Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

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Jul 29, 2012
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Kwibus said:
It's all cool and stuff, but I'm more worried about Contador being passed his prime.

If he's not and he's abke to reach 2014 lvl then we are in for a great tdf. Still I doubt it.
How can a man be passed his prime when he destroyed everyone in 2014 and we're now only at the end of 2015? Makes no sense.
 
Re: Re:

Miburo said:
Kwibus said:
It's all cool and stuff, but I'm more worried about Contador being passed his prime.

If he's not and he's abke to reach 2014 lvl then we are in for a great tdf. Still I doubt it.
How can a man be passed his prime when he destroyed everyone in 2014 and we're now only at the end of 2015? Makes no sense.
We'll see I guess.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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Re: Re:

Kwibus said:
Miburo said:
Kwibus said:
It's all cool and stuff, but I'm more worried about Contador being passed his prime.

If he's not and he's abke to reach 2014 lvl then we are in for a great tdf. Still I doubt it.
How can a man be passed his prime when he destroyed everyone in 2014 and we're now only at the end of 2015? Makes no sense.
We'll see I guess.
That's a bad argument. I want your reasoning for thinking it, if it's just a feeling from you well can't argue that but objectively it makes no sense
 
May 13, 2015
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Re: Re:

Miburo said:
Kwibus said:
It's all cool and stuff, but I'm more worried about Contador being passed his prime.

If he's not and he's abke to reach 2014 lvl then we are in for a great tdf. Still I doubt it.
How can a man be passed his prime when he destroyed everyone in 2014 and we're now only at the end of 2015? Makes no sense.
Because things can and do change. That being said I believe and hope he will be at a higher level in 2016 than this year.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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That's also bad analysis, anything can change? Yea sure but wtf is that for a reasoning, what's the point in having a discussion when you come up with such reasoning?
 
May 13, 2015
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What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
 
Re:

Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Well 2009 was obviously the year Contador was at his best, so surely that means it was his peak?
 

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Nov 18, 2013
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Re: Re:

Miburo said:
Kwibus said:
It's all cool and stuff, but I'm more worried about Contador being passed his prime.

If he's not and he's abke to reach 2014 lvl then we are in for a great tdf. Still I doubt it.
How can a man be passed his prime when he destroyed everyone in 2014 and we're now only at the end of 2015? Makes no sense.
because it will be 2 years from 2014, he is moving away from his best years and he will be 33.5 years old. whereas Froome is bang in his peak years, and Quintana is still developing.

He destroyed sh!t in 2014, this is complete revisionism. However, that being said if we do get to see one last hurrah i'll be over the moon.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Well 2009 was obviously the year Contador was at his best, so surely that means it was his peak?
Of course not. It may have been his performance peak (I would call 2014 his performance peak though) but that wasn't necessarily his physical peak. If 2009 was his physical peak, there's no way 2014 could have happened. He would have the slowest decline ever if 2009 was his peak and he's still winning GTs 6 years later.
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Valv.Piti said:
LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Well 2009 was obviously the year Contador was at his best, so surely that means it was his peak?
Of course not. It may have been his performance peak (I would call 2014 his performance peak though) but that wasn't necessarily his physical peak. If 2009 was his physical peak, there's no way 2014 could have happened. He would have the slowest decline ever if 2009 was his peak and he's still winning GTs 6 years later.
By that logic, if 2014 was his peak, that means he will be as strong in 2021 as in 2007 since again, by your logic, you very steadily and slowly improve and decline but you and I know thats not how it works. It would also be hard to explain 2013 since he theoretically should be extremely close to his 'peak' shape.
 
May 13, 2015
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Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Why not? Why can't you be past your peak but still performing at a very high level?
 
one's peak is an utterly contingent thingy because as soon as the race's finished any single peak instantly remains in the past and since then we have no clue if an athlete will be able to reach this magic form once again, not to mention about if this form would be enough to win the race against different opponents under other circumstances a few years later on.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
LaFlorecita said:
Valv.Piti said:
LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Well 2009 was obviously the year Contador was at his best, so surely that means it was his peak?
Of course not. It may have been his performance peak (I would call 2014 his performance peak though) but that wasn't necessarily his physical peak. If 2009 was his physical peak, there's no way 2014 could have happened. He would have the slowest decline ever if 2009 was his peak and he's still winning GTs 6 years later.
By that logic, if 2014 was his peak, that means he will be as strong in 2021 as in 2007 since again, by your logic, you very steadily and slowly improve and decline but you and I know thats not how it works. It would also be hard to explain 2013 since he theoretically should be extremely close to his 'peak' shape.
Lol I never said you very steadily improve and decline.
He has been at a high level since 2007 (by the way in 2007 he climbed better than in 2009, so maybe he peaked when he was 24? :rolleyes: ), maybe he starts a rapid decline next year but we can't say that for certain. He was very strong in 2009, but he was also extremely strong in 2011 and 2014. He has been up and down, but why would you just look at the downs and say "he's declining" while ignoring the ups? In 2013 he got very heavy in the off season and he never managed to get into good enough shape to seriously challenge Froome. At the 2014 Tour he was 2 kg lighter than the year before. I believe his downs had more to do with various circumstances and not with an actual physical decline, because, again, how would we explain the ups then? Maybe his physical graph is all wonky with peaks in 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2014?
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Well 2009 was obviously the year Contador was at his best, so surely that means it was his peak?
I think 2009 was the point in his career where he was met with his greatest challenge and thus had the largest incentive to be motivated to train most intensively for what lay ahead. Faced with a challenge to his delayed defense of his Tour win and to the Tour leadership on his own team by a the return of the 7 time Tour winner Armstrong, backed by Bruyneel was motivation enough to come into the season ready for war. Additionally he had been denied the chance to defend his 2007 win (Astana wasn't allowed to race the Tour in 2008). It could have been his highest level form-wise but to see his performance versus Froome in the 2014 Vuelta, one could argue for both years as being the pinnacle of his career.

Arguments will be presented that his loss of time on the cobbled stage of the 2014 Tour being evidence of his not being as fit as many (including himself) believe is IMO not valid. One's performance on a rainy, cobbled flat stage in the first week of the Tour shouldn't be a barometer of what that rider's performance would've been in the upcoming mountains, had that rider made it that far before crashing out.

Contador has stated that Froome is the toughest opponent that he's faced in his career. In 2014, it is my belief that he had reached form potentially equal to that of 2009, that being evidenced by his performance in the 2014 Vuelta (and to a lesser extent, the 2014 Dauphine), where, unlike anyone else in the recent past, he showed that he was able to respond to the blistering accelerations that are Froome's trademark.

I anticipate the arguments that Froome wasn't 100 % during the Vuelta (neither was Contador) and that Froome only raced it to get a grand tour in his legs for 2014 (not to win??!!) will be posted.
 
Re: Re:

Metabolol said:
LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Why not? Why can't you be past your peak but still performing at a very high level?
Well if he is still performing at an extremely high level his "decline" shouldn't be an issue at all for his shape next year. He'll be on fire just like in 2014 ! (5 years into his decline)

My point: there is absolutely no evidence that 2009 was his physical peak, instead of 2011, or 2014, or who knows, maybe 2012 or 2013.
 
Re:

hrotha said:
2009 was his performance peak, just not his natural peak. :eek:
Yep. A current rider doesn't peak at 26 unless he is a young bloomer or sprinter.

The normal peak is between 28 and 32. But 33-34 can be the peak age for some riders in modern cycling. Valverde has had his best year in 2015.
 
May 13, 2015
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Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Why not? Why can't you be past your peak but still performing at a very high level?
Well if he is still performing at an extremely high level his "decline" shouldn't be an issue at all for his shape next year. He'll be on fire just like in 2014 ! (5 years into his decline)

My point: there is absolutely no evidence that 2009 was his physical peak, instead of 2011, or 2014, or who knows, maybe 2012 or 2013.
I never said it would be an issue I just said that things can change from one year to another and that different athletes decline at different rates. Stop being so defensive.

I believe Contador will perform at a high level next year regardless if his peak was in 2009, 2011 or 2014.
 
Re: Re:

Metabolol said:
LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
LaFlorecita said:
Metabolol said:
What are you talking about? An ahtlete can see a decline in his/her performances from one year to another, especially at 30+. There is no mystery there. For some athletes it's a more gradual decline for others it's more of a radical drop.

As for Contador, I don't know if he can reach the same level as in 2014. His peak was probably in 2009 so in that sense you could argue that he has already been past his prime for many years.
If 2009 was his peak he wouldn't be at such a high level right now. He was 26 ffs of course that wasn't his peak.
Why not? Why can't you be past your peak but still performing at a very high level?
Well if he is still performing at an extremely high level his "decline" shouldn't be an issue at all for his shape next year. He'll be on fire just like in 2014 ! (5 years into his decline)

My point: there is absolutely no evidence that 2009 was his physical peak, instead of 2011, or 2014, or who knows, maybe 2012 or 2013.
I never said it would be an issue I just said that things can change from one year to another and that different athletes decline at different rates. Stop being so defensive.

I believe Contador will perform at a high level next year regardless if his peak was in 2009, 2011 or 2014.
You said "he probably peaked in 2009". I just reminded you that we have no idea what year was his physical peak but that it is illogical to assume he peaked when he was 26, especially considering he was at the same, if not a higher level, in 2014.
 
Aug 31, 2012
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After really running some numbers, namely how old TdF winners are, I'm afraid to say that Contador isn't a young man in a young men's game.



But it's not all bad. About 13% of all TdF winners have been 33 or older, after all. Which, funnily enough, falls into the range of probabilities the bookmakers give Contador to win next year.
 
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