richwagmn said:
rhubroma said:
TheYouyou7 said:
Nibali will be smashed at Dauphiné.
Concerning Berto, I hope that he's been "far" from his best level in this Giro otherwise Tour is gonna be complicated.
My thoughts exactly, he'll have to step up his game considerably, or else he's gonna get clobbered in France. The question is can he do it?
On the other hand you had a tempo set at this Giro, with all that climbing that the Tour would find difficult to match. Astana was on fire and Aru, Landa and company were racing this Giro without "phase two" in mind.
I can only imagine that Alberto started the Giro at 80% and has come out of it with still a margin to gain for July. Otherwise, as you said, it will be complicated indeed.
LeMond thought Alberto would have no problem recovering in time. I know LeMond road a few Giros. I don't know if they were in his winning TDF years.
As for the TDF, it will indeed be complicated. There are four real contenders this year and several others who could cause problems. Most of the other teams (Astana, Movistar, Team Sky) have climbers who could stay with their leaders much longer. From what I've seen in the Giro, Saxo is sorely lacking compared to the other teams.
Also, might Sagan be a complication in the TDF? Will Sagan have to freelance his way to green or will Saxo dedicate some support to him?
If I remember correctly, Lemond finished 4th in the 86 Giro (but working for Hinault who won) and then won the Tour. Then he had a disastrous Giro in 89 (but came second on the last TT), and went on to win the Tour.
I think Contador can certainly recoveer, what I'm not certain about is can he improve at the same time. This is the risk anyone attempting the double faces. Getting the equilibrium right between not coming into the Giro too much on fire (perhaps like 2011, when, though, he hadn't planned for the double), and coming out of the Giro with enough of a margin to benefit from the Italian race for the French one.
Pantani was better at the 98 Giro, I think than Contador in this one, started the Tour decidedly under tone, to then get back up to flying in the second and third weeks.
Anyway you see it, it's complicated.