2023 Tour de France CQ Game

Armchair cyclist · Jul 13, 2023

Stage 12
A breakaway as suspected, albeit a strange process to get there.

Green
Very good for one team, reasonably good for one, moderately good for many.

IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Ion	80	1
BURGAUDEAU Mathieu	50	0
JORGENSON Matteo	35	1
BENOOT Tiesj	25	0
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	15	25
PINOT Thibaut	10	1
MARTIN Guillaume	5	0
TEUNS Dylan	3	2
GUERREIRO Ruben Antonio Almeida	2	0
CAMPENAERTS Victor	1	0

A Basque winner*, so you know who is going to be top...

1	SamuCuenca	80
2	ZigZagWanderer	50
3	Leadbelly	18
4	The other 23 Johannessen teams	15

ZigZag paired Jorgenson and Johannessen: the lone Pinot picker is, not surprisingly, Tonton.

Standings

1	Search	448	0
2	Queen_Stagiare	428	0
3	ZigZagWanderer	403	2
4	Peixotini	396	0
5	18_Valve	389	-2
6	DJW	360	0
7	Red_Lobster	326	0
8	PostmanHat	316	0
9	Titan31	298	0
10	Riverside	295	1

Yellow pts

IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Ion	87	1
PINOT Thibaut	70	1
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	39	25
JORGENSON Matteo	37	1
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	19	5
HAIG Jack	8	3
TEUNS Dylan	8	2
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka	6	1
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe	5	3

CICCONE Giulio	-5	5
O'CONNOR Ben	-6	23
JUNGELS Bob	-9	1
BARDET Romain	-10	2
WOODS Michael	-11	1
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	-14	2
ALAPHILIPPE Julian	-16	19
LANDA MEANA Mikel	-16	4
BUCHMANN Emanuel	-20	2
JAKOBSEN Fabio	-20	10
KUSS Sepp	-20	1
GALL Felix	-21	3
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David	-37	1

1	SamuCuenca	77
2	Mellow_Velo	64
3	AmisVelo	60
4	ZigZagWanderer	54
5	Evans_is_the_Best	52
6	Tonton	47
7	Devils_Elbow	40
8	Leadbelly	38
9	Rote_Laterne	35
10	Titan31	33
11	DJW	30
12	Triley36	28
13	Vladimir	25
14	Anderis	23
14	Bminchow	23
14	Ricco	23
17	Peixotini	17
18	PostmanHat	16
19	Madrazo	15
20	Northerner	13
20	Riverside	13
20	Search	13
23	BluesInTheBottle	9
23	Comodoro	9
25	Scrooll07	7
26	Queen_Stagiare	6
27	Salvarani	0
28	Del1962	-5
28	Marek	-5
30	Rufs	-6
31	ArchieBoy	-9
32	Laarsland	-12
33	Berlus	-20
33	RedheadDane	-20
35	18_Valve	-24
35	BicycleBoy	-24
35	DJSprtsch	-24
38	Lecko	-25
39	Yellow_Knight	-30
40	Armchair_Cyclist	-38
40	Red_Lobster	-38
42	Kazistuta	-40
43	JumboVismaFan	-72
	Collective_Wisdom	18
	Pog_vs_the_World	-3

Standings
Johannessen moved from 3rd to 2nd in the KoM classification, but as Postman Hat has Gall, who he passed, he gains no advantage from that. Amis Velo, on the other hand, gains from that and from Vingegaard, and so extends his lead.

1	AmisVelo	1559	0
2	PostmanHat	1501	0
3	Rote_Laterne	1436	0
4	Peixotini	1339	0
5	Triley36	1284	1
6	DJW	1282	1
7	Queen_Stagiare	1268	-2
8	Titan31	1266	1
9	Anderis	1262	-1
10	Berlus	1203	0
11	Evans_is_the_Best	1199	2
12	Riverside	1193	-1
13	Devils_Elbow	1183	1
14	Search	1151	1
15	ZigZagWanderer	1145	4
16	Bminchow	1142	1
17	Madrazo	1135	-1
18	18_Valve	1130	-6
19	Vladimir	1119	-1
20	Mellow_Velo	1106	2
21	DJSprtsch	1043	-1
22	Northerner	1029	1
23	Armchair_Cyclist	1027	-2
24	BluesInTheBottle	1022	0
25	Scrooll07	1014	0
26	Leadbelly	1001	3
27	Laarsland	988	-1
28	Ricco	982	2
29	ArchieBoy	968	-2
30	BicycleBoy	950	-2
31	Kazistuta	904	0
32	Marek	872	0
32	Salvarani	872	2
34	Comodoro	852	3
35	Del1962	836	4
35	Rufs	836	3
37	Lecko	828	-2
38	Red_Lobster	814	-2
39	JumboVismaFan	802	-6
40	SamuCuenca	788	1
41	Yellow_Knight	784	-1
42	Tonton	508	0
43	RedheadDane	317	0
	Collective_Wisdom	1099
	Pog_vs_the_World	734

The DNFs are beginning to bite, even though there are relatively fewer this year than most; Red Lobster is down to half a team.

*Sounds like a post in the strange prizes thread.

Armchair cyclist · Jul 14, 2023

Stage 13
Kwiatkowski reminds us what his career might have been like had he not signed up to the SkyTrain.

Green points

KWIATKOWSKI Michal	80	4
VAN GILS Maxim	50	0
POGACAR Tadej	35	0
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	25	5
PIDCOCK Thomas	15	0
HINDLEY Jai	10	33
SHAW James	5	0
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	3	2
YATES Simon	2	14
YATES Adam	1	0

All 4 teams with Kwiatkowski also have Hindley: 2 of them additionally have Yates (Simon variety). But only one of the 5 Vingegaard teams has Hindley.

1	18_Valve	92
1	BicycleBoy	92
3	DJSprtsch	90
3	Yellow_Knight	90
5	AmisVelo	35
6	Triley36	28
7	Evans_is_the_Best	25
7	Mellow_Velo	25
7	Scrooll07	25
10	Armchair_Cyclist	15
11	9 with Hindley and S Yates	12
20	18 more with Hindley	10

Standings

Search had been top since Stage 9: 18-Valve regains the lead he had after stages 3 and 4

1	18_Valve	481	4
2	Search	458	-1
3	Queen_Stagiare	438	-1
4	ZigZagWanderer	413	-1
5	Peixotini	408	-1
6	DJW	372	0
7	DJSprtsch	346	10
8	Red_Lobster	336	-1
9	PostmanHat	328	-1
10	Titan31	308	-1

Yellow points

Not the GC change that many predicted today, but some changes, and in the mountains classification too, so a bit of a shake up.

KWIATKOWSKI Michal	111	4
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	54	5
YATES Simon	32	14
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	21	2
KUSS Sepp	20	1
HINDLEY Jai	12	33

BUCHMANN Emanuel	-12	2
O'CONNOR Ben	-17	23
WOODS Michael	-17	1
CICCONE Giulio	-18	5
PINOT Thibaut	-20	1
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	-21	25
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	-60	3

1	18_Valve	147
1	BicycleBoy	147
3	Yellow_Knight	98
4	Triley36	80
5	DJSprtsch	69
6	Armchair_Cyclist	54
7	Scrooll07	53
8	AmisVelo	51
9	Mellow_Velo	31
10	Del1962	28
10	Rufs	28
12	BluesInTheBottle	26
13	PostmanHat	25
14	Vladimir	21
15	Bminchow	19
16	Evans_is_the_Best	16
17	Madrazo	12
17	Riverside	12
17	Rote_Laterne	12
20	Peixotini	4
20	Red_Lobster	4
22	Lecko	1
23	Ricco	-5
24	DJW	-6
25	Kazistuta	-7
25	RedheadDane	-7
25	Salvarani	-7
28	JumboVismaFan	-8
29	Berlus	-9
29	Laarsland	-9
31	Comodoro	-11
32	Tonton	-19
33	Titan31	-20
34	Northerner	-22
35	Devils_Elbow	-25
36	Queen_Stagiare	-33
37	Marek	-34
37	ZigZagWanderer	-34
39	Leadbelly	-42
40	Search	-61
41	ArchieBoy	-64
42	SamuCuenca	-66
43	Anderis	-81
	Collective_Wisdom	-12
	Pog_vs_the_World	90

Standings
It has been the same three teams in the top three since stage 6: is anyone else going to come into contention?

1	AmisVelo	1610	0
2	PostmanHat	1526	0
3	Rote_Laterne	1448	0
4	Triley36	1364	1
5	Peixotini	1343	-1
6	18_Valve	1277	12
7	DJW	1276	-1
8	Titan31	1246	0
9	Queen_Stagiare	1235	-2
10	Evans_is_the_Best	1215	1
11	Riverside	1205	1
12	Berlus	1194	-2
13	Anderis	1181	-4
14	Bminchow	1161	2
15	Devils_Elbow	1158	-2
16	Madrazo	1147	1
17	Vladimir	1140	2
18	Mellow_Velo	1137	2
19	DJSprtsch	1112	2
20	ZigZagWanderer	1111	-5
21	BicycleBoy	1097	9
22	Search	1090	-8
23	Armchair_Cyclist	1081	0
24	Scrooll07	1067	1
25	BluesInTheBottle	1048	-1
26	Northerner	1007	-4
27	Laarsland	979	0
28	Ricco	977	0
29	Leadbelly	959	-3
30	ArchieBoy	904	-1
31	Kazistuta	897	0
32	Yellow_Knight	882	9
33	Salvarani	865	-1
34	Del1962	864	1
34	Rufs	864	1
36	Comodoro	841	-2
37	Marek	838	-5
38	Lecko	829	-1
39	Red_Lobster	818	-1
40	JumboVismaFan	794	-1
41	SamuCuenca	722	-1
42	Tonton	489	0
43	RedheadDane	310	0
	Collective_Wisdom	1087
	Pog_vs_the_World	824

Spreadsheet

Anderis · Jul 14, 2023

Each day I'm falling down the order...

postmanhat · Jul 15, 2023

Yates beginning to slip a little, but Gall going in the opposite direction. Looks like it could be between mine and the Vingegaard teams for now?

QueenStagiaire · Jul 15, 2023

It‘s going from bad to worse for me.

RedheadDane · Jul 15, 2023

I'm not gonna drop any positions...

Armchair cyclist · Jul 15, 2023

Stage 14
You don't win a GC CQ game on one day in the Alps, but you could lose it.

Green Pts

RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	80	8
POGACAR Tadej	50	0
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	35	5
YATES Adam	25	0
KUSS Sepp	15	1
HINDLEY Jai	10	33
GALL Felix	5	3
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	3	3
YATES Simon	2	14
MARTIN Guillaume	1	0

1	PostmanHat	97	Rodriguez, Hindley, Gall & Yates
2	Rote_Laterne	92	Rodriguez, Hindley & Yates
3	Berlus	90	Rodriguez and Hindley
3	Devils_Elbow	90
3	Titan31	90
6	ArchieBoy	85	Rodriguez and Gall
7	Del1962	82
7	Rufs	82
9	Triley36	50	Vingegaard & Kuss
10	AmisVelo	45	Vingegaard and Hindley
11	Evans_is_the_Best	35
11	Mellow_Velo	35
11	Scrooll07	35
14	Laarsland	15	Hindley and Gall
15	Anderis	13	Hindley & Bilbao
15	DJSprtsch	13
17	10 teams	12	Hindley & Yates

Standings

1	18_Valve	493	0
2	Search	468	0
3	Queen_Stagiare	448	0
4	PostmanHat	425	5
5	ZigZagWanderer	423	-1
6	Peixotini	420	-1
7	Titan31	398	3
8	DJW	384	-2
9	DJSprtsch	359	-2
10	Red_Lobster	346	-2

Yellow Points

That single second for Rodriguez over Hindley will make quite a difference (Hindley's loss of points will be less relevant as he is on so many teams. Lots of GC changes farther down. Vingegaard not only hangs on to yellow and therefore gets another daily bonus, but moves top of the KoM ranking.
And of the multiple withdrawals today, Bardet and Chaves will hit some teams.

RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	140	8
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	125	5
KUSS Sepp	115	1
GALL Felix	75	3
BUCHMANN Emanuel	32	2
CICCONE Giulio	27	5
HAIG Jack	16	3
CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan	12	1
JUNGELS Bob	12	1
MADOUAS Valentin	11	1

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban	-20	1
KWIATKOWSKI Michal	-21	4
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	-27	3
YATES Simon	-28	14
PINOT Thibaut	-30	1
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	-31	25
HINDLEY Jai	-45	33
BARDET Romain	-130	2

1	ArchieBoy	217	Vingegaard and Kuss, but Johannessen
2	Triley36	207	Vingegaard and Kuss, but Johannessen
3	Scrooll07	129	Vingegaard
4	Del1962	125	Rodriguez, but Yates
5	Rufs	124	Rodriguez, but Yates
6	PostmanHat	111	Rodriguez and Gall, but Hindley, Yates and Johannessen
7	Mellow_Velo	110	Vingegaard and Haig, but Johannessen
8	Berlus	105	Rodriguez, but Hindley
9	Evans_is_the_Best	94
10	Devils_Elbow	68
10	Titan31	68
12	AmisVelo	53
13	Rote_Laterne	40
14	RedheadDane	26
15	Laarsland	11
16	SamuCuenca	-11
17	JumboVismaFan	-31
18	Tonton	-34
19	Leadbelly	-35
20	Lecko	-38
21	Kazistuta	-39
22	Search	-42
23	Red_Lobster	-43
23	Salvarani	-43
25	BluesInTheBottle	-53
26	Ricco	-62
27	Comodoro	-64
27	Yellow_Knight	-64
27	ZigZagWanderer	-64
30	Marek	-71
31	DJW	-73
32	Armchair_Cyclist	-75
33	DJSprtsch	-89
34	18_Valve	-92
34	BicycleBoy	-92
36	Bminchow	-94
37	Anderis	-95
37	Vladimir	-95
39	Peixotini	-98
40	Madrazo	-100
40	Riverside	-100
42	Queen_Stagiare	-143
43	Northerner	-186
	Collective_Wisdom	-84
	Pog_vs_the_World	45

Standings
As in the real thing, we have a new name on the virtual podium. Meanwhile, Amis Velogaard and Postman Hatacar are locked in an intriguing battle.

1	AmisVelo	1663	0
2	PostmanHat	1637	0
3	Triley36	1571	1
4	Rote_Laterne	1488	-1
5	Titan31	1314	3
6	Evans_is_the_Best	1309	4
7	Berlus	1299	5
8	Mellow_Velo	1247	10
9	Peixotini	1245	-4
10	Devils_Elbow	1226	5
11	DJW	1203	-4
12	Scrooll07	1196	12
13	18_Valve	1185	-7
14	ArchieBoy	1121	16
15	Riverside	1105	-4
16	Queen_Stagiare	1092	-7
17	Anderis	1086	-4
18	Bminchow	1067	-4
19	Search	1048	3
20	Madrazo	1047	-4
20	ZigZagWanderer	1047	0
22	Vladimir	1045	-5
23	DJSprtsch	1023	-4
24	Armchair_Cyclist	1006	-1
25	BicycleBoy	1005	-4
26	BluesInTheBottle	995	-1
27	Laarsland	990	0
28	Del1962	989	6
29	Rufs	988	5
30	Leadbelly	924	-1
31	Ricco	915	-3
32	Kazistuta	858	-1
33	Salvarani	822	0
34	Northerner	821	-8
35	Yellow_Knight	818	-3
36	Lecko	791	2
37	Comodoro	777	-1
38	Red_Lobster	775	1
39	Marek	767	-2
40	JumboVismaFan	763	0
41	SamuCuenca	711	0
42	Tonton	455	0
43	RedheadDane	336	0
	Collective_Wisdom	1003
	Pog_vs_the_World	869

The way this is poised, I suspect that there will be further days with a 400 point, or more, range of scores, so plenty can happen yet.

Armchair cyclist · Jul 16, 2023

Stage 15
Wout a race we are having

Green pts

POELS Wout	80	2
VAN AERT Wout	50	0
BURGAUDEAU Mathieu	35	0
CRADDOCK Lawson	25	0
LANDA MEANA Mikel	15	4
PINOT Thibaut	10	1
MARTIN Guillaume	5	0
SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias	3	1
GUGLIELMI Simon	2	0
BARGUIL Warren	1	0

1	Anderis	80
1	Scrooll07	80
3	Comodoro	15
3	Laarsland	15
3	Ricco	15
3	SamuCuenca	15
7	Tonton	10
8	Salvarani	3

Standings
Anderis is the only one of today's scorers who was already in the top 20, now in the top ten.

1	18_Valve	493	0
2	Search	468	0
3	Queen_Stagiare	448	0
4	PostmanHat	425	0
5	ZigZagWanderer	423	0
6	Peixotini	420	0
7	Titan31	398	0
8	DJW	384	0
9	Anderis	381	7
10	DJSprtsch	359	-1

Yellow points
Significantlosses for popular picks Hindley and Simon Yates, as well as for Vingegaard and Gall, who matter at the top of the table.

POELS Wout	94	2
CICCONE Giulio	65	5
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	30	3
LANDA MEANA Mikel	25	4
PINOT Thibaut	20	1
KELDERMAN Wilco	10	6
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	10	2

IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka	-10	1
WOODS Michael	-13	1
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley	-16	28
BUCHMANN Emanuel	-20	2
HAIG Jack	-20	3
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe	-20	3
MADOUAS Valentin	-21	1
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	-25	5
YATES Simon	-30	14
HINDLEY Jai	-35	33
GALL Felix	-45	3

Not for the first time, most teams are losing points today.

1	Scrooll07	67
2	Anderis	66
3	SamuCuenca	47
4	Leadbelly	28
5	ArchieBoy	23
6	Tonton	19
7	Search	12
8	Queen_Stagiare	-11
9	DJW	-21
9	Ricco	-21
11	DJSprtsch	-28
12	Evans_is_the_Best	-30
12	RedheadDane	-30
14	Salvarani	-32
15	Comodoro	-33
15	JumboVismaFan	-33
17	Marek	-35
18	Triley36	-36
19	Red_Lobster	-37
19	Rufs	-37
21	Lecko	-42
22	Berlus	-43
23	Yellow_Knight	-44
24	Mellow_Velo	-50
25	Kazistuta	-53
26	Titan31	-56
27	ZigZagWanderer	-64
28	Armchair_Cyclist	-71
28	Del1962	-71
30	18_Valve	-74
30	BicycleBoy	-74
32	Devils_Elbow	-76
32	Northerner	-76
34	Bminchow	-78
34	Laarsland	-78
36	AmisVelo	-81
36	Vladimir	-81
38	Madrazo	-86
38	Riverside	-86
38	Rote_Laterne	-86
41	Peixotini	-88
42	PostmanHat	-115
43	BluesInTheBottle	-121
	Collective_Wisdom	-73
	Pog_vs_the_World	-20

A good Alpine weekend for Scrool07, who was third yesterday and first today.

Standings
TRiley, who like Amis Velo has a team dominated by Vingegaard, moves up to second: other Vingegaard teams are 5th, 6th and 9th.

1	AmisVelo	1582	0
2	Triley36	1535	1
3	PostmanHat	1522	-1
4	Rote_Laterne	1402	0
5	Evans_is_the_Best	1279	1
6	Scrooll07	1263	6
7	Titan31	1258	-2
8	Berlus	1256	-1
9	Mellow_Velo	1197	-1
10	DJW	1182	1
11	Peixotini	1157	-2
12	Anderis	1152	5
13	Devils_Elbow	1150	-3
14	ArchieBoy	1144	0
15	18_Valve	1111	-2
16	Queen_Stagiare	1081	0
17	Search	1060	2
18	Riverside	1019	-3
19	DJSprtsch	995	4
20	Bminchow	989	-2
21	ZigZagWanderer	983	-1
22	Vladimir	964	0
23	Madrazo	961	-3
24	Leadbelly	952	6
25	Rufs	951	4
26	Armchair_Cyclist	935	-2
27	BicycleBoy	931	-2
28	Del1962	918	0
29	Laarsland	912	-2
30	Ricco	894	1
31	BluesInTheBottle	874	-5
32	Kazistuta	805	0
33	Salvarani	790	0
34	Yellow_Knight	774	1
35	SamuCuenca	758	6
36	Lecko	749	0
37	Northerner	745	-3
38	Comodoro	744	-1
39	Red_Lobster	738	-1
40	Marek	732	-1
41	JumboVismaFan	730	-1
42	Tonton	474	0
43	RedheadDane	306	0
	Collective_Wisdom	930
	Pog_vs_the_World	849

I hope to do a bit of "how do we get to be here" on rest day tomorrow.

Anderis · Jul 16, 2023

Bit surprised that only one other person had Poels. He was one of the cheapest riders out there and he seems to have reasonable level in GTs more often than not.

Samu Cuenca · Jul 16, 2023

Yes, I reached no. 35 before Cav!

rote_laterne2 · Jul 16, 2023

Poels didn't show anything the last years, IMO you couldn't bet on a stage win nor high GC position nor winning the KOM.

I would like to have had Kwiatkowski though I was very happy with his win. Always liked him, even being on Sky.

Anderis · Jul 16, 2023

rote_laterne2 said:
Poels didn't show anything the last years, IMO you couldn't bet on a stage win nor high GC position nor winning the KOM.

I didn't necessarily bet on a stage win, but among riders from his price range, he seemed one of the most likely to finish between 11-20 in GC or get a couple of top5 stage results from breakaways on mountain stages. That's exactly what he did on his last TdF participation.

EvansIsTheBest · Jul 16, 2023

Up to 5th now. Who knew that Vingegaard fellow was decent at cycling ? I'll probably lose a bunch of spots when Pogacar takes over the GC but my team was done the moment I picked O'Connor over Hindley and Rodriguez as my second GC option anyway.

Armchair cyclist · Jul 17, 2023

Second rest day

So which riders are earning us all those points?

VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	962pts	5 teams	35.8% return
POGACAR Tadej	729	0	18.7
YATES Adam	508	0	33.1
PHILIPSEN Jasper	470	0	25.0
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	466	8	62.1
HINDLEY Jai	432	33	64.6
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	328	3	34.5
KUSS Sepp	275	1	80.6
VAN AERT Wout	257	0	10.5
YATES Simon	257	14	29.5
GALL Felix	190	3	34.1
GAUDU David	183	0	15.8
CICCONE Giulio	171	5	18.5
MARTIN Guillaume	171	0	17.9
PIDCOCK Thomas	170	0	15.9
PEDERSEN Mads	169	0	11.0
PINOT Thibaut	165	1	14.3
BAUHAUS Phil	145	7	45.2
BURGAUDEAU Mathieu	144	0	55.6
WOODS Michael	141	1	26.7
POELS Wout	127	2	66.5
LANDA MEANA Mikel	125	4	12.2
BUCHMANN Emanuel	125	2	44.8
COQUARD Bryan	119	0	18.6
GROENEWEGEN Dylan	118	0	12.1
LAFAY Victor	111	0	25.3
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Ion	106	1	19.6
KWIATKOWSKI Michal	106	4	116.5
O'CONNOR Ben	100	23	15.1

Kwiatkowski is the only rider in profit for the year on this race alone (Cras was on course to do so until his crash and withdrawal). The other riders who are on course for a 50%+ return on investment are:

JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	82	25
CRADDOCK Lawson	45	0
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey	20	1
GOGL Michael	20	8
OSS Daniel	20	2
PETIT Adrien	20	2

So how are these guys represented in our top teams?

1	AmisVelo	1582	Vingegaard, Hindley (Johannessen, Gogl, Petit)
2	Triley36	1535	Vingegaard, Kuss (Johannessen, Gogl)
3	PostmanHat	1522	Rodriguez, Hindley, Yates, Gall (Johannessen, Oss)
4	Rote_Laterne	1402	Rodriguez, Hindley, Yates, O'Connor (Johannessen)
5	Evans_is_the_Best	1279	Vingegaard, O'Connor (Johannessen, Gogl, Oss)
6	Scrooll07	1263	Vingegaard, Poels (Gogl)
7	Titan31	1258	Rodriguez, Hindley, O'Connor (Johannessen)
8	Berlus	1256	Rodriguez, Hindley, O'Connor
9	Mellow_Velo	1197	Vingegaard (Johannessen, Gogl, Petit)
10	DJW	1182	Hindley, Yates, Ciccone, O'Connor (Johannessen)

If Vingegaard gets passed by Pogacar, that is 150 points off those teams that have him: if he doesn't they will get another 100 points from yellow jersey bonuses (regardless of stage points or what he does in the green/KoM classifications). The Giro game showed that a well balanced team can beat combinations that include an expensive race winner: in this game, that is very much a live question.

Withdrawals effect:
Obviously it is a blow to a team here is a rider withdraws from the race, but it is possible for them to make a useful contribution without finishing via stage or yellow jersey points. Cavendish was a lot cheaper than the fairly frequently picked Alaphilippe and Girmay, and despite not finishing he has supplied his team with 75 points, more than the 38 and 58 of the other two: his 22.8% return is better than 14 teams are managing at the moment.
This shows the net loss due to riders who have not finished (so Cavendish contributes 329 (his cost) - 75 (his points)= 254 in this reckoning.

Team	DNFs	net DNF loss	Position in main game
Red_Lobster	4	1860	39
Northerner	2	1756	37
Tonton	3	1583	42
DJSprtsch	3	1457	19
Del1962	3	1406	28
Armchair_Cyclist	2	1329	26
Kazistuta	2	1329	32
Madrazo	2	1329	23
Marek	2	1329	40
Queen_Stagiare	2	1287	16
BluesInTheBottle	3	1172	31
Devils_Elbow	2	1152	13
RedheadDane	2	1083	43
Laarsland	2	883	29
18_Valve	2	860	15
PostmanHat	2	860	3
Ricco	2	860	30
Titan31	2	860	7
Vladimir	2	860	22
Comodoro	2	734	38
Lecko	1	723	36
Riverside	1	723	18
Anderis	1	606	12
BicycleBoy	1	606	27
Bminchow	1	606	20
Leadbelly	1	606	24
Rote_Laterne	1	606	4
Yellow_Knight	1	606	34
Scrooll07	2	382	6
Search	2	382	17
Evans_is_the_Best	2	274	5
Berlus	1	254	8
DJW	1	254	10
Triley36	1	254	2
JumboVismaFan	1	184	41
AmisVelo	1	128	1
Mellow_Velo	1	20	9
ArchieBoy	0	0	14
Peixotini	0	0	11
Rufs	0	0	25
Salvarani	0	0	33
SamuCuenca	0	0	35
ZigZagWanderer	0	0	21
Collective_Wisdom	2	860
Pog_vs_the_World	1	20

Still having a full team is no guarantee of success, and 4 teams are holding a top ten place despite two dropouts: Postman Hat has taken the popular Cavendish/Carapaz double whammy, and still is on the podium.

Green points
I like it when there are different teams high in the minor classification: the riders who have, or could have, boosted your scores there are:

	stage points	teams
PHILIPSEN Jasper	370	0
POGACAR Tadej	239	0
VAN AERT Wout	154	0
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	127	5
BAUHAUS Phil	125	7
HINDLEY Jai	117	33
YATES Adam	108	0
WOODS Michael	105	1
PEDERSEN Mads	99	0
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	98	3
GROENEWEGEN Dylan	93	0
LAFAY Victor	90	0
BURGAUDEAU Mathieu	87	0
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	86	8
(EWAN Caleb)	85	0
KWIATKOWSKI Michal	83	4
POELS Wout	80	2
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Ion	80	1
(CAVENDISH Mark)	75	15
COQUARD Bryan	64	0
JORGENSON Matteo	60	1
YATES Simon	57	14
CICCONE Giulio	50	5
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	50	25
LATOUR Pierre	50	1
ZIMMERMANN Georg	50	0
VAN GILS Maxim	50	0

The spreadsheet is here if you want to work out the combination of results that might turn the game in your favour.

postmanhat · Jul 17, 2023

The grind of Vingo's yellow jersey points is working against me. Could also do with Kuss being so distracted by the third week scenery, he forgets he's now a GC rider.

RedheadDane · Jul 18, 2023

Armchair cyclist said:
The spreadsheet is here if you want to work out the combination of results that might turn the game in your favour.

Yeah, I don't think anything short of a miracle can help me.

Devil's Elbow · Jul 18, 2023

Something tells me a Vingegaard team is winning this one...

EvansIsTheBest · Jul 18, 2023

Devil's Elbow said:
Something tells me a Vingegaard team is winning this one...

Between him, Roglic and Van der Poel I've had great luck with my top picks in the shorter games this year. Unfortunately, I could have borrowed Redhead Dane's random generator and done a better job of filling out my rosters probably.

Armchair cyclist · Jul 18, 2023

Stage 16 (ITT)
Wow

Green points

VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	80	5
POGACAR Tadej	50	0
VAN AERT Wout	35	0
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	25	3
YATES Simon	15	14
CAVAGNA Rémi	10	0
YATES Adam	5	0
SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias	3	1
PEDERSEN Mads	2	0
GAUDU David	1	0

Nobody has more than one of the top ten in their team, so that's 80 for both Velos (Amis and Mellow), Evans, Scrool and TRiley; 35 for Anderis, DJSprtsch and Samu, 15 for the 14 Yates teams, and 3 for Salvarani.

Standings
I usually put in the whole standings about once a week, and didn't in the rest day posting. So here it is, that we might all see where we are in the minor classification. Most of the Vingegaard teams are clustered just outside the top ten.

1	18_Valve	508	0
2	Search	468	0
3	Queen_Stagiare	448	0
4	PostmanHat	440	0
5	Peixotini	435	1
6	ZigZagWanderer	423	-1
7	Anderis	406	2
8	DJW	399	0
9	Titan31	398	-2
10	DJSprtsch	384	0
11	AmisVelo	375	6
12	Evans_is_the_Best	367	9
13	Scrooll07	364	9
14	Rote_Laterne	360	-2
15	Triley36	350	10
16	Red_Lobster	346	-5
17	Riverside	334	-4
18	Vladimir	320	-3
19	Berlus	317	-5
20	BicycleBoy	308	-2
21	Kazistuta	303	-5
22	Madrazo	299	0
23	Devils_Elbow	293	-5
24	Mellow_Velo	292	13
24	Ricco	292	-4
26	Bminchow	275	2
27	Yellow_Knight	271	-3
28	Tonton	270	-3
29	ArchieBoy	262	-2
30	Leadbelly	258	-1
31	Armchair_Cyclist	252	-1
32	Del1962	239	2
33	Marek	233	-2
33	Northerner	233	-2
35	Lecko	232	-2
36	BluesInTheBottle	229	0
37	Laarsland	223	-2
38	SamuCuenca	218	1
39	Rufs	200	1
40	JumboVismaFan	199	-2
41	Comodoro	185	-1
42	Salvarani	176	0
43	RedheadDane	45	0
	Collective_Wisdom	332
	Pog_vs_the_World	289

Yellow points

There were not huge changes in GC position today (when many expected the most important one to swap), and nobody had bought Adam Yates who was the main one to gain. The time trial was more about whether those GC placings are likely to change, and the lead looks a lot less likely to do so.

VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	105	5
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	25	3
GALL Felix	20	3
YATES Simon	15	14
MADOUAS Valentin	5	1
SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias	5	1

JORGENSON Matteo	-23	1
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	-60	8

Zigzag loses Jorgenson, but whether the drop in position for Rodriguez is short term or not could be significant.

1	Scrooll07	109
2	Evans_is_the_Best	105
3	Mellow_Velo	104
4	AmisVelo	103
4	Triley36	103
6	Anderis	29
7	SamuCuenca	28
8	DJSprtsch	25
9	Laarsland	22
10	18_Valve	19
10	BicycleBoy	19
10	BluesInTheBottle	19
13	Peixotini	18
14	Armchair_Cyclist	17
14	Vladimir	17
16	Bminchow	16
17	Madrazo	15
18	Riverside	14
19	DJW	13
20	Salvarani	7
21	Kazistuta	6
21	Yellow_Knight	6
23	JumboVismaFan	5
23	RedheadDane	5
25	Marek	4
25	Red_Lobster	4
27	Lecko	3
28	Comodoro	2
28	Northerner	2
30	Tonton	1
31	Ricco	-3
32	Queen_Stagiare	-4
32	Search	-4
34	Leadbelly	-6
35	ZigZagWanderer	-20
36	PostmanHat	-27
37	ArchieBoy	-38
38	Del1962	-42
39	Rote_Laterne	-45
39	Rufs	-45
41	Berlus	-54
42	Devils_Elbow	-60
43	Titan31	-61
	Collective_Wisdom	11
	Pog_vs_the_World	50

Standings
Postman Hat holding on resolutely to his podium place, as the only none VingeTeam in the top 5

1	AmisVelo	1685	0
2	Triley36	1638	0
3	PostmanHat	1495	0
4	Evans_is_the_Best	1384	1
5	Scrooll07	1372	1
6	Rote_Laterne	1357	-2
7	Mellow_Velo	1301	2
8	Berlus	1202	0
9	Titan31	1197	-2
10	DJW	1195	0
11	Anderis	1181	1
12	Peixotini	1175	-1
13	18_Valve	1130	2
14	ArchieBoy	1106	0
15	Devils_Elbow	1090	-2
16	Queen_Stagiare	1077	0
17	Search	1056	0
18	Riverside	1033	0
19	DJSprtsch	1020	0
20	Bminchow	1005	0
21	Vladimir	981	1
22	Madrazo	976	1
23	ZigZagWanderer	963	-2
24	Armchair_Cyclist	952	2
25	BicycleBoy	950	2
26	Leadbelly	946	-2
27	Laarsland	934	2
28	Rufs	906	-3
29	BluesInTheBottle	893	2
30	Ricco	891	0
31	Del1962	876	-3
32	Kazistuta	811	0
33	Salvarani	797	0
34	SamuCuenca	786	1
35	Yellow_Knight	780	-1
36	Lecko	752	0
37	Northerner	747	0
38	Comodoro	746	0
39	Red_Lobster	742	0
40	Marek	736	0
41	JumboVismaFan	735	0
42	Tonton	475	0
43	RedheadDane	311	0
	Collective_Wisdom	941
	Pog_vs_the_World	899

Armchair cyclist · Jul 18, 2023

There are 47 points between Amis Velo and TRiley36, and then a 250 drop to the next Vingegaard team.
Those two share Vingegaard (obviously), Johannessen, Bernal (no surprise, both are on well over half the teams), Gogl and Lopez. They also each have one rider who is already DNF (Cras and Cavendish respectively).

So if they remain the top two (Postman Hat might still hope that S Yates, Rodriguez and Gall might comprise the break tomorrow and Saturday), the battle is essentially Hindley and Petit (for Amis V) versus Kuss and Tejada (for TRiley).

That large, neutralisation-causing crash on Sunday could yet take its toll on Amis Velo's selection: Petit's backside seems able to holding together, but a DNF wouldn't be a surprise, and Hindley seems to be still affected by his injuries there.
Kuss and Hindley are in neighbouring positions on GC, and although the gap is nearly 2 minutes, it is not difficult to envisage that sort of a swing as Kuss ushers Vingegaard up the Col de Loze tomorrow: that could be a 60 point shift in favour of TRiley.

I have been aware of Tejada throughout, as it is me that prevents him being a unique pick for TRiley (Kuss is one), and his current anonymous lower 20s placing on GC looks likely to be his only contribution to this battle: he needs 10 minutes to move up a place, and can afford to lose 5 before he drops more than one spot.

I have frequently demonstrated my inaccuracy in predictions here, but I think the likelihood is that TRiley will get enough out of Kuss to gain the victory.

Armchair cyclist · Jul 20, 2023

Stage 17
If there was any doubt, it's gone now.

Green points

GALL Felix	80	3
YATES Simon	50	14
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	35	3
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	25	5
GAUDU David	15	0
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	10	25
HARPER Chris	5	0
MAJKA Rafal	3	0
YATES Adam	2	0
KELDERMAN Wilco	1	6

1	PostmanHat	140	Gall, Yates, Johannessen
2	ArchieBoy	91	Gall, Johannessen, Kelderman
3	Laarsland	90	Gall, Johannessen
4	Bminchow	61	Yates, Johannessen, Kelderman
5	DJW	60	Yates, Johannessen
5	Madrazo	60
5	Peixotini	60
5	Riverside	60
5	Rote_Laterne	60
5	Vladimir	60
11	18_Valve	50
11	Armchair_Cyclist	50
11	BicycleBoy	50
11	BluesInTheBottle	50
11	Del1962	50
11	Rufs	50
17	Anderis	45
18	AmisVelo	35
18	DJSprtsch	35
18	Evans_is_the_Best	35
18	Mellow_Velo	35
18	SamuCuenca	35
18	Triley36	35
24	Scrooll07	25
25	Leadbelly	11
25	Ricco	11
27	Comodoro	10
27	Devils_Elbow	10
27	Marek	10
27	Northerner	10
27	Queen_Stagiare	10
27	Search	10
27	Titan31	10
27	ZigZagWanderer	10
35	Berlus	1
35	Salvarani	1
37	The Rest	0

Standings
The first change at the top here for quite a while, with Postman Hat getting a reward for his 1-2.

1	PostmanHat	580	3
2	18_Valve	558	-1
3	Peixotini	495	2
4	Search	478	-2
5	DJW	459	3
6	Queen_Stagiare	458	-3
7	Anderis	451	0
8	ZigZagWanderer	433	-2
9	Rote_Laterne	420	5
10	DJSprtsch	419	0

Yellow points

GALL Felix	160	3
YATES Simon	145	14
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello	68	3
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	50	5
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	28	25
CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan	26	1
HAIG Jack	10	3
PINOT Thibaut	10	1

IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka	-10	1
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso	-12	2
BAUHAUS Phil	-20	7
LANDA MEANA Mikel	-22	4
BUCHMANN Emanuel	-23	2
HINDLEY Jai	-63	33
KUSS Sepp	-80	1

Almost the dream breakaway for Postman Hat that I mentioned yesterday.

1	PostmanHat	270
2	ArchieBoy	196
3	Del1962	137
4	Rufs	131
5	Bminchow	109
6	DJW	102
6	Madrazo	102
6	Rote_Laterne	102
9	Riverside	101
9	Vladimir	101
11	Laarsland	97
12	BicycleBoy	88
13	Mellow_Velo	87
14	BluesInTheBottle	84
15	Peixotini	83
16	Evans_is_the_Best	78
17	18_Valve	68
18	Armchair_Cyclist	62
19	Scrooll07	56
20	SamuCuenca	52
21	Anderis	31
22	AmisVelo	7
23	DJSprtsch	1
24	Tonton	-9
25	Triley36	-22
26	RedheadDane	-24
27	Northerner	-33
28	Marek	-36
29	Leadbelly	-41
29	Search	-41
31	Devils_Elbow	-43
32	Titan31	-44
33	JumboVismaFan	-56
34	Yellow_Knight	-57
35	Ricco	-60
36	ZigZagWanderer	-62
37	Berlus	-63
37	Comodoro	-63
39	Salvarani	-69
40	Lecko	-77
41	Red_Lobster	-81
42	Queen_Stagiare	-86
43	Kazistuta	-89
	Collective_Wisdom	31
	Pog_vs_the_World	-10

Standings
The 'perfect' break that I mentioned for PH would also have included Rodriguez, but with Amis Velo and TRiley being adversely affected by drops in GC for Hindley and Kuss respectively, improvement from him wasn't necessary for Postman Hat to have a pretty much perfect day, taking the top daily differential and the lead in both classifications.

1	PostmanHat	1765	2
2	AmisVelo	1692	-1
3	Triley36	1616	-1
4	Evans_is_the_Best	1462	0
5	Rote_Laterne	1459	1
6	Scrooll07	1428	-1
7	Mellow_Velo	1388	0
8	ArchieBoy	1302	6
9	DJW	1297	1
10	Peixotini	1258	2
11	Anderis	1212	0
12	18_Valve	1198	1
13	Titan31	1153	-4
14	Berlus	1139	-6
15	Riverside	1134	3
16	Bminchow	1114	4
17	Vladimir	1082	4
18	Madrazo	1078	4
19	Devils_Elbow	1047	-4
20	BicycleBoy	1038	5
21	Rufs	1037	7
22	Laarsland	1031	5
23	DJSprtsch	1021	-4
24	Search	1015	-7
25	Armchair_Cyclist	1014	-1
26	Del1962	1013	5
27	Queen_Stagiare	991	-11
28	BluesInTheBottle	977	1
29	Leadbelly	905	-3
30	ZigZagWanderer	901	-7
31	SamuCuenca	838	3
32	Ricco	831	-2
33	Salvarani	728	0
34	Yellow_Knight	723	1
35	Kazistuta	722	-3
36	Northerner	714	1
37	Marek	700	3
38	Comodoro	683	0
39	JumboVismaFan	679	2
40	Lecko	675	-4
41	Red_Lobster	661	-2
42	Tonton	466	0
43	RedheadDane	287	0
	Collective_Wisdom	972
	Pog_vs_the_World	889

Tomorrow looks like a sprinters' stage, but the main rider that featured in teams here on such stages had been Bauhaus. Maybe Girmay will do something to justify the frequentpicks of him, but scores could be scant...

Armchair cyclist · Jul 20, 2023

While I have your attention in the thread for this game, could I ask if anyone might be able to help in the preparation for the next one?

La Vuelta starts on 26th August, and I will be away from the 9th to the 23rd, with at best limited opportunity to spend time on the selection sheet and the early entries. In particular, I will have very little opportunity 12th to 19th August to do anything (I'll be riding Ireland, Southernmost point to Northernmost, Mizen to Malin, as a 60th birthday challenge).

What I am hoping is that somebody could post some plugs for the game in appropriate threads without making too much of a nuisance, take on the selection spreadsheet (or take it over, I'll be able to make some sort of start to it) which essentially means watching PCS for startlist changes, notify when the relevant prices are available (probably Mon 21st) and copy that into the spreadsheet, and maybe check the early entries for budget validity and that the riders are competing.

It'll all be very hurried otherwise if I have to wait until I am home. Excel skills required are minimal (and if you are good at Excel, you'll probably soon find something much more efficient than my efforts).

Thanks

RedheadDane · Jul 20, 2023

I can do the plugs, but I think we can all agree that I probably shouldn't get too involved in anything involving math, or spreadsheets, or the like.

Armchair cyclist · Jul 20, 2023

Stage 18
Made it, just (in both senses)

Green points

It's happened again: not a single selected rider in the top ten (or, indeed, the top 13)

Yellow points
There are the inevitable 20 points for Vingegaard, and some riders moving up to fill space vacated by Van Aert in various categories, and almost nothing else.

VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas	20	5
YATES Simon	5	14
CICCONE Giulio	4	5
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka	4	1
JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	4	25
KWIATKOWSKI Michal	4	4

HAMILTON Chris	-1	1
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley	-2	28

Everyone is in the black today, but nobody by much.

Mellow_Velo	26
Evans_is_the_Best	24
Scrooll07	24
AmisVelo	23
Triley36	22
18_Valve	12
BicycleBoy	12
DJW	12
Vladimir	12
ArchieBoy	10
Bminchow	10
Peixotini	10
PostmanHat	10

Standings
The gap from highest to lowest net scorer on the day was only 24, so no surprise that there are very few positional changes.

1	PostmanHat	1775	0
2	AmisVelo	1715	0
3	Triley36	1638	0
4	Evans_is_the_Best	1486	0
5	Rote_Laterne	1467	0
6	Scrooll07	1452	0
7	Mellow_Velo	1414	0
8	ArchieBoy	1312	0
9	DJW	1309	0
10	Peixotini	1268	0
11	Anderis	1219	0
12	18_Valve	1210	0
13	Titan31	1156	0
14	Riverside	1142	1
15	Berlus	1140	-1
16	Bminchow	1124	0
17	Vladimir	1094	0
18	Madrazo	1086	0
19	BicycleBoy	1050	1
19	Devils_Elbow	1050	0
21	Rufs	1044	0
22	Laarsland	1036	0
23	DJSprtsch	1024	0
23	Search	1024	1
25	Armchair_Cyclist	1018	0
26	Del1962	1017	0
27	Queen_Stagiare	998	0
28	BluesInTheBottle	983	0
29	Leadbelly	914	0
30	ZigZagWanderer	906	0
31	SamuCuenca	843	0
32	Ricco	834	0
33	Yellow_Knight	731	1
34	Salvarani	729	-1
35	Kazistuta	724	0
36	Northerner	719	0
37	Marek	709	0
38	Comodoro	688	0
39	JumboVismaFan	684	0
40	Lecko	676	0
41	Red_Lobster	664	0
42	Tonton	467	0
43	RedheadDane	290	0
	Collective_Wisdom	979
	Pog_vs_the_World	899

Tomorrow should see a break hold on by considerably more than 15 metres. We all have riders in our teams selected for breakaway potential (or at least because they are too cheap to have GC or main field sprint potential), but which of them will feature tomorrow.

EvansIsTheBest · Jul 20, 2023

RedheadDane said:
I can do the plugs, but I think we can all agree that I probably shouldn't get too involved in anything involving math, or spreadsheets, or the like.

And I'm happy to take care of the spreadsheet and early entries.

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