Bernal vs. Pogacar vs. Evenepoel

[memyselfandI]

Vingegaard I think could be a Danish Aru. But who knows.

Bernal future is impossible to predict.

Remco will probably have a career trajectory similar to Sagan.

Vingegaard.. must see more, but very promising gc package overall. Better tt'er than Bernal.

Remco..needs to finish some GTs first before we know. And he's not Sagan by far, it's a status that is already now very hard to achieve. Needs at least 3 years winning crazy amounts of top races and at least one Words to be in the same mix. That's the reason why he is not the next Eddy. Pogacar IS in the same trajectory as Sagan, he just needs them 3 Worlds..

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Pogacar has never really been tested yet mentally . He has been too strong
Bernal & Roglic have been tested and have come back strong

I think the Arrate stage in Itzulia showed that he probably has the necessary mental strength. Or the way he dealt with his time loss in the echelon stage in his first Tour. That he slept like a baby before the La Planche TT and just destroyed the whole field. He was just a kid back then and the whole TDF circus didn't phase him at one bit.

It's true that hasn't been tested like Bernal & Roglic have, but it would be a surprise to me if he wasn't cut from the same cloth.

 

[Lequack]

A place to discuss and compare the three most talented GC riders amongst the new generation.

Bernal: the man for long climbs at high altitude
Pogacar: the man with climbing punch and a Contador attacking attitude
Evenepoel: not a man but a god ;-)

These three riders will likely rule the GTs over the next decade.

For me, who ends up on top at the end for history's sake, will largely depend on the direction that GT routes take.

For instance, I can see Pogacar winning this year's tour as it fits his talents, just as last year's fit Bernal's.

I hope for a return to some equilibrium in ITT to MTF in GTs. If so Remco will rule.

However, I am happiest that a 20, 21 and 22 year old can (again) be mentioned as favorites in pro cycling. I take this as extremely good news on many levels.

It's interesting looking back at these old treads. Vingegaard wasn't even in the mention at this point.

 

[E_F_]

lmao

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's interesting looking back at these old treads. Vingegaard wasn't even in the mention at this point.

However, after Tour 2021 it was clear that he would be a force to be reckoned with. But a lot have changed as well since 2020-2021. Bernal is not a factor anymore and Pogacar became as monster one-day racer as a stage-racer. As for Evenepoel, I definitely expected more in GTs from him up to now.

 

[Gigs_98]

There has not been a rider who consistently dominated GTs over multiple years without being a great ITTer. So unless Bernal and Pog improve significantly in that department or GTs continue to poop out horrendous routes they shouldn't really dominate.

I think Evenepoel is the only one who could potentially dominate hard, but that engine gotta translate to some great climbing performances first.

You know, you've made fun of my 2020 Pogacar takes for years but reading this stuff I think we actually had a very similar opinion on him at the time. You just weren't stupid enough to be bullish about it.

 

[YavorD]

And now there's me, shaking my head remembering that Bernal is actually younger than Vingegaard.

 

[Netserk]

You know, you've made fun of my 2020 Pogacar takes for years but reading this stuff I think we actually had a very similar opinion on him at the time. You just weren't stupid enough to be bullish about it.

"There has not been a rider who consistently dominated GTs over multiple years without being a great ITTer. So unless Bernal and Pog improve significantly in that department or GTs continue to poop out horrendous routes they shouldn't really dominate."

I think Pogi improved significantly in ITTs since that post. Certainly enough to be called a great TT'er as he won the first two ITTs he rode in the Tour afterwards (btw, he won an ITT in all Tours that he won and failed to do so in all Tours that he lost).

All of the of Big 4 now are great TT'ers, and I doubt that someone who TTs on the level of Bernal will dominate GTs over multiple years in the future. Not necessarily because ITTs will be all that important, but because massive power will also translate to great ITTs.

 

[Red Rick]

You know, you've made fun of my 2020 Pogacar takes for years but reading this stuff I think we actually had a very similar opinion on him at the time. You just weren't stupid enough to be bullish about it.

Haven't reread the thread butI was mainly very bearish on Bernal because he was basically a pure climber and I didn't even rate him as the best one. In hindsight there was a single red flat for Pogacar becoming what he's become and that's stage 20 of the 2019 Vuelta.

Also, pretty sure the "Pog overrated" thing I memed was from later in 2020, maybe during or after the Dauphine when he got spanked on Col de Porte.

 

[Gigs_98]

"There has not been a rider who consistently dominated GTs over multiple years without being a great ITTer. So unless Bernal and Pog improve significantly in that department or GTs continue to poop out horrendous routes they shouldn't really dominate."

I think Pogi improved significantly in ITTs since that post. Certainly enough to be called a great TT'er as he won the first two ITTs he rode in the Tour afterwards (btw, he won an ITT in all Tours that he won and failed to do so in all Tours that he lost).

All of the of Big 4 now are great TT'ers, and I doubt that someone who TTs on the level of Bernal will dominate GTs over multiple years in the future. Not necessarily because ITTs will be all that important, but because massive power will also translate to great ITTs.

Yeah I agree with that part. But my whole thing back then was that I saw Pogacar as yet another super young lightweight climber while the guys who dominate GTs essentially always have skills I did not expect him to have, like TTing and surving flat stages very well. Ironically those exact things are now what we see as big strengths of him. But my mistake was not to wrongly value what makes a great GT rider, it was to completely mis-evaluate Pogacar. Now I might have mis-evaluated him much worse than @Red Rick but I'm pretty sure he did not expect Pogacar to have those skills either otherwise his comment would have been phrased very differently.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah I agree with that part. But my whole thing back then was that I saw Pogacar as yet another super young lightweight climber while the guys who dominate GTs essentially always have skills I did not expect him to have, like TTing and surving flat stages very well. Ironically those exact things are now what we see as big strengths of him. But my mistake was not to wrongly value what makes a great GT rider, it was to completely mis-evaluate Pogacar. Now I might have mis-evaluated him much worse than @Red Rick but I'm pretty sure he did not expect Pogacar to have those skills either otherwise his comment would have been phrased very differently.

It was early 2020, when we still thought of Froome as an archetype for a dominant GT rider and before we realised "just do 30 watts more than everyone else" was a strategy

Old school GT riders were so stupid in hindsight.

 

[Netserk]

With the benefit of hindsight, his results in 2019 and the context of them made it much more likely for him to become a great TTer (at least comparable to Contador). Some even had the correct read of him in that regard in 2019. I think that I too underrated his ITT before the 2020 Tour though.

 

[Netserk]

Another thing to take in to account is that the regulations changed around that time, allowing more of a praying mantis position than previously.

 

[Cycling111]

Pogacar's performance at Vuelta was tremendously underestimated. The hardest 3 mountain stages being roockie and 40 km long-distance attack before 2020, when they weren't as common in GT.

Yeah I agree with that part. But my whole thing back then was that I saw Pogacar as yet another super young lightweight climber while the guys who dominate GTs essentially always have skills I did not expect him to have, like TTing and surving flat stages very well. Ironically those exact things are now what we see as big strengths of him. But my mistake was not to wrongly value what makes a great GT rider, it was to completely mis-evaluate Pogacar. Now I might have mis-evaluated him much worse than @Red Rick but I'm pretty sure he did not expect Pogacar to have those skills either otherwise his comment would have been phrased very differently.

Pogacar is the heaviest of the three riders on the last TDF podium.

He's not as heavy as Merckx, but he's physically more similar to Eddy than to Vingegaard, for example. That's why he's as good as him in the classics. Merckx, being heavier, was a better sprinter and somewhat less dominant on the climbs.

I'd like to know Pogacar's weight at the 2019 Vuelta.
He was a heavier rider. Also in the 2020 Tour

 

[Tim Cahill]

2019, the halcyon days, the other two will win far more races but Bernal will always have the streets.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916937712684380551

Giro - Carapaz
Tour - Bernal
Vuelta - Roglic

MSR - Alaphilippe
Flanders - Bettiol
Roubaix - Gilbert
LBL - Fuglsang
Lombardy - Mollema(!!!!)

WCRR - Pedersen
WCTT - Dennis

 

[Netserk]

Pogacar's performance at Vuelta was tremendously underestimated. 40 km long-distance attack before 2020, when they weren't as common in GT.


Pogacar is the heaviest of the three riders on the last TDF podium.

He's not as heavy as Merckx, but he's physically more similar to Eddy than to Vingegaard, for example. That's why he's as good as him in the classics. Merckx, being heavier, was a better sprinter and somewhat less dominant on the climbs.

I'd like to know Pogacar's weight at the 2019 Vuelta.
He was a heavier rider. Also in the 2020 Tour

Has there ever been an uglier combination of socks and shoes?

 

[Cookster15]

I still can't agree with this....

Not necessarily. His results on high altitude aren't better than on low altitude, except if you only look at the Tour he won, in which case I call selection bias.

Its all academic now since his 2022 crash wrecked his career but the evidence Bernal was best at over 2,000 metres seemed overwhelming in the Tour he won. The 3rd week that year had the most km at over 2,000 metres that I can recall. He won the Tour on the Col de l'Iseran (2,758metres).

Higher altitude also why Bernal was better in the 3rd week Alps than in the Pyrenees of that year.

And not sure how you can call it selection bias. Most riders of Bernal's strengths target the Tour de France not other races.

That people born at high altitude have an advantage at high altitude is nothing new. Kenyan marathon runners became feared for the same reason.

The reasons why Kenyans always win marathons lie in one region

 

[Red Rick]

The reasons why Kenyans always win marathons lie in one region

Yeah, and plottwist, it ain't altitude. They're not adapted for oxygen consumption, they're adapted for running efficiency.

 

[Pogacsa]

It is difficult to assess Kenyan runners these days, given the stupendous numbers failing tests that we can only discuss in The Clinic

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar was way better than Bernal in TTs when he was young. You don't win Volta ao Algarve without a pretty decent TT.

 

[Davesta]

Its all academic now since his 2022 crash wrecked his career but the evidence Bernal was best at over 2,000 metres seemed overwhelming in the Tour he won. The 3rd week that year had the most km at over 2,000 metres that I can recall. He won the Tour on the Col de l'Iseran (2,758metres).

Can we really say that he won it on the Iseran, when the race was still in flux at the time the race was stopped and times taken?
Ok he had a 1min gap at the top, but how much of that was altitude prowess compared to his competitors, and how much was it other competitors keeping their powder dry until the final climb... there's a fair chance that the gap could've been closed or lessened on the climb to Tignes... we'll never know...

Ok, he put a bit of time into others on the Galibier stage, but equally he didn't do so on Val Thorens...

 

[Cookster15]

Can we really say that he won it on the Iseran, when the race was still in flux at the time the race was stopped and times taken?
Ok he had a 1min gap at the top, but how much of that was altitude prowess compared to his competitors, and how much was it other competitors keeping their powder dry until the final climb... there's a fair chance that the gap could've been closed or lessened on the climb to Tignes... we'll never know...

Ok, he put a bit of time into others on the Galibier stage, but equally he didn't do so on Val Thorens...

Who was going to chase him down on Tignes? Not Alaphillipe or Thomas that’s for sure. Based upon what happened on Iseran the gap would have extended even further on Tignes.

Val Thorens was the following day, also at altitude. Bernal finished same time as Thomas and 3 minutes ahead of JA who completely cracked. That should tell you something about the energy JA expended the day before on Iseran.

 

[Cookster15]

Yeah, and plottwist, it ain't altitude. They're not adapted for oxygen consumption, they're adapted for running efficiency.

No argument that Kenyans and Ethiopians have great running efficiency. But did you read the article I linked? Seems these guys all come from a small region at 8,000ft.

And in cycling Colombians born and raised at a similar altitude have been revered since the days of Luis Herrera.

Sure being born at altitude isn’t the be and end all of being better at altitude but pretty sure there are research papers that say it helps all else being equal.

 

[Cookster15]

It is difficult to assess Kenyan runners these days, given the stupendous numbers failing tests that we can only discuss in The Clinic

Kenyans have been revered runners for decades. But I do agree that perhaps why they have lowered the marathon record to barely 2 hours flat might best be discussed in The Clinic.

 

[AmRacer]

Kenyans have been revered runners for decades. But I do agree that perhaps why they have lowered the marathon record to barely 2 hours flat might best be discussed in The Clinic.

👞
And Norwegian athletes seems to run pretty fast too, not marathon though.