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He certainly could challenge Nibali on top form. But, Nibali in Italy is a very difficult proposition. He's got an incredible record in the Giro, stage races and also one day races in Italy. If Contador's looking for an easy win to pad out his palmares, peaking for the Vuelta would be the better bet imo. Contador wouldn't beat Nibali at the Giro if he only has the same shape as he had in 2015.IMA said:DFA123 said:He hasn't won a Tour de France stage for seven years, and has only won three in his whole career. It would be a decent achievement if he could win a couple more. Certainly better than finishing 5th or 6th in the GC, which would be the alternative. Of course, it's not so easy to win TdF stages, so there is a decent chance he would come away from the Tour with nothing, but he would still have good shape for the Vuelta if he doesn't fight for GC.IMA said:DFA123 said:I'd like to see Contador try a change of approach next season. Ride the Tour as a stage hunter, building toward a super peak for the Vuelta. It's a waste of time him peaking for the Tour and trying to do well in the GC there, because he can't challenge Froome and Quintana there. And it's been a very long time since he even won a stage there, so that would be something good to aim for. Then he can come into the Vuelta with top shape, hopefully win that if Froome and Quintana are on their way down after the Tour. Perhaps he could even hold the peak then to challenge for Milan-Torino or even Lombardia.
If he tries to peak for the Tour again, he won't win anything.
Contador as a stage hunter............Maybe he should just aim for Algarve...
Before doing that he´d do Giro-Vuelta.
But do you really think that Alberto became a champion with a loser mentality? He´s not Virenke nor Basso. He´s a f****** legend ffs.
It's not a question of having a loser's mentality, it's about being realistic about your ability relative to the rivals. If he goes to the Tour he can't win against Froome and Quintana on top form, and he probably wouldn't do well in the Vuelta after fighting a hard GC battle in the Tour.
Giro would be another good option as long as Nibali doesn't show up. But, instead of padding out his palmares with possible GC podiums against weak fields and taking week long stage races that no-one else is peaking for, I'd prefer him to try to broaden his palmares a bit. Challenge for some one day races or start stage hunting.
I think you´re taking for granted that he´s not going to reach a decent shape anymore, like for example he did in the Giro ´15. And with that shape, he´d probably had beaten Nibali in the last Giro. I wonder what you said in August ´13 about Contador. I bet you thought he would never be competitive again. If he puts a few things in the right place, things won´t look that bad as now. Some people forget that with a team beside him he´d had won Paris-Nice, Volta and Itzulia...and that only happened a few months ago. You cannot do that being a washed up.
I´m not saying that he´ll be at the level he was in 2014, that´s very unlikely tbh. But i wouldn´t be so confident to asseverate that he cannot fight Nibali a GT.
You overrate, as many others, Nibali. All his GT wins were against rivals like Mosquera, Urán, Peraud and Chaves. That doesn´t mean too much to me.
And not even when he was in his prime was good enough to win one day races. His chances now are even lower than then. Would be a waste of time.