Vuelta a España 2023 Vuelta a España route rumours

[Andy schleck]

Last year it was Roglic, Evenepoel, Hindley, Almeida, Ayuso, Mas, Carapaz, O'Connor, Landa, Carthy, MAL, Arensman, Uran, Kelderman...

Just depends on how you want to look at it. The only real difference is now Uytdebroeks Vingegaard is also there, but we don't know how his form will be.

The field of this year's vuelta is good, but do you looked to the field in classica san sebastian? It was so much better.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Ok, so you still don't understand. Vingegaard and Thomas are also just names. Until they meet the expectations and rise to their potential. Carapaz, Landa, Hindley... didn't reach their potential nor met expectations. Unlike what you seem to believe, you do not have a crystal ball and can not predict Thomas and Vingegaard will. Vingegaard just went balls out in the Tour, Thomas is an old geezer who also already rode the Giro. So until the moment they show they are actually up to standard over 3 weeks of Vuelta, they are also just names.

Roglic needed boni seconds to beat Carapaz in 2020. Carapaz beat Roglic a year earlier in the Giro. Hindley won the Giro and managed podium before. So those "just names" are among the best GC riders of the past years. But it is no guarantee that they will deliver. Neither is it for Thomas or Vingegaard considering circumstances.

I'll leave it at that.

I don't think Thomas will be relevant on this route in his 2nd GT. I already said that earlier - odds are he will try, but ultimately fail at some point, I think. But hey, who knows, that's not the point anyway.

We disagree. Only time will tell.

Do you still think Remco has a 50% chance of winning the race, as you stated earlier btw?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The field of this year's vuelta is good, but do you looked to the field in classica san sebastian? It was so much better.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcYppAs6ZdI

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't think Thomas will be relevant on this route in his 2nd GT. I already said that earlier - odds are he will try, but ultimately fail at some point, I think. But hey, who knows, that's not the point anyway.

We disagree. Only time will tell.

I'm not sure we really disagree, it's just that Vingegaard is present. And while i agree that makes a big difference in top level quality assuming he is able to bring his A-game, there is also a realistic chance he will not. As in hindsight you can dismiss Carapaz, Hindley, Yates, Landa... in last year's edition, because they were irrelevant, you forget that if they had brought their A-game, you would talk differently about last year's startlist. So either you compare startlists before the race, or you compare them after the race. But it's BS to take the startlist of last year, dismiss all those who failed/crashed/covid'ed and compare it to this year's startlist ahead of the race. But hey, at least i know that when Ayuso, Roglic, Vingegaard and Thomas all crash out on top of each other, that i can say Evenepoel won the Vuelta against the toughest competition in the best field!

Do you still think Remco has a 50% chance of winning the race, as you stated earlier btw?

No, of course not. I think 49, maybe 49.5%.

It's amazing how hung up you are on that comment. I've seen you mention it more than once in an attempt to make fun of it/me, and i have you on ignore so i can only imagine how often you actually mentioned it. I could just as well have said 99%, as a hyperbole. Funny you didn't understand that it meant nothing but "he is one of the two big favourites/the biggest favourite" and actually felt the need to look at it from a mathematical perspective, lol. At the time i made it, it was assumed but not confirmed Roglic would ride and Ayuso was having a much worse season than initially expected. The only miscalculation i made, was that i forgot he was aiming for the WCC TT title, and i can't imagine him doing so weighing 60kg. But do i think he would have won in optimal shape/weight vs Roglic and Aysuo? Let's say about 50% lol.

 

[Red Rick]

Let's flame logic for the 50% and completely ignore I've said a similar number in the past

Spoiler

Actually, don't

 

[bNator]

I think the big differences in the field this year are (obviously) Vingegaard, optimum (vs sub-optimum) Roglic and (possibly) Thomas.

If Vingegaard and Thomas turn out to be in-form (i have no doubts about Roglic), this will be a very competitive Vuelta.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think the big differences in the field this year are (obviously) Vingegaard, optimum (vs sub-optimum) Roglic and (possibly) Thomas.

If Vingegaard and Thomas turn out to be in-form (i have no doubts about Roglic), this will be a very competitive Vuelta.

If Vingegaard and Thomas turn out to be in form, it could be more competitive than the Tour was, because Pogacar did not have the best preparation.

Last year had also a great startlist, with plenty of GC-winners at the start (Yates, Roglic, Hindley, Carapaz). But in the end it was a battle between two guys who had never won one.

 

[Red Rick]

If Vingegaard and Thomas turn out to be in form, it could be more competitive than the Tour was, because Pogacar did not have the best preparation.

Last year had also a great startlist, with plenty of GC-winners at the start (Yates, Roglic, Hindley, Carapaz). But in the end it was a battle between two guys who had never won one.

Vingegaard vs Pogacar was close for 2 weeks. If Vingegaard is the same form as in the Tour, I don't think it's gonna be close for 2 weeks with anyone. Maybe he then fades and people have to pull crazy moves to pull minutes back. And if he has that form, I don't think Jumbo are not gonna waste it by pulling the Roglic card first.

I do think it's very unlikely he'll have the same form though.

Thomas in Giro form would be good. Almeida should also be better than last year, and they could be the gatekeepers to the top 5.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Vingegaard vs Pogacar was close for 2 weeks. If Vingegaard is the same form as in the Tour, I don't think it's gonna be close for 2 weeks with anyone. Maybe he then fades and people have to pull crazy moves to pull minutes back. And if he has that form, I don't think Jumbo are not gonna waste it by pulling the Roglic card first.

I do think it's very unlikely he'll have the same form though.

Thomas in Giro form would be good. Almeida should also be better than last year, and they could be the gatekeepers to the top 5.

After stage 13 in the Tour, Hindley was still only 2m50s down to Vingegaard. People may call me crazy, but i think if Evenepoel, Ayuso and Roglic are in top form, they should be able to outperform Hindley by some margin, and would have been closer to Vingegaard and Pogacar up to that point. The thing is, that we still have to see in what shape they will start, it's not just Vingegaard. Evenepoel is targeting the WCC and that has other implications. Roglic has already done the Giro (as did Thomas). Ayuso has not had a trouble free year. Or we could also see a very close battle with nobody at their very best, lol.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Vingegaard vs Pogacar was close for 2 weeks. If Vingegaard is the same form as in the Tour, I don't think it's gonna be close for 2 weeks with anyone. Maybe he then fades and people have to pull crazy moves to pull minutes back.

A fading Vingegaard with a decimated Jumbo squad (say Roglic has crashed out and some other of their doms are exausted/sick) entering stage 20 with a 3-4 minute lead and Evenepoel launches at Escondida with 90 km to go, can we ask for more?

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic has crashed out

can we ask for more?

This absolute psycho

 

[bNator]

A fading Vingegaard with a decimated Jumbo squad (say Roglic has crashed out and some other of their doms are exausted/sick) entering stage 20 with a 3-4 minute lead and Evenepoel launches at Escondida with 90 km to go, can we ask for more?

Well maybe if all the other cyclists also crashed out or got sick and then Remco wins by default? Wouldn't that be a dream scenario?

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

This absolute psycho

thanks for taking things out of context.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Well maybe if all the other cyclists also crashed out or got sick and then Remco wins by default? Wouldn't that be a dream scenario?

The sad thing is that you will take my post where I'm clumsy with the wording (of course didn't mean I hope Roglic crash out, I was just trying to describe a scenario that would probably give an exciting fight for the overall win on the hilly stage 20 and no Roglic is somewhat a very important factor in "a decimated Jumbo team") as a "Remco fanboys are completely crazy, they even want other riders to crash just so Remco can win".

I much rather want a funny race where Evenepoel lose than a boring race where he wins without suspension. It was a shame when Pogacar crashed out of Liege and we didn't get to see them fight it out for the win. It was a shame last year in the Vuelta when Roglic crashed out and we didn't get to see them fight it out in the final stages.

(Also, despite my username I'm more likely to hope for Pogacar, Alaphilippe or a Norwegian rider to win if it's a head to head fight between them and Evenepoel for the win in a race, so no reason to use my clumsy wording against the proper Remco fans)

 

[bNator]

The sad thing is that you will take my post where I'm clumsy with the wording (of course didn't mean I hope Roglic crash out, I was just trying to describe a scenario that would probably give an exciting fight for the overall win on the hilly stage 20 and no Roglic is somewhat a very important factor in "a decimated Jumbo team") as a "Remco fanboys are completely crazy, they even want other riders to crash just so Remco can win".

I much rather want a funny race where Evenepoel lose than a boring race where he wins without suspension. It was a shame when Pogacar crashed out of Liege and we didn't get to see them fight it out for the win. It was a shame last year in the Vuelta when Roglic crashed out and we didn't get to see them fight it out in the final stages.

I'm certainly glad that's your true position. From your post though, it didn't look that way. If you don't want us to think you would like Roglic to crash and TJV riders to get sick I suggest you don't write that kind of posts anymore... Nothing in your post suggested you were joking.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I'm certainly glad that's your true position. From your post though, it didn't look that way. If you don't want us to think you would like Roglic to crash and TJV riders to get sick I suggest you don't write that kind of posts anymore... Nothing in your post suggested you were joking.

I feel you are misunderstanding the elements of the post and getting hung up in a sentence that was not what the post was meant to be about.

However, I don't understand why it either has to be that my position is that I want to see Roglic crash or the entire post was a joke.

I think the scenario of a weakened Jumbo team with a fading Vingegaard in the lead would give us a very interesting last week of the Vuelta. I can understand that there is no need to specify "Roglic crashing" and "riders getting sick". It was just examples, which I agree I didn't need to put in there.

A superb Vingegaard in the leaders jersey and a full strength Jumbo team would be a not very interesting race. I don't hope that happen. I also don't hope Evenepoel are the strongest on every stage and win with 5 minutes either. A fading Evenepoel in red with a weak team would also be very interesting, or a fading Roglic in red with a weak team for that sake. That's another scenario I would've liked to watch.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm certainly glad that's your true position. From your post though, it didn't look that way. If you don't want us to think you would like Roglic to crash and TJV riders to get sick I suggest you don't write that kind of posts anymore... Nothing in your post suggested you were joking.

Well, it is the fate of the Evenepoel fan. People not knowing when they are joking because making a claim about what else he might be capable of seems outrageous apparently. When i said, in an age when Bernal was still relevant, that Evenepoel was more likely to drop Bernal on a false flat, than on a climb. People thought i was joking. When i said -only a year ago (lol)- Evenepoel was a more naturally gifted time trialist than Küng, people thought i was joking.

Sometimes things can be funny, without them being a joke. Sometimes jokes can not be funny. Sometimes people don't know whether something is a joke or not, nor whether it is funny regardless of it being a joke or not. In this case, i think the post was perfectly clear that the poster was just trying to describe a crazy scenario, where Evenepoel was in a losing position, but still with a chance to turn the tables as the biggest rival team had also endured hardship. I think it's important to note the word "say" in his proposition, meaning "let's assume that". It is perfectly clear to me, that he does not wish harm to anyone, but was simply trying come up with a situation what would lead to a fantastic apotheose (Evenepoel beating the snot out of his rivals in the eleventh hour).

 

[bNator]

ok, ok... I see your points, but you should hear mine as well. The combination of Roglic crashing being in any way a positive scenario is what probably triggers any self-respecting Roglic fan. I'm sure you guys wouldn't find it funny if I speculated about a dream-come-true scenario, part of which would be Remco getting covid again - even if only to establish a basis for an exciting race scenario where Roglic wins. It just sounds ugly...

 

[Scarponi]

I'm certainly glad that's your true position. From your post though, it didn't look that way. If you don't want us to think you would like Roglic to crash and TJV riders to get sick I suggest you don't write that kind of posts anymore... Nothing in your post suggested you were joking.

How did you even take it as anything but a scenario where Vinge has no support (illness , crashes , out of form whatever) and has to chase everything down himself on the low peak of his season. That’s how I read it but anyway

 

[OlavEH]

Last year it was Roglic, Evenepoel, Hindley, Almeida, Ayuso, Mas, Carapaz, O'Connor, Landa, Carthy, MAL, Arensman, Uran, Kelderman...

Just depends on how you want to look at it. The only real difference is now Uytdebroeks Vingegaard is also there, but we don't know how his form will be.

IMO this is about the presumed quality of the 5-6-7 top riders, not how many possible top 10 candidates that are on the start list.

Last year there was no Vingeaard and we didn't know how strong Ayuso was. Therefore Vinge, Remco, Roglic, Mas, Ayuso and Thomas this year are a least one level above Roglic, Remco, Mas, Hindley and Carapaz last year. It is by far a certainty, but I definitely think the start list looks more competitive now.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

IMO this is about the presumed quality of the 5-6-7 top riders, not how many possible top 10 candidates that are on the start list.

Last year there was no Vingeaard and we didn't know how strong Ayuso was. Therefore Vinge, Remco, Roglic, Mas, Ayuso and Thomas this year is a least one level above Roglic, Remco, Mas, Hindley and Carapaz last year. It is by far a certainty, but I definitely think the start list looks more competitive now.

It gets repetitive. You are comparing this year's startlist based on how good/relevant you presume they will be. Not on how good/relevant they will be. You are excluding names from last year, because they turned out not to be good/relevant, while they could have been assumed to be before the race as well. Yates, MA Lopez, Landa... and refuse to include those that weren't expected, but did turn out to be good/relevant like Ayuso and Rodriguez.

I agree that the startlist looks more competitive, but only due to Vingegaard. However, we need to see if he is indeed good/relevant, which is not a given considering he comes from the Tour.

 

[OlavEH]

It gets repetitive. You are comparing this year's startlist based on how good/relevant you presume they will be. Not on how good/relevant they will be.

Of course. In advance that is the only thing that is possible to do. I can only repeat the last sentence from my previous post: "It is by far a certainty, but I definitely think the start list looks more competitive now."

And no, I excluded MAL, Yates and Landa because in advance last year I wouldn't considered them to have the same max level and/or stability as the 6 I listed for this year.

 

[Netserk]

It gets repetitive. You are comparing this year's startlist based on how good/relevant you presume they will be. Not on how good/relevant they will be. You are excluding names from last year, because they turned out not to be good/relevant, while they could have been assumed to be before the race as well. Yates, MA Lopez, Landa... and refuse to include those that weren't expected, but did turn out to be good/relevant like Ayuso and Rodriguez.

I agree that the startlist looks more competitive, but only due to Vingegaard. However, we need to see if he is indeed good/relevant, which is not a given considering he comes from the Tour.

Enjoy your vacation!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Enjoy your vacation!

At first, I thought Logic had planned a vacation to Spain like his boy Remco usually does. Then, I thought you put him on ignore, and then I scrolled up and saw he got banned!

What for?

 

[Andy schleck]

Enjoy your vacation!

@Ilmaestro99 logic goes on vacations again. Probably to san sebastian.