it works. You need recovery to get better. you don't get better in a GT (if you do --> there is another subforum for that).
Roglic is at his best and i expect something from him today. (And i'm expecting his climbing to be above what he has shown before in any GT for that matter). (He looks extremely slim, not undercooked at all, no margin)

 

[Volderke]

I don't contest that he could beat Roglic. I think he's a favorite in a flat sprint as well.

But I also think in a flat sprint Pogacar is the gold standard for sprinters among GC riders.

Wva.

 

[Volderke]

I don't get people saying that Roglic is riding into form. That is not how it works. You need recovery to get better. you don't get better in a GT (if you do --> there is another subforum for that).
Roglic is at his best and i expect something from him today. (And i'm expecting his climbing to be above what he has shown before in any GT for that matter). (He looks extremely slim, not undercooked at all, no margin)

Exactly.

The only way you go 'down' in the 3rd week is because you have spent too much energy in the first couple of weeks (or in the weeks before the GT).
Those (of the GC riders) that emerge in the third week, aren't improving: They are deteriorating slower.

You have 3 scenarios:
1. you are in top shape and you save energy as much as possible in the first half of the GT --> you deteriorate but you seem to improve relative to your competitors in the 3rd week.
2. you are in top shape and you save energy as much as possible, but you are already for a long time in top shape or you are slightly overtrained --> you will deteriorate faster.
3. you are not in top shape. No matter what you do, you won't recover as much, you won't save energy as much, so you won't emerge in the 3rd week, unless you ride the first 2 weeks as training and are prepared to lose a massive amount of time so you could try to win a stage in the 3rd week.

As for Remco, he is probably in top shape, and if he saves energy, he can cope well with that 3rd week. But if he goes berserk or if he was too enthusiastic in his preparation (going 'the extra mile' = doing too much), he could well run out of energy.
As for Primoz, I think he is just fine. People overestimate his flat TT abilities (especially compared to an ever improving Remco), but he did quite well / according to his capabilities. And while he is a bit older (which could be a reason for not being as good anymore as say in 2020), he is still a force to be reckoned with. If he can save energy, he is probably still as good as any other top-5 rider uphill.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If he can save energy, he is probably still as good as any other top-5 rider uphill.

Who do you recon are the 4 riders you would put ahead.

 

[KZD]

Wva.

He is not a GC rider though so not sure what is the point in mentioning him.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Helping Remco to keep the pink is i guess the least that peloton can do today.

 

[MrTea1976]

UAE or Ineos for the win today. Non-Jumbo pressure on Remco.

 

[fox]

This is Remco's first true test. Can he climb with the best guys? There is a downhill/false flat section at the end so it will be asterisked if he manages it anyway.

A test for Remco? It is a test for the rest to see if they can keep up with Remco, not the other way around. He is the last Grand Tour winner and he is the last climbing monument winner.

 

[staubsauger]

A test for Remco? It is a test for the rest to see if they can keep up with Remco, not the other way around. He is the last Grand Tour winner and he is the last climbing monument winner.

Indeed. The tests for Remco appear later in this race. This is a climb he can stomp his authority like Zülle did in 1998,if he wants to.

 

[search]

Indeed. The tests for Remco appear later in this race. This is a climb he can stomp his authority like Zülle did in 1998,if he wants to.

he always wants to, I think, and Lodewyck said "Maybe Remco will feel very good tomorrow [today] and the competition a little less. Then there's always the chance to take some seconds. I think that Remco is doing well, and the competition maybe slightly less so."

So it doesn't really sound like the team will hold him back.

 

[Volderke]

Who do you recon are the 4 riders you would put ahead.

There are some very fine climbers, that could easily end up in the top 5 as this is still a mountain-heavy Giro, thinking about Jay Vine, Jay Hindley, Vlasov, Hart. Those are not necessarily ending up higher in GC, but while they are close in GC, they are contenders and should be kept at a thight leash. I'm not sure if e.g. Roglic AND Evenepoel can follow all of those (supposed they are in their best shape) in the high mountains.

 

[Volderke]

He is not a GC rider though so not sure what is the point in mentioning him.