Bernal vs. Pogacar vs. Evenepoel

[hayneplane]

Don't forget Yates.

I had

 

[Big Doopie]

It's getting pathetic really. In 2018, when Remco was about to sign for Axel, it was "incredible, he might be better than me. I think he is better than me". Remco doesn't sign for for Axel "Remco hasn't proven anything". Every. Two. Months. OG Eddy is Reddy for the retirement home.

And Merckx, since retiring, has made a series of really stupid comments about cyclists. He is as on target as Wiggins was declaring throughout the TT that Roglic was just about to turn on the power and beat Pog. And his declarations at the height of the epo/blood doping era were, quite frankly, utterly disappointing. Merckx is definitely a case of the man not living up to the champion (and I was a huge fan as a kid).

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

And Merckx, since retiring, has made a series of really stupid comments about cyclists. He is as on target as Wiggins was declaring throughout the TT that Roglic was just about to turn on the power and beat Pog. And his declarations at the height of the epo/blood doping era were, quite frankly, utterly disappointing. Merckx is definitely a case of the man not living up to the champion (and I was a huge fan as a kid).

Yup. Still waiting for Gilbert and van der Poel to win the Tour de France, which he also predicted.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

And Remco needs to make a full recovery firstly. Hopefully he does, but it's not a guarantee (unless others have positive updates about his rehabilitation?).

So far so good, for the moment no complications, meaning they still assume he'll make a full recovery.

 

[Eli]

The term "OLD FARTS" is really cracking me up

 

[perico]

It's not a guarantee but it is a clear indicator that the potential more than likely is there, especially if you do it over and over again. There is always a chance he won't be able to do it in a 3 week race but that feels like wishful thinking to me.

At this rate, he might even reach the level of hype and sure thing as The Great Bauke Mollema.

 

[memyselfandI]

Well, I would've considered him the favorite for the Giro based on what I've seen before, but this Tour has been an entirely different level. Evenepoel has a very high base level along with an ITT that enables him to pick off small stage races as if taking candy from a baby, but he'll need to be up there in the high mountains with the likes of Pogacar for 3 weeks if the latter is gonna TT like this.

I think Evenepoel has been running bit hot, same way as Hirschi was at the Tour (boldness and cheeky type of behaviour imho made him fall when in escape group with Kawasaki and Carapaz) It's kinda understandable in young athletes when they enter WT/GT first time and team maybe gives them free role to test some legs and if they have those legs and skillset they eager to show it. But you need kool head too as gt's are so long above anything else. In this light I think Pogi and Bernal are bit more calm and calculating, of course Bernal did not first and foremost had legs this time.

But looking back I think it would not been taking a candy from a baby for Evenepoel in this Tour. Or Giro. But we don't know. Let's hope he recovers well and we may see. It's going to be such a fight and I'm shure DQS can serve nice team if they decide so.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well, I would've considered him the favorite for the Giro based on what I've seen before, but this Tour has been an entirely different level. Evenepoel has a very high base level along with an ITT that enables him to pick off small stage races as if taking candy from a baby, but he'll need to be up there in the high mountains with the likes of Pogacar for 3 weeks if the latter is gonna TT like this.

That ITT from Pogacar is... Let's call it "worrying", for Evenepoel. I don't know if Pog rode the time trial of his life, or if this is going to be common for him. I think Evenepoel would have given him a run for his money, judging by van Aert's result, but he wouldn't have put any time on Pogacar either.

 

[Red Rick]

That ITT from Pogacar is... Let's call it "worrying", for Evenepoel. I don't know if Pog rode the time trial of his life, or if this is going to be common for him. I think Evenepoel would have given him a run for his money, judging by van Aert's result, but he wouldn't have put any time on Pogacar either.

I don't think outlying performances like that tend to become the standard for a rider. Also it was the perfect storm with the ITT finishing on top of a steep Cat 1.

 

[Oldermanish]

I don't think outlying performances like that tend to become the standard for a rider. Also it was the perfect storm with the ITT finishing on top of a steep Cat 1.

That finish hill totally suited Tadej. That, and being slightly (or much) fresher was key. Not sure how a young rider can manage to keep his head that long into a GT, tactically.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

You youngsters....you don't think the old farts won't figure out how to beat them? GT racing is about 3 weeks, not just TTs. If a "traditional route" with 2 long tts were the deal we could "assume" Dumo would have won this Tour in retrospect. Evenepoel is hurt and recovering. Bernal is shocked and, hopefully rethinking who he listens to on preparation. Pogacar has a target on his back and will be punished for his success like every winner. If he has a good team he will still be there but he can't count on the JV free ride next time.
It'll be all new next season.

Just as I suspected, people really didn’t understand the magnitude of what Remco had been doing before he crashed.

This rhetoric that he had’t done anything in a GT is silly seeing as he hasn’t even started one so we don’t know what he is capable of at this point.

What we do know is that Pogacar didn’t finish second in the World ITT at 19. Pogacar didn’t win his first classic win at age 19. He didn’t have 51km solo breakaway win in his first WTT event.

Pogacar won Algarve at 20 beating Wout Poels. Remco won Algarve at 20 while setting a record climbing Alto de Foia and beating the World Champion in an ITT.

You are putting way too much faith in Dumoulin as a TTer. The guy nearly quit cycling. Top 10 top 5 TTers atm, which is still strong, but he’s not in the same league as Dennis or Evenepoel in TTing.

The real shame is That we are missing out on a Dennis Evenepoel WC ITT rematch.

 

[Oldermanish]

Just as I suspected, people really didn’t understand the magnitude of what Remco had been doing before he crashed.

This rhetoric that he had’t done anything in a GT is silly seeing as he hasn’t even started one so we don’t know what he is capable of at this point.

What we do know is that Pogacar didn’t finish second in the World ITT at 19. Pogacar didn’t win his first classic win at age 19. He didn’t have 51km solo breakaway win in his first WTT event.

Pogacar won Algarve at 20 beating Wout Poels. Remco won Algarve at 20 while setting a record climbing Alto de Foia and beating the World Champion in an ITT.

You are putting way too much faith in Dumoulin as a TTer. The guy nearly quit cycling. Top 10 top 5 TTers atm, which is still strong, but he’s not in the same league as Dennis or Evenepoel in TTing.

The real shame is That we are missing out on a Dennis Evenepoel WC ITT rematch.

This isn't rhetoric; it's experience. The first big race is the easiest to win. The next time you'll need to work harder/smarter and have a better team, possibly. My comparisons were based on hypothetical ideals, not reality. Reality is when good racers get hurt. Really good racers go for the money and end up with lesser support and find out how good they really are. You seem to think Remco is capable of anything; would he have won this Tour riding for Arkea? UAE?
JV? It's all a guess and next year will be different. Ask Greg Lemond after he got shot.

 

[ppanther92]

Just as I suspected, people really didn’t understand the magnitude of what Remco had been doing before he crashed.

This rhetoric that he had’t done anything in a GT is silly seeing as he hasn’t even started one so we don’t know what he is capable of at this point.

No, its not silly. Undeniably there is some uncertainty about his recovery. This might very well be a non-issue but we simply don't know for now. That concept of uncertainty potentially leading to surprising outcomes shouldn't really be that hard to grasp.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So how is the future/present Big3 going?

Pogacar added LBL (and a few other races) to his cabinet and is bookies' TdF favourite.
Bernal is back to full powers and is in the driving seat for his second GT victory.
Evenepoel is yet to prove his GT credentials (possibly at the Vuelta) but this Giro is an important experience.

I'm sticking with my prediction (Big3 to win a half (or more) of GTs in 2020s). Soon it will likely be 2/4.

 

[Red Rick]

Don't know what I predicted, but I'll say now that Evenepoel will win the least GTs of the 3.

 

[BlueRoads]

Next year Ethan Hayter will win the Tour, Foss the Giro, Pidcock the Vuelta and Cian the Baby Giro with 5 minutes and you will all say you always knew Tadej was overrated, Bernal too vulnerable and Evenepoel a one-trick-pony...

 

[frisenfruitig]

As it stands right now Pogacar has the best cards in his deck to win the most GTs. He seemingly doesn't have any weaknesses. Bernal on the other hand is very limited when it comes to TTs which will cost him against more complete riders. Evenepoel still needs to show what his full potential might be, Pogacar is already there. God help us all if he's still going to get stronger

 

[HelloDolly]

Pogacar and Bernal are proven GT winners ...they dont need to do anymore to prove their calibre

Remco has a very long way to go and may never win a GT
We have all seen youngsters who never live up to the hype

But the main block against Remco is he is in the era of Pogacar and Bernal

Fosse, Haytor and Pidcock , like Remco have yet to prove their calibre

 

[Gigs_98]

Don't know what I predicted, but I'll say now that Evenepoel will win the least GTs of the 3.

Feel like this is the sort of overreaction I would usually make.

I don't know. I feel like people would be a lot less let down by his performance if he hadn't started as well as he did. We were kinda hoping that his trajectory would only point upwards and now that it doesn't it's kinda disappointing. But let's not ignore that if not for Pogacar last season nobody would be expecting him to win gt's at this age anyway (remember when 23 was super young for your gt breakthrough?) and he just clearly isn't in peak condition. If anything this giro has taught us that even when not well prepared he can follow Bernal in top shape on a tough mtf, he just can't do it consistently over three weeks.

But Gigs, I hear you say, isn't this giro a sign of his weak recovery and that he doesn't do well over three weeks? And maybe the answer is yes. In a few years we might look back at this race and say we should have known at the time. But for the time being I'm gonna relax and see what he can do at a gt next year. When Froome won his first Tour he was 28, when Armstrong won his first Tour he was 27 and so was Indurain when he won his first Tour. Remco has time.

 

[Netserk]

if not for Pogacar last season

And the season before that. And Bernal.

 

[Red Rick]

Feel like this is the sort of overreaction I would usually make.

I don't know. I feel like people would be a lot less let down by his performance if he hadn't started as well as he did. We were kinda hoping that his trajectory would only point upwards and now that it doesn't it's kinda disappointing. But let's not ignore that if not for Pogacar last season nobody would be expecting him to win gt's at this age anyway (remember when 23 was super young for your gt breakthrough?) and he just clearly isn't in peak condition. If anything this giro has taught us that even when not well prepared he can follow Bernal in top shape on a tough mtf, he just can't do it consistently over three weeks.

But Gigs, I hear you say, isn't this giro a sign of his weak recovery and that he doesn't do well over three weeks? And maybe the answer is yes. In a few years we might look back at this race and say we should have known at the time. But for the time being I'm gonna relax and see what he can do at a gt next year. When Froome won his first Tour he was 28, when Armstrong won his first Tour he was 27 and so was Indurain when he won his first Tour. Remco has time.

I have actually a load of ideas about Evenepoel and quite a bit of it is kinda grasping, but I think him breaking down today is... wait for it... a positive indicator in that it could be an indicator that getting wrecked on Zoncolan has the excuse of already going weaker. The other big part of today though is that Bernal clearly shows he's not just gonna go away, so in a way without Evenepoel having done anything particularly wrong in the last year the bar for my hot-or-not take has increased a lot anyway.

But really the simplest reason is that Evenepoel would need to be on par in climbing with Bernal/Pogacar and I just don't see it based on the discrepancies in his climbing and ITTing if I'm gonna take his ITTs as a metric of there's only so much that he can increase his raw power.

 

[Cookster15]

As of today:

1. Pogacar
2. Bernal
3. Evenepoel

Even if Bernal crushes the Giro I would say the same until we see a head to head with Rog and Pog. Evenepoel is a work in progress.

 

[Leinster]

As it stands right now Pogacar has the best cards in his deck to win the most GTs. He seemingly doesn't have any weaknesses. Bernal on the other hand is very limited when it comes to TTs which will cost him against more complete riders. Evenepoel still needs to show what his full potential might be, Pogacar is already there. God help us all if he's still going to get stronger

For now, I think Ineos still have the stronger team than UAE; it remains to be seen how they use that to go about winning with a GC leader who isn't necessarily the best TTer and climber in the race, and when they know they need to make up time on their rivals in other departments.

If the result of that is Bernal heading off on Jafferau-type escape in future GTs, then I think we can all sign up.

There is also the factor of Jumbo Visma still having a couple of riders well capable of winning GTs, even if they are the wrong side of 30. If they have any sort of succession planning, and can find a young talent of their own, there could be some interesting races in the next 5 years.

 

[Escarabajo]

This Giro is a very bad reference for Remco. I would not use it to compare against Pogacar or Bernal first grand Tour.

 

[Bolder]

As it stands right now Pogacar has the best cards in his deck to win the most GTs. He seemingly doesn't have any weaknesses. Bernal on the other hand is very limited when it comes to TTs which will cost him against more complete riders. Evenepoel still needs to show what his full potential might be, Pogacar is already there. God help us all if he's still going to get stronger

But it's never been clear that Remco was going to be a GT rider. Most seemed to think that he'd be a great classics rider but because of his power to weight ratio, he could be a potential GT winner. If it turns out that he's more like a Sagan who can also win San Sebastián and an Olympic ITT, then that's a more likely career outcome than a Froome type of palmares.
Edit: not a Sagan in terms of sprinting but versatility.