He can win, becouse he would be in good condition. And he can lose, becouse sport is like this.
I think that an injury like this is just time out of bike. An injury like this dont bring your form down...it is a problem ig you are in a race with a cut or a hit, becouse the body waste energy in recovery that you need, and as well becouse sometimes you dont sleep well. But out of race, this is not a problem for that, a cold, yes, would be a little problem, becouse you are ill, but a cut it is not important... the problem is that three weeks out of the bike is not very good, but just two weeks would be good, so, it is not the perfect way, but the initial plan to ride Tour and Vuelta neither.
We talk about Alberto, another riders need more training for this.