85th Tour de Suisse (2.UWT) // June 12th - 19th 2022

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Do you really not believe that there is a distinction to be drawn between a set of abilities and a result?

There is no distinction to be drawn. We are looking at the facts only, which is what i was asked to do.

In Benelux tour Evenepoel was sick and had to give up the next day. His result is being used in the data to compare him to Küng who -not being sick- did a better TT.
In TDF2019 Pinot crashed out and had to give up his GC classification. I'm also using this result in the data to compare him to Greipel who -not crashing out- did a better GC.

I'm not the one being biased here, but ofcourse data are only cool when they fit your agenda. Which is what i'm being accused of, so i'm simply trying to look at the data now.

 

[Red Rick]

Thomas has a Tour win, Roglic doesn't. Winning three Vuelta's is great but he hasn't won a Giro or Tour yet and he's in his peak years already. Thomas not the rider he was a few years ago. Nobody will remember Valverde's multiple top 10s in grand Tours when the only GT he won was a Vuelta with one Tour podium. When records are mentioned the real weight is with the wins. Ironically it was Pogacar's first podium behind Roglic at a young age which indicated what a talent he could be. while Roglic didn't even attempt a GT until he was 26. If Pogacar retains his same level or even improves a little, which is possible, Roglic is going to need luck to win a Tour. I'd like to see Roglic do the Giro next season and he could still do the Vuelta as well. Depending on how the Tour pans out maybe he will. Jumbo have enough depth now to cover both races and be competitive and Hindley will possibly ride the Tour next season. Like to see Pinot go back to the Giro next season as well. With Bernal's career up in the air, Carapaz will probably do the Tour next season.

This is just where July stanning goes way overboard.

Not every TdF winner > every non a
TdF winner

 

[CHGJ2000]

It really is. We are looking at the facts now, remember. So if you crash out, your GC result is void. Hence Greipel was a better GC rider than Pinot. Evenepoel getting sick doesn't show up in the above ''facts'' either. The above facts also include a prologue, which is a niche subbranch of a TT, and has the timeloss (9s) converted to s/km to make it look relevant, lol.

Can't have it both ways. Either we look at the numbers, or we look at the achievement in light of the context.

Here are some other facts. Of the 12 times both TT specialists faced off, Evenepoel won 4 times, Küng won 2 times.
Of the 19 Men's Elite TT's Evenepoel did (excluding TTT, prologue or NC's), he won 7. That's 37%
Of the 58 Men's Elite TT's Küng did (excluding TTT, prologue or NC's), he won 10. That's 17%

Out of 7 WCC ITT ME, Küng managed 1 bronze medal.
Out of 2 WCC ITT ME, Evenepoel managed 1 silver and 1 bronze medal.



Absolutely. There is a very high probability he would not have won the TT if he didn't get some draft from riders he overtook. The difference was only 3s. Thomas was also not able to benefit from overtaking a slower rider. You can laugh with this, but that's an actual fact. Cavagna handed Küng the win in the ECC last year. Tusveld handed Ganna the win in Tirreno. That stuff simply matters.

I think catches are worth a lot less than you think. If someone gets a huge car draft (sitting quite close behind for a few hundreds metres and slingshot with the car not getting out of the way at all), they might get somewhat close to an 8s gain, but without that, it's not gonna be close. It's kinda obvious if you actually think about what is happening in a time trial. Depending on the length, the top TT'ers in the world are gonna be cruising at 55-60kph on the flat, which is 15.3-16.7 metres per second. Over the period that they'll be close to catching a rider (2-3KM's at best within 100-300 metres of their follow car unless it's a crazy long TT), they'd have to be experiencing insane drops in aerodynamic drag to get a gain that big (e.g. would need to be producing 58.5 kph over 3KM compared to 55 kph to gain 11s), something that just doesn't exist.

Research out of Leuven from Bert Blocken modelling a car at 19.2m ahead estimated a drop in drag of 13.1% (worth roughly 2.5 kph if original velocity was 55 kph), but obviously riders rarely ever get that close to cars because they're pulled out, and if they do it is for periods lasting not much more than a few seconds, and it still wouldn't be enough unless they sat there for KM's somehow (rider in front would need to speed up a lot).

FWIW: if you have strava premium and use their comparison feature for segments of TT's, this would be fairly obvious, as if gains were that big, you'd expect to see riders have incredibly erratic delta changes between them based on when they were getting catches, that is not shown in reality.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You clearly are a smart guy and your takes are generally logically sound, but surely you recognize the inherent bias in only introducing context with select results that fit a narrative. This is why, as I'm sure you know, statisticians look at data in aggregate rather that one piece at a time. Aggregated data generally tells the story more clearly than individual data points, although analysis of data points can identify anomalies to toss out and explanations for the larger trend. For example, one analysis might show that, in general, it is difficult to differentiate between Kung and Remco because they are 6-6 head-to-head. Another might show that Remco is prone to crashes. Another might show that Remco has a higher win rate. Another might show that given a certain set of circumstances (e.g., Given that Remco is healthy, in top form, doesn't crash, and has a rabbit to crash), he is likely to win. But merge the last with the first without applying that analysis to all data points introduces bias and nullifies the result. But we all understand you passion I think.

The list Jaylew posted is just ridiculous, because it only looks at the results. That was the point. He also failed to realise i was (at that time) simply yanking another poster's chain with my seconds vs minutes comment. The results are what they are, and if you want to use them to create a certain narrative, you can. But people don't have to come crying when i mockingly use the same criteria to prove that Greipel was a better GC rider than Pinot in the 2019TDF. Actually, we could check because i think there is a reasonable chance that Greipel might have finished ahead of Pinot quite a few times. It's stupid, and equally meaningful as comparing results of riders where one rider was sick or had crashed.

But i encourage Jaylew to take his data and facts to the nearest betting website, i'm sure he'll make lots of money.

Research out of Leuven from Bert Blocken modelling a car at 19.2m ahead estimated a drop in drag of 13.1% (worth roughly 2.5 kph if original velocity was 55 kph), but obviously riders rarely ever get that close to cars because they're pulled out, and if they do it is for periods lasting not much more than a few seconds, and it still wouldn't be enough unless they sat there for KM's somehow (rider in front would need to speed up a lot).

FWIW: if you have strava premium and use their comparison feature for segments of TT's, this would be fairly obvious, as if gains were that big, you'd expect to see riders have incredibly erratic delta changes between them based on when they were getting catches, that is not shown in reality.

Thank you. You can read more in the topic i created 3 years ago about research of Bert Blocken in case some things might not be entirely clear to you. I have posted lots of literature on the subject in this topic here on the forum. I'm sure you also found out that according to his research a rider gets a better draft from another rider or motorcycle, than from a car. In the case of a TT, overtaking another rider however, usually means a car, a rider and a motorcycle.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

There is no distinction to be drawn. We are looking at the facts only, which is what i was asked to do.

In Benelux tour Evenepoel was sick and had to give up the next day. His result is being used in the data to compare him to Küng who -not being sick- did a better TT.
In TDF2019 Pinot crashed out and had to give up his GC classification. I'm also using this result in the data to compare him to Greipel who -not crashing out- did a better GC.

I'm not the one being biased here, but ofcourse data are only cool when they fit your agenda. Which is what i'm being accused of, so i'm simply trying to look at the data now.

My agenda? Can you name any thread where I have shown an agenda of fanboyism or antipathy for a rider?

What you are citing is examples: if only one example of any data set is given, a meaningful conclusion cannot be confidently drawn, A series, as complete a series as is possible in the context, was given in comparison of RE and SK' s directly comparable TT results. Of course the relevance of any of those data can be challenged, but to state that as a complete set it is no more relevant that a one off event in which results very evidently were not a reflection of skill set is a gross offence against, errr, logic.

 

[Oldermanish]

The list Jaylew posted is just ridiculous, because it only looks at the results. That was the point. He also failed to realise i was (at that time) simply yanking another poster's chain with my seconds vs minutes comment. The results are what they are, and if you want to use them to create a certain narrative, you can. But people don't have to come crying when i mockingly use the same criteria to prove that Greipel was a better GC rider than Pinot in the 2019TDF. Actually, we could check because i think there is a reasonable chance that Greipel might have finished ahead of Pinot quite a few times. It's stupid, and equally meaningful as comparing results of riders where one rider was sick or had crashed.

But i encourage Jaylew to take his data and facts to the nearest betting website, i'm sure he'll make lots of money.

You gotta give him credit for researching that level of self-serving data. Most data anyone posts is for the same purpose.
While it's true some data is relevant, after the fact; it doesn't have any effect on an actual race. Mark Twain would love our forums and retold Disraeli's observation: "there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics" .
If riders read and believed prior statistics they'd cease to RACERS. There are those in the pro field that seem to have done that.

 

[CHGJ2000]

The list Jaylew posted is just ridiculous, because it only looks at the results. That was the point. He also failed to realise i was (at that time) simply yanking another poster's chain with my seconds vs minutes comment. The results are what they are, and if you want to use them to create a certain narrative, you can. But people don't have to come crying when i mockingly use the same criteria to prove that Greipel was a better GC rider than Pinot in the 2019TDF. Actually, we could check because i think there is a reasonable chance that Greipel might have finished ahead of Pinot quite a few times. It's stupid, and equally meaningful as comparing results of riders where one rider was sick or had crashed.

But i encourage Jaylew to take his data and facts to the nearest betting website, i'm sure he'll make lots of money.



Thank you. You can read more in the topic i created 3 years ago about research of Bert Blocken in case some things might not be entirely clear to you. I have posted lots of literature on the subject in this topic here on the forum. I'm sure you also found out that according to his research a rider gets a better draft from another rider or motorcycle, than from a car. In the case of a TT, overtaking another rider however, usually means a car, a rider and a motorcycle.

Yes I'm aware of the draft from a rider but it's simply not worth that much time. Please provide some actual analysis in here as to how all those combined could be worth 8-11s. It would require a massive increase in velocity that simply is not observed.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yes I'm aware of the draft from a rider but it's simply not worth that much time. Please provide some actual analysis in here as to how all those combined could be worth 8-11s. It would require a massive increase in velocity that simply is not observed.

So you think that in a 22k ITT, that Küng felt comfortable enough to ride below threshold for the first part, while facing not just Evenepoel but also Ganna , riders who have beaten him more often than not, and was then able to take back 15s on Evenepoel and 10s on Ganna (i'm not sure anymore how far he was behind at the intermediate), and he magically just rode a killer 2nd part and the fact that Cavagna riding in front of him was merely a coincidence? Alternatively, you might think that both Ganna as well as Evenepoel (who both beat Küng a week or so later at the WCC in a longer ITT) couldn't keep their pace over 22k? Frankly i don't care enough to get into this any deeper, because it is just so obvious.

They don't start half hearted in a 22k ITT, they start all out, unless it's a hilly TT, which it wasn't. There is no reasonable explanation considering neither Ganna nor Evenepoel crashed, that would have Küng make up so much time on Ganna and Evenepoel in roughly 11k. That would mean he was riding 1s per km faster all of a sudden.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

My agenda? Can you name any thread where I have shown an agenda of fanboyism or antipathy for a rider?

What you are citing is examples: if only one example of any data set is given, a meaningful conclusion cannot be confidently drawn, A series, as complete a series as is possible in the context, was given in comparison of RE and SK' s directly comparable TT results. Of course the relevance of any of those data can be challenged, but to state that as a complete set it is no more relevant that a one off event in which results very evidently were not a reflection of skill set is a gross offence against, errr, logic.

Ok, fine. I dove into it a bit deeper just for you.

Greipel also beat Pinot in 2017, in 2016 and 2013. So that's 4 editions of the TDF where Greipel had the better GC result compared to Pinot. So, now we have a data set and we can say that in head to head results Greipel and Pinot are neck & neck in terms of GC results in Tour de France editions where they faced each other: 4-4

 

[movingtarget]

This is just where July stanning goes way overboard.

Not every TdF winner > every non a
TdF winner

As much as the Vuelta has improved over the years its still the little brother of the other two and unless something radical happens the Tour is still the most important bike race in the season for sponsors, for rider contracts and for publicity. It usually has the best GC field, best sprint field and teams usually send their A team. In the three Roglic Vuelta wins, old man Valverde made the podium as did Hugh Carthy and Kelderman..............

 

[Pinot's goat]

Kelderman..............

That was Giro 2020, he was fourth (or 5th?) at Vuelta in 2017

 

[search]

there's a small feature about Bora's race on Radsport-News. Higuita's luggage never arrived in Switzerland, so he didn't have a skinsuit for the time trial - until he took the lead.

Must be the first ever rider who was happy about the one provided by the organisation.

 

[CHGJ2000]

So you think that in a 22k ITT, that Küng felt comfortable enough to ride below threshold for the first part, while facing not just Evenepoel but also Ganna , riders who have beaten him more often than not, and was then able to take back 15s on Evenepoel and 10s on Ganna (i'm not sure anymore how far he was behind at the intermediate), and he magically just rode a killer 2nd part and the fact that Cavagna riding in front of him was merely a coincidence? Alternatively, you might think that both Ganna as well as Evenepoel (who both beat Küng a week or so later at the WCC in a longer ITT) couldn't keep their pace over 22k? Frankly i don't care enough to get into this any deeper, because it is just so obvious.

They don't start half hearted in a 22k ITT, they start all out, unless it's a hilly TT, which it wasn't. There is no reasonable explanation considering neither Ganna nor Evenepoel crashed, that would have Küng make up so much time on Ganna and Evenepoel in roughly 11k. That would mean he was riding 1s per km faster all of a sudden.

Negative splits exist. Denying that seems to be an odd point, especially on this thread considering what went on in the final TT. Martinez lost 1.92s per KM to Remco up to t1 and 2.08s per KM to Kung. On the back half, he lost 0.32s per KM on Remco who had a catch as you've noted while Martinez did not, and gained 0.88s per KM on Kung, so relative changes of 1.6s per KM and 2.96s per KM.

So to answer your questions, yes I think he was able to take back those amounts of time, I don't think it was magic, I think it's likely different pacing strategies occurred, I do think he would have had a gain from Cavagna, but nowhere near the margins you suggested, Ganna said after the event: "It was immediately that I felt that the sensations weren't good, ever since I started making the reels for the warm-up". "We knew who the opponents were to beat, Kung was one of my names. I knew I could play it, I also knew that there were many champions. I did my best", would not be shocking considering that statement that he went out at his prescribed pacing plan but could not keep it up, no idea about Remco but riders doing negative splits relative to each other shouldn't really need to be explained.

fwiw: the time gaps were 3.75s for Kung to Ganna, 1.75s to Remco, so Kung lost 0.36s per KM to Ganna and 0.17s per KM to Remco, then gained 0.99s per KM on Ganna and 1.40s per KM on Remco, relative changes of 1.35s per KM and 1.57s per KM to Remco.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Negative splits exist. Denying that seems to be an odd point, especially on this thread considering what went on in the final TT. Martinez lost 1.92s per KM to Remco up to t1 and 2.08s per KM to Kung. On the back half, he lost 0.32s per KM on Remco who had a catch as you've noted while Martinez did not, and gained 0.88s per KM on Kung, so relative changes of 1.6s per KM and 2.96s per KM.

So to answer your questions, yes I think he was able to take back those amounts of time, I don't think it was magic, I think it's likely different pacing strategies occurred, I do think he would have had a gain from Cavagna, but nowhere near the margins you suggested, Ganna said after the event: "It was immediately that I felt that the sensations weren't good, ever since I started making the reels for the warm-up". "We knew who the opponents were to beat, Kung was one of my names. I knew I could play it, I also knew that there were many champions. I did my best", would not be shocking considering that statement that he went out at his prescribed pacing plan but could not keep it up, no idea about Remco but riders doing negative splits relative to each other shouldn't really need to be explained.

fwiw: the time gaps were 3.75s for Kung to Ganna, 1.75s to Remco, so Kung lost 0.36s per KM to Ganna and 0.17s per KM to Remco, then gained 0.99s per KM on Ganna and 1.40s per KM on Remco, relative changes of 1.35s per KM and 1.57s per KM to Remco.

Not the same thing, but a car riding 10m behind (!) a rider, already gives a benefit of 1s per 12.5 km. So there is no doubt in my mind that a small caravan consisting of a motor, rider and car in front of a rider can have the effect we are talking about.

In an article of 2019, Blocken says that riding 30 meters behind only a motorcycle for only 1 minute, already gives an advantage of 2.6s. Now, imagine a motorcycle, cyclist and car. The draft will start having it's effect further away, and as the cyclist moves closer than 30m and gets into the draft of the rider in front, the gain and slingshot effect will be much much bigger. In case there is a headwind, the benefits grow exponentially.

 

[tobydawq]

So you think that in a 22k ITT, that Küng felt comfortable enough to ride below threshold for the first part, while facing not just Evenepoel but also Ganna , riders who have beaten him more often than not, and was then able to take back 15s on Evenepoel and 10s on Ganna (i'm not sure anymore how far he was behind at the intermediate), and he magically just rode a killer 2nd part and the fact that Cavagna riding in front of him was merely a coincidence? Alternatively, you might think that both Ganna as well as Evenepoel (who both beat Küng a week or so later at the WCC in a longer ITT) couldn't keep their pace over 22k? Frankly i don't care enough to get into this any deeper, because it is just so obvious.

It's called a negative split, it really is not that magical.

 

[tobydawq]

Ok, fine. I dove into it a bit deeper just for you.

Greipel also beat Pinot in 2017, in 2016 and 2013. So that's 4 editions of the TDF where Greipel had the better GC result compared to Pinot. So, now we have a data set and we can say that in head to head results Greipel and Pinot are neck & neck in terms of GC results in Tour de France editions where they faced each other: 4-4

Aren't you being a bit ridiculous here? Küng can beat Remco on a TT if both are fresh and healthy, Greipel cannot beat Pinot in a GT GC if both are fresh and healthy. It boggles my mind that this needs to be said.

Do you know for a fact that Küng was 100% healthy all the times Remco beat him? If you don't know that, you're being just as biased as you scold the rest of us for being.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's called a negative split, it really is not that magical.

It is more uncommon in a shorter, flat TT, when facing world class opposition. Because chances are you will never recover in the second part what you lost in the first. Normally in a flat TT that length they go full gas from the start. I think overtaking Cavagna is a much more plausible explanation, than Küng being able to dig a bit deeper and suddenly distance both Evenepoel AND Ganna by nearly 1k/s. While roughly 10 days later he's nowhere near either of them, on also a flat course.

Aren't you being a bit ridiculous here? Küng can beat Remco on a TT if both are fresh and healthy, Greipel cannot beat Pinot in a GT GC if both are fresh and healthy. It boggles my mind that this needs to be said.

Do you know for a fact that Küng was 100% healthy all the times Remco beat him? If you don't know that, you're being just as biased as you scold the rest of us for being.

Of course i am being ridiculous. Jeez. Glad you caught on, that was the entire point. But in principle it is no different from using TT's where a rider is sick, crashed or called back from the beach. If you want to have a serious discussion, i'm sure you'll agree that context matters. Because the ''data/facts'' are meaningless without it.

Let's put it this way, there is a 50k TT coming up, normal in every way. A bit windy, not too much, some short shallow climbing sections, but not overly difficult, just a mediocre TT of 50k. Evenepoel and Küng are in good form and both are healthy and fit, well rested etc and have peaked for this event. You are in dire need of money. Making the correct bet makes your issues disappear. Who do you put your money on?

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Hey there, now Geraint Thomas eon the TdS… Happy for him, because G is a fighter, who often had bad luck, sadly.

But to be honest, if Vlasov hadn‘t had Corona, Vlasov would have won this TdS.

Dauphine JV, Slovenia UAE, and Suisse would have bern won by Bora…

I have to say that at the moment, JV, UAE and Bora are the three strongest teams in the world, as far as GCs in stage races are concerned.

I would say it is

1. UAE,
2. JV,
3. Bora,
4. Ineos.

I am very impressed by Bora, they were the best teams in the GCs of the stage races in 2022. Now I wish Vlasov a podium finish for the Tour. He can achieve that, no doubt about it.

Bora‘s transfers were super good this year, Higuita, Hindley and Vlasov are really strong.

 

[Tonton]

You need to change your board name.

First glance I was like you, but quickly realized that LIMF was showing how you can make data say anything. In '19, Greipel finished and Pinot didn't. So in a way, the opening statement is true. Stats can be misinterpreted.

'19 Tour: Stage 13 ITT, Pinot 7th, takes 47" on Bernal. Stage 14: Pinot wins and takes another 8" on Bernal and 36" on Geraint. Stage 15: Prat d'Albis, watch it again on Youtube. Super Tibopino. 18" on Bernal, 51" on Geraint. Eventually Egan won Le Tour. Thomas was second and he was quite a bit better than the Geraint we just saw in Suisse.

There's no way that he beats Pog and Rog in July. Unless they don't finish.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

First glance I was like you, but quickly realized that LIMF was showing how you can make data say anything. In '19, Greipel finished and Pinot didn't. So in a way, the opening statement is true. Stats can be misinterpreted.

Guys, i was just messing around. But after some research, i do find it funny that the GC head to head for TDF between Greipel and Pinot is actually 4-4.

btw, i like Pinot.

 

[RedheadDane]

First glance I was like you, but quickly realized that LIMF was showing how you can make data say anything. In '19, Greipel finished and Pinot didn't. So in a way, the opening statement is true. Stats can be misinterpreted.

Oh, it's definitely logic. A kinda weird and twisted logic, but... logic...

 

[Oldermanish]

Guys, i was just messing around. But after some research, i do find it funny that the GC head to head for TDF between Greipel and Pinot is actually 4-4.

btw, i like Pinot.

I like Pinot, too. He came closer to winning a GT than I did, so he has my respect on that count.

 

[RedheadDane]

Of course, you could argue that if we ignore DNFs (on the basis that it's basically a non-result; you need to finish race to have a result recorded), then even definitely not fit and healthy Pinot still got a better TdF GC result than Greipel ever did.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Oh, it's definitely logic. A kinda weird and twisted logic, but... logic...

How would it be twisted, in a comparison between two riders to determine who is best, to not include results of instances where one of them was hampered by sickness or injury? That was the whole point. How does one rider getting sick or injured during a race, translate to the other rider being the better rider? Be it sickness in Evenepoel's case in a TT, or injury in Pinot's case during a TDF.

 

[RedheadDane]

How would it be twisted, in a comparison between two riders to determine who is best, to not include results of instances where one of them was hampered by sickness or injury? That was the whole point. How does one rider getting sick or injured during a race, translate to the other rider being the better rider? Be it sickness in Evenepoel's case in a TT, or injury in Pinot's case during a TDF.

Wasn't that exactly what you "claimed"? That somehow Pinot not finishing the 2019 TdF made Greipel the better GC rider?