Armstrong's Options

[the delgados]

couldn't he come clean without making any excuses? the more he resists, smears his former friends and colleagues, and hides behind his cancer foundation, the more he looks like a total piece of st
limit your losses, armstrong. fess up. get robert shapiro and johnny cochran and cut a deal

Johnny Cochrane won't be much help.

He's dead.

 

[Merckx index]

lets not forget they couldn't even prove Barry bonds lied

Greg Anderson went to jail rather than talk. We already know at least four riders who have information on LA about as damaging as Anderson had on Bonds, and who will not go to jail for LA. Not to mention the 99 samples, the Tour de Suisse, and who knows what else may come out.

Many differences between the Bonds case and this one. One that is relevant here is that cycling is much more of a team sport. There is no evidence that MLB teams organized doping, with managers encouraging if not compelling their key players to take PEDs. Bonds did this on his own, his teammates may have been highly suspicious of him, but it’s not as though they were watching each other shoot up in the locker room. When evidence gets down to things like hat size and impotence, you know that the prosecution is a little desperate for eye witness testimony.

I think the general consensus here is that the information revealed on 60 Minutes is enough to go on, but it really is not. Quite possibly it could be just the tip of the iceberg.

Definitely. 60 minutes was mostly about Tyler, and let’s remember, Novitzky et al didn’t exactly ask Tyler to go on TV. I don’t discount the possibility that the feds selectively leaked some info to CBS, but they would be fools not to hold most of their cards. They don’t want key witnesses contradicting what they said in the GJ, and as you note, they’re happy to keep LA in limbo, unable to respond until he knows exactly what they have on him.

 

[Road Rage]

This would be the route the Feds would want him to take imo.
"Fight it Lance - we dare you. Double dare you. 20 dares/indictments you"
Thats Job security for the Feds. Years and years of taxpayer paid paychecks for the Feds.

Right, because the FDA and DoJ will close their doors without an LA prosecution.

 

[DirtyWorks]

Armstrong has no idea what the Feds have in hand, and it's that uncertainty that's going to make him cut a deal. It's a poker game at this point, imo, and his only choices are to hope that the other guy is bluffing and try to tough it out or to fold. But considering the potential consequences of being wrong about the other guy bluffing, my guess would be that he's going to fold.

My understanding of the way a Grand Jury works, Wonderboy's team gets a list of the GJ's charges and some opportunity to discuss them with the GJ. My understanding suggests that he can plea a deal right there and nothing gets published.

Like another post said, he's got to wait. He's lied to so many people and broken laws over so many years he's got to wait and see what they have before he can consider an apology strategy. I'd like to see a perp walk, but I'm not positive it will happen.

Wonderboy's team is at their absolute weakest until they know what the GJ has. So, the rest of you cheaters and liers via Armstrong should give us a Hincapie-style summary of your GJ testimony, or get an appointment with the GJ NOW.

 

[riobonito92]

Unfortunately, the never tested positive claim has resonance with the general public, who have a naive faith in forensic science (because they don't care to understand it). In other words, never tested positive equates to never doped and has more power than all the eye-witness testimony in the world.

If that line is breached then it really is all over but I bet that Armstrong and his team still believe they can hold to it.

They probably believe the 1999 samples will never be admissable as evidence and that the latest revelations about the TdS can be made to go away.

Even giro raids on the team hotel help their case (most tested team, they searched and found nothing, Popo was the most suspected rider so they investigated him and found nothing etc etc)

 

[Dave_1]

it takes a majority of 12 out of 23 jurors to vote true bill or not a true bill. Why are all of you so sure this vote will go your way? LA is right to hold out for now..it may yet go away. I believe the jury might end within the next 6 months-they usually last 18 months but can be extended to 2 years.

 

[VeloCity]

it takes a majority of 12 out of 23 jurors to vote true bill or not a true bill. Why are all of you so sure this vote will go your way? LA is right to hold out for now..it may yet go away. I believe the jury might end within the next 6 months-they usually last 18 months but can be extended to 2 years.

I don't think Armstrong's going to take the chance. IMO he'll cut a deal for immunity in exchange for his testimony, as I really don't think Armstrong (or Bruyneel or the USPS management etc) are Novitzky's primary targets - think it goes well beyond them. But Armstrong probably has a lot of very interesting info that the Feds would like to know.

I'm also starting to think that having Landis and Hamilton go public and "leaking" Hincapie's testimony is all strategy on the part of the Feds, to put so much pressure on him (Armstrong) that he caves as well. Sort of letting him have a sneak preview of what they've got on him.

Could be totally wrong too

 

[ksmith]

Quite.

If he was a rational human being he'd realise that the Hincapie / T de S cover up disclosures are a complete game changer & he needs to go into damage limitation mode immediately. However, as we all know he's an arrogant egotist & will probably continue with his increasingly ludicrous 'deny everything' tactics.

If I were advising him I'd tell him to ditch the ridiculous Fabiani, get himself a serious criminal law practitioner & think about cutting a deal (massive fine, suspended sentence) if & when he is charged.

I wonder if any of his ex commercial partners go after him for breach of contract? If they do he could find his bank balance severely depleted

David Walsh indicated in his Sunday Times article yesterday that News Corp will be revisiting the 2006 libel settlement in the light of this investigation.

Herewith the Judgement by way of a recap:-

http://www.bailii.org/cgi-bin/marku...html&query=Lance+and+Armstrong&method=boolean

Wouldn't SCA Promotions also be interested in having a revisit as well. This could start getting expensive for Lance, to say nothing of perjury.

 

[Adamastor]

Armstrong has lots of options but the best is probably to stay on course and make them prove their case. 10 year old data and evidence is the only thing Lance has going for him.

Hahaha good one. The 10 year evidence has been handed over by AFLD to Novitzky, 6 positive B samples. FDA labs won't care about how to handle those, but answer 2 simple questions:

1) whose pee is it?
2) does the pee indicate EPO usage?

Regards

P.S. Explain "stay on course"...

Option 1, 2, or 3 presented by this thread.

What else?

 

[Allen H]

I'm also starting to think that having Landis and Hamilton go public and "leaking" Hincapie's testimony is all strategy on the part of the Feds, to put so much pressure on him (Armstrong) that he caves as well. Sort of letting him have a sneak preview of what they've got on him.

Could be totally wrong too

It's essentially the same MO the Feds tried in the Bonds perjury case - try him in the court of public opinion through gand jury testimony leaks. Didn't work, though, because the only eye witness they had (Greg Anderson, Bonds' trainer) refused to testify.

 

[patrick767]

If Armstrong is found guilty, the people talking about him going to jail are almost certainly dreaming. Don't put any money on it. We're talking about a US trial for white collar crimes with high powered defense attorneys sure to be involved. I'd expect fines and that's about it.

Moving away from the legal penalties, I can't see penalties from pro cycling happening. What are they going to do? Take away his TdF jerseys when, as has been shown from a look at podium positions, almost everyone who finished on the podium below him from 1999 to 2005 is a doper? Who would be crowned the winner? Hell, if we believe Hamilton's words on 60 Minutes recently, "everyone" was doing it.

They probably believe the 1999 samples will never be admissable as evidence

They very well might be right about that. We won't know unless it goes to trial.

 

[VeloCity]

It would really help if we knew what Novitzky was actually going after. I think it's only fair that he tell the Clinic at least.

 

[patrick767]

Hahaha good one. The 10 year evidence has been handed over by AFLD to Novitzky, 6 positive B samples. FDA labs won't care about how to handle those, but answer 2 simple questions:

1) whose pee is it?
2) does the pee indicate EPO usage?

And you don't think the grand jury and later the trial court will care about proof of chain of custody/access to those samples or anything else the defense tries to bring up to challenge the samples' validity? Hint: They will. They may or may not buy the defense arguments, but it will be relevant.

 

[Oldman]

I don't think Armstrong's going to take the chance. IMO he'll cut a deal for immunity in exchange for his testimony, as I really don't think Armstrong (or Bruyneel or the USPS management etc) are Novitzky's primary targets - think it goes well beyond them. But Armstrong probably has a lot of very interesting info that the Feds would like to know.

I'm also starting to think that having Landis and Hamilton go public and "leaking" Hincapie's testimony is all strategy on the part of the Feds, to put so much pressure on him (Armstrong) that he caves as well. Sort of letting him have a sneak preview of what they've got on him.

Could be totally wrong too

I for one think you are right. Mix misuse of Federal or charitable funds (yes, that charity) and someone upstream of Lance that helped plan it is on the hook for RICO level charges. Think who those smart guys might be and what other baggage they are packing?

 

[masking_agent]

As much as I'd like to see he take a fall, and bring down the UCI in the process. I don't think it will happen. The way this is unfolding from Novitzky's case, and then once again, another "he said, she said" from Tyler, without "hard evidence," I he'll lawyer up and then skate like OJ did. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[thehog]

As much as I'd like to see he take a fall, and bring down the UCI in the process. I don't think it will happen. The way this is unfolding from Novitzky's case, and then once again, another "he said, she said" from Tyler, without "hard evidence," I he'll lawyer up and then skate like OJ did. I hope I'm wrong.

What? A signed letter from the former head of the Lausanne lab wasn't proof?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Assuming that DZ, JV, Levi, Jemison and others all told the truth, a truth similar to TH, GH and others, then he has quite the uphill battle. This isn't compared to the Bonds case where one guy went to jail for him, and the feds still almost got him.

I think LA will stay firm and wait for an indictment, and see what's in it, and how to proceed. Then he has two general options:

1) If it is filled with numerous counts, and revealed that numerous people testified to his doping, and all seem to be consistent, I would think Lance's attorneys would be looking to broker a plea deal, and hopefully help feed the UCI to international courts, making them a bigger fish. This would allow Lance to stay out of prison, give a mea culpa along the lines of Tyler "we all doped, I'm sorry. But the sport is rotten and facilitated it. Had no one doped and the UCI really tried to stop it, instead of encouraging it, I would have never doped." This will of course send up a howl of protest, and he will lose a great deal of respect, and money, but still have a tiny bit of face with the most hardcore fans, and attempt in some way to keep his cancer fighting going, after much time passes.

2) But if the indictment is filled with enough cracks, let's say several riders and staffers, are quoted as saying they never saw any doping, and that they saw or heard FL, TH, even GH say negative things about Lance, and there are few bank/tax/money trails linking to doping, they could consider trying to drag this out as long as possible, and either hope for an acquittal, or strike a lesser deal at the last possible moment before the jury in the trial goes out. This would still be pretty damaging to his reputation. But he could try to spin his way out of it in the public opinion over time.

I'd say the chances of him either walking completely free, or getting back to where he was in the public eye a few years ago where people think those who complain about him are bitter and jealous, and he's the one telling the truth, are over.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Is going down to the beach and having a few beers still an option?

 

[Aleajactaest]

2) But if the indictment is filled with enough cracks, let's say several riders and staffers, are quoted as saying they never saw any doping, and that they saw or heard FL, TH, even GH say negative things about Lance, and there are few bank/tax/money trails linking to doping, they could consider trying to drag this out as long as possible, and either hope for an acquittal, or strike a lesser deal at the last possible moment before the jury in the trial goes out. This would still be pretty damaging to his reputation. But he could try to spin his way out of it in the public opinion over time.

I'd say the chances of him either walking completely free, or getting back to where he was in the public eye a few years ago where people think those who complain about him are bitter and jealous, and he's the one telling the truth, are over.

Do his lawyers get all the testimony including the people who don't support the charges? I don't know how that works.

In any case, I can't see him doing anything until he knows what the GJ says.

 

[Adamastor]

Is going down to the beach and having a few beers still an option?

Yeah...that's option 1, remember?

 

[riobonito92]

How about

After I became ill and returned to the sport I was unaware of what had been happening in my absence. I was given some substances by my team management, although I didn't really know what they were for. After the Tour de Suisse I was informed there was a problem with one of the team's samples. I was invited to a meeting with someone from the lab and the UCI. As a rider, I didn't really understand what was being said. In fact, I didn't really listen at all. After that, I was careful not to take anything unless I knew exactly what it contained. I knew I must be clean because I never failed a dope test. In fact, I became so mad about doping that I gave some money to the UCI to buy a machine . . . I was aware that other members of my team were doping but, since I was determined to ride clean, I looked the other way. . .

 

[MacRoadie]

I was aware that other members of my team were doping but, since I was determined to ride clean, I looked the other way. . .

...and it didn't matter to me that, in a true "team sport", all the riders on my team tasked with assisting me in my wins, pacing me up climbs, chasing down competitor's attacks, etc. were all doping"

 

[Fausto's Schnauzer]

How about

After I became ill and returned to the sport I was unaware of what had been happening in my absence. I was given some substances by my team management, although I didn't really know what they were for. After the Tour de Suisse I was informed there was a problem with one of the team's samples. I was invited to a meeting with someone from the lab and the UCI. As a rider, I didn't really understand what was being said. In fact, I didn't really listen at all. After that, I was careful not to take anything unless I knew exactly what it contained. I knew I must be clean because I never failed a dope test. In fact, I became so mad about doping that I gave some money to the UCI to buy a machine . . . I was aware that other members of my team were doping but, since I was determined to ride clean, I looked the other way. . .

"...AND I've done a lot of good for a lot of people."

 

[Cimacoppi49]

Armstrong has lots of options but the best is probably to stay on course and make them prove their case. 10 year old data and evidence is the only thing Lance has going for him.

Possibly. If I were his attorney, I'd be exploring with the AUSA on the investigation whether or not Armstrong is the big fish they want as opposed to Thom Weisel. I think he can still get a deal, but he's going to have to admit to a number of felony offenses and do time. He'll be sent to a prison with a golf course, but it will still be prison. The more profound long term issue for Armstrong is forfeiture of assets and restitution. He will have to make a major financial concession to SCA.

I don't see him walking out of prison with much more than chump change and a bus ticket. So, while his attorney will at some point explore a possible deal, it will be a very difficult plea for him to swallow--so much so that he'll probably take his hubris to court. I'll bet he even testifies at his trial.

 

[Cimacoppi49]

How about

After I became ill and returned to the sport I was unaware of what had been happening in my absence. I was given some substances by my team management, although I didn't really know what they were for. After the Tour de Suisse I was informed there was a problem with one of the team's samples. I was invited to a meeting with someone from the lab and the UCI. As a rider, I didn't really understand what was being said. In fact, I didn't really listen at all. After that, I was careful not to take anything unless I knew exactly what it contained. I knew I must be clean because I never failed a dope test. In fact, I became so mad about doping that I gave some money to the UCI to buy a machine . . . I was aware that other members of my team were doping but, since I was determined to ride clean, I looked the other way. . .

LOL!! Thanks. I needed a side splitter today.