Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[hulkhogansknees]

Re: Re:

But you fail to realise Contador essentially have 1 chance to win, where as a sprinter has 10. So despite Degenkolb is worse relatively to his competitors, he will still have better chances. Its simple math.

So following this logic, Sky would be better off bringing Vivani instead of fx. Nieve, since Viviani has 10 shots to grab a win while Froome only has 1?

 

[TheYouyou7]

Re: Re:

Are all of you guys seriously suggesting that Contador has bigger possibilities to win OVERALL than Degenkolb has of fluking a stage win somewhere along this horribly designed, sprinter-friendly route? I know he isn't impressive, but come on. Thats just.. yeah.

Yes. In my opinion, contador is the third most likely winner and degenkolb has at least 5 sprinters better than him (and I'm not counting cav). Degenkolb won't have a team supporting him, many sprinters like demare, kittel, greipel, sagan will...

But you fail to realise Contador essentially have 1 chance to win, where as a sprinter has 10. So despite Degenkolb is worse relatively to his competitors, he will still have better chances. Its simple math.

Your math skills seem quite fragile, it's not the number of chances alone you get that is relevant you have to balance with the probaility that it will happen.IMO, his probability of winning a stage is 0.001 (basically every serious contender crashes) which gives us a probaility of 0.01 of winning at least one stage in this Tour.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

The best way for Trek to ride a good Tour is to check if Contador is up for it and if he isn't go for breakaway stages while Contador desperately tries to get away with something acceptable for himself.

This basically.
Like I said, Degenkolb can be part of the team if he does the sprints solo and is happy to help Berto when it's necessary.
As Berto is guided safely (we hope) to the 3km to go mark Degenkolb could sit on his wheel and then he'll have to do it alone, he can latch onto another train. But we can't have him take 1 or even 2 domestiques. And he must help Berto like Sagan in 2015.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

But you fail to realise Contador essentially have 1 chance to win, where as a sprinter has 10. So despite Degenkolb is worse relatively to his competitors, he will still have better chances. Its simple math.

So following this logic, Sky would be better off bringing Vivani instead of fx. Nieve, since Viviani has 10 shots to grab a win while Froome only has 1?

No. As I said, Im arguing over someone said Contador has greater chances of winning overall than Degen has of fluking a stage somewhere, not necessarily what the team should look like.

That said, Degenkolb will obviously be selected. Contador isn't the top-favourite and with his TdF-history in mind, it obviously makes a lot of sense to select Degen.

 

[buchanan]

Trek need other options and should definitely take Mollema and Degenkolb imo. Contador isn't really a favourite for the overall these days, so it would be silly for Trek to pin all their hopes on him. Especially with his track record of crashing in the Tour. Should he crash out or fail to perform, at least Mollema can maybe go for a high overall or a stage win. Degenkolb can perhaps compete for a stage win too if things go his way. The days of building a team only for Contador should be over.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

But you fail to realise Contador essentially have 1 chance to win, where as a sprinter has 10. So despite Degenkolb is worse relatively to his competitors, he will still have better chances. Its simple math.

So following this logic, Sky would be better off bringing Vivani instead of fx. Nieve, since Viviani has 10 shots to grab a win while Froome only has 1?

No. As I said, Im arguing over someone said Contador has greater chances of winning overall than Degen has of fluking a stage somewhere, not necessarily what the team should look like.

That said, Degenkolb will obviously be selected. Contador isn't the top-favourite and with his TdF-history in mind, it obviously makes a lot of sense to select Degen.

This is so obviously true, not sure how anyone can seriously claim otherwise. Also, as much as we hate it as fans, teams do really care about UCI points and placings. Even if he doesn't win, Degenkolb will rack up loads of top 5s and top 10s.

If anything Degenkolb is the rider that Trek most have to keep happy as well. Contador's probably retiring within the next 12 months or so; Degenkolb, on the other hand, is their long term replacement for Cancellara. They will do what it takes to keep him happy.

 

[hazaran]

The german classics winner not at the german Tour start? You guys are deluding yourself :lol:

Contador will get a few scraps of team support and some climbing if Mollema feels like it because frankly nobody can tell if the guy will still be there by stage 5 and frankly his challenge will be staying in the top 10 after stage 5.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Ouch. Rolled my eyes so hard reading the last few posts I'm not sure I'll ever recover.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re:

The german classics winner not at the german Tour start? You guys are deluding yourself :lol:

Contador will get a few scraps of team support and some climbing if Mollema feels like it because frankly nobody can tell if the guy will still be there by stage 5 and frankly his challenge will be staying in the top 10 after stage 5.

Contador's challenge will be finishing in top 10 in TDF? And we are the ones who are deluded? :lol:
Dege looked horrible in Suisse and there are many sprinters who are better than him in pure sprint stages. Also in Rodez and Longwy; riders like Sagan, GVA, Matthews, Gilbert should be better.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The german classics winner not at the german Tour start? You guys are deluding yourself :lol:

Contador will get a few scraps of team support and some climbing if Mollema feels like it because frankly nobody can tell if the guy will still be there by stage 5 and frankly his challenge will be staying in the top 10 after stage 5.

Contador's challenge will be finishing in top 10 in TDF? And we are the ones who are deluded? :lol:
Dege looked horrible in Suisse and there are many sprinters who are better than him in pure sprint stages. Also in Rodez and Longwy; riders like Sagan, GVA, Matthews, Gilbert should be better.

But it's not an 'either... or' situation. Contador will have Pantano and Mollema for the mountains. Then the rouleurs on the flat will do the dual role of helping Contador if he needs to defend GC, and helping Degenkolb on stages he's targeting.

It would be crazy to leave Degenkolb at home - seriously pissing him off - just to add another not very good climber/rouleur to help Contador defend a yellow jersey which he will most probably never hold.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

The german classics winner not at the german Tour start? You guys are deluding yourself :lol:

Contador will get a few scraps of team support and some climbing if Mollema feels like it because frankly nobody can tell if the guy will still be there by stage 5 and frankly his challenge will be staying in the top 10 after stage 5.

Contador's challenge will be finishing in top 10 in TDF? And we are the ones who are deluded? :lol:
Dege looked horrible in Suisse and there are many sprinters who are better than him in pure sprint stages. Also in Rodez and Longwy; riders like Sagan, GVA, Matthews, Gilbert should be better.

But it's not an 'either... or' situation. Contador will have Pantano and Mollema for the mountains. Then the rouleurs on the flat will do the dual role of helping Contador if he needs to defend GC, and helping Degenkolb on stages he's targeting.

It would be crazy to leave Degenkolb at home - seriously pissing him off - just to add another not very good climber/rouleur to help Contador defend a yellow jersey which he will most probably never hold.

I agree that Trek should make Dege happy because after Contador's retirement he will be the best rider of the team and if he reaches his 2015 form he has a big chance of winning at least 1 monument every year.

 

[LaFlorecita]

You think Contador will only get 2 doms assigned to him? LOL
He'll have 5 at least. Then most likely Degenkolb gets De Kort and another rouleur gets a dual role.
Still, he should have 8 like all other GC contenders.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

You think Contador will only get 2 doms assigned to him? LOL
He'll have 5 at least. Then most likely Degenkolb gets De Kort and another rouleur gets a dual role.
Still, he should have 8 like all other GC contenders.

Porte doesn't, Greg will obviously be in there and be supported on the few stages he can win. BMC will probably also add Dennis to their roster as well to win the maillot jaune even tho Dennis won't contribute with as much as another rouleur/better climber or whatever. Valverde/Quintana don't either, thats a little up in the air how that plays out, so its basically only Froome who have 8 teammates fully dedicated to win the Tour.

Its just so shortsighted to claim Contador should have 8 whole fully dedicated teammates with everything taken into consideration and frankly, fanboyish and a bit ignorant.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

You think Contador will only get 2 doms assigned to him? LOL
He'll have 5 at least. Then most likely Degenkolb gets De Kort and another rouleur gets a dual role.
Still, he should have 8 like all other GC contenders.

I think for a stage that Degenkolb targets, he will have several domestique available to him. De Kort, Felline, Brandle and whoever else the rouleurs are will work with him in the lead out. Then they'll work with Contador on the stages where he needs help. I think only Pantano and Mollema will be told to save themselves completely on all the flat stages. Similar to the last couple of years when several riders split their support between Contador and Sagan.

There's 11 flat stages. Trek aren't just going to write off over half the race, by leaving their star sprinter without any reasonable support.

 

[LaFlorecita]

What does Degenkolb need 5 domestiques for? Surely if he needs anything at all, it's someone to guide him though the final km's. Trek aren't going to be chasing down the break. That's up to the sprinters' teams.

Also, obviously the stages that Degenkolb will target are the stages Contador needs most help. So your argument doesn't hold any water anyway.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

What does Degenkolb need 5 domestiques for? Surely if he needs anything at all, it's someone to guide him though the final km's. Trek aren't going to be chasing down the break. That's up to the sprinters' teams.

It's normally called a lead out train. Sprinters use four or five guys to get them in the best possible position ahead of the sprint. If you just have one rider, then there's a much greater chance of getting boxed in or crowded out as the other teams come crashing through in the final 2km. One rider clearly isn't enough; they will either have to go long and below the necessary power, or go at the correct power but for a too short duration when up against a proper train - either way it won't work. Degenkolb is already a disadvantage given that he is slower than some other sprinters, so he needs all the support he can get.

Brandle, Felline and De Kort looks a pretty nice train. A good mix of strength and top end speed.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Degenkolb won't get a leadout train, because the rouleur(s) - probably just Brändle plus Gogl, Felline as allrounders - will be assigned to protecting Contador on the flat stages.
Degenkolb will get De Kort and will latch onto other trains. He won't win a stage, but neither will he with 5 domestiques supporting him.

 

[sacrifice&hardwork]

I'm always amazed at how those who don't like Alberto - looking at you Val.Piti and DFA123 (don't matter if you claim otherwise) - come here with such authority and comment things as if they're gospel. Seriously, it's frustrating reading the same thing from you guys over and over again. Anyways, seeing as how you guys clearly don't know, Degenkolb is going to the Tour but he'll only get De Kort who both will be force to work for Alberto. It's not clear if Brändle will even be pick but it's between him and Zubeldia for the spot.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I'm always amazed at how those who don't like Alberto - looking at you Val.Piti and DFA123 (don't matter if you claim otherwise) - come here with such authority and comment things as if they're gospel. Seriously, it's frustrating reading the same thing from you guys over and over again. Anyways, seeing as how you guys clearly don't know, Degenkolb is going to the Tour but he'll only get De Kort who both will be force to work for Alberto. It's not clear if Brändle will even be pick but it's between him and Zubeldia for the spot.

Who are they taking as a rouleur if not Brändle? Rast? Irizar? One is at least one too few anyway.

 

[Valv.Piti]

It has absolutely nothing to do with disliking Contador or whatever you are trying to spin it. I just called all those out who actually think that Contador is more likely to win the Tour than Degenkolb is winning one single stage. Its not even close.

Anyways, I don't dislike Contador at all. I just dislike his fans.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

It has absolutely nothing to do with disliking Contador or whatever you are trying to spin it. I just called all those out who actually think that Contador is more likely to win the Tour than Degenkolb is winning one single stage. Its not even close.

Anyways, I don't dislike Contador at all. I just dislike his fans.

Quoted for truth.

I can imagine the conversion now:

Degenkolb: Hi boss, I'm really up for the stage today. My legs feel great, it's a slight uphill finish after a lumpy finale and Sagan had to dig really deep yesterday. Just give me Brandle, Feline and De Kort int he final 5km and I think I can challenge for the win.

Trek DS: No sorry, we need Brandle and Felline to protect Contador.

Degenkolb: What do you mean? Can't one of the other four or five guys do that? And anyway, he can't follow his team-mates wheel.

Trek DS: No sorry, we have to protect him, because he has a 15/1 chance of winning this race.

Degenkolb: Sure, but it's the first week, everyone's fresh and he's already two minutes behind Froome. Just give me Felline, Brandle and De Kort for the last 5km.

Trek DS: No, can't do. Contador needs seven guys to protect him on this gently rolling run in. You're on your own.

Degenkolb: Hi, is that Astana? Are you looking for a new sprinter?

 

[sacrifice&hardwork]

Re: Re:

I'm always amazed at how those who don't like Alberto - looking at you Val.Piti and DFA123 (don't matter if you claim otherwise) - come here with such authority and comment things as if they're gospel. Seriously, it's frustrating reading the same thing from you guys over and over again. Anyways, seeing as how you guys clearly don't know, Degenkolb is going to the Tour but he'll only get De Kort who both will be force to work for Alberto. It's not clear if Brändle will even be pick but it's between him and Zubeldia for the spot.

Who are they taking as a rouleur if not Brändle? Rast? Irizar? One is at least one too few anyway.

Good question. None of those mentioned above. With Pantano, Brändle, and Felline getting sick in Suisse; it complicated things a bit. But my guess: Contador-Mollema-Pantano-Cardoso-Felline-Degenkolb-De Kort-Zubeldia



At Val.Piti: Whatever you say. I'm not even referring to this situation anyways. I'm not new here so I've seen and read your work before. And not all fan are like "that" so please don't generalize and anyways, I've seen worse *cough* Quintana fans

 

[Forever The Best]

Dege should go to the Tour but he should only have 1 or 2 people assigned to him. And Contador has more chances of winning the Tour than Dege winning a stage. Mind you, chances of Contador winning the Tour are very low but chances of Dege winning a stage is even lower.
Also I'd prefer Brandle to Zubeldia or Cardoso because Contador needs some rouleurs to keep him safely on the flat stages.

 

[Ricco']

Re: Re:

It has absolutely nothing to do with disliking Contador or whatever you are trying to spin it. I just called all those out who actually think that Contador is more likely to win the Tour than Degenkolb is winning one single stage. Its not even close.

Anyways, I don't dislike Contador at all. I just dislike his fans.

Quoted for truth.

I can imagine the conversion now:

Degenkolb: Hi boss, I'm really up for the stage today. My legs feel great, it's a slight uphill finish after a lumpy finale and Sagan had to dig really deep yesterday. Just give me Brandle, Feline and De Kort int he final 5km and I think I can challenge for the win.

Trek DS: No sorry, we need Brandle and Felline to protect Contador.

Degenkolb: What do you mean? Can't one of the other four or five guys do that? And anyway, he can't follow his team-mates wheel.

Trek DS: No sorry, we have to protect him, because he has a 15/1 chance of winning this race.

Degenkolb: Sure, but it's the first week, everyone's fresh and he's already two minutes behind Froome. Just give me Felline, Brandle and De Kort for the last 5km.

Trek DS: No, can't do. Contador needs seven guys to protect him on this gently rolling run in. You're on your own.

Degenkolb: Hi, is that Astana? Are you looking for a new sprinter?

We are looking here at some serious *** talk.

First, even if Sagan had to dig really deep the day before (on the first week, have you had a look at the profiles?) he would beat Degenkolb's ass 9 out of 10 times. And if not Sagan, on a lumpy finale, Van Avermaet or Gilbert would beat Degenkolb easily too. On a flat finish? Greipel, Kittel, even Cav will do better than Degenkolb. Btw, have you seen how Degenkolb is riding recently?

Second, if Contador is 2 minutes behind Froome on the first week, he surely won't bother to be always at the front of the bunch on the flat stages.

And that's it. And I'm not a Contador fan, so I'm not bothered by your attacks at Contador and his fans. What annoyed me was the stupid ideas that were on the post.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

It has absolutely nothing to do with disliking Contador or whatever you are trying to spin it. I just called all those out who actually think that Contador is more likely to win the Tour than Degenkolb is winning one single stage. Its not even close.

Anyways, I don't dislike Contador at all. I just dislike his fans.

Quoted for truth.

I can imagine the conversion now:

Degenkolb: Hi boss, I'm really up for the stage today. My legs feel great, it's a slight uphill finish after a lumpy finale and Sagan had to dig really deep yesterday. Just give me Brandle, Feline and De Kort int he final 5km and I think I can challenge for the win.

Trek DS: No sorry, we need Brandle and Felline to protect Contador.

Degenkolb: What do you mean? Can't one of the other four or five guys do that? And anyway, he can't follow his team-mates wheel.

Trek DS: No sorry, we have to protect him, because he has a 15/1 chance of winning this race.

Degenkolb: Sure, but it's the first week, everyone's fresh and he's already two minutes behind Froome. Just give me Felline, Brandle and De Kort for the last 5km.

Trek DS: No, can't do. Contador needs seven guys to protect him on this gently rolling run in. You're on your own.

Degenkolb: Hi, is that Astana? Are you looking for a new sprinter?

So in your opinion lightweight climbers should be the ones to protect Contador on the flat stages because Degenkolb needs 3 more guys to boost his chances of winning any particular stage from 0.5 to 1%? You can't seriously think this is reasonable?