Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Jspear]

Just settle down everyone....after running some numbers I've figured out his physical and performance peak will take place in July of 2016. Case settled.

 

[SeriousSam]

After really running some numbers, namely how old TdF winners are, I'm afraid to say that Contador isn't a young man in a young men's game.

But it's not all bad. About 13% of all TdF winners have been 33 or older, after all. Which, funnily enough, falls into the range of probabilities the bookmakers give Contador to win next year.

 

[Velolover2]

But the point is that 33 in 2015 is not the same as 1955, SS.

The two top-scoring WT cyclists are in their mid 30's. And you have more riders over 30 winning races than ever.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yes, and based on your graph, there have been even fewer 31-year old winners than 33-year olds. How funny does this mean Contador has a higher chance of winning than Froome?

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

But the point is that 33 in 2015 is not the same as 1955, SS.

The two top-scoring WT cyclists are in their mid 30's. And you have more riders over 30 winning races than ever.

I was actually surprised to find that there is actually only mild evidence of an upwards trend over all years. Of course, in more recent years, there is strong evidence of the Tour winner getting older but that's mostly because Lance and Miguel kept winning it. Also interesting is that the range of winning age is getting smaller, if mainly from below.

The relevance of all this wrt Contador is of course limited, but this data gives an idea of what avg peak age is.

 

[Velolover2]

Alright, Sam. I was thinking GC in general. It seems there is a growing trend for riders over 30 (and often 35) to reach top 10 in Grand Tours.

 

[Beech Mtn]

Alberto, your whole thread is charts and graphs and talk of being past-it.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

Yes, and based on your graph, there have been even fewer 31-year old winners than 33-year olds. How funny does this mean Contador has a higher chance of winning than Froome?

If we ignore that the variable here is age and the bell-like shape, and if we only use this variable to think about the chance, then yes. If we don't ignore it's age and the shape, we kind of know that people are getting fitter and stronger as they get older until they each their athletic peak and things come down again. The bell-like shape of he data supports that common knowledge, as it does in all sports. Knowing that, we'd look at how far a rider is removed from the peak to determine who's more likely to win, and then Froome comes out as more likely.

But that's still ignoring everything but their age. It would have us conclude Gesink is more likely to win than Froome. We should take into account other information to fix this grave error in judgement and arrive at a more reasonable conclusion. Their track records, their career trajectories, their power numbers, their recent results, their schedules, their form, their team mates, information about how motivated they are, ... .

Thankfully we don't have to build a really complicated model that takes all that account, because other sports show that such models are still not as good as the bookmaker odds!

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

First, it was education in statistics, which takes specific classes in post-secondary institutions. Second, that was not a statement, but a question. Seriously, EOT

Indeed, I have no education in statistics. In fact, in school, we could choose between 3 levels of math, I chose the one that did not include statistics but rather more abstract, complex problems. So I will readily admit I don't know much about statistics, however I do know that if 6 31-year olds won the Tour, and 7 33-year olds, statistically, ignoring everything else and purely going by those numbers, a 33-year old winner is more likely. My post wasn't trolling, it was meant as a tongue-in-cheek post to show that those statistics don't tell the whole story.

 

[Velolover2]

Do you think that cyclists who have been on the top for a long period of time age faster, SS? That racing age differs from the biological age. That would make Contador 5 years older than Froome in terms of "racing at the top age".

It could also explain the fall of Andy Schleck.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Re: Re:

If we ignore that the variable here is age and the bell-like shape, and if we only use this variable to think about the chance, then yes. If we don't ignore it's age and the shape, we kind of know that people are getting fitter and stronger as they get older until they each their athletic peak and things come down again. The bell-like shape of he data supports that common knowledge, as it does in all sports. Knowing that, we'd look at how far a rider is removed from the peak to determine who's more likely to win, and then Froome comes out as more likely.

But that's still ignoring everything but their age. It would have us conclude Gesink is more likely to win than Froome. We should take into account other information to fix this grave error in judgement and arrive at a more reasonable conclusion. Their track records, their career trajectories, their power numbers, their recent results, their schedules, their form, their team mates, information about how motivated they are, ... .

Thankfully we don't have to build a really complicated model that takes all that account, because other sports show that such models are still not as good as the bookmaker odds!

Careful, last year I posted that Contador was on the downward trajectory based on CQ point/ racing day and that 2014 was a bit of an outlier based on the larger trend. Your excellent analysis will likely fall on many deaf ears.

 

[Ramon Koran]

Re: Re:

First, it was education in statistics, which takes specific classes in post-secondary institutions. Second, that was not a statement, but a question. Seriously, EOT

Indeed, I have no education in statistics. In fact, in school, we could choose between 3 levels of math, I chose the one that did not include statistics but rather more abstract, complex problems. So I will readily admit I don't know much about statistics, however I do know that if 6 31-year olds won the Tour, and 7 33-year olds, statistically, ignoring everything else and purely going by those numbers, a 33-year old winner is more likely. My post wasn't trolling, it was meant as a tongue-in-cheek post to show that those statistics don't tell the whole story.

You are missing the main point, riders best years are 26-30 that is what the graph is showing outside that it is unlikely to win less percent slow decline before and after like a bell. Of course irregularities occur 33 win more 31 bit that is just a irregularities not generally. You need to see it as bell peaking 28-29 and going down either side. Of course though this is just general statistics and hard to apply to individual.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

First, it was education in statistics, which takes specific classes in post-secondary institutions. Second, that was not a statement, but a question. Seriously, EOT

Indeed, I have no education in statistics. In fact, in school, we could choose between 3 levels of math, I chose the one that did not include statistics but rather more abstract, complex problems. So I will readily admit I don't know much about statistics, however I do know that if 6 31-year olds won the Tour, and 7 33-year olds, statistically, ignoring everything else and purely going by those numbers, a 33-year old winner is more likely. My post wasn't trolling, it was meant as a tongue-in-cheek post to show that those statistics don't tell the whole story.

Fun fact, the only 33+ year old to win the Tour between WWII and 1996 was Zoetemelk, and only because almost everyone else was injured.

Then in the 90s and 2000s it suddenly became common to win as a 33+ year old

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

First, it was education in statistics, which takes specific classes in post-secondary institutions. Second, that was not a statement, but a question. Seriously, EOT

Indeed, I have no education in statistics. In fact, in school, we could choose between 3 levels of math, I chose the one that did not include statistics but rather more abstract, complex problems. So I will readily admit I don't know much about statistics, however I do know that if 6 31-year olds won the Tour, and 7 33-year olds, statistically, ignoring everything else and purely going by those numbers, a 33-year old winner is more likely. My post wasn't trolling, it was meant as a tongue-in-cheek post to show that those statistics don't tell the whole story.

Fun fact, the only 33+ year old to win the Tour between WWII and 1996 was Zoetemelk, and only because almost everyone else was injured.

Then in the 90s and 2000s it suddenly became common to win as a 33+ year old

Maybe because anything aged. In 1991, Sean Kelly was the oldest rider at 35. Today there are more than 60 pros (if we include pro-conti) over the age of 35. And over 200 riders older than Contador.

 

[Red Rick]

Reason that careers are longer are largely explained clinically, and also a bit by better training methods and stuff like that

 

[LaFlorecita]

Enric Mas of the U23 Specialized- Fundacion Contador team signs for AWT Greenway team, he is their third rider to sign for them after Alvaro Cuadros two years ago and Kenny Molly a few weeks ago.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

It's all cool and stuff, but I'm more worried about Contador being passed his prime.

If he's not and he's abke to reach 2014 lvl then we are in for a great tdf. Still I doubt it.

How can a man be passed his prime when he destroyed everyone in 2014 and we're now only at the end of 2015? Makes no sense.

We'll see I guess.

That's a bad argument. I want your reasoning for thinking it, if it's just a feeling from you well can't argue that but objectively it makes no sense

Because Contador didn't blow me away this year like last year. That could be because he was trying to spread his peaks or it could be because he's declining. He has been at the top for very long. Some riders are capable to stay at the top for their entire careers, while others decline rather fast. Well if Contador declines now that's still certainly not fast.
Either way, you can discuss this all you want, but this is indeed most of all based on a feeling I got.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

It's all cool and stuff, but I'm more worried about Contador being passed his prime.

If he's not and he's abke to reach 2014 lvl then we are in for a great tdf. Still I doubt it.

How can a man be passed his prime when he destroyed everyone in 2014 and we're now only at the end of 2015? Makes no sense.

We'll see I guess.

That's a bad argument. I want your reasoning for thinking it, if it's just a feeling from you well can't argue that but objectively it makes no sense

Because Contador didn't blow me away this year like last year. That could be because he was trying to spread his peaks or it could be because he's declining. He has been at the top for very long. Some riders are capable to stay at the top for their entire careers, while others decline rather fast. Well if Contador declines now that's still certainly not fast.
Either way, you can discuss this all you want, but this is indeed most of all based on a feeling I got.

I sometimes wonder about Contador fans

I am neither a fan of Contador nor Froome nor Quintana and yet a fan of all 3
There is no doubt that the Giro 2015 was one of the hardest races in a long while and many rider who rode it attested to this
Also Contadors team was poor to say the least. They were no where in the mountains while Contador had 3 and soem times 4 Astana riders to contend with,especially talents like Aru & Landa not to mention he dislocated his shoulder and yet he still managed to win (including an exception MT TT only 14 seconds behind the world champion). After which he went on the ride 5th in the Tour. To say that is not exceptional is to totally miss the point.

I honestly think that if all in form there will be very little between the top 3 riders. Sky have the strongest team (which no matter what other say will include Landa) and Quintana is the purest climber but Contador can only win if Tinkoff whips the team inc Majka into a dedicated and focused machine. When Froome will have Landa, Poels,etc chasing in the Alps Contador will need top riders especially if he is in yellow and SKY are attacking. Gone are the days he can do it alone.

 

[Red Rick]

'Allegedly', Contador suffered from allergies during the Giro.

IF that's true, it's a rather poor indication of decline

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

'Allegedly', Contador suffered from allergies during the Giro.

IF that's true, it's a rather poor indication of decline

He does that a lot. Bjarne said that it was the background for his poor 2013 season and spoke about it in the Giro as well, Whether to believe that or not, I dont know, I have a hard time believing it is the whole reason

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

'Allegedly', Contador suffered from allergies during the Giro.

IF that's true, it's a rather poor indication of decline

He does that a lot. Bjarne said that it was the background for his poor 2013 season and spoke about it in the Giro as well, Whether to believe that or not, I dont know, I have a hard time believing it is the whole reason

It is probably not the whole reason, but I thought it was quite interesting that the two stages he looked strongest at the Giro (stage 12 muro finish, stage 14 ITT), were rainy days (= less pollen in the air)

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

'Allegedly', Contador suffered from allergies during the Giro.

IF that's true, it's a rather poor indication of decline

He does that a lot. Bjarne said that it was the background for his poor 2013 season and spoke about it in the Giro as well, Whether to believe that or not, I dont know, I have a hard time believing it is the whole reason

It is probably not the whole reason, but I thought it was quite interesting that the two stages he looked strongest at the Giro (stage 12 muro finish, stage 14 ITT), were rainy days (= less pollen in the air)

Yup, that part is consistent at least.

And he never planned to be 100%, but that's been mentioned so many times imma stfu about it, : :l

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

But the point is that 33 in 2015 is not the same as 1955, SS.

The two top-scoring WT cyclists are in their mid 30's. And you have more riders over 30 winning races than ever.

I was actually surprised to find that there is actually only mild evidence of an upwards trend over all years. Of course, in more recent years, there is strong evidence of the Tour winner getting older but that's mostly because Lance and Miguel kept winning it. Also interesting is that the range of winning age is getting smaller, if mainly from below.

The relevance of all this wrt Contador is of course limited, but this data gives an idea of what avg peak age is.

My take on why the line trend is up.
1- Armstrong and co (90's and 00's) helps to put that line in an upward trend. Clinic stuff involved.
2- The key thing to note is that it takes several years for a new comer nowadays to win it. To develop their legs. Something that did not happen in the past. Now is very hard for a new comer to win the Tour at first. Clinic stuff might help in this respect.

 

[Carols]

Man sure as heck looks lean for the off season to me

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/tinkoff-saxo-riders-gather-in-croatia-gallery/

 

[LaFlorecita]

For fans living near or in London, Alberto will attend the Rouleur Classic on 19 November

http://rouleurclassic.cc/reportage/2015-10-28-join-alberto-contador-at-the-rouleur-classic