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The Hitch said:I don't know. I think it would be seriously risking the entire rest of his career to go for the Vuelta and he will probably feel he has no chance for it.
Hugo Koblet said:Lol at some of these odds
Realistically:
Giro: 50%
Tour: 25%
Giro-Tour: 10%
The Hitch said:Giro 80%
Giro +tour 35%
Giro+tour +vuelta 0.1%
LaFlorecita said:Giro 50%?? Wtf??
No: Giro: 95%
Afrank said:But what if he achieved it? It's a career maker far more then a career breaker. And it would guarantee him a spot in the cycling hall of fame (that is to say he would be forever remembered for it).
That being said Giro-Tour is already pretty dam hard, and probably too hard for the thought of doing the triple to be considered too much at this point.
Netserk said:Giro: 98%
Tour: 50%
Vuelta: 25%
So ~12% chance that he'll do the triple.
Hugo Koblet said:He definitely doesn't have more than 60% at the most. 95% is just trolling.
The Hitch said:Didn't Armstrong say he would in a heartbeat give up all the tours he already won just to win the next one?
Athletes dont want to be remembered from their couches as much as feel the glory of the win.
LaFlorecita said:I think saying that a cyclist, who has a track record of 8 GTs won out of 11 finished, has a 50% chance to win a GT with very little opposition is closer to trolling, honestly.
LaFlorecita said:But Alberto said that he wants to retire at the top. He does not have many years left. Why does it matter if trying the triple will burn him out at 36 instead of 38 when he's going to retire before 35?
I get the feeling he does not care much for winning anymore, he wants to try something special. So I doubt Alberto is like Lance.
Miburo said:Hitch is right, 80% is as far as you can go for the giro, maybe 85%
Of course he has no competition.
But he might crash, have a bad day or one of his competitors can have an amazing 3 week race.
Happened before, saying 98% for example is just ridiculous.
Red Rick said:These number discussions are really pointless, more so at this point in the year, unless you were all considering betting your house on it.
Hugo Koblet said:I don't see why they are pointless. The fact that there is still 3½ month to go before the departure obviously makes it much more unlikely that he'll win, though, so you're right about that. And yes, some people here should really bet their house on AC winning the Giroif they truly believe he has like 80% chance of winning
We agree again? Pointless is right. I'd add is Silly too!Red Rick said:These number discussions are really pointless, more so at this point in the year, unless you were all considering betting your house on it.
You, or anybody else has the right to speculate. IMO speculation is pointless...it's like "whatever" [put your favorite California girl voice].Hugo Koblet said:Can someone explain to me why it's pointless to discuss Contador's chances of winning the Giro in the dedicated Contador threat? Because I fail to see why