Better GT rider in their primes: Evans vs Nibali

[Libertine Seguros]

I would say that at the moment Evans has a better TDF record than Nibali, it really depends how you rate the Giro and Vuelta in relation to the tour, the tour as a rule is far more competitive due to it being the focus of most GC riders season

The Tour is also slightly different in characteristic style and more suited to Evans, you would say, than the Giro or Vuelta, which is borne out in the results (notwithstanding that Evans didn't have a genuine tilt at the Giro between 25 and 33 and each attempt at La Vuelta was off the back of the Tour, with his best result being in 2009 when his Tour bid was derailed early and he wasn't so tired when he got to La Vuelta).

I mean, yes, you'd say 1st + 2nd + 2nd trumps 1st + 3rd + 7th as best results, but whose GT record would you rather have?

Who was the more talented rider is a difficult question to answer, but who has the better GT record is much easier: Nibali does. The reason for this is that Evans' focus on the Tour and late blooming in terms of racing style meant he nearly missed out on the palmarès his talent ought to have merited. Nibali has maximised his opportunities. Yes, he won the Vuelta mainly as Antón crashed out. Yes, he won a Tour where Contador and Froome both crashed out. But Evans' Tour win was characterized by a number of contenders crashing out in the first half of the race, and we don't consider his Tour win to be diminished by that.

The other question is, what is Cuddles' "prime"? We can probably agree 2013-14 has been the strongest Nibali has been to date, but when was Cuddles' peak? In terms of physical prowess, I'd argue '07-'09, but in terms of results '09-'11. Because of that change in his racing style, he has not only prolonged his top level career, but made questions like this much harder to answer.

 

[Luigi_Max]

Funny stuff....
Evans won against a 100% in form and untired Contador?

Of course not, Contador is a better GT rider than Evans and Nibali, I really doubt anyone would dispute that. Contador is not as good these days as he was back then. If Contador had not raced the 2011 Giro I have little doubt he would have won the 2011 tour, although he would then have been stripped of winning it.

Anyway, we're comparing Evans' peak, 2007+2011 vs Nibali's peak, 2014 (IMO he wasn't weaker at the Giro 13, but ok). So Evans even in his prime was still beaten and arrived second... says it all. Nibali clearly better, not even close. Evans in his prime would have competed for second place against Péraud in the Tour 14, not against Nibali.

2011 Peraud finished 9th, 10'11" seconds behind Evans.
2014 Peraud finished 2nd, 7'37" seconds behind Nibali.
So Evans actually beat Peraud by more in 2011 than Nibali did in 2014.
However it is a rather stupid to compare those things directly, too many variables to consider.
Evans at his best was clearly better than Peraud, I have no doubt Evans at his peak would have finished ahead of Peraud. So would the 2011 versions of the Schlecks and Contador. Peraud, even with his performance this year, is just another level below the true GT contenders like Contador, Schlecks, Froome, Basso, Nibali and Evans at their best. It might have been a different story with Peraud if he had raced his entire career on the road instead of starting in his 30s after doing mountain biking.

 

[Luigi_Max]

The Tour is also slightly different in characteristic style and more suited to Evans, you would say, than the Giro or Vuelta, which is borne out in the results (notwithstanding that Evans didn't have a genuine tilt at the Giro between 25 and 33 and each attempt at La Vuelta was off the back of the Tour, with his best result being in 2009 when his Tour bid was derailed early and he wasn't so tired when he got to La Vuelta).

I mean, yes, you'd say 1st + 2nd + 2nd trumps 1st + 3rd + 7th as best results, but whose GT record would you rather have?

Who was the more talented rider is a difficult question to answer, but who has the better GT record is much easier: Nibali does. The reason for this is that Evans' focus on the Tour and late blooming in terms of racing style meant he nearly missed out on the palmarès his talent ought to have merited. Nibali has maximised his opportunities. Yes, he won the Vuelta mainly as Antón crashed out. Yes, he won a Tour where Contador and Froome both crashed out. But Evans' Tour win was characterized by a number of contenders crashing out in the first half of the race, and we don't consider his Tour win to be diminished by that.

The other question is, what is Cuddles' "prime"? We can probably agree 2013-14 has been the strongest Nibali has been to date, but when was Cuddles' peak? In terms of physical prowess, I'd argue '07-'09, but in terms of results '09-'11. Because of that change in his racing style, he has not only prolonged his top level career, but made questions like this much harder to answer.

Some of the reason for his late development was his time as a mountain biker. Also he did nothing in 2003-4 after a strong debut in the 2002 Giro while he was at Telekom. I am not really up for the reason for this. However this means he was already 28 in 2005 when he raced his first Tour and finished 8th.

 

[Luigi_Max]

How would the 2014 Nibali have gone in the 2007 Tour?

 

[Walkman]

Funny stuff....
Evans won against a 100% in form and untired Contador?
Anyway, we're comparing Evans' peak, 2007+2011 vs Nibali's peak, 2014 (IMO he wasn't weaker at the Giro 13, but ok). So Evans even in his prime was still beaten and arrived second... says it all. Nibali clearly better, not even close. Evans in his prime would have competed for second place against Péraud in the Tour 14, not against Nibali.

Evans in his prime did beat Péraud by over 10 minutes.

Yeah, as you said, funny stuff right there.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Evans in his prime vs Péraud NOT in his prime...
Do we need to discuss when Pérauds prime was?

Or we could be even more ridiculous and say that Nibali beat Voeckler by more than Evans did....

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

How would the 2014 Nibali have gone in the 2007 Tour?

2014 Nibali wouldn't hit the top 50 of the 07 toiur

 

[Luigi_Max]

Evans in his prime vs Péraud NOT in his prime...
Do we need to discuss when Pérauds prime was?

Or we could be even more ridiculous and say that Nibali beat Voeckler by more than Evans did....

Peraud's physical best was probably before he even started racing on the road at age 33. He probably raced his best at this tour because he got the sniff of a once in a career opportunity and took it. Still he is nowhere near as good as Evans was at his best, he might have lost by 5 minutes not 10 minutes.
He might have been an absolute champion on the road if he had raced his whole career on the road. It is a bit more difficult case to judge due to his very late change over to racing on the road.

 

[Walkman]

to being twice the gt rider. Doesn't mean that he actually rides with twice the amount watts as Evans. It's more like a figure of speech that takes into account placements in gts combined with how dominant he was. Last years giro and this years tour are in my opinion lightyears ahead of Evans tour win in 11. add to that a "lucky" Vuelta and his palamares are >>>>>> over Evans + the dominant way he won 2 of them also puts him >>>> over Evans. I will say though, that if Evasn was in his 11 form, and we got a tour with 150km ITT and 1 mountainstage, he might have a shot again Nibbles.
So fine. Nibbles are lightyears ahead of Evans, but he isnt "twice" the rider.
Happy?

This really bugs me. Many people have stated in this thread that Nibali dominated this and that and using that as an argument. So let's take a look who did Nibali really dominate?


Vuelta a España 2010:

Frirst of all. Igor Anton was leading the race with 45 seconds ahead of Nibali before he crashed out in the 14th stage. He had also won two stages in the early stage of the race and was the main favorite to win.

Moving on. The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Peter Velits
3. Joaquim Rodríguez


Peter Velits who had done two grand tour before the Vuelta, the 2008 and 2009 Tours, and placed 57th and 30th respectively. Hardly impressive. After this he has done three more Tours, 2011-2013, placing 18, 27, 25.

Yeah, yeah, you think, but what about Joaquim Rodríguez? He is an elite GC-rider and must have been hard to beat, right? Rodríguez most definitely is elite but did ride the Tour in 2010, placing 7th and was most likely suffering from fatigue during the Vuelta, hence being far from top shape.


Giro d'Italia 2013:

The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Rigoberto uran
3. Cadel Evans

Sure, the podium looks impressive, but keep in mind, at this point Uran had only manage a 7th place at the 2012 Giro as his best GC-result. Before the 2012 Giro he had done a total of four grand tours, and never placing top-20.


Tour de France 2014:

The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Jean-Christophe Péraud
3. Thibaut Pinot

Péraud, who is 37 years old and had done four GT's before this years Tour and only one finished top-10, which was in 2011. This may sound impressive, but remember that many of the top-10 candidates did crash out and abandoned the race. Horner, Vino, Brajkovič and Wiggins to name few.

Thibaut Pinot, had done three grand tour before this Tour with a best result of a 7th place at the 2013 Vuelta.


So to summarize, during Nibalis three GT wins, he did beat only one rider (excluding Cadel) who previously had been on the podium on a grand Tour. Now compare that competition to the one Cadel has faced; Contador, Leipheimer, Sastre, Menchov, Schlecks, Valverde and Sánchez. All riders have placed on the podium in multiple grand tours.

 

[maxmartin]

This really bugs me. Many people have stated in this thread that Nibali dominated this and that and using that as an argument. So let's take a look who did Nibali really dominate?


Vuelta a España 2010:

Frirst of all. Igor Anton was leading the race with 45 seconds ahead of Nibali before he crashed out in the 14th stage. He had also won two stages in the early stage of the race and was the main favorite to win.

Moving on. The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Peter Velits
3. Joaquim Rodríguez


Peter Velits who had done two grand tour before the Vuelta, the 2008 and 2009 Tours, and placed 57th and 30th respectively. Hardly impressive. After this he has done three more Tours, 2011-2013, placing 18, 27, 25.

Yeah, yeah, you think, but what about Joaquim Rodríguez? He is an elite GC-rider and must have been hard to beat, right? Rodríguez most definitely is elite but did ride the Tour in 2010, placing 7th and was most likely suffering from fatigue during the Vuelta, hence being far from top shape.


Giro d'Italia 2013:

The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Rigoberto uran
3. Cadel Evans

Sure, the podium looks impressive, but keep in mind, at this point Uran had only manage a 7th place at the 2012 Giro as his best GC-result. Before the 2012 Giro he had done a total of four grand tours, and never placing top-20.


Tour de France 2014:

The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Jean-Christophe Péraud
3. Thibaut Pinot

Péraud, who is 37 years old and had done four GT's before this years Tour and only one finished top-10, which was in 2011. This may sound impressive, but remember that many of the top-10 candidates did crash out and abandoned the race. Horner, Vino, Brajkovič and Wiggins to name few.

Thibaut Pinot, had done three grand tour before this Tour with a best result of a 7th place at the 2013 Vuelta.


So to summarize, during Nibalis three GT wins, he did beat only one rider (excluding Cadel) who previously had been on the podium on a grand Tour. Now compare that competition to the one Cadel has faced; Contador, Leipheimer, Sastre, Menchov, Schlecks, Valverde and Sánchez. All riders have placed on the podium in multiple grand tours.

Dude, you are asking something can't be proven by the fact, then deal with it when people (and seems like majority people) have different opinions than yours.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

This really bugs me. Many people have stated in this thread that Nibali dominated this and that and using that as an argument. So let's take a look who did Nibali really dominate?


Vuelta a España 2010:

Frirst of all. Igor Anton was leading the race with 45 seconds ahead of Nibali before he crashed out in the 14th stage. He had also won two stages in the early stage of the race and was the main favorite to win.

Moving on. The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Peter Velits
3. Joaquim Rodríguez


Peter Velits who had done two grand tour before the Vuelta, the 2008 and 2009 Tours, and placed 57th and 30th respectively. Hardly impressive. After this he has done three more Tours, 2011-2013, placing 18, 27, 25.

Yeah, yeah, you think, but what about Joaquim Rodríguez? He is an elite GC-rider and must have been hard to beat, right? Rodríguez most definitely is elite but did ride the Tour in 2010, placing 7th and was most likely suffering from fatigue during the Vuelta, hence being far from top shape.


Giro d'Italia 2013:

The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Rigoberto uran
3. Cadel Evans

Sure, the podium looks impressive, but keep in mind, at this point Uran had only manage a 7th place at the 2012 Giro as his best GC-result. Before the 2012 Giro he had done a total of four grand tours, and never placing top-20.


Tour de France 2014:

The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Jean-Christophe Péraud
3. Thibaut Pinot

Péraud, who is 37 years old and had done four GT's before this years Tour and only one finished top-10, which was in 2011. This may sound impressive, but remember that many of the top-10 candidates did crash out and abandoned the race. Horner, Vino, Brajkovič and Wiggins to name few.

Thibaut Pinot, had done three grand tour before this Tour with a best result of a 7th place at the 2013 Vuelta.


So to summarize, during Nibalis three GT wins, he did beat only one rider (excluding Cadel) who previously had been on the podium on a grand Tour. Now compare that competition to the one Cadel has faced; Contador, Leipheimer, Sastre, Menchov, Schlecks, Valverde and Sánchez. All riders have placed on the podium in multiple grand tours.

Yes the Vuelta 10 was meh... Noone will disagree with you.

Giro 13 was a race where pretty much every important stage was ruined by bad weather, but those stages that were raced he was in full controll, and totally dominant.

Tour 14
top 10:
Nibali - Totally dominant
Peraud - Yes, a big suprise
Pinot - One of the biggest climbing talents in the world now reached an age were he isn't a kid no more. a top 5 candidate almost no matter the competition.
Valverde - ****ings Valvede. 35 years of age, but still Valverde. this is not "no oposition"
Van Garderen - a very strong rider.
Bardet - Huge climbing talent
Konig - somewhat of a suprise
Zubelida - Old, but Zubeldia is sly as a ninjafox
Ten Dam - Strong rider
Mollema - Strong rider

This is a strong top 10 for any gt, and it was a TOTAL domination

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Giro d'Italia 2013:

The podium looked like this:

1. Vincenzo Nibali
2. Rigoberto uran
3. Cadel Evans

Sure, the podium looks impressive, but keep in mind, at this point Uran had only manage a 7th place at the 2012 Giro as his best GC-result. Before the 2012 Giro he had done a total of four grand tours, and never placing top-20.

2007:

1. A. Contador
2. C. Evans 23"
3. L. Leipheimer 31"
Sure, looks impressive, all those great riders all that close, but keep in mind, at this point Contador had only managed a 31st place in the 2005, the only GT he rode. Evans beat Leipheimer, whose best place in a GT was 3rd in the Vuelta in 2001, which he never managed to confirm, going for an impressive series of 8, DNF, 9, 6, 12 from 2002-2006 in the TdF.

 

[Walkman]

Dude, you are asking something can't be proven by the fact, then deal with it when people (and seems like majority people) have different opinions than yours.

I am not angry with any poster. I respect everyones opinion but I think the "domination argument" is really weak. I like to debate the issue, hence I started this thread and now making my case at the thread grows.

 

[Walkman]

2007:

1. A. Contador
2. C. Evans 23"
3. L. Leipheimer 31"
Sure, looks impressive, all those great riders all that close, but keep in mind, at this point Contador had only managed a 31st place in the 2005, the only GT he rode. Evans beat Leipheimer, whose best place in a GT was 3rd in the Vuelta in 2001, which he never managed to confirm, going for an impressive series of 8, DNF, 9, 6, 12 from 2002-2006 in the TdF.

But Contador (and Rasmussen) did put up numbers far beyond anything we have seen it the last years so his previous accomplishments are irrelevant. And I am not sure what you argument about Levi is, seeing how he did manage a podium at the 2001 Vuelta and later was top-10 in the TdF three times before the 2007 edition. What's your point here? Those are some really good results.

 

[retzko]

Strange that people talk about the better competition fot Evans... i mean Andy Scleck. the guy who rode grupetto all year and then turns in a world class climber for 3 weeks in july. In my opinion Andy schleck without the '' right"' preparation is max a top 15 rider.

It s a shame we did not see Nibali vs contador vs Froome. but in the end I think this question ll look stupid because we haven t seen the last of Nibali.

i don t even see how contador or Froome would have been able to distance nibali in the mountains whem nibali puts more the a minute on everybody else on hautacam without going full. they would be able at max to take 10 sec here and there at best.

Evans even in his prime would NEVER have been able to follow a full strenght berserk Contador or Froome. his just not that good of a climber. Overall Evans is a very good rider and better then Sastre for example because his 1 day palmares. I am sure he could have won a lot more of those races.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Walkman has also written Mosquera out of the 2010 Vuelta, Nibali beat him and he'd been top 5 of all of the previous 3 editions and at that point in time was arguably more of a genuine GT rider than J-Rod, who had a couple of top 10s backing Valverde and that 2010 Tour (he was 8th actually, benefits from the Menchov DQ).

 

[SeriousSam]

Evans even in his prime would NEVER have been able to follow a full strenght berserk Contador or Froome. his just not that good of a climber.

Neither is Nibali.

 

[Rollthedice]

Neither is Nibali.

And how do you happen to know? Was Nibali in his prime in 2011 against the overnight sensation Froome in Vuelta? Or in 2012 Tour? What about against Contador, he didn't get the chance to check him out last year or this year when Nibali is in his prime. Or maybe he is yet to reach the full potential. How would you know?

 

[Angliru]

I get it is figurative speech but it still does not apply, we are talking about who is better between two excellent GT riders. One is a bit better climber, the other is a bit better TTer. One has a far better record in amount won but that is not what this thread is about.
What is being claimed here is that Evans would not have been competitive with Nibali on his form this year. That is just totally wrong and insulting to Evans.

Not that Evans wouldn't have been competitive but who would've beat whom in their prime. It is believed by many here that Nibali in his prime is better than Evans in his in grand tours. The results of their efforts in grand tours has to be taken into account since that is what the op set as the basis for this discussion. Evans has tried multiple times to win the Vuelta and the Giro with no wins to his credit while Nibali has wins in both and matches Evans in their single Tour win. Both are resourceful riders but Nibali has shown to be more so in the grand tours. Of course the parcours will come into play and the varying g personalities of the 3 grand tours has a bearing on our determination of who would the most successful vs who and where.

 

[TANK91]

And how do you happen to know? Was Nibali in his prime in 2011 against the overnight sensation Froome in Vuelta? Or in 2012 Tour? What about against Contador, he didn't get the chance to check him out last year or this year when Nibali is in his prime. Or maybe he is yet to reach the full potential. How would you know?

And how do you no this is Nibali's prime lol? Easy assuming that when the guy's who regularly beat him did not finish, no? Nibali and Froome are same age(Froome younger i think) i would understand if Contador and Froome fans were saying Nibali is a fake champ if Froome was like 35 anad just abondoned. We do not no this is his peak atall, Peraud and Pinot were on podium. Weakest TDF for years. Just for record Nibali is far better than Evans.

 

[Luigi_Max]

Not that Evans wouldn't have been competitive but who would've beat whom in their prime. It is believed by many here that Nibali in his prime is better than Evans in his in grand tours. The results of their efforts in grand tours has to be taken into account since that is what the op set as the basis for this discussion. Evans has tried multiple times to win the Vuelta and the Giro with no wins to his credit while Nibali has wins in both and matches Evans in their single Tour win. Both are resourceful riders but Nibali has shown to be more so in the grand tours. Of course the parcours will come into play and the varying g personalities of the 3 grand tours has a bearing on our determination of who would the most successful vs who and where.

Great, you obviously did not read the claims I was arguing against and have, like Red Rick, taken my comments out of context. I have no problem with people saying Nibali would beat Evans, I have a problem with people saying that there would be no contest, that Evans would be convincingly beaten. That is simply absurd.

 

[Jspear]

If I was a mod I'd close this thread because it's so ridiculous.
Niabli is a better climber, better descender, better on the cobbles (which rarely make a difference for GC riders 'cause they aren't often raced), and isn't to far off in a tt. All in all Nibali beats Cadel as a GT rider (both with their top form.) PERIOD. END OF STORY.

 

[Luigi_Max]

If I was a mod I'd close this thread because it's so ridiculous.
Niabli is a better climber, better descender, better on the cobbles (which rarely make a difference for GC riders 'cause they aren't often raced), and isn't to far off in a tt. All in all Nibali beats Cadel as a GT rider (both with their top form.) PERIOD. END OF STORY.

We have one instance of Evans racing on cobbles and one instance of Nibali racing on cobbles. That is simply not enough data to make any judgement. They both finished 3rd on their one instance, they both rode excellently and they both gained time on rivals.

 

[Jspear]

We have one instance of Evans racing on cobbles and one instance of Nibali racing on cobbles. That is simply not enough data to make any judgement. They both finished 3rd on their one instance, they both rode excellently and they both gained time on rivals.

Was the weather the same in both instances? Nope. Does that make a big difference? Yep. So was Evans as impressive? Nope.

 

[SergeDeM]

If I see this question as "Would 2014 Nibali win the 2011 tour?" my answer is yes. I don't see enough TT in there for Cadel to overcome Nibali's advantage in the mountains.
If I see this question as "Would 2014 Nibali win the 2007 tour?" my answer is no but that was a different era and I like to think Nibali doesn't belong there.

IMO Nibali right now is too strong for the best Cuddles to handle. There are no facts to support this opinion or any other opinion that contradicts it simply because unless we somehow manage get an actual Evans 2011 vs Nibali 2014 faceoff then we will never know for sure, but if we did my money would be on Nibali.