Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Miburo]

Not really contador but since there are Saxo tinkov fans here Oleg had a half hour interview on Bloomberg last week. Only cycling comment was that contador would win all 3 gts. Talked about Russia and tinkov company mostly. Usual flamboyant controversial style with some controversial comments and most clearly, a total "I don't give a ****" attitude throughout.

I think it's pretty obvious that if Contador wins giro and tour, he'll go for the vuelta no matter what.

It's his 1 chance to do something that will probably never be done again. But it won't be easy at all.

I give him 15% to win both giro and tour.

 

[The Hitch]

I think it's pretty obvious that if Contador wins giro and tour, he'll go for the vuelta no matter what.

It's his 1 chance to do something that will probably never be done again. But it won't be easy at all.

I give him 15% to win both giro and tour.

I don't know. I think it would be seriously risking the entire rest of his career to go for the Vuelta and he will probably feel he has no chance for it.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I don't know. I think it would be seriously risking the entire rest of his career to go for the Vuelta and he will probably feel he has no chance for it.

Not sure he would have any years left in his career anyway!! If he wins Giro-Tour.

& I don't think Alberto ever feels he has no chance to win. You never know what happens, everyone else might crash out.

& I am confident Alberto has learned from his 2011 attempt, and he has the best possible support this year from his teammates and the team staff. I think he has a good chance to pull it off. Maybe 25%. I'd say Froome 50% Quintana 15% Nibali 10%. Based on pure strength. But I don't doubt for a second that Contador could pull a trick on Froome.

 

[ILovecycling]

Tour: Froome 35%, Quintana 30%, Nibali 15%

AC
Giro 90%
Giro+Tour 20%
GT Triple 5%

 

[The Hitch]

Giro 80%
Giro +tour 35%
Giro+tour +vuelta 0.1%

 

[Netserk]

Giro: 98%
Tour: 50%
Vuelta: 25%

So ~12% chance that he'll do the triple.

 

[Carols]

Giro 90%
Tour 50%
Vuelta .005%

The double will be fine .

 

[Afrank]

I don't know. I think it would be seriously risking the entire rest of his career to go for the Vuelta and he will probably feel he has no chance for it.

But what if he achieved it? It's a career maker far more then a career breaker. And it would guarantee him a spot in the cycling hall of fame (that is to say he would be forever remembered for it).

That being said Giro-Tour is already pretty dam hard, and probably too hard for the thought of doing the triple to be considered too much at this point.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Lol at some of these odds

Realistically:

Giro: 50%
Tour: 25%

Giro-Tour: 10%

 

[LaFlorecita]

Lol at some of these odds

Realistically:

Giro: 50%
Tour: 25%

Giro-Tour: 10%

Giro 50%?? Wtf??

No: Giro: 95%

 

[LaFlorecita]

Giro 80%
Giro +tour 35%
Giro+tour +vuelta 0.1%

Yeah Hitchy he definitely has a chance to win Giro-Tour

 

[Red Rick]

Thing with the Vuelta is that he should quit it as soon as its clear than he can't win. Simple as that, just drop out as soon as you can't win. Could be in the first week already. 2nd with only the parade to go? Don't start the last stage

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Giro 50%?? Wtf??

No: Giro: 95%

He definitely doesn't have more than 60% at the most. 95% is just trolling.

 

[Dr. Juice]

Giro 85%
Tour 35%
Giro + Tour 25 %
Triple 1 %

 

[The Hitch]

But what if he achieved it? It's a career maker far more then a career breaker. And it would guarantee him a spot in the cycling hall of fame (that is to say he would be forever remembered for it).

That being said Giro-Tour is already pretty dam hard, and probably too hard for the thought of doing the triple to be considered too much at this point.

Didn't Armstrong say he would in a heartbeat give up all the tours he already won just to win the next one?

Athletes dont want to be remembered from their couches as much as feel the glory of the win.

 

[The Hitch]

Giro: 98%
Tour: 50%
Vuelta: 25%

So ~12% chance that he'll do the triple.

So whether or not he completes the previous gts has no impact on his chances at the next?

 

[LaFlorecita]

He definitely doesn't have more than 60% at the most. 95% is just trolling.

I think saying that a cyclist, who has a track record of 8 GTs won out of 11 finished, has a 50% chance to win a GT with very little opposition is closer to trolling, honestly.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Didn't Armstrong say he would in a heartbeat give up all the tours he already won just to win the next one?

Athletes dont want to be remembered from their couches as much as feel the glory of the win.

But Alberto said that he wants to retire at the top. He does not have many years left. Why does it matter if trying the triple will burn him out at 36 instead of 38 when he's going to retire before 35?

I get the feeling he does not care much for winning anymore, he wants to try something special. So I doubt Alberto is like Lance.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think saying that a cyclist, who has a track record of 8 GTs won out of 11 finished, has a 50% chance to win a GT with very little opposition is closer to trolling, honestly.

Looking at GT's finished makes very little sense for obvious reasons. If we do go down that road of manipulating numbers, one could argue that giving him 50% chance of winning a GT is unreasonably high, considering he only won 1 of the last 3 he entered.

I'm aware that you are just exaggerating and don't seriously believe that AC has 95% chance of winning the Giro, but just take a look at what chances the bookmakers give him of winning, and I'm sure you'll be convinced that you are overrating his chances.

 

[Dr. Juice]

But Alberto said that he wants to retire at the top. He does not have many years left. Why does it matter if trying the triple will burn him out at 36 instead of 38 when he's going to retire before 35?

I get the feeling he does not care much for winning anymore, he wants to try something special. So I doubt Alberto is like Lance.

Lance cared only for the money and the fame (Tour= biggest race). He wanted to be regarded as the best by everyone including occasional viewers. And he was afraid to have someone outclimb him at the Tour hence no Giro and some calls to the UCI if necessary.
Alberto is a cycling fan. We wish diversity...different and difficult tasks...competition on all terrains...and he gives it to us...and to himself. He could have been a big cycling fan on this forum if he wasn't riding

And concerning age. Lance probably cared for the record books. 1 thing they both have in common : They want to retire at the top. But Lance did it because he was afraid of RoboBasso coming up. If there was only a decent chance he would be beaten - horror for him.

 

[Miburo]

Hitch is right, 80% is as far as you can go for the giro, maybe 85%

Of course he has no competition.

But he might crash, have a bad day or one of his competitors can have an amazing 3 week race.

Happened before, saying 98% for example is just ridiculous.

 

[Red Rick]

These number discussions are really pointless, more so at this point in the year, unless you were all considering betting your house on it.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Hitch is right, 80% is as far as you can go for the giro, maybe 85%

Of course he has no competition.

But he might crash, have a bad day or one of his competitors can have an amazing 3 week race.

Happened before, saying 98% for example is just ridiculous.

You are correct, as I mentioned earlier when posting my estimation for the TDF, I only base it on strength as the chances to crash out are very hard to estimate. Some years many GC favorites crash out, some years almost none (and always less in the Giro). I guess we could look at Alberto's results (1x crashed out in 12 GT starts)

But then he could get ill, get an untimely mechanical, etc etc etc. Which is why I look at the strength of the challengers. I will also always say "if they all stay healthy etc x and y should be the favorites"

 

[Hugo Koblet]

These number discussions are really pointless, more so at this point in the year, unless you were all considering betting your house on it.

I don't see why they are pointless. The fact that there is still 3½ month to go before the departure obviously makes it much more unlikely that he'll win, though, so you're right about that. And yes, some people here should really bet their house on AC winning the Giroif they truly believe he has like 80% chance of winning

 

[Jspear]

I don't see why they are pointless. The fact that there is still 3½ month to go before the departure obviously makes it much more unlikely that he'll win, though, so you're right about that. And yes, some people here should really bet their house on AC winning the Giroif they truly believe he has like 80% chance of winning

If I was a betting man then I would put a fair amount on him winning.