Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

[Riek s]

I don't think it is predictable how the favorites will handle the third week, which has 15,000 meters of climbing. It's not a given for Evenepoel, nor Roglic or the others. If someone has a big lead, he can be attacked.

I think this is the biggest unknown. How will Remco and Rog be in the last week/days of the Giro. Very hard, impossible to predict. I can even imagine both bonking completely on the final stages because of their battle.

A lot will depend on recovery and managing output. (Almeida style).
Might be better to loose a few seconds here and there and not go over the limit to avoid/limit bonking here. I think Remco will need to keep his ego in check. (even more than in the Vuelta. Riding in 3rd position is a lot harder than riding in the body of the peleton. That will cost him if he does that here on all stages.) And roglic has the experience of bonking at the end and is overal better in managing his efforts.

 

[greyclouds]

It will be interesting to see how Remco and Roglic will perform here. Both amazing riders, certainly one or two steps above everyone else, but both with their best performances (or recent performances in Roglics case) at the Vuelta - which is a completely different GT. My prediction: Remco will win, even if the final distance to the second is mostly dictated by the TTs. Roglic will bonk (or crash) and will be out of the top GC positions. Almeida and Vlasov will fight for the podium spots, but will face a late challenge from Thomas. Buitrago and Vine will surprise.

 

[Extinction]

I think this is the biggest unknown. How will Remco and Rog be in the last week/days of the Giro. Very hard, impossible to predict. I can even imagine both bonking completely on the final stages because of their battle.

A lot will depend on recovery and managing output. (Almeida style).
Might be better to loose a few seconds here and there and not go over the limit to avoid/limit bonking here. I think Remco will need to keep his ego in check. (even more than in the Vuelta. Riding in 3rd position is a lot harder than riding in the body of the peleton. That will cost him if he does that here on all stages.) And roglic has the experience of bonking at the end and is overal better in managing his efforts.

To the bolded, I agree with this. The third week will require reserves. It's going to be harder than anything they've ever tackled on a bicycle. Everyone is talking about this, it's known, so it's going to be about who has more in the tank over the course of the final stages, from Crans Montagna, to Tre Cime, to the last TT. It's going to be spectacular. The one who manages himself well and is the strongest shall win. I'd like to think having blown completely on, when was it, stage 16 of his first Giro, Remco has made a treasure of that lesson and carries the experience into the third week of this Giro, but we shall see. Although at the time he simply wasn't prepared well enough to go the distance of a full grand tour, but he must be warry that it doesn't happen again. Having said that I think Soudal anticipates Remco will have an advantage from the first two TTs going into the last week, but if he doesn't I think It would mean someone like Roglic was just too strong. In other words, if Remco isn't in pink going into week three, I'd rate his chances of overall victory in Roma significantly less. However, with Remco in pink after say stage 9, this means Soudal has to ride at the front for over half of the race to bring Remco in pink at Roma. Perhaps Jumbo in particular relishes this, knowing that Soudal isn't the super team that can just control the race over this third week, having had to already take over the reigns from stage 10 (if my hypothetical scenario is correct). And so, perhaps with common interests with say Ineos and Bora, will plan a third week Remco ambush, at which point Evenepoel would really need to show his stuff as they say. Will he have managed himself well enough to have the reserves to demonstrate his mettile when it truly counts? On the other hand, it's the same for Roglic and the others. It could be a real slugfest. No, this Giro might be one for the history books, if the third week plays out as dramatically as it's difficulty promises. Of course, I'd be happy if Remco simply crushes the race, but it's not a given by any means.

 

[Pantani_lives]

This is how I rank the Giro favorites:

1. Evenepoel: He's an exceptional time trialist and tempo climber. His team is strong and motivated to work for him. The only doubt is in the toughest mountain stages. The last two Fridays, with several huge climbs, will be the big challenge.
2. Roglic: To copy Tony Rominger's list of GT podium spots he needs one Giro victory. Unfortunately the course is too tough to be decided on bonus seconds, and his team is weakened. He'll need three good trials and hope that the others have a bad day.
3. Thomas: Ineos has a strong team and will probably try to keep both leaders high in the GC.
4. Hart: Ineos has a strong team and will probably try to keep both leaders high in the GC.
5. Vlasov: He's one of the best climbers and very constant over three weeks. Bora has a good team for the mountains.
6. Almeida: On his good days he can compete with the best, but he's not the most consistent over three weeks.
7. Pinot: He's back in shape and willing to attack. Without his usual bad luck he's still a candidate for a good GC.
8. Caruso: Bahrein has several candidates for the top 10, but probably no one who can win the Giro.
9. Haig: Bahrein has several candidates for the top 10, but probably no one who can win the Giro.
10. Carthy: This climber can be at his best in the final week.

Honorable mentions: Vine, Kämna, Mäder, Buitrago, Formolo, McNulty, Pozzovivo, Urán, Kuss, Sivakov.

 

[Extinction]

To the bolded, I agree with this. The third week will require reserves. It's going to be harder than anything they've ever tackled on a bicycle. Everyone is talking about this, it's known, so it's going to be about who has more in the tank over the course of the final stages, from Crans Montagna, to Tre Cime, to the last TT. It's going to be spectacular. The one who manages himself well and is the strongest shall win. I'd like to think having blown completely on, when was it, stage 16 of his first Giro, Remco has made a treasure of that lesson and carries the experience into the third week of this Giro, but we shall see. Although at the time he simply wasn't prepared well enough to go the distance of a full grand tour, but he must be warry that it doesn't happen again. Having said that I think Soudal anticipates Remco will have an advantage from the first two TTs going into the last week, but if he doesn't I think It would mean someone like Roglic was just too strong. In other words, if Remco isn't in pink going into week three, I'd rate his chances of overall victory in Roma significantly less. However, with Remco in pink after say stage 9, this means Soudal has to ride at the front for over half of the race to bring Remco in pink at Roma. Perhaps Jumbo in particular relishes this, knowing that Soudal isn't the super team that can just control the race over this third week, having had to already take over the reigns from stage 10 (if my hypothetical scenario is correct). And so, perhaps with common interests with say Ineos and Bora, will plan a third week Remco ambush, at which point Evenepoel would really need to show his stuff as they say. Will he have managed himself well enough to have the reserves to demonstrate his mettile when it truly counts? On the other hand, it's the same for Roglic and the others. It could be a real slugfest. No, this Giro might be one for the history books, if the third week plays out as dramatically as it's difficulty promises. Of course, I'd be happy if Remco simply crushes the race, but it's not a given by any means.

Remco himself seems to give a response to what I posted in this pre-Giro interview in today's la Gazzetta dello Sport:

Since when have you thought about the hunt for the maglia rosa?

"Since the route presentation and from when I decided to be at the start. There are two very nice TTs on the first and ninth stages and even the mountain TT on the penultimate day you will use the TT bike, which you'll have to change during the route. The fact that there are 55 km of TTing (in the first two TTs) is music to my ears. The mountain stages are also very nice. The Giro is a new test that's perfect for me after winning the Vuelta. Now I have to rise to a higher level and I never had a doubt that the Giro was the right place to do it."

In theory your two main rivals are Roglic, 33 years-old and Thomas, 36. You are much younger than either: is this better or worse?

"Both. You can be fresher, but at the same time, if you lack experience, you can make stupid decisions. And a wrong choice can cost you dearly. I expect Primoz and "G" to be strong in the third week, which will be decisive."

The race begins with a TT: should you take the maglia rosa right away or is it better not to?

"The idea is to finish in the top 3. In such a pure effort, Ganna and Kung can be stronger than me. I just want to gain time on my GC rivals. But if I were to win...I'd really enjoy it! Nobody gifts you a stage win at the Giro and I'd have the maglia rosa on at the end of the day. I start with the idea to give it my all. One never knows. I've worked a lot on my TT bike."

So he's cognizant of the fact that he needs to come good in the third week, that his age could lead to poor and costly decisions, that the Giro will be harder than the Vuelta and that he must up his game and finally that he needs to gain time on his rivals in the first two TTs. Sounds like he's in the right frame of mind.

Lastly: Even in the last Liege you won solo, distancing the rest and putting on a real show: how important is the "show-factor" to you?

"The first idea is always to go for the win and for me arriving in a sprint complicates matters, because I could finish second or third. If I have the legs to go alone I must do it. It seems like I'm putting on a show, but it's simply my strategy to win. At Liege in the last 500 meters I did a bit of showmanship, because I had the necessary advantage and I wanted to celebrate in a nice way."

 

[search]

Corratec's team (Conti, Dalla Valle, Gandin, Iacchi, Konyshev, Quarterman, Stojnic, K. Vacek) is finally confirmed as well:

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Site will be available soon. Thank you for your patience!

teamcorratec.com

Tivani is out with visa problems, which probably explains why they announced it this late.

 

[tobydawq]

Gino Mäder out with covid. Arashiro replaces him. A bummer since they had a really nice team.

 

[frisenfruitig]

To the bolded, I agree with this. The third week will require reserves. It's going to be harder than anything they've ever tackled on a bicycle. Everyone is talking about this, it's known, so it's going to be about who has more in the tank over the course of the final stages, from Crans Montagna, to Tre Cime, to the last TT. It's going to be spectacular. The one who manages himself well and is the strongest shall win. I'd like to think having blown completely on, when was it, stage 16 of his first Giro, Remco has made a treasure of that lesson and carries the experience into the third week of this Giro, but we shall see. Although at the time he simply wasn't prepared well enough to go the distance of a full grand tour, but he must be warry that it doesn't happen again. Having said that I think Soudal anticipates Remco will have an advantage from the first two TTs going into the last week, but if he doesn't I think It would mean someone like Roglic was just too strong. In other words, if Remco isn't in pink going into week three, I'd rate his chances of overall victory in Roma significantly less. However, with Remco in pink after say stage 9, this means Soudal has to ride at the front for over half of the race to bring Remco in pink at Roma. Perhaps Jumbo in particular relishes this, knowing that Soudal isn't the super team that can just control the race over this third week, having had to already take over the reigns from stage 10 (if my hypothetical scenario is correct). And so, perhaps with common interests with say Ineos and Bora, will plan a third week Remco ambush, at which point Evenepoel would really need to show his stuff as they say. Will he have managed himself well enough to have the reserves to demonstrate his mettile when it truly counts? On the other hand, it's the same for Roglic and the others. It could be a real slugfest. No, this Giro might be one for the history books, if the third week plays out as dramatically as it's difficulty promises. Of course, I'd be happy if Remco simply crushes the race, but it's not a given by any means.

They don't have to ride at the front for over half the race even if they get the Pink after stage 9 though. If they are smart they could just give it to some weak breakaway rider. The only thing that matters is defending the time gained on close rivals, what is the point in trying to control the entire race for 2 weeks? Sometimes you see teams going overboard in trying to defend the jersey and trying to have a strong grip on a GT and I can't help but think "stop wasting your energy". Then at the end you see some of their riders are completely cooked because they have been going donkey mode for 2 weeks for no good reason other than to "flex", I guess.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Corratec's team (Conti, Dalla Valle, Gandin, Iacchi, Konyshev, Quarterman, Stojnic, K. Vacek) is finally confirmed as well:

Site is undergoing maintenance

Site will be available soon. Thank you for your patience!

teamcorratec.com

Tivani is out with visa problems, which probably explains why they announced it this late.

Yikes, someone must have messed up badly. Italian teams/teams being based in Italy usuallly have zero problems getting a work visa for their riders. With Argentina it really shouldn't be a problem, even for all the Eritrean riders on the DD/Qhuebeka it was never a problem, many of them were even based in Italy during the season. Getting a work visa for Italy is really unproblematic if you're riding for a team that is Italian/based in Italy.

At least their jersey is now even more Italian PCT style with Selle Italia coming on as a co-sponsor.

 

[Ranagazoo]

Why on earth are corratec even in this race? Q36.5 are considerably better

 

[search]

Yikes, someone must have messed up badly. Italian teams/teams being based in Italy usuallly have zero problems getting a work visa for their riders.

didn't Savio only use to get 90 day visas for his South American riders as well? Tivani came to Europe in February, so that would indeed expire about now.

 

[KZD]

The more we are reaching the start date of the race, the more I am getting the feeling that someone else outside Remco and Roglič could win this. Not that I think that anyone will be stronger than them but with covid on the rise again among the World Tour teams and the three weeks ahead, I wouldn't be shocked if both have to abandon for whatever reason and guys like Almeida, Thomas or Vlasov have the opportunity of a lifetime to win a Giro.

 

[Filippo_3467]

Lol, what? Fabbro has been an amazing helper for two seasons. He's not going for his own results, but whenever you saw someone working really hard for the Bora team as a domestique in the mountains it was Fabbro. Did you watch? The others are a lot worse, and I don't know why they took off Fabbro from the Giro team, but I'm sure it wasn't because he's not good enough.

Can you help me out with a specific example where he was an amazing helper? Sorry I just don't see it. I'm following the team closely mostly because I'm german and what I saw in the last few years were nothing like you describe the situation. even when the form was there (e.g. Lombardia last year) his pulls were not sound in the way he rode them (going to hard and then burning too quickly).

Of course there are multiple factors: what did the team tell him? What was the plan? what are his roles in certain stages? We don't know that. Plus there's not much you can do with a skinny mountain rider otherwise then having him help on the steeper stuff, as Fabbro can't be a rider that pulls on the flat and in positioning battles. So we have to compare him more to a Ellisonde e.g.

because he is not very versatile to me Fabbro is only a guy you can bring into a good GT team when he can make the 25-30 rider selection in mountain stages especially the multi mountain monster stages as for unipuerto stages you can live with bigger guys positioning your gc guy. Fabbro failes time after time to reach that level in GTs and bigger one-week races (ToA he was ok I give you that but his third out of the break was not very impressive, Lipowitz was there even stronger within the same team and worked for fabbro). He brings also nothing else to the Table. he couldn't take Top 10 places in smaller stage races and one-days when he could go for his own result and he is doing nothing from breaks.

I would have taken him over Palzer to the Giro if it was up to me, as I would rate Fabbro higher on the mountain stages in third week and there's also the hope that he reaches peak form like in T-A again. Maybe he was sick ofter ToA as this should have closed the deal. Palzer communicated via the German Press time and time again that the Giro is his big career goal and it could be that they are making a whole thing about it wit red Bull and therefore he was nominated for pure marketing races. One difference is that Palzer has more to give on the flats, but yeah I'm not a fan of his nomination either. this squad would profit much more from Schelling or a zwiehoff in the line-up but they weren't listed for the Giro at any time so I think they have other GT goals this season (Vuelta).

 

[Mayomaniac]

didn't Savio only use to get 90 day visas for his South American riders as well? Tivani came to Europe in February, so that would indeed expire about now.

And Team Colombia. Someone has messed up, because getting work Visa when you're under contract with an Italian team/a team that is based in Italy is super easy and unproblematic.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Can you help me out with a specific example where he was an amazing helper? Sorry I just don't see it. I'm following the team closely mostly because I'm german and what I saw in the last few years were nothing like you describe the situation. even when the form was there (e.g. Lombardia last year) his pulls were not sound in the way he rode them (going to hard and then burning too quickly).

Of course there are multiple factors: what did the team tell him? What was the plan? what are his roles in certain stages? We don't know that. Plus there's not much you can do with a skinny mountain rider otherwise then having him help on the steeper stuff, as Fabbro can't be a rider that pulls on the flat and in positioning battles. So we have to compare him more to a Ellisonde e.g.

because he is not very versatile to me Fabbro is only a guy you can bring into a good GT team when he can make the 25-30 rider selection in mountain stages especially the multi mountain monster stages as for unipuerto stages you can live with bigger guys positioning your gc guy. Fabbro failes time after time to reach that level in GTs and bigger one-week races (ToA he was ok I give you that but his third out of the break was not very impressive, Lipowitz was there even stronger within the same team and worked for fabbro). He brings also nothing else to the Table. he couldn't take Top 10 places in smaller stage races and one-days when he could go for his own result and he is doing nothing from breaks.

I would have taken him over Palzer to the Giro if it was up to me, as I would rate Fabbro higher on the mountain stages in third week and there's also the hope that he reaches peak form like in T-A again. Maybe he was sick ofter ToA as this should have closed the deal. Palzer communicated via the German Press time and time again that the Giro is his big career goal and it could be that they are making a whole thing about it wit red Bull and therefore he was nominated for pure marketing races. One difference is that Palzer has more to give on the flats, but yeah I'm not a fan of his nomination either. this squad would profit much more from Schelling or a zwiehoff in the line-up but they weren't listed for the Giro at any time so I think they have other GT goals this season (Vuelta).

I'm not that sure about Fabbro in the high mountains/on multi mountain stages. On the other hand I do rate him higher that Palzer on an easier stage with a big MTF and on hilly terrain, for his size his engine isn't bad at all.

 

[staubsauger]

Tiviani just rode in Italy on Mayday!
Very weird.

Yikes, someone must have messed up badly. Italian teams/teams being based in Italy usuallly have zero problems getting a work visa for their riders. With Argentina it really shouldn't be a problem, even for all the Eritrean riders on the DD/Qhuebeka it was never a problem, many of them were even based in Italy during the season. Getting a work visa for Italy is really unproblematic if you're riding for a team that is Italian/based in Italy.

At least their jersey is now even more Italian PCT style with Selle Italia coming on as a co-sponsor.

 

[Extinction]

They don't have to ride at the front for over half the race even if they get the Pink after stage 9 though. If they are smart they could just give it to some weak breakaway rider. The only thing that matters is defending the time gained on close rivals, what is the point in trying to control the entire race for 2 weeks? Sometimes you see teams going overboard in trying to defend the jersey and trying to have a strong grip on a GT and I can't help but think "stop wasting your energy". Then at the end you see some of their riders are completely cooked because they have been going donkey mode for 2 weeks for no good reason other than to "flex", I guess.

That depends on how tight the GC is and who they give it away to, but yes I agree with you.

 

[BR2]

Can you help me out with a specific example where he was an amazing helper? Sorry I just don't see it. I'm following the team closely mostly because I'm german and what I saw in the last few years were nothing like you describe the situation. even when the form was there (e.g. Lombardia last year) his pulls were not sound in the way he rode them (going to hard and then burning too quickly).

Of course there are multiple factors: what did the team tell him? What was the plan? what are his roles in certain stages? We don't know that. Plus there's not much you can do with a skinny mountain rider otherwise then having him help on the steeper stuff, as Fabbro can't be a rider that pulls on the flat and in positioning battles. So we have to compare him more to a Ellisonde e.g.

because he is not very versatile to me Fabbro is only a guy you can bring into a good GT team when he can make the 25-30 rider selection in mountain stages especially the multi mountain monster stages as for unipuerto stages you can live with bigger guys positioning your gc guy. Fabbro failes time after time to reach that level in GTs and bigger one-week races (ToA he was ok I give you that but his third out of the break was not very impressive, Lipowitz was there even stronger within the same team and worked for fabbro). He brings also nothing else to the Table. he couldn't take Top 10 places in smaller stage races and one-days when he could go for his own result and he is doing nothing from breaks.

I would have taken him over Palzer to the Giro if it was up to me, as I would rate Fabbro higher on the mountain stages in third week and there's also the hope that he reaches peak form like in T-A again. Maybe he was sick ofter ToA as this should have closed the deal. Palzer communicated via the German Press time and time again that the Giro is his big career goal and it could be that they are making a whole thing about it wit red Bull and therefore he was nominated for pure marketing races. One difference is that Palzer has more to give on the flats, but yeah I'm not a fan of his nomination either. this squad would profit much more from Schelling or a zwiehoff in the line-up but they weren't listed for the Giro at any time so I think they have other GT goals this season (Vuelta).

German, too. That's also why I watched him closer.
I can't give you a specific example since I'm not good with remembering specific events with names and dates. I just know that both this year and last year I have often thought that he was such a valuable helper, doing strong and long pulls on the front. After all Bora have been rather active for a team that often didn't have the GC leader or were not expected to work. Very decent climbers were dropping off when he pulled.
Maybe we have different expectations though and hence our different assessments? With amazing helper I don't mean he's exactly on the same level as Sepp Kuss. But if we compare him to someone like Kuss, because I think they aren't too different in their profiles, we can see that even Kuss often doesn't fullfill his task, struggles to keep up with the top 10 on a stage and people will say how overrated and useless he is...
So maybe I should back down from my "amazing" because the word might be misleading, but I think he's very valuable for a team like Bora that cannot pay as much as Ineos or UAE, and in my eyes he's very far from being out of work in the WT as you stated in your post.

 

[search]

Tiviani just rode in Italy on Mayday!
Very weird.

Tivani's first Instagram post in Italy is from February 8th, and 90 days on from then would be May 8th. He was a week away for the pan-am games, so he gets those days on top, but it would still only get him through the first week of the Giro.

Generally, this is not too unusual. It's also the reason why Girmay couldn't do the Ronde last year, for example. But Corratec's Giro participation was confirmed months ago, so normally they should have been able to find a solution.

 

[staubsauger]

Tivani's first Instagram post in Italy is from February 8th, and 90 days on from then would be May 8th. He was a week away for the pan-am games, so he gets those days on top, but it would still only get him through the first week of the Giro.

Generally, this is not too unusual. It's also the reason why Girmay couldn't do the Ronde last year, for example. But Corratec's Giro participation was confirmed months ago, so normally they should have been able to find a solution.

Then they would still have some time left to file his Visa subsequently while he starts the Giro d'Italia in mean time. That should normally work off. Or are you not allowed to start a race when your current Visa doesn't cover the full race?

He's not directly gonna get deported. In worst case he has to abandon the race. In best case the Visa application is granted on the last day of the current one.

 

[search]

Then they would still have some time left to file his Visa subsequently while he starts the Giro d'Italia in mean time. That should normally work off. Or are you not allowed to start a race when your current Visa doesn't cover the full race?

He's not directly gonna get deported. In worst case he has to abandon the race. In best case the Visa application is granted on the last day of the current one.

it would most likely be a 90/180 visa he is currently on. No idea if it's possible to switch to a different one before the end of those 180 days.

And it's also possible that he entered Europe right after San Juan, of course. February 8th was just the first post I found.

 

[staubsauger]

it would most likely be a 90/180 visa he is currently on. No idea if it's possible to switch to a different one before the end of those 180 days.

And it's also possible that he entered Europe right after San Juan, of course. February 8th was just the first post I found.

Very weird indeed. Probably the best rider on their roster and the only realistic chance for Corratec to win a stage at the Giro d'Italia. Then, they mess up his Visa application / prolongation.

Either fully amateurish or it's a Richeze CSF situation in reality.

 

[tobydawq]

The more we are reaching the start date of the race, the more I am getting the feeling that someone else outside Remco and Roglič could win this. Not that I think that anyone will be stronger than them but with covid on the rise again among the World Tour teams and the three weeks ahead, I wouldn't be shocked if both have to abandon for whatever reason and guys like Almeida, Thomas or Vlasov have the opportunity of a lifetime to win a Giro.

I would be shocked by a high-profile covid-related abandon. It's been three years now, and even back when the disease was rampaging, there were only very few DNF's (of course also many more restrictions).

Last year, Ayuso was third in the Vuelta with the disease...

 

[Tour de Berghem]

On Twitter team Corratec wrote that Tivani will not ride because he's sick, not because of visa problems

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Gino Mäder out with covid. Arashiro replaces him. A bummer since they had a really nice team.

Why are they replacing Mader with Arashyro and not Pernstenner?