Big Lance @ Kona 2011

[Bustedknuckle]

If he retires from Pro Cycling as planned after the 2010 season he'll be able to dedicate more time to prep for the 2011 Kona race. But I'm not sure if he'll be able to win it though. Place high maybe, but not win it.

WIN? Never. As a around 3 hour marathon runner and average swimmer, compared to guys 1-2 decades younger than him who do nothing BUT Ironman length triathlons...really don't think he will be in the top 50 let alone win.

 

[Bustedknuckle]

well, i sure hope he brings the heat. i fully realize that he is close to being middle aged, just barely scratching that barrier, but it takes that kind of time to achieve that kind of strength and with his coaches, well, Anything is Possible.

now if he had chosen triathlons over tours than wouldn't it be safe to say that with his dedication to training, that he would now have eight straight Kona championships under his belt?

i'm a big Lance fan as are many of you and i just wish him the best is all.

As a non team sport w/o all the support that professional bike racing has I really doubt anybody could win 8 Kona Ironman races. I doubt he will win his 8th TdF. There are some young guns that will kick his **** in the next TdF. He will be average in the TTs and not be able to stay with the true climbers, like Contador. I doubt he will even make the podium. We'll see if he has the stone(s) to actually finish after he finds himself way down. I doubt he will.

 

[Roadhouse]

i really enjoy how all the senior members come in just to say how their ignore list is getting full and all that crap, just brilliant. and please, seeing as how i'm ignored, you shouldn't respond cause then your rationality will only behead itself once again, just straight stupid. and i don't give two ****s who you are cause so far if that is all you have, you're not much.

anywho, some interesting perspectives on all of of this and i agree with the times by Nick777 or whomever on the swim and the bike but not the transitions. he'll move out quicker then 10 minutes, he has to. and for the run, well, yeah, that'll be the true testemant of it all but he is there or was there in Kona this past week getting a taste for it all and he's been there before so chances are that he'll be doing the full distance there on site sooner rather than later to get a full feel for what he's about to be up against.

egads, i'm starting to wonder if he's bitten off more than he can chew.? naw, he deserves his day out day, it's Big Lance Armstrong after all.

 

[Roadhouse]

As a non team sport w/o all the support that professional bike racing has I really doubt anybody could win 8 Kona Ironman races. I doubt he will win his 8th TdF. There are some young guns that will kick his **** in the next TdF. He will be average in the TTs and not be able to stay with the true climbers, like Contador. I doubt he will even make the podium. We'll see if he has the stone(s) to actually finish after he finds himself way down. I doubt he will.

i see your point but what about the stones to continue living, beating death? people seem to forget that it's really not about the bike and him and him alone have that going for him so it's not about just a triathlon or a tour. that's how it transfers over in my eyes at least and i do believe he's well above any else proven that he has stones.....the size of Texas.

eh, we'll see.

 

[Hugh Januss]

i see your point but what about the stones to continue living, beating death? people seem to forget that it's really not about the bike and him and him alone have that going for him so it's not about just a triathlon or a tour. that's how it transfers over in my eyes at least and i do believe he's well above any else proven that he has stones.....the size of Texas.

eh, we'll see.

Actually he has a stone.

 

[krebs303]

but he is there or was there in Kona this past week getting a taste for it all and he's been there before so chances are that he'll be doing the full distance there on site sooner rather than later to get a full feel for what he's about to be up against.

Do you really think anyone actually does ..........ah what's the use.

 

[BroDeal]

Anyone get the feeling that there is a boatload of money to be made by producing Lance Armstrong dolls--err, action figures-for certain people to play with?

 

[Nick777]

i really enjoy how all the senior members come in just to say how their ignore list is getting full and all that crap, just brilliant. and please, seeing as how i'm ignored, you shouldn't respond cause then your rationality will only behead itself once again, just straight stupid. and i don't give two ****s who you are cause so far if that is all you have, you're not much.

anywho, some interesting perspectives on all of of this and i agree with the times by Nick777 or whomever on the swim and the bike but not the transitions. he'll move out quicker then 10 minutes, he has to. and for the run, well, yeah, that'll be the true testemant of it all but he is there or was there in Kona this past week getting a taste for it all and he's been there before so chances are that he'll be doing the full distance there on site sooner rather than later to get a full feel for what he's about to be up against.

egads, i'm starting to wonder if he's bitten off more than he can chew.? naw, he deserves his day out day, it's Big Lance Armstrong after all.

That's 10 minutes total for both transitions - ie 5 mins each - that includes getting from the water to his bike, sunscreen, do his hair, make up etc, put on the long Nike socks etc etc.. you get my point

 

[Roadhouse]

That's 10 minutes total for both transitions - ie 5 mins each - that includes getting from the water to his bike, sunscreen, do his hair, make up etc, put on the long Nike socks etc etc.. you get my point

make up? make up? hmppff, not cool. don't make me capitalize my words in his defense, nick, cause i will and it won't be pertty.

anywho, in case you aren't aware of it uv sports is holding an all day Kona coverage right now, on 2007 right now, if you're interested.

 

[Bustedknuckle]

i see your point but what about the stones to continue living, beating death? people seem to forget that it's really not about the bike and him and him alone have that going for him so it's not about just a triathlon or a tour. that's how it transfers over in my eyes at least and i do believe he's well above any else proven that he has stones.....the size of Texas.

eh, we'll see.

Sigh......roll eyes...Lance has beaten cancer, with the help of scads of MDs and pharmacuticals. Lance does do wonderful things for cancer treatment and prevention BUT I know people who have overcome larger obstacles(missing limbs, for instance) and they have BIG hearts also but ya either got it or ya don't, when it comes to a 40 yr old winning a TdF or a Kona Ironman race....I think he is past his prime, will be embarrassed at the TdF when he sees how he stacks up next to Schleck boys and Contador.

 

[Slayer]

I wonder if he has improved on his times on this climb over last year's pre season training.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cM2yA4BRIkc&NR=1

 

[L29205]

Seriously, he will be lucky to finish in the top five of his age group much less overall (that still puts him the top 75 which is a great finish).

It is a different type of race. What you bring form cycling is of limited benefit. You have to not lose the race in the water, you have to not lose the race on the bike and hope some doesn't out run you.

And seriously a 2:50 in Boston, that was the starting time to get into the race in the 80's at 40 years old.

 

[stephens]

Who knows. Maybe he's one of those guys who will never run "fast," but can run that time even after the swim and bike. If so, he'll do fine for an old man.

 

[Slayer]

Armstrong is still in Kona...and now he is swollowing fermometers...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwQ45tzoGRI

 

[amp300]

Yet you ignored all the triathletes who are quality with your naive assertions. This isn't personal attack, but as someone who follows both sports (triathlon is the better sport IMO) I know what is needed to perform. Lance cannot do it. Swordsman explained part of it. Lance will make maybe 5 minutes, 10 if I'm being generous on the rest of the field on the bike (which is highly debatable). This is still not enough to negate his lack of swimming form and his below average running style.

Technique is not really important if you have a solid engine (VO2 max) in running. But it helps. We know Lance has a very high VO2max, but look at his marathon times. They were nothing special. Top 500 and 800 at Boston and New York, for the lone event. Please! As a fan perhaps you overlooked that. He should have done better, considering all the documentaries and spin spread to tell the world how physically superior he is. Lance's running technique is very poor. One of the rumours that was doing laps was that he stopped running because he was picking up injuries. Shin splints to be exact. The main cause. **** poor running technique. He'll bleed time in the marathon leg, which is ironically the most important.

Regarding my first sentence, triathlon has many people who dedicate their efforts and time to the four disciplines. They deserve their time in the sun. Eveyone knows Lance is an attention *****. He should stay away, regardless of some of the pro's saying his face would make a nice change (ie: rake in more vainity poaching sponsors). Triathlon does not need Lance. Besides, after Contador is finished with him this year, I doubt there will be much of your champ left. Getting his **** spanked at Kona will only serve to further dampen his mood.

great post

 

[kurtinsc]

Seriously, he will be lucky to finish in the top five of his age group much less overall (that still puts him the top 75 which is a great finish).

It is a different type of race. What you bring form cycling is of limited benefit. You have to not lose the race in the water, you have to not lose the race on the bike and hope some doesn't out run you.

And seriously a 2:50 in Boston, that was the starting time to get into the race in the 80's at 40 years old.

I think this is a fair estimate:

Swim leg: 1 hour and 20 minutes. The top guys do it in 50 minutes... that time would be about 200th on the swim overall. Lance actually has an age group swimming background, so I imagine he'd have a decent stroke at least... it's not like he'd be struggling to learn basic technique.

Bike Leg estimate - 4 hours and 20 minutes. That's giving him 5 minutes on Chris Lieto, the fastest cyclist in the race.

Run Leg - 3 hours and 20 minutes. He did a 2:50 in Boston... but I"m adding 30 minutes to that due to all the other exercise he'd have to do first. That's around 200th in the run leg this past year.

Now add on 10 minutes for the transitions. (top guys take 3-4 minutes at the transitions combined)

Total estimated time:

9 hours and 10 minutes (and I think that's being a little conservative if he really put effort into it). That would put him about 30th in the professional division, 4th i the 35-39 age group division and 2nd in the 40-44 age group division. Overall, that would make him the 45th person to cross the line.

If he could shave 5 minutes each off the swim and run from my estimate, he'd cross the line in 31st.

If he could shave 10 minutes off each... he could finish 20th.


I think 8:50 is pretty much the limit for him... and that's with some serious training toward that goal. That would be slightly better then the womens champ (Chrissy Wellington)... but she finished 23rd overall.

The only way Lance could seriously compete is if his swimming is actually very good and his run didn't decrease a ton due to fatigue from the bike and swim. If Lance could throw in a 55 minute swim... he'd have a chance.

55 minutes on the swim
4:20 on the bike
3:00 on the run
5 minutes transitions...

would equal 8:20... the time that won it this past year.


Somehow I doubt that's really in range for him. But I COULD imagine a scenario where he was leading the race coming off the bike... then finished 20th or worse due to a dismal run.

 

[Roadhouse]

I'm beginning to believe that he's only going after the bike record.

 

[Nick777]

I think this is a fair estimate:

Swim leg: 1 hour and 20 minutes. The top guys do it in 50 minutes... that time would be about 200th on the swim overall. Lance actually has an age group swimming background, so I imagine he'd have a decent stroke at least... it's not like he'd be struggling to learn basic technique.

Bike Leg estimate - 4 hours and 20 minutes. That's giving him 5 minutes on Chris Lieto, the fastest cyclist in the race.

Run Leg - 3 hours and 20 minutes. He did a 2:50 in Boston... but I"m adding 30 minutes to that due to all the other exercise he'd have to do first. That's around 200th in the run leg this past year.

Now add on 10 minutes for the transitions. (top guys take 3-4 minutes at the transitions combined)

Total estimated time:

9 hours and 10 minutes (and I think that's being a little conservative if he really put effort into it). That would put him about 30th in the professional division, 4th i the 35-39 age group division and 2nd in the 40-44 age group division. Overall, that would make him the 45th person to cross the line.

If he could shave 5 minutes each off the swim and run from my estimate, he'd cross the line in 31st.

If he could shave 10 minutes off each... he could finish 20th.


I think 8:50 is pretty much the limit for him... and that's with some serious training toward that goal. That would be slightly better then the womens champ (Chrissy Wellington)... but she finished 23rd overall.

The only way Lance could seriously compete is if his swimming is actually very good and his run didn't decrease a ton due to fatigue from the bike and swim. If Lance could throw in a 55 minute swim... he'd have a chance.

55 minutes on the swim
4:20 on the bike
3:00 on the run
5 minutes transitions...

would equal 8:20... the time that won it this past year.


Somehow I doubt that's really in range for him. But I COULD imagine a scenario where he was leading the race coming off the bike... then finished 20th or worse due to a dismal run.

9.10 is a similar overall time that I predicted, but there is no way Lance does 1.20 for the swim.. Unless conditions are atrocious, he should come out in around 1 hour. For a guy that specialized in 1500's when he was a teenager, that pace would be a walk in the park, even with only a month's swimming under his belt.
It's the last half of the run that will get him.

 

[karlboss]

anyone got a swim time from 26 years ago?

 

[BroDeal]

I'm beginning to believe that he's only going after the bike record.

If so and he follows usual his methods then he will have his buddies enter so he can draft them in the swim. They will go at a leasurely pace. He will then do the bike leg and drop out of the race before the run. Fanboys everywhere will then fall all over themselves while mooning about a brilliant strategy.

 

[krebs303]

anyone got a swim time from 26 years ago?

Yeah I did a 00:57 100m

 

[L29205]

If so and he follows usual his methods then he will have his buddies enter so he can draft them in the swim. They will go at a leasurely pace. He will then do the bike leg and drop out of the race before the run. Fanboys everywhere will then fall all over themselves while mooning about a brilliant strategy.

Could be but I think unlikely. First, he will probably get 15 minutes of the NBC broadcast devoted to him in the form of interviews. Secondly, he will have a camera on him the entire time. Finally, I think it would be too embarrassing if it is very apparent that is his goal and he doesn't get.

Too much of a media wh0re to risk it. A nice simple finish will be his goal combined with plenty of camera time.

 

[hscoach2]

If so and he follows usual his methods then he will have his buddies enter so he can draft them in the swim. They will go at a leasurely pace. He will then do the bike leg and drop out of the race before the run. Fanboys everywhere will then fall all over themselves while mooning about a brilliant strategy.

Would the bike leg record even count if he doesn't finish? (or should it?)

 

[Roadhouse]

"Look!!!It's a bird, No!!It's a plane!!! No!!! It's Big Lance Armstrong in Kona."

3:22 in the vid and not even full effort.

and now i stand corrected, he is gonna dominate the bike course record by over fifteen minutes, more like twenty, and no one will catch him. Big Lance is gonna win Kona his first time out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66-_sSr_BDg

 

[karlboss]

"Look!!!It's a bird, No!!It's a plane!!! No!!! It's Big Lance Armstrong in Kona."

3:22 in the vid and not even full effort.

and now i stand corrected, he is gonna dominate the bike course record by over fifteen minutes, more like twenty, and no one will catch him. Big Lance is gonna win Kona his first time out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66-_sSr_BDg

Well if he wants a shot at winning, he'll need a half hour on the bike at least.