Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Carols]

Re:

From 3,50 to 5,50.

Isn't there a betting thread?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

From 3,50 to 5,50.

And that is why those bettings odds mean nothing.
Was he likelier to win the tour yesterday than he is today? No. The outcome is fixed in time. The likelihood is fixed in time. Nothing that happens right now will chance that except for crashes and illness.
In short, nobody should care.

So you din't think it was more likely for Contador to win prior to the smackdown by Froome?

No, because the outcome is fixed in time. It just gave us some insight into what that outcome will probably be (the outcome might still be that Contador beats Froome - but as I said it has no relation with what happened today)

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

From 3,50 to 5,50.

Isn't there a betting thread?

The drop in probability for Contador to win the Tour is very much concerned Contador, so I figured this was the right place to post it

 

[Jelantik]

Re: Re:

are we ready to panic yet? Well today, Contador got the ass beating by Froome. His attacked was absolutely lethal. Did he do 3 acceleration or something back to back? Only Porte can match him today. Contador today was in the level of Martin even Yates. Definitely he has his hand full for TDF for sure... It's kinda watching what's use to be: Andy vs Contador. Now, Froome is the Contador and Contador is Andy. No matter what Andy did, Contador has always have an answer for him. It's de ja vu. Tomorrow, I expect Froome will destroy everyone. Porte and Froome will battle out for the yellow.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

From 3,50 to 5,50.

And that is why those bettings odds mean nothing.
Was he likelier to win the tour yesterday than he is today? No. The outcome is fixed in time. The likelihood is fixed in time. Nothing that happens right now will chance that except for crashes and illness.
In short, nobody should care.

So you din't think it was more likely for Contador to win prior to the smackdown by Froome?

No, because the outcome is fixed in time. It just gave us some insight into what that outcome will probably be (the outcome might still be that Contador beats Froome - but as I said it has no relation with what happened today)

I disagree, but its a subject where we have different stances, so no point in discussing further altho there didn't seem to be any problem when Contador won the prologue and I posted the exact same, just that Contador went from 4,50 to 3,50.

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

From 3,50 to 5,50.

Isn't there a betting thread?

The drop in probability for Contador to win the Tour is very much concerned Contador, so I figured this was the right place to post it

We all saw what we saw, betting has nothing to do with it. Odds change by the minute. I doubt Alberto gives a crap .

 

[Red Rick]

Betting is a game of incomplete information. Now there's more information, so ofcourse the odds change. His chances of winning don't really.

 

[Miburo]

What were the odds of Leicester winning again?

There's still hope people

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

It's not like the Giro will be more prestigious just because it's the 100th edition tbh... I don't consider Sagan's Ronde victory any more prestigious than those of Cancellara or Boonen.

Milestones are always more important/memorable.

For example, if you asked me where Boonen's 100th pro win was, I could tell you immediately it was stage two at 2012 Paris Nice. If you asked me where Cavendish's 100th win was, I could tell you immediately it was stage 12 of the 2013 Giro.

But if you asked me where their respective 105th wins were, who the hell knows that?

Milestones are always more memorable, and as a result, increase the allure of winning the event.

 

[rune1107]

Guys, you are talking about next year like this season is already over. Alberto will not go down without a fight. Sure it wasn't perfect today, but at least he is getting some racing speed in his legs. There is still a month before the Tour hits the mountains, so he has some time to tune the intensity level of his training. I won't stop believing in him, only if he loses significant time on Arcalis.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Guys, you are talking about next year like this season is already over. Alberto will not go down without a fight. Sure it wasn't perfect today, but at least he is getting some racing speed in his legs. There is still a month before the Tour hits the mountains, so he has some time to tune the intensity level of his training. I won't stop believing in him, only if he loses significant time on Arcalis.

I have this feeling Sky will go *** with Landa and Poels already on the Aspin, the 6-7 last kilometres are hard enough and it has worked in the past - now he only has to decent 6 kilometres afterwards

 

[snccdcno]

Re:

What were the odds of Leicester winning again?

There's still hope people

5000/1, mind that's lower than the odds on valv.piti going a day without mentioning betting in some form on here

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

What were the odds of Leicester winning again?

There's still hope people

5000/1, mind that's lower than the odds on valv.piti going a day without mentioning betting in some form on here

Truth to be told, Im of the belief that an assessment of a certain rider's probability of winning x race is better through odds than on a incredible subjective forum

But I guess i won't be posting that anymore in this thread (only when they are lowered on Contador after a good performance). I'll leave SeriousSam to that.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Betting is a game of incomplete information. Now there's more information, so ofcourse the odds change. His chances of winning don't really.

Exactly that's what I was trying to say

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

What were the odds of Leicester winning again?

There's still hope people

5000/1, mind that's lower than the odds on valv.piti going a day without mentioning betting in some form on here

Guys, you are talking about next year like this season is already over. Alberto will not go down without a fight. Sure it wasn't perfect today, but at least he is getting some racing speed in his legs. There is still a month before the Tour hits the mountains, so he has some time to tune the intensity level of his training. I won't stop believing in him, only if he loses significant time on Arcalis.

Yeah, you can keep your hopes up until that inevitable smackdown on Arcalis let's see what happens tomorrow but right now it seems like he'd need a miracle to be competitive in the Tour

 

[portugal11]

Re:

What were the odds of Leicester winning again?

There's still hope people

Stop miburo, i'm getting more depressed with your comments

 

[rm7]

Well, it doesn't look good, does it? He was dropped quite easily, but the saddest part is that he was dropped by Porte, and was climbing with Dan Martin and Yates. They even managed to drop him at the end.

I will still repeat what i've said some time back - he's very bad at limiting his losses. He clearly got the form as he proved in the prologue, but age seems to have caught up with him regarding accelerations and bursts. Not that he's a diesel climber, but i've said a few times that he can't really drop people with single attacks anymore like he used to. When Froome does this accelerations, he should try not to go directly on his wheel, but up the pace and drag Froome in when he slows down. At least try it for once, because he gets beat badly every time this happens.

If it happens tomorrow, he'll loose a minute.

Other than that - i'm not writing him off yet. It seems like everybody knows that the 3rd week of the Tour will be the most important week, with the Olympics right after. To be fair, form wise he have shown that he got it in the prologue, but he's really missing the racing speed. I think age has caught up with him regarding this too.. he needs some time to get back up to speed. Remember Algarve earlier this year as well...

But still have my doubts that he'll ride with Froome and Quintana in the Tour.

 

[peloton]

Too bad, sad to see him dropped like that. Wonder if he's sick or something?

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

What were the odds of Leicester winning again?

There's still hope people

5000/1, to put that into context, the best price you can get on Cavendish winning the Tour at the moment is 3500/1

Contador is still only 4/1. They won't change his price much as im sure he will be much better in a few weeks.

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

What were the odds of Leicester winning again?

There's still hope people

5000/1, to put that into context, the best price you can get on Cavendish winning the Tour at the moment is 3500/1

Contador is still only 4/1. They won't change his price much as im sure he will be much better in a few weeks.

More odds? I thought there was a thread for that. Odds are for betting, otherwise they are irrelevant .

 

[rm7]

Re:

Too bad, sad to see him dropped like that. Wonder if he's sick or something?

He doesn't look sick at all, so we shouldn't be making stuff up. He just beat them a couple a days ago. Porte and Froome are improving faster than him, which probably means that they've been training more and more intensive. Not that it's a good or bad thing, because there still a month until the Tour, where a lot can happen. We've seen Contador has the base this year, so I don't think a 2013 will happen again.

This is why you do prep races a month before.

 

[BlurryVII]

Re:

I won't stop believing in him, only if he loses significant time on Arcalis.

Arcalis? No.. you won't have to wait that long, stage 2, murito final. If he's struggling there, it's good night.

Contador shows everywhere if he has the form or not, Tour 15', castastrophic opening TT, it was just a short flat one, we thought it doesn't mean anything, right? Next up, Mur de Huy, atrocious. Then another hard final, which Van Avermaet had won, Contador dropping back, dropped by Purito and someone else, all over the place on his bike.

Tour 13', same story in Corsica, dunno how many times I caught him dropping back in the peloton, tilting and grimacing for nothing, on a few unsignificant climbs.

Stage 2 will tell you if he's able to win the Tour 2016, I kid you not.

 

[markene2]

Have some faith, he will be fine in July.

Venga Alberto!

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

What were the odds of Leicester winning again?

There's still hope people

5000/1, to put that into context, the best price you can get on Cavendish winning the Tour at the moment is 3500/1

If enough people crash...

 

[Sciocco]

I still have faith. Season so far is less than 2014, but I think better than 2013 and 2015. Might do a long range attack on Sunday. Also should be good in the Tour ITTs and will win at least one.