Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[malakassis]

seeing contador suffering in the mur made me sad. i hope he s just trying to peak for the 3rd week. but i doubt he will even reach top five this year. anyone who believe AC will still win is a dreamer. even if froome nibali and nairo crashed out, theres still fresher and younger guys. this lineup is just the best of the last 25 years.
the last guy who doubled was pantani in his best years. plus he wisely used a lucky situation of ulrich collaps. before it was miguel doubling in 92/93. the guy with the hugest engine in cycling and optimal biomechaniks. the odds for a lucky situation like in 98 are almost 0. and physikally AC is as mentioned before just weaker then before his ban. i hope noticing this situation forces him to make some unexpected blows like in 2012 vuelta fuente de.

 

[leon993]

C'mon guys. Race is still early. Do you remember in the old days? There it was normal to have one off day on a grand tour. This makes Contador's win in Giro absolutely normal. What was abnormal in the Giro, was that he won it alone, almost without any team support. Also in the old days it was said, that in a grand tour it was better being in your 30's than in your 20's. Who says he hasn't timed timed his form for 3rd week and that Froome has mistimed his form so he peaks in the first week. In this tour it also seems like a whole different TS team. So relax plz.

 

[cellardoor]

@rhubroma - I think you're misguided in thinking that there is a formula to doing the double that means you can turn up at the Giro and the Tour in perfect form, the same form as if you'd just targeted one or the other. Perhaps it was possible in the 90s, but that's a different era when being skeletal was not a pivotal factor. Losing that last KG that makes the difference between being skinny and being skeletal must be extremely difficult and require intense training and a very controlled diet. This is the exact opposite of what Contador needed after the Giro, he needed rest and to eat healthily so that his body could repair itself. In my opinion, there just isn't enough time between the Giro and the Tour to both recover and train at the intensity required to get to Froome level of fitness (esp. weight-wise). At the same time, I don't think it was an option to go into the Giro in peak form/weight and try to more or less hold it for the Tour - I mentioned before that I think he'd almost certainly get sick or injured being at such a low weight for so long, besides even considering the fact that he'd probably fade in the Tour. form-wise

At the beginning of the Tour, Tinkov commented that "it isn't fair that Contador is racing against guys that are fresh" before going on to say he still believes in Contador in a subdued manner. Throw-away comment? Personally, I read quite a lot into this and I believe that Contador and his team knew it just wasn't physically possible to be at 100% in the Tour and his training data leading up to the Tour showed that.

This doesn't mean he has no chance - I still believe he's in pretty good form and perhaps peak form will come in the 3rd week, maybe Froome will fade, maybe he can benefit from playing the stronger guys off against each other or other tactics.

Whilst Basso's attempts in 2005 and 2006 must provide useful data, we also have to remember they were both ultimately unsuccessful attempts. In 2005 he bonked heavily in the Giro at an early stage and was able to rest-up for all except one stage of the remainder of the race. In 2006 we just don't know what Basso would have done at the Tour - it seems to me that Basso peaked for the Giro and just hoped for the best at the Tour. But even in 05/06 I believe that illicit methods of recovery were available that are far more difficult today (I don't mean to imply they're saints today, but times have changed in terms of what you can and can't get away with).

One other thing to bear in mind when comparing this double attempt to Indurain and Pantani. Indurain and Pantani were head and shoulders above everyone else in their respective disciplines of TTing and climbing. They didn't need to be at 100% to still be the best at those disciplines. In particular, I've noticed that good TTers are often able to put in a good TT even when the form isn't great. Ullrich in the '06 Giro is a good example of that. On the other hand, I don't think Contador has ever been head and shoulders above his competition at either TTing or climbing. It's just that he's been one of the best at both and is sublime at eeking out a win one way or t'other.

 

[rhubroma]

Re:

@rhubroma - I think you're misguided in thinking that there is a formula to doing the double that means you can turn up at the Giro and the Tour in perfect form, the same form as if you'd just targeted one or the other. Perhaps it was possible in the 90s, but that's a different era when being skeletal was not a pivotal factor.

Losing that last KG that makes the difference between being skinny and being skeletal must be extremely difficult and require intense training and a very controlled diet. This is the exact opposite of what Contador needed after the Giro, he needed rest and to eat healthily so that his body could repair itself.

In my opinion, there just isn't enough time between the Giro and the Tour to both recover and train at the intensity required to get to Froome level of fitness (esp. weight-wise). At the same time, I don't think it was an option to go into the Giro in peak form/weight and try to more or less hold it for the Tour - I mentioned before that I think he'd almost certainly get sick or injured being at such a low weight for so long, besides even considering the fact that he'd probably fade in the Tour. form-wise

At the beginning of the Tour, Tinkov commented that "it isn't fair that Contador is racing against guys that are fresh" before going on to say he still believes in Contador in a subdued manner. Throw-away comment? Personally, I read quite a lot into this and I believe that Contador and his team knew it just wasn't physically possible to be at 100% in the Tour and his training data leading up to the Tour showed that.

This doesn't mean he has no chance - I still believe he's in pretty good form and perhaps peak form will come in the 3rd week, maybe Froome will fade, maybe he can benefit from playing the stronger guys off against each other or other tactics.

Whilst Basso's attempts in 2005 and 2006 must provide useful data, we also have to remember they were both ultimately unsuccessful attempts. In 2005 he bonked heavily in the Giro at an early stage and was able to rest-up for all except one stage of the remainder of the race. In 2006 we just don't know what Basso would have done at the Tour - it seems to me that Basso peaked for the Giro and just hoped for the best at the Tour. But even in 05/06 I believe that illicit methods of recovery were available that are far more difficult today (I don't mean to imply they're saints today, but times have changed in terms of what you can and can't get away with).

One other thing to bear in mind when comparing this double attempt to Indurain and Pantani. Indurain and Pantani were head and shoulders above everyone else in their respective disciplines of TTing and climbing. They didn't need to be at 100% to still be the best at those disciplines. In particular, I've noticed that good TTers are often able to put in a good TT even when the form isn't great. Ullrich in the '06 Giro is a good example of that. On the other hand, I don't think Contador has ever been head and shoulders above his competition at either TTing or climbing. It's just that he's been one of the best at both and is sublime at eeking out a win one way or t'other.

To some degree it has become historiographical commonplace to say you can't win the Giro and Tour in a year, that you can't be in top shape that, long etc. While recent history seems to indicate that this is indeed the case, diet and weight I think are the just two factors that need to be controlled in the utmost.

I don't agree, though, that the difference is as big as they make it sound between the 80's, 90's and today. Looking at Contador today and riders in the past who have done the Giro-Tour combo is a sign that somehow he miscalculated something. Rest and recovery are very important of course, but low caloric intake does not exclude a good recovery. Froome, with the exception of April, has carried very good form and very low body fat throughout. This is not the case with Contador, whereas last year he did and the results were appreciatively better. While his only chance at beating Froome in the mountains is to be as radical with his weight. The fact stands that he was too encumbered on the Mur yesterday and thus neither his form nor weight is optimal, in many respects, the two going hand in hand. Thus I don't think my thoughts have been misguided at all and, to the contrary, it was perhaps Contador who was misguided into thinking he could ease into the season and not be too concerned about a detail such as his weight before it's become too late.

Perhaps last year weighed on him. Perhaps to find that kind of form for him mentally was too much to replicate a second year at his age and for as long as he's been at the top. It seems to me that Froome is the more hungry and determined of the two in this regard, has got more will to perfection.

Hey I'd be the first to be happy if he proves me wrong, though I have seen no indications that this will be the case. To the contrary...

Of course there isn't a magical formula, but the "magic" happens when iron discipline meets with impecable preparation. If any formula has been wrong, then it lies not in going for this standard. Unfortunately, Tinkoff's remark is on the one hand misguided when we see Alberto's current physical status and, on the other, a cop-out, because he can't control those external varriables, but only Contador can bring to the table his very best preparation. I believe though this is what's come short.

 

[Miburo]

Rhubroma, i think people get you think Contador isn't impressive this year. You don't have to continue writing papers on it

 

[meat puppet]

in a sense taxus is right about the "new era", though for the wrong reasons (and which cannot be discussed further here). the new era is about weight. and in contador's case this never wanst about losing the last kilo but dropping five or more to become the skeleton that could actually stand up against froome. so a genuine physiological transformation would be required to match the demands today.

game be the game, and ac seems unwilling to play. his loss, really.

 

[rhubroma]

Re:

in a sense taxus is right about the "new era", though for the wrong reasons (and which cannot be discussed further here). the new era is about weight. and in contador's case this never wanst about losing the last kilo but dropping five or more to become the skeleton that could actually stand up against froome. so a genuine physiological transformation would be required to match the demands today.

game be the game, and ac seems unwilling to play. his loss, really.

Exactamundo...

 

[Brod710]

It's hard for me to remember any teeth gritting when Majka pulled. I thought he was not at the front because he was watching Nibali and/or Froome. Obviously Bertie himself sent Majka at the front and there was a reason behind it.
I don't think he felt bad because he not only tried to follow Froome, but also reacted to Piti before he blew up. Maybe he even was surprised that he cracked at that moment.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Contador doesn't HAVE to be as skinny as Froome. He has the height advantage. At 60kg, which is what I suspect was his weight last year, he is skinny but still does not look like a skeleton. For Froome, 65kg is a stretch, and he'd still be 5kg heavier than Alberto. There is absolutely no reason why Alberto should be 5kg lighter still. See last year, he could keep up with Froome and was only 1kg lighter than he his now, at most.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Besides, if Contador goes down to say, 55kg, he risks getting into Quintana/Pozzovivo/Purito territory, i.e. he'd become a pure climber and lose his ITT skill and he'd become even more vulnerable in classics type stages.

 

[Punkan]

Contador is 1.76m. Going down to 55 kg is just out the question. It wouldn't be healthy.

 

[Cimber]

Re:

Contador is 1.76m. Going down to 55 kg is just out the question. It wouldn't be healthy.

Since when are cyclist ever that (0: When I was riding in my younger days, and that was not pro level at all, I was 60-62 kg and am 183 cm tall (now, 15 years later I am 22 kg heavier than then )

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Contador is 1.76m. Going down to 55 kg is just out the question. It wouldn't be healthy.

Exactly, but that is what meat puppet is suggesting.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Contador is 1.76m. Going down to 55 kg is just out the question. It wouldn't be healthy.

Since when are cyclist ever that (0: When I was riding in my younger days, and that was not pro level at all, I was 60-62 kg and am 183 cm tall (now, 15 years later I am 22 kg heavier than then )

Yeah, but you have to remember cyclists have tonnes of muscle. To go down to a BMI of 17.7, keeping in mind the big muscle mass, is just out of question.

 

[Punkan]

Well, Contador is already skinny at 60-61 kilos. Taking 5 kilos out that is just nuts.

 

[hrotha]

Contador seems to be doing fine at his current weight. Even resorting to clinicky methods, the perfect balance between weight and power will be different for every rider, and Contador's performance has been up there with the best whenever he's tackled them without a starting disadvantage anyway, whether he won or lost. I mean, regardless of how he does it, it's undeniable that Froome is a very strong rider - of course Contador is not going to win against him every time.

It could well be that Contador has started his physical decline, too. The guy's not getting any younger. Fortunately, he has improved massively from a tactical point of view, so if he's no longer the strongest rider that can only be good news for neutral spectators. Froome is entertaining to watch because his racing is hilarious, but you can't picture him turning the race upside down.

 

[meat puppet]

There are at least two levels here. Performance wise precisely taking it to the extremes appears to be required to win now as the game has changed. Also being very light didn't seem to impair Hamilton's tt that much, for one, or Froome's, etc. Never said this is not insane, mind.

Ethically speaking I rather applaud athletes that are not playing along, but this is something I can afford as a mere spectator. So I'd rather the extreme weight loss competition was eliminated some way. But this is an "ought" statement and I presume it will not be eliminated but pushed further.

 

[bajbar]

I think Contador should fare better no cobbles today than last year. Last year he knew he was in awesome form and was very afraid to take any risks. This year though, he knows he won't win on brute strength (at least after yesterday) so I hope he will see the stage as an opportunity to gain time and not just a stage you have to survive.

 

[hrotha]

I'd be very surprised if that happened. Contador has always looked very uncomfortable on the cobbles (and maybe even on unpaved roads? Honestly I don't remember the 2011 Giro sterrato stage very well).

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

I think Contador should fare bettagono cobbles today than last year. Last year he knew he was in awesome form and was very afraid to take any risks. This year though, he knows he won't win on brute strength (at least after yesterday) so I hope he will see the stage as an opportunity to gain time and not just a stage you have to survive.

Yesterday he said he only want to survive. I hope not but it's very hard : he.couldn't follow others in a sprint two days ago....i can not see how he could attacks on cobbles

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Contador seems to be doing fine at his current weight. Even resorting to clinicky methods, the perfect balance between weight and power will be different for every rider, and Contador's performance has been up there with the best whenever he's tackled them without a starting disadvantage anyway, whether he won or lost. I mean, regardless of how he does it, it's undeniable that Froome is a very strong rider - of course Contador is not going to win against him every time.

It could well be that Contador has started his physical decline, too. The guy's not getting any younger. Fortunately, he has improved massively from a tactical point of view, so if he's no longer the strongest rider that can only be good news for neutral spectators. Froome is entertaining to watch because his racing is hilarious, but you can't picture him turning the race upside down.

And why he said always he has his best numbers now?

And why Purito, Valverde or Evans didint decline with 32, even with 35?

And why he has in his team for le Tour people as Basso (37) or Tossato (41) that as well rode the Giro, if you consider normal to decline phisically with 32?

Cheers!

 

[Miburo]

Re:

I'd be very surprised if that happened. Contador has always looked very uncomfortable on the cobbles (and maybe even on unpaved roads? Honestly I don't remember the 2011 Giro sterrato stage very well).

I remember that giro stage, he actually looked pretty meh especially at the end when scarponi went and contador seemed to struggle to close the gap.

In the tour 2010 stage he was pretty good though, he was held back by frank's crash and i saw images of him going past many riders. But if he gets cruished like andy he'll manage i think.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

I think Contador should fare better no cobbles today than last year. Last year he knew he was in awesome form and was very afraid to take any risks. This year though, he knows he won't win on brute strength (at least after yesterday) so I hope he will see the stage as an opportunity to gain time and not just a stage you have to survive.

He was very good when Frank Schleck crashed.

 

[hrotha]

Re: Re:

I remember that giro stage, he actually looked pretty meh especially at the end when scarponi went and contador seemed to struggle to close the gap.

In the tour 2010 stage he was pretty good though, he was held back by frank's crash and i saw images of him going past many riders. But if he gets cruished like andy he'll manage i think.

Thanks for the note on the 2011 sterrato!

As for the 2010 Tour, the impression I got is that he performed much better than expected, but he still looked mighty uncomfortable while doing so. When he was dropped from his group near the end he blamed it on a minor mechanical, but I have my doubts - perhaps he had just cooked himself a bit too much.

 

[rhubroma]

Re:

Contador doesn't HAVE to be as skinny as Froome. He has the height advantage. At 60kg, which is what I suspect was his weight last year, he is skinny but still does not look like a skeleton. For Froome, 65kg is a stretch, and he'd still be 5kg heavier than Alberto. There is absolutely no reason why Alberto should be 5kg lighter still. See last year, he could keep up with Froome and was only 1kg lighter than he his now, at most.

That wasn't the point. The issue is power to weight. Froome's obviously got it down pat, Contador not so much.

It seems that the older he gets, the more he has to mind his weight, which is physiologically normal. In fact last year he was where he needed to be and he was definitely leaner, that's all I'm saying.

Not knowing his actual weight, it's impossible to put a number on it. I suspect though that in today's cylcling one needs to have one's body get accustomed to being that lean (al là Froome) to maintain force and power so it would be rather difficult to do it in a month, which means it requires a sustained dietary rigor that Chris seems willing to put up with. Last year Contador's weight was lower from February onwards though, even saying that over that winter he "sewed his mouth shut". I suspect that he wasn't willing to do that again this year.