53rd Amstel Gold Race - 260km

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I never watch FW live anymore. Just the youtube highlight of the final km is enough to see Valv win another boring sprint. That race should be downgraded to 1.2

Yeah, Valverde is so good that it makes the race bad and super predictable. But even if Valverde hadn't dominated to the extent that he has done (and probably will continue until '19), it would still be a boring race. Would be fun to see them shake things up like the Amstel has done - they really deserve credit for that. Im sure we will have a cracking race again.

A Valverde fan that dares to admit this. For this you earn some respect. Hopefully this year's AGR is as good as last year. I don't expect PhilGil to be good here though. He's not as good as last year and Roubaix isn't the best prep rqce for the AGR.

Valverde-fans can actually also have common sense.

I expect Phil to be good enough to contend for the win. Roubaix really isn't a good race for him, so I don't think we can judge im on that one. If I had to pick the race that suits Gilbert the best, it would probably be AGR and he was pretty good in Flanders.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah AGR could end up being a sprint. The guys who made the decisive move last year aren't in top form, though I don't remember how much help they got from the riders who were from a previous breakaway.

You can bet that normally nobody will ride with Sagan, and unless Bahrain makes the final break they'll ride for a sprint. Nibali will probably try to be part of the group and then cooperate little if he's got people with him he can't drop or beat in a sprint.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

I never watch FW live anymore. Just the youtube highlight of the final km is enough to see Valv win another boring sprint. That race should be downgraded to 1.2

Yeah, Valverde is so good that it makes the race bad and super predictable. But even if Valverde hadn't dominated to the extent that he has done (and probably will continue until '19), it would still be a boring race. Would be fun to see them shake things up like the Amstel has done - they really deserve credit for that. Im sure we will have a cracking race again.

I disagree. FW is the all in uphill sprinting puncheur’s championship of the world and it should continue to be that. Just like the Champs Elysee doesn’t need to be “fixed” to avoid an almost inevitable sprint finish. LBL is the race that needs to be fixed because one FW is fine but two is not.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I never watch FW live anymore. Just the youtube highlight of the final km is enough to see Valv win another boring sprint. That race should be downgraded to 1.2

Yeah, Valverde is so good that it makes the race bad and super predictable. But even if Valverde hadn't dominated to the extent that he has done (and probably will continue until '19), it would still be a boring race. Would be fun to see them shake things up like the Amstel has done - they really deserve credit for that. Im sure we will have a cracking race again.

I disagree. FW is the all in uphill sprinting puncheur’s championship of the world and it should continue to be that. Just like the Champs Elysee doesn’t need to be “fixed” to avoid an almost inevitable sprint finish. LBL is the race that needs to be fixed because one FW is fine but two is not.

Liege has a finish change coming next season with a move of location of the finishing town.

 

[Velolover2]

I doubt it will be a reduced sprint. I'm sure Sagan actually want to race this. Same with Gilbert and Kwiatkowski.

And there will be less teams chasing them. Who is gonna chase if a strong group of 10 gets clear? There are almost no sprinters in the race.

 

[The Hegelian]

It's pretty cool how AG has changed into a race with potential winners ranging from climber to sprinter. I actually liked the Gilberg/Cauberg finale but I have to admit they made the right decision changing the parcours.

I have no idea who's going to win.

 

[Velolover2]

I wonder if Terpstra (who is racing it) has a chance on the new course? I mean, why not? It's like De Ronde but without the cobbles.

If he goes very early (as in before Kruisberg), maybe he could cheat the favorites.

 

[The Hegelian]

He's clearly still in super hot form. If guys like Matthews and Cobrelli have a chance (and I think they do), then for sure Terpstra does. He seems to have developed a more blistering attack than he used to have. One thing to be tt powerhouse and stay away once gone; quite another to ride great riders off the wheel....

 

[SKSemtex]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

 

[Valv.Piti]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

Of course there is a way to drop Sagan on these hills. Lets see how strong he is after Roubaix. We aren't suddenly talking about Gilbert 2011 or 2009 Contador here where only mechanicals and massive bookings will make them lose

 

[SKSemtex]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

Of course there is a way to drop Sagan on these hills. Lets see how strong he is after Roubaix. We aren't suddenly talking about Gilbert 2011 or 2009 Contador here where only mechanicals and massive bookings will make them lose

Avatar bet? I have a nice photo of Sagan in blue t-shirt for you fo next 3 months.

 

[Nirvana]

This race is the big goal of Colbrelly spring so i think Bahrain will be all with him, Nibali included.
The last test of Nibali ahead of Liege will be a suicide attack before Huy in Fleche.

I think that this year could be much more controlled, less riders that want to rip the race apart and with weaker form in comparision with last year.

 

[Gigs_98]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

Of course there is a way to drop Sagan on these hills. Lets see how strong he is after Roubaix. We aren't suddenly talking about Gilbert 2011 or 2009 Contador here where only mechanicals and massive bookings will make them lose

Avatar bet? I have a nice photo of Sagan in blue t-shirt for you fo next 3 months.

I know you replied to valv.piti but if he doesn't want to I'm open for an avatar bet. I think you are completely overestimating Sagan

 

[SKSemtex]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

Of course there is a way to drop Sagan on these hills. Lets see how strong he is after Roubaix. We aren't suddenly talking about Gilbert 2011 or 2009 Contador here where only mechanicals and massive bookings will make them lose. 3 months avarar

Avatar bet? I have a nice photo of Sagan in blue t-shirt for you fo next 3 months.

I know you replied to valv.piti but if he doesn't want to I'm open for an avatar bet. I think you are completely overestimating Sagan

I prefer Pití (or DFA) but if they do
not take it we have a deal.
The deal is : Bora wins I win, Bora lose you win.

 

[krakenKE]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

As much as I'd like to see Sagan win let's not forget he has never ridden Roubaix AGR combo. He skipped opening cobbled weekend but it is still unknown if he can perform just week after his hard effort at Roubaix. When was the last time that Roubaix champion or top 10 finisher won AGR? My bet is that Bora would use him as a decoy and go for McCarthy.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

This race is the big goal of Colbrelly spring so i think Bahrain will be all with him, Nibali included.
The last test of Nibali ahead of Liege will be a suicide attack before Huy in Fleche.

I think that this year could be much more controlled, less riders that want to rip the race apart and with weaker form in comparision with last year.

Fleche Wallone is the one race in the year where even a suicide attack happens in the last 500m

 

[SafeBet]

When was the last time that Roubaix champion or top 10 finisher won AGR? My bet is that Bora would use him as a decoy and go for McCarthy.

Erik Zabel in 2000, but there were 12 days (and LBL) between the two races back then.

BTW, Zabel was a monster in the Classics that year: 1st Sanremo, 4th Ronde, 3rd Roubaix, 1st AGR.

 

[tobydawq]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

As much as I'd like to see Sagan win let's not forget he has never ridden Roubaix AGR combo. He skipped opening cobbled weekend but it is still unknown if he can perform just week after his hard effort at Roubaix. When was the last time that Roubaix champion or top 10 finisher won AGR? My bet is that Bora would use him as a decoy and go for McCarthy.

I think this logic is flawed since usually the best riders for Amstel don't ride Roubaix. Except for GVA. It's a bit like saying the last years have proved that the Dauphiné is the better way to prepare for the Tour than Tour de Suisse. They haven't - it's just that all the favourites have chosen to ride in France, so of course the top of the TdF GC will primarily contain Dauphiné riders.

Sagan is a good rider for Amstel and in the Tour he always shows how amazing recovery he has. He will be good Sunday.

 

[Bardamu]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

As much as I'd like to see Sagan win let's not forget he has never ridden Roubaix AGR combo. He skipped opening cobbled weekend but it is still unknown if he can perform just week after his hard effort at Roubaix. When was the last time that Roubaix champion or top 10 finisher won AGR? My bet is that Bora would use him as a decoy and go for McCarthy.

Maybe on the steepest climbs Sagan might be dropped, but if the racing stope he will always be able to get back. Having Sagan racing the Amstel could mean they need to start the finale quite early.

 

[krakenKE]

This race is Sagan's to lose. There is no way anybody can get rid of him on this "hills" only by multiplied attacks by favourites.

However I start to think that he is going to pay (or prepay) his teammates back.
He either wins or help somebody in his team to win. It is difficult to say if by late atack, or sprint. Jay McCarthy is on 34/1 . . But he is probably too light for this. Sagan in this form can make final selection any moment or anchor several otherwise decesive breaks. IMHO.
The only chance for other teams is very hard race from the beginning.

As much as I'd like to see Sagan win let's not forget he has never ridden Roubaix AGR combo. He skipped opening cobbled weekend but it is still unknown if he can perform just week after his hard effort at Roubaix. When was the last time that Roubaix champion or top 10 finisher won AGR? My bet is that Bora would use him as a decoy and go for McCarthy.

I think this logic is flawed since usually the best riders for Amstel don't ride Roubaix. Except for GVA. It's a bit like saying the last years have proved that the Dauphiné is the better way to prepare for the Tour than Tour de Suisse. They haven't - it's just that all the favourites have chosen to ride in France, so of course the top of the TdF GC will primarily contain Dauphiné riders.

Sagan is a good rider for Amstel and in the Tour he always shows how amazing recovery he has. He will be good Sunday.

Yeah but the question remains if they don't ride Roubaix because they know they have zero chance or because they know it is hard to recover from it. GVA was super strong last spring and still was "only" 12th. Even Gilbert last year skipped the Roubaix. Do you think he would have won if he rode it?

I honestly hope that Sagan will be good and if he wins that would be huge achievement but to say it is his race to lose is probably too much.

 

[SKSemtex]

I hardly can imagine the better race for Sagan then AGR.
He definitely started season one two weeks later this year. It almost looked he sacrificed MSR in order to win PR.
Every week he is stronger and stronger. Bora put the AGR to his race calendar for some reason.

I do not think he will fade the same way as in 2013 where he was second best in RVV, 2 levels better than GVA, Gilbert in Brabantse Pijl. But, of course, it is possible. We will see on Sunday.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

This race is the big goal of Colbrelly spring so i think Bahrain will be all with him, Nibali included.
The last test of Nibali ahead of Liege will be a suicide attack before Huy in Fleche.

I think that this year could be much more controlled, less riders that want to rip the race apart and with weaker form in comparision with last year.

Fleche Wallone is the one race in the year where even a suicide attack happens in the last 500m

Every year there is someone that try something on the penultimate Huy or on the penultimate cote, Nibali himself tried to attack on Cherave even in 2015 despite being clearly out of form that year.

The problem is that usually is a rider alone, for this reason is a suicide, last year if two or three riders would have followed Jungels maybe they even could have succeded.

Anyway it's a recent trend, even if seems ages ago the last race more exciting it's only the last 10 years circa that is boring, in 2009 (so nine year ago) i remember a lot of action in the last 50 kms, the previuos year a large group with riders like Gilbert, Kolobnev, Schleck, van den Broeck attacked with 100 kms to go, even the first win of Valverde come from an attack before Huy.

 

[Velolover2]

The thing about Amstel is that Sagan can win it in 3 ways: As a reduced bunch sprint, in a small group or solo.

Not many riders can do that. If anything, he has a luxury problem. Should he go with the break and waste some energy if they get catch or stay in the main peloton but risking the victory if the break makes it to the finish line?

 

[Nirvana]

I hardly can imagine the better race for Sagan then AGR.
He definitely started season one two weeks later this year. It almost looked he sacrificed MSR in order to win PR.
Every week he is stronger and stronger. Bora put the AGR to his race calendar for some reason.

I do not think he will fade the same way as in 2013 where he was second best in RVV, 2 levels better than GVA, Gilbert in Brabantse Pijl. But, of course, it is possible. We will see on Sunday.

I don't think he's stronger and stronger every week, in Roubaix he finally won because he doesn't have problems and he decided to attack instead of wait and let someone else go.
And we can't compare taday's Sagan with the 2013 one's when he was a different rider, a lot stronger in climbing without the extra weight he has now.

 

[SKSemtex]

I hardly can imagine the better race for Sagan then AGR.
He definitely started season one two weeks later this year. It almost looked he sacrificed MSR in order to win PR.
Every week he is stronger and stronger. Bora put the AGR to his race calendar for some reason.

I do not think he will fade the same way as in 2013 where he was second best in RVV, 2 levels better than GVA, Gilbert in Brabantse Pijl. But, of course, it is possible. We will see on Sunday.

I don't think he's stronger and stronger every week, in Roubaix he finally won because he doesn't have problems and he decided to attack instead of wait and let someone else go.
And we can't compare taday's Sagan with the 2013 one's when he was a different rider, a lot stronger in climbing without the extra weight he has now.

NO, he won PR because he was the strongest. He kept almost 1 min to a group well-organized chasers for more than 30 km. So yes. He was definitely the strongest, not the smartest this race.