Ardennes Classics Discussion thread

[Ryaguas]

Well since all semi-favorites are winning these days:

AGR: 1. Paul Martens 2. Bjorn Leukemans 3. Alexandre Kolobnev
Fleche Wallone: 1. Jelle Vanendert 2. Enrico Gasparotto 3. Cadel Evans (comes too late0
LBL: 1. Alexandre Kolobnev 2. Wout Poels 3. Philippe Gilbert (also too late)

Enrico is a very good bet for AGR but FW is too steep for him... but his form is totally unknown... He didnt do anything in Pais Vasco
Leukemans is a very good bet also He is in a very good form!

 

[theyoungest]

Martens will win because everyone will be afraid of Gesink's formidable sprint up the Cauberg?

Seriously, it's not very often that you get a well-represented group that also cooperates in the Ardennes.

Apart from Voigt and Vino and Fleche 03 i don't really remember (relatively) early breakes making it to the end.

Gesink will be the one that tries to get away, Martens is the one who has to save himself for the sprint. He said last year that he could have done what Hesjedal did: not show himself all day and then get a podium at the end.

There's also Freire, but TBH I'd give Martens more of a chance than him.

 

[dlwssonic]

Are you guys ready for the rising of a new star, the rising of the great pretender, GREG VAN AVERMAET!!!!

 

[hrotha]

What about Luisle

Anyway, I'm pleased with all the talk about Gesink, Martens and Van Avermaet for AGR. And I might add Poels just because (although I don't even know if he's riding).

 

[dlwssonic]

if im not wrong did van avermaet mention that he was aiming for amstel gold. The race really suits him and he is a fast finisher maybe he can do something on the cauberg

 

[theyoungest]

What about Luisle

Anyway, I'm pleased with all the talk about Gesink, Martens and Van Avermaet for AGR. And I might add Poels just because (although I don't even know if he's riding).

Poels is definitely riding, it's his home race as he's from the Limburg province.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Are you guys ready for the rising of a new star, the rising of the great pretender, GREG VAN AVERMAET!!!!

I have been tipping Greg for this race since December last year. I am putting it on the line, if he is having a good day at Amstel, he WILL win (at least podium). I like his chances in Brabantse Pijl on wednesday.

 

[Winterfold]

F-W: I think I get Contador's 'didn't attack from far enough out' comment now - I guess he thinks the way to beat Cuddles and similar riders is to set a higher but not totally explosive tempo from further out than Evans can sustain and blow him up before the end, as he doesnt think he can match Evans strength on the really steep bit at the end of the Mur, or at least thinks it is less risky to go long.

So blow him away aerobically, because anaerobically Evans is very hard to beat.

 

[dlwssonic]

I have been tipping Greg for this race since December last year. I am putting it on the line, if he is having a good day at Amstel, he WILL win (at least podium). I like his chances in Brabantse Pijl on wednesday.

Yes this race really suits him and hes a fast finisher too, he is certainly the most attacking and exciting rider in BMC can't wait for him to get his big break, really reminds me of gilbert.

 

[auscyclefan94]

F-W: I think I get Contador's 'didn't attack from far enough out' comment now - I guess he thinks the way to beat Cuddles and similar riders is to set a higher but not totally explosive tempo from further out than Evans can sustain and blow him up before the end, as he doesnt think he can match Evans strength on the really steep bit at the end of the Mur, or at least thinks it is less risky to go long.

So blow him away aerobically, because anaerobically Evans is very hard to beat.

He'll blow himself up doing that. How far out will he have to do that from? He pretty much did what you said last year and Evans caught up and blew right past him in the finish.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Di Luca was already heavy doping then.

Meh, but so was Boogerd most probably

 

[El Pistolero]

Meh, but so was Boogerd most probably

If Boogerd could sprint he would've been the best hilly classics specialist in modern times lol.

But yeah, you don't get second after VDB while being clean.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Mind you Boogerd wasn't a slow sprinter. I spent years trying to explain that.

He was usually just unlucky there was always a faster guy with him. But in a sprint with 5 or even 50 men, he still finished 2nd or 3rd. F.ex that Zürich that Flecha won in a 50 men sprint.

Boogerd was never slow (well except for his last 2 years, 2006 and 2007), but just not fast enough against those Italians

And yes, he could've won 13 World Cup classics if he had a better sprint, looking at his results.
But, he didn't. So there.

 

[dlwssonic]

F-W: I think I get Contador's 'didn't attack from far enough out' comment now - I guess he thinks the way to beat Cuddles and similar riders is to set a higher but not totally explosive tempo from further out than Evans can sustain and blow him up before the end, as he doesnt think he can match Evans strength on the really steep bit at the end of the Mur, or at least thinks it is less risky to go long.

So blow him away aerobically, because anaerobically Evans is very hard to beat.

Dont think that would work against Evans who rides a really high tempo but is not so explosive so contador should ride an explosive tempo and get evans off his wheel

 

[The Hitch]

Cunego didnt look half bad yesterday

Di Luca was already heavy doping then.

So were a lot of people.

 

[Winterfold]

Dont think that would work against Evans who rides a really high tempo but is not so explosive so contador should ride an explosive tempo and get evans off his wheel

The key words are aerobic vs anaerobic IMO

Evans is very strong and can take the pain of a very steep anaerobic effort better than anyone - so beat him earlier so he cannot catch you up with a balls out effort - I think you mean the same as me but have used different words to describe it.

 

[Ferminal]

Sorry to say it ACF, but I can't see Greg beating Phil up the Cauberg. Happy for him to prove me wrong though.

The big guns will need to be on the attack consistently over the last 30km to try and weaken Lotto and isolate Gilbert, get him tired before the finish. I seem to remember last year being quite eventful in this area, but it didn't work in the end.

It's good having Greg there for the finale, but they will need to use Evans aggressively to create gaps, force the chase etc. As will the others like Frank & Andy, Ivanov, Kolobnev, Vino, Gesink, Martens, Hoogerland etc.

Maybe Lampre will use Cunego in that same role, as Bole is almost as good an option for the finish as the Prince himself.

 

[Peyote]

AGR: Van avermaet, Gilbert, Kolobnev
FW: Evans, Contador, Purito
LBL: Gilbert, Evans (if he rides), Vino

Yes!! This please

I really want Van Avermaet to win something.

 

[dlwssonic]

seems like everyone wants van avermaet to win

 

[boomcie]

Mind you Boogerd wasn't a slow sprinter. I spent years trying to explain that.

He was usually just unlucky there was always a faster guy with him. But in a sprint with 5 or even 50 men, he still finished 2nd or 3rd. F.ex that Zürich that Flecha won in a 50 men sprint.
...

Yeah he's also lightening fast!

Edit: also, what does this have to do with Boogerd?

 

[theyoungest]

Rabobank released their Amstel squad today:

Carlos Barredo, Oscar Freire, Robert Gesink, Paul Martens, Grischa Niermann, Luis Leon Sanchez, Bram Tankink, Maarten Tjallingii.

Same old story: a lot of strong riders, but none of them will win.

 

[hrotha]

Yeah he's also lightening fast!

Flecha isn't slow, and when he was younger he was quite fast. The problem is that, as a cobbles rider, he routinely has to duck it out with semi-sprinters, and inevitably loses. It was the same with Boogerd, always beaten by those uphill finishers.

 

[Winterfold]

He'll blow himself up doing that. How far out will he have to do that from? He pretty much did what you said last year and Evans caught up and blew right past him in the finish.

See the last bit, and what I said above.

Its the same as you said - the Mur is not Angliru

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah he's also lightening fast!

Edit: also, what does this have to do with Boogerd?

Yeah I mixed up with the edition that Nardello won and Boogerd was 4th
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=8337
Only Bettini sprinted faster.

And there are more results like that one, especially in his early years (before he turned 30+)... lots of time 2nd/3rd in a sprint of a group of 10/15/20
Never the winner though.
--> not slow, but not fast enough to win.

 

[dlwssonic]

hmm do the schlecks have any chance of winning agr?