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Vuelta a España 2023 Vuelta a España route rumours

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That's very unlikely to happen. It's a protected area. I've read fans reporting on local officials saying that if they fix the road they would not let motor vehicles in, and would never let the race through it after what they saw following the last visit in 2007. In addition to that, the road crosses a regional border twice: first at Abantos and then at Collado de la Mina.
That's a shame. Also, what happened in 2007?
 
Tom Dumoulin 2017 Giro d'Italia
Ryder Hesjedal 2012 Giro d'Italia
Tao Geoghegan Hart 2020 Giro d'Italia
Alberto Contador 2008 Giro d'Italia
Denis Menchov 2009 Giro d'Italia

Arguably Nibali at the 2010 Vuelta a Espana and even Fabio Aru at the 2015 Vuelta a Espana. But Rodriguez simply produced 2 horrible TT's back then.

Leipheimer nearly stole the 2008 Vuelta a Espana in the TT's though.
Arguably Roglic 2020 against Carapaz in hindsight.

Evans at the 2011 Tour de France & Wiggins at the 2012 Tour de France of course
 
Tom Dumoulin 2017 Giro d'Italia
Ryder Hesjedal 2012 Giro d'Italia
Tao Geoghegan Hart 2020 Giro d'Italia
Alberto Contador 2008 Giro d'Italia
Denis Menchov 2009 Giro d'Italia

Arguably Nibali at the 2010 Vuelta a Espana and even Fabio Aru at the 2015 Vuelta a Espana. But Rodriguez simply produced 2 horrible TT's back then.

Leipheimer nearly stole the 2008 Vuelta a Espana in the TT's though.
Arguably Roglic 2020 against Carapaz in hindsight.

Evans at the 2011 Tour de France & Wiggins at the 2012 Tour de France of course
Most of these were absolutely not skewed to the time trialist but the best TTer just won because the climbers weren't better climbers by a big enough margin.
 
Tom Dumoulin 2017 Giro d'Italia
Ryder Hesjedal 2012 Giro d'Italia
Tao Geoghegan Hart 2020 Giro d'Italia
Alberto Contador 2008 Giro d'Italia
Denis Menchov 2009 Giro d'Italia

Arguably Nibali at the 2010 Vuelta a Espana and even Fabio Aru at the 2015 Vuelta a Espana. But Rodriguez simply produced 2 horrible TT's back then.

Leipheimer nearly stole the 2008 Vuelta a Espana in the TT's though.
Arguably Roglic 2020 against Carapaz in hindsight.

Evans at the 2011 Tour de France & Wiggins at the 2012 Tour de France of course
Roglic won the Vuelta on boniseconds, not in the TT. That's far worse.
Yes, Hart, timetrialer extraordinaire. And Hesjedahl who made Cancellara and Martin tremble in their boots whenever he would do a TT when they were also participating.

Yeah, no.
 
I still insist that Dumoulin wouldn't have even podiumed that Giro if they had used one of the harder sides of Grappa on stage 20.
No doubt. But he dropped already on the weak side of Grappa and nobody thought about capitalizing. Seriously if Quintana and Nibali were simply better uphill for 3 weeks they would have cleaned Dumoulin that Giro. But they were only better on like 2 days or 3 days.
 
Tom Dumoulin 2017 Giro d'Italia
Ryder Hesjedal 2012 Giro d'Italia
Tao Geoghegan Hart 2020 Giro d'Italia
Alberto Contador 2008 Giro d'Italia
Denis Menchov 2009 Giro d'Italia

Arguably Nibali at the 2010 Vuelta a Espana and even Fabio Aru at the 2015 Vuelta a Espana. But Rodriguez simply produced 2 horrible TT's back then.

Leipheimer nearly stole the 2008 Vuelta a Espana in the TT's though.
Arguably Roglic 2020 against Carapaz in hindsight.

Evans at the 2011 Tour de France & Wiggins at the 2012 Tour de France of course
‘In the past 10 years’. Up until 2012, agree there were plenty of GTs weighted, sometimes heavily, towards the time trialists.

Dumoulin 2017 - would argue that that was a fairly balanced GT, and even then Dumoulin only needed the amount of TT there was because of him taking a **** at the bottom of the Umbrail. Without that, he likely would have been in pink going into the final TT with only 40k of TT being raced at that point in a race that had quite a lot of climbing. And he would have lost handsomely had Nibali or Quintana - the only two riders in that GC battle who also ever finished higher than third in a GT - been anywhere near their best.
TGH 2020 - GC was tied with less than 50k of TT done in what was probably the hardest Giro post-Zomegnan, also the only time Hindley dropped TGH on a climb was on stage 3 when neither was even thinking about winning the race, or even about each other.
Aru 2015 - 39k of TT only, Rodriguez couldn’t put any real time into Aru uphill and, as you said, did a very poor TT.
Roglic 2020 - lol, please. There was a grand total of one TT, 34k in length and finishing on freaking Mirador de Ézaro. That Vuelta was, if anything, skewed towards the climbers.

Examples the other way:
Vuelta 2013 - Nibali took 1:29 on Horner in the only TT, sub-40k with enough climbing for Pozzovivo to finish third, and only lost by 37 seconds. In a Vuelta with nine legitimate MTFs plus uphill finishes at Lobeira, Fisterra and Valdepeñas.
Giro 2014 - would have been a lot closer if there was more than a 42k hilly TT to balance all the MTFs and the MTT. Add the time Quintana controversially took in the Stelvio descent and it’s very much flippable.
Vuelta 2016 - extrapolating from the gap in the only TT, Froome needs a shade below 60k of TT (including the existing TT) to flip the GC. In a race with ten MTFs, including the brutal Tourmalet stage, that is still balanced.
Giro 2018 - barely 40k of TT total, Dumoulin wins it with a little more time-trialing in the first half when Froome was riding terribly
Tour 2018 - Dumoulin probably needs too much TT to overturn the lead, but it would at least have been a lot closer if there isn’t only one TT that’s only 30k and hilly…
Tour 2019 - Thomas lost to Bernal by 1:11, having gained 1:22 in 27k of TT. About 50k of total TT distance needed to flip it, which seems a lot more balanced to me.
Tour 2020 - literally 30k of time trialing that wasn’t on a categorised climb. In a race with ten mountain stages, not even counting PBF in that same TT - clearly not balanced. Roglic could have won it with a mid-length flat TT earlier in the race, although I will concede that the main reason he lost was his/Jumbo’s own mistakes.
Giro 2022 - only 1:18 in it in a race with with 28k of TT, if the gap between Carapaz and Hindley in the TTs was slightly bigger that one also flips on a balanced route - as it is, Hindley would most probably have got away with his defensive riding from second place anyway.

TL;DR: the only times in the past decade that a disbalanced route has helped decide a GT was on routes lacking in TT.
 
Roglic won the Vuelta on boniseconds, not in the TT. That's far worse.
Yes, Hart, timetrialer extraordinaire. And Hesjedahl who made Cancellara and Martin tremble in their boots whenever he would do a TT when they were also participating.

Yeah, no.
I never said those were extraordinary tt'ers. Only that they won eventually due to having a slight advantage in the TT over their rival.

Nothing wrong with that actually. At the Giro d'Italia obviously it opens up the possibility to swing in both directions and most times results in interesting race developments.

I excluded the editons Froome was both the strongest uphill & in the TT's Lance Armstrong style. But I could've included the 2015 Tour de France of course after he slightly cracked on Alpe d'Huez.
 
I never said those were extraordinary tt'ers. Only that they won eventually due to having a slight advantage in the TT over their rival.

Nothing wrong with that actually. At the Giro d'Italia obviously it opens up the possibility to swing in both directions and most times results in interesting race developments.

I excluded the editons Froome was both the strongest uphill & in the TT's Lance Armstrong style. But I could've included the 2015 Tour de France of course after he slightly cracked on Alpe d'Huez.
So, as soon as there is one stage where one rival can take some time on another, that type of stage is what makes the GT heavily favoring that rider. So let's say there is 1 stage that has echelons due to the wind, and one GC guy ends up taking some time larger than the time difference that helps him win GC, then that GT was heavily favoring classic riders, even if the guy in this case sucks at classics?
 
So, as soon as there is one stage where one rival can take some time on another, that type of stage is what makes the GT heavily favoring that rider. So let's say there is 1 stage that has echelons due to the wind, and one GC guy ends up taking some time larger than the time difference that helps him win GC, then that GT was heavily favoring classic riders, even if the guy in this case sucks at classics?
I mean look how Cunego, a classics rider, won a Giro d'Italia due to a joke of a Dolomites stage which ended up a super entertaining stage.

It shows how clueless Gouvenu and Prudhomme actually are with their favoring routes. There have been climbers friendly GT's eventually won by the better TT'er. Also TT friendly routes won by climbers. Most famously Michael Rasmussen's would have been 2007 Tour de France victory.

At the end you need to design a course that gives both possibilities. So exactly the contrast to what ASO does nowadays or did in 2012.

The 2005 Giro d'Italia always felt to me like the perfectly designed GT. Actually even better than the overrated 2010 edition IMHO. Partly of course because the contenders and the development of both Cunego & Basso cracking played a huge part in that. But it was very entertaining from start to finish. There were enough TT miles for Savoldelli to take it. Enough mountains for Simoni to put in some pressure and especially for Rujano to ride himself back in contention with long range attacks.
 
I mean look how Cunego, a classics rider, won a Giro d'Italia due to a joke of a Dolomites stage which ended up a super entertaining stage.

It shows how clueless Gouvenu and Prudhomme actually are with their favoring routes. There have been climbers friendly GT's eventually won by the better TT'er. Also TT friendly routes won by climbers. Most famously Michael Rasmussen's would have been 2007 Tour de France victory.

At the end you need to design a course that gives both possibilities. So exactly the contrast to what ASO does nowadays or did in 2012.

The 2005 Giro d'Italia always felt to me like the perfectly designed GT. Actually even better than the overrated 2010 edition IMHO. Partly of course because the contenders and the development of both Cunego & Basso cracking played a huge part in that. But it was very entertaining from start to finish. There were enough TT miles for Savoldelli to take it. Enough mountains for Simoni to put in some pressure and especially for Rujano to ride himself back in contention with long range attacks.
I agree about the balance, but you can't say that a lot of your earlier examples were due to inbalance. If you lose a GT to Hesjedal or Hart, then you just suck at one aspect of the game.
 
Some of the stages like the Tourmalet, Linares or stage 20 are among the best stages of this year's GTs which is great but once again we have a Grand Tour with a significant lack of ITT which is a disappointment. Seems that just like the Tour route was made with the French GC hopes in mind this Vuelta route favours Ayuso and Mas when compared to a Roglic.
 
I agree about the balance, but you can't say that a lot of your earlier examples were due to inbalance. If you lose a GT to Hesjedal or Hart, then you just suck at one aspect of the game.
Aaah no, that was never the intention of my post. It was just a short list of riders that eventually ended up winning a GT in the TT's. Sorry for not making that clear from the start.
 
‘In the past 10 years’. Up until 2012, agree there were plenty of GTs weighted, sometimes heavily, towards the time trialists.

Dumoulin 2017 - would argue that that was a fairly balanced GT, and even then Dumoulin only needed the amount of TT there was because of him taking a **** at the bottom of the Umbrail. Without that, he likely would have been in pink going into the final TT with only 40k of TT being raced at that point in a race that had quite a lot of climbing. And he would have lost handsomely had Nibali or Quintana - the only two riders in that GC battle who also ever finished higher than third in a GT - been anywhere near their best.
TGH 2020 - GC was tied with less than 50k of TT done in what was probably the hardest Giro post-Zomegnan, also the only time Hindley dropped TGH on a climb was on stage 3 when neither was even thinking about winning the race, or even about each other.
Aru 2015 - 39k of TT only, Rodriguez couldn’t put any real time into Aru uphill and, as you said, did a very poor TT.
Roglic 2020 - lol, please. There was a grand total of one TT, 34k in length and finishing on freaking Mirador de Ézaro. That Vuelta was, if anything, skewed towards the climbers.

Examples the other way:
Vuelta 2013 - Nibali took 1:29 on Horner in the only TT, sub-40k with enough climbing for Pozzovivo to finish third, and only lost by 37 seconds. In a Vuelta with nine legitimate MTFs plus uphill finishes at Lobeira, Fisterra and Valdepeñas.
Giro 2014 - would have been a lot closer if there was more than a 42k hilly TT to balance all the MTFs and the MTT. Add the time Quintana controversially took in the Stelvio descent and it’s very much flippable.
Vuelta 2016 - extrapolating from the gap in the only TT, Froome needs a shade below 60k of TT (including the existing TT) to flip the GC. In a race with ten MTFs, including the brutal Tourmalet stage, that is still balanced.
Giro 2018 - barely 40k of TT total, Dumoulin wins it with a little more time-trialing in the first half when Froome was riding terribly
Tour 2018 - Dumoulin probably needs too much TT to overturn the lead, but it would at least have been a lot closer if there isn’t only one TT that’s only 30k and hilly…
Tour 2019 - Thomas lost to Bernal by 1:11, having gained 1:22 in 27k of TT. About 50k of total TT distance needed to flip it, which seems a lot more balanced to me.
Tour 2020 - literally 30k of time trialing that wasn’t on a categorised climb. In a race with ten mountain stages, not even counting PBF in that same TT - clearly not balanced. Roglic could have won it with a mid-length flat TT earlier in the race, although I will concede that the main reason he lost was his/Jumbo’s own mistakes.
Giro 2022 - only 1:18 in it in a race with with 28k of TT, if the gap between Carapaz and Hindley in the TTs was slightly bigger that one also flips on a balanced route - as it is, Hindley would most probably have got away with his defensive riding from second place anyway.

TL;DR: the only times in the past decade that a disbalanced route has helped decide a GT was on routes lacking in TT.
Was gonna call out the 2012 Tour then stared at my screen in horror that it's not the past decade anymore
 
I like the dichotomy of Contador in 2008. Won the climber friendly Giro in the TTs, won the TT friendly Vuelta on the Angliru
Although that partly was due to Fedaia being used completely wrong as a MTF. When Contador actually was in difficulties on Giau already but all the favorites waited until the end with their attacks. Also because the massive Kronplatz mtt was the last of 3 Dolomites stages. Fully wrong placements of the stages back then.
 
You know what, I'm going to give this route the benefit of the doubt if only because of that Stage 20. 208km of pure up-and-down. Yessir, much better than yet another uphill finish on Angliru or Sierra Nevada or something.

Ages ago I designed a Vuelta route that had a Stage 20 almost exactly like this one, in the same area and with the climb to Escorial as the last climb. I'm going to assume Guillén stole my idea.
 
You know what, I'm going to give this route the benefit of the doubt if only because of that Stage 20. 208km of pure up-and-down. Yessir, much better than yet another uphill finish on Angliru or Sierra Nevada or something.

Ages ago I designed a Vuelta route that had a Stage 20 almost exactly like this one, in the same area and with the climb to Escorial as the last climb. I'm going to assume Guillén stole my idea.
I thought you'd just be fantasizing about team busses making their way down the Angliru
 
I agree about the balance, but you can't say that a lot of your earlier examples were due to inbalance. If you lose a GT to Hesjedal or Hart, then you just suck at one aspect of the game.
Well, in 2012 it was more just that the entire field were complete cowards and race organisers, when designing courses, should prepare for the worst case scenario: that the Giro 2012 péloton enters their race.
 

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